Will the D'Alembert produce a win on a 50/50 game of chance?
Quote: gr8playerNo, I don't mind, AxiomOfChoice, I've answered countless questions in these forums.
So, here goes:
1.) Tough question....lifetime sessions?....20,000?....more?
2.) No. In fact, I'd sooner "no-bet" into the "untrendable anomaly" shoes. I get enough good ones so that I'm more than comfortable discarding the bad ones.
3.) I never, ever re-buy. Evah....
4.) Sorry, AxiomOfChoice, I do not understand the "Do you bank?" question. I hope you're not confusing Bac with Chemin-de-fer.
Considering I quoted Face's post, and not yours, I wonder why you think that I was asking you...
Quote: gr8playerOh no, you didn't, AxiomOfChoice! Sorry, my friend, but you can't have it both ways......
....I posted about my strike rates and you said, in a nutshell, "impossible".....
....but now you're posting that it is, in fact, doable.
No, no, no....I call a flag on that play. C'mon, man...pick a side....
I said that over 53% was impossible.
Over 50%, on the other hand, is expected if you bet on banker all the time (ignoring ties).
There is a big difference between "over 50%" and "over 53%". The first is expected (if you bet on banker and do not count ties), the second is impossible. The first still makes you a losing player; the 2nd makes you a very, very big winner.
Quote: gr8player1.) Tough question....lifetime sessions?....20,000?....more?
This is actually interesting. Don't you say that you play no more than twice per week?
I am very impressed that you have been playing this game for 200 years.
I understand, sounds good to me.Quote: gr8playerNo, AxelWolf, his point was not lost on me. I am very aware that there isn't much correlation between Pai Gow and a Baccarat shoe. I was simply commending his "out-of-the-box" thinking. Good for Face.
I've come much, much too far for any mistaken "delusions", AxelWolf.
But you are correct...I haven't patented any bet selection or money-management processes. I, myself, know of a few others who are just as able, just as adept, as I. Sometimes we find ourselves at the same table. And, you want the real kicker?....there are times, albeit not very often, where we find ourselves betting opposite of each other. Just goes to show about the uniqueness of this game, and how two differing players, dependent upon how they record and/or read the shoe, might see the pending results differently.
The important take-away from all of that is this: it doesn't really matter.
What counts....what really ONLY counts....is what I think is correct, and that is where MY money plays.
Stay well.
Gr8 please answer My question about why you will not at least show us you are a real person and in fact do play Bac. I understand no one can prove your system works, however we could at least verify you Play Bac andyou just don't talk about it. And even go as far as to get evidence you can come out ahead during the course of a particular play. Or take mission up on the webcam show dealing experiment. With all this time you have to go back and fourth with all the naysayers, you could spend some of that time getting some credibility.
Quote: RolexWatchA Martingale is the Rolex of progressions, feels great while it works but expensive when it breaks
So True.
:)
BankIt
Quote: IbeatyouracesI'm sure that he Wizard isn't going to waste his time.
True I totally disrespected the wizard by assuming he looks at every hairbrained idea.
appears you are not fooling even more around here, maybe you should re-aquaint yourself with those losing weekends you posted on GG, or even when you disappear on here for a few weeks while you lick your wounds. Then again, who really knows what goes on, nobody has ever seen you, you duck and dive from requests to meet, perhaps it is all make-believe, such as your back-tracking which wouldn't be a first.Quote: gr8playerGive it up already....you're not fooling anybody 'round here.
such as to the tune of 250k, perhaps your short term ego needs reminding about that. More than anything else, more telling is the fact you keep coming back for more and more of the same, this says more about you than you will ever realise, you need this more than quietly making dollars in a casino, recognition is what you crave most. Certainly doesn't look like its happening here nor ever will.Quote: gr8playerAm I ever wrong? Heck, I'm wrong more than I could ever care for.
I'd rather pay the price of time as opposed to bankroll; LOL
he reads what others posts and simply increases it, "to make him appear more significant".Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis is actually interesting. Don't you say that you play no more than twice per week?
I am very impressed that you have been playing this game for 200 years.
would have thought, if you see something similar and act simialr every time, or count occurances of something whatever, shouldn't that be viewed as mechancial? He has come along way, from staff watching him during their down time, his play complimented on by the parking attendant, a pit boss wanting to mirror his action, being apporached to write a book on baccarat, being ranked in some casino computer system as somebody expected to win, in other words the casino has to have you down as having a positive +EV playing a negative expectation game, truly truly amazing!! Now they can't wait to see the back of him. The more nobody believes the more outlandish the claims will become, plz beem me up scotty.Quote: thecesspitAs there is no mechanical system, apparently, then how could anyone 'take a look at it'.
Of course, this contra to other claims that gr8 has made where he claims he plays the same way all the time, and there is no 'gut' in his decisions. It's based on maths and variance and streaks and positive cash flow. Or something like that.
So, whatevers.
The important take-away from all of that is this: it doesn't really matter.
What counts....what really ONLY counts....is what I think is correct, and that is where MY money plays.
Stay well.
Yes I agree, there is a fellow who I play bac with and some shoes we can be betting differently most the shoe and still both end in front just by flat betting and playing our own unique ways.
Quote: thecesspitAs there is no mechanical system, apparently, then how could anyone 'take a look at it'.
Of course, this contra to other claims that gr8 has made where he claims he plays the same way all the time, and there is no 'gut' in his decisions. It's based on maths and variance and streaks and positive cash flow. Or something like that.
Hello, thecesspit, I trust all is well with you.
Hmmm....let's see:
"plays the same way all the time": correct
"no 'gut' in my decisions": correct
"based on maths and variance and streaks and positive cash flow": correct, correct, and correct
There's no "or something like that" about it for me, my friend; it's EXACTLY like that.
Only difference between that and "mechanical" is: brain usage. We are allowed to think at the tables, we are allowed to adjust our play according to the current results that this shoe/table is dispensing, we are allowed to adjust our bet sizes (yes, even down to zero: read: no-bet), and we are allowed to terminate any shoe/session at the time we deem most appropriate for us.
All done "mechanically"? Impossible.
All done by using one's vast playing experience and knowledge of this shoe game? Doable. Very doable.
Stay well.
Quote: AxelWolfI understand, sounds good to me.
Gr8 please answer My question about why you will not at least show us you are a real person and in fact do play Bac. I understand no one can prove your system works, however we could at least verify you Play Bac andyou just don't talk about it. And even go as far as to get evidence you can come out ahead during the course of a particular play. Or take mission up on the webcam show dealing experiment. With all this time you have to go back and fourth with all the naysayers, you could spend some of that time getting some credibility.
I'm not sure what happened regarding the "Mission experiment". I can only suppose that it was deemed simply not worth the bother of it all.
Please know that my credibility is not in question; at least, not by those that truly matter to me.
Quote: RolexWatchwould have thought, if you see something similar and act simialr every time, or count occurances of something whatever, shouldn't that be viewed as mechancial? He has come along way, from staff watching him during their down time, his play complimented on by the parking attendant, a pit boss wanting to mirror his action, being apporached to write a book on baccarat, being ranked in some casino computer system as somebody expected to win, in other words the casino has to have you down as having a positive +EV playing a negative expectation game, truly truly amazing!! Now they can't wait to see the back of him. The more nobody believes the more outlandish the claims will become, plz beem me up scotty.
I do not play this game mechanically. But you already knew that, didn't you RolexWatch/Egalite/Johno? Truth matters little to you, especially if it interferes with your personal vendetta against me.
Please tell us why, Egalite, you felt the need to resurrect yourself as "RolexWatch" even after your own self-imposed banishment from this forum? In fact, let's take that query even further, shall we?: You question my integrity at every turn, yet I'm the one of us with only one moniker in every forum I've ever joined: "gr8player"; yet, you've had dozens of them: "Egalite/Johno/Carlo/RolexWatch"; why is that? Please tell us, exactly what is it that you are trying so hard to hide?
Why not stay true to your own word and remain banished? These forums are not very good for you, are they Egalite/RolexWatch?
Quote: gr8playerHello, thecesspit, I trust all is well with you.
Hmmm....let's see:
"plays the same way all the time": correct
"no 'gut' in my decisions": correct
"based on maths and variance and streaks and positive cash flow": correct, correct, and correct
There's no "or something like that" about it for me, my friend; it's EXACTLY like that.
Only difference between that and "mechanical" is: brain usage. We are allowed to think at the tables, we are allowed to adjust our play according to the current results that this shoe/table is dispensing, we are allowed to adjust our bet sizes (yes, even down to zero: read: no-bet), and we are allowed to terminate any shoe/session at the time we deem most appropriate for us.
All done "mechanically"? Impossible.
All done by using one's vast playing experience and knowledge of this shoe game? Doable. Very doable.
Stay well.
You obviosuly fail to understand the words I am using. If you play the same way -all the time-, even if you are thinking, it is a system that can be coded, assessed and modelled.
If situation X has response Y, it is codable.
If situation X sometimes has response Y and sometimes Z depending on some random factor that is nothing to do with the game itself, it is not codable.
Mechanical is not an insult or denigration of a system. It just means same input in, same output out. You can change bet sizes (even to zero!) dependent on the results the shoe is giving you and still have a mechanical, repeatable system. it may be complex, but it can be made into an algorithm. if it can't, then your claim 'always the same' is false.
So once again, we see you make one statement, and then make another statement later in the same post that contradicts your previous claims. And you wonder why people don't take you seriously?
But I do take issue with your "And you wonder why people don't take you seriously?":
I can only suggest that you are, my friend, speaking for yourself (and possibly some other particular members of this forum).
Please know, however, that in general, my views are rather accepted and, in fact, sought after by those wishing to understand how to better their Bac game.
My posts are not for everybody. Frankly, is anyone's?
People that want to will get much more than their price of admission. Those that don't want to won't be disappointed either, especially in this forum, where they are in the majority.
Believe it or not, there is much to be gleaned from a Bac player such as myself. People do gamble. All I convey are, IMHO, better approaches and methodologies to do so. What's wrong with attempting to get the utmost bang for your gaming buck?
I don't post on any sites that are not gaming-related. None. Zero. So it's only a reasonable assumption on my part that there are, in fact, those that wish to learn about bettering their gaming experience and, maybe, just maybe, learn to come away as a winner more often than not.
Is there, seriously, anyone that thinks that playing an experienced game, with patience and discipline and consistency, gives anyone a lesser chance at success? Seriously?
And what is to be made of strategic exit points? Sure, I know that "it's all one big long-term game" that we're playing. But anyone ever hear of "positive reinforcement"? What wrong with learning a better way to leave the table with more chips than you bought in for? And, then, hopefully, striving to make that a habit?
Yes, I know the math. I'm familiar (well before ever joining this esteemed forum) with the negative expectancy. I know what I'm up against.
But I also know that which I can control, that which I can use in my favor.
For some of you...ooops, sorry,... for most of you in this forum, that all still adds up negatively.
Me? I'm attempting, with each and every bet at each and every session, to turn it into a positive number.
Man vs table. May the better man win....
He probably felt it was not worth it for him. because of the the amount of shoes it would take to prove anything. However recently you seem to indicate you leave the casinos each weekend with a profit even after all your costs. So this would not take long. I will talk with Mission and see if he is still interested, all's you have to to is bring your best game.Quote: gr8playerI'm not sure what happened regarding the "Mission experiment". I can only suppose that it was deemed simply not worth the bother of it all.
Please know that my credibility is not in question; at least, not by those that truly matter to me.
I assume if Mission is still willing you are ready and able?
Don't automatically disregard this opportunity because the time it may take away from your normal income from the casinos. We can put something in place to cover that.
Your credibility is in question by everyone( probably even by your loved ones). Not one credible person has ever stood behind you any of your claims. Occasionally some unknown newb pop's in and claims to be a Bac player. I would guess that's all BS as well.
You say this, over, and over, and over yet you never actually say anything different or informative. You use the same set of words and rephrase them as if you are writing a poem with riddles. Everything you say about Bac is ambiguous and repetitive. Please show me where I can glean some information you have provided. Where is the meat and potatoes? Things you have said, can be used for ANY game including something with a 95% HA.Quote: gr8player
Believe it or not, there is much to be gleaned from a Bac player such as myself.
.
you're either misinformed, confused or suffering from the onset of dementia (long term memory loss). Anybody can view your history of grandiose claims and contradictions, they clutter the internet, not for the first time you are wide of the markQuote: gr8playeryet, you've had dozens of them: "Egalite/Johno/Carlo/RolexWatch"; why is that? Please tell us, exactly what is it that you are trying so hard to hide?
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI have some questions, if you don't mind...
1. How many sessions have you played, lifetime? Ballpark, to a factor of ten. 100 times? 1000? 10,000?
2. If you are losing, do you generally increase your bets?
3. If you lose your initial stake, will you buy in for more? If necessary, will you buy in for a lot compared to your initial buy-in? Eg, have you ever initially bought in for $100, gone on a losing streak, and eventually been in for $1000 or more, before making a comeback and quitting a winner? Even if you haven't had to, are you willing to?
4. Do you bank? If so, do you get significantly more action than you give?
Don't mind at all. Rather interested in what you have in mind for my answers...
1. Have no idea on "sessions", only that it's nothing large enough to come to a "math truth". I'd reckon maybe close to 1,000 hands, but nowhere near 2,000.
2. I do, but not because I'm losing. Like I said, it's a "feel" thing. When I feel it, I'll double or triple my base wager. Whether I'm up or down is immaterial. And there are times when I feel it, lose, and then go even higher expecting the win is coming. Hence the "Martingale" part of my play style's title. But that's where that ends. Win, lose, or draw, it's back down to base after that.
3. It's never happened. Knowing me and if it did, I'd never buy in for a huge amount. $1,000?! I could buy a car for that! In all the games I've played, my buy is it. When it's gone, so am I. I might deviate from that if I'm having a great time or I'm getting my money's worth in entertainment or the free beers are coming fast, but I'm not an AP type there for the money and I'm not throwing good money after bad.
4. Almost never. <5 times. I can't fade that much action XD
Quote: gr8playerI do not intend to get into a "semantics" disagreement with you, thecesspit. My plays are always the same, my methodology will vary based upon current circumstances. But I wish no further argument, suffice to agree to disagree.
Wow, that is such a backwards statement, that it proves all the more the points I keep making. 'My plays are the same'? 'Methodology will vary'? Really? And you think you have actually shared anything anyone can understand, like, ever?
I am not trying to have a semantic argument. As before, I am trying to get you to use words the way everyone means them. Not the way you wish them to mean. Don't worry, I am used to it from your posts.
Quote:But I do take issue with your "And you wonder why people don't take you seriously?":
I can only suggest that you are, my friend, speaking for yourself (and possibly some other particular members of this forum).
Well, I'm hardly speaking for the Republican Party, am I? You can take issue with it all you like. I merely point out the errors in your arguments for all to see.
Quote:Please know, however, that in general, my views are rather accepted and, in fact, sought after by those wishing to understand how to better their Bac game.
Unproven Claim. Again.
Quote: FaceDon't mind at all. Rather interested in what you have in mind for my answers...
1. Have no idea on "sessions", only that it's nothing large enough to come to a "math truth". I'd reckon maybe close to 1,000 hands, but nowhere near 2,000.
2. I do, but not because I'm losing. Like I said, it's a "feel" thing. When I feel it, I'll double or triple my base wager. Whether I'm up or down is immaterial. And there are times when I feel it, lose, and then go even higher expecting the win is coming. Hence the "Martingale" part of my play style's title. But that's where that ends. Win, lose, or draw, it's back down to base after that.
3. It's never happened. Knowing me and if it did, I'd never buy in for a huge amount. $1,000?! I could buy a car for that! In all the games I've played, my buy is it. When it's gone, so am I. I might deviate from that if I'm having a great time or I'm getting my money's worth in entertainment or the free beers are coming fast, but I'm not an AP type there for the money and I'm not throwing good money after bad.
4. Almost never. <5 times. I can't fade that much action XD
I wanted to know the number of sessions because you said that you'd never had a losing session. Note that for a short (or even not-that-short) amount of time, if you use a negative progression (or something resembling a negative progression) you are more than 50% to be ahead (possibly way more than 50% if you have deep pockets and small initial bets). This is the thing that kills the negative progression bettors. It's not their imagination; they really do win most of the time! The problem is that when they lose, it's really, really, ugly, and wipes out all their wins and then some. If they go a long time between losses, they can start to feel very confident, until it all comes crashing down. Essentially, with a negative progression, you are betting a lot to try to win a little.
Anyway, 1 to 2 thousand hands is very small sample, especially since you are using something like a negative progression. Also, although you didn't say so, I strongly suspect that you are more likely to quit when ahead than behind. My question is, what's the minimum bet at the tables where you play, if you're only buying in for $100? Are these $5 tables?
I'm a little confused by your response #3. You claim that when your buy-in is gone, so are you, but also that you've never had a losing session (except for one time where you might have lost $15, but you are not sure)
I suspect that you've just gotten lucky (not crazy-lucky... but lucky). I also suspect that you are playing for such a small amount of money that it doesn't really matter.
Quote: AxiomOfChoice
I'm a little confused by your response #3. You claim that when your buy-in is gone, so are you, but also that you've never had a losing session (except for one time where you might have lost $15, but you are not sure)
I have played other games, though, and that's what I do there. I guess that's just how I play. If I sit down to play $100, then that's what I'm playing with. No more.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceI suspect that you've just gotten lucky (not crazy-lucky... but lucky). I also suspect that you are playing for such a small amount of money that it doesn't really matter.
Of course it is. I hope you didn't think I was promoting something believing I was on to something and wasted your time proving me wrong ;) I am under no delusion, and in fact know the way I play is less than ideal, what with my deviations from House Way based on "feels". I'm basically no different than the asses y'all lament at the BJ tables, with the exception that I know I am one.
Ever since MustangSally mentioned her 4 royals in 20,000 VP hands, I've been wondering if I'm the only sucker who ever does worse than expectation :)
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: Face♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
I have not even played 50 hands of Bac, the 50 were only using match plays. I have never really came across any Bac plays with an advantage. I know there are situations using loss rebates or other REAL methods(Something I would be interested in).However, Bac seems boring to me. The only thing that can possibly be interesting about the game is wildly GUESSING when to make a bit bet, then patting yourself on the back when you were right. I know it looks interesting when watching James Bond play it, but that's it. All that destroying cards crap is just ridiculousnessQuote: AxiomOfChoiceQuote: FaceDon't mind at all. Rather interested in what you have in mind for my answers...
1. Have no idea on "sessions", only that it's nothing large enough to come to a "math truth". I'd reckon maybe close to 1,000 hands, but nowhere near 2,000.
2. I do, but not because I'm losing. Like I said, it's a "feel" thing. When I feel it, I'll double or triple my base wager. Whether I'm up or down is immaterial. And there are times when I feel it, lose, and then go even higher expecting the win is coming. Hence the "Martingale" part of my play style's title. But that's where that ends. Win, lose, or draw, it's back down to base after that.
3. It's never happened. Knowing me and if it did, I'd never buy in for a huge amount. $1,000?! I could buy a car for that! In all the games I've played, my buy is it. When it's gone, so am I. I might deviate from that if I'm having a great time or I'm getting my money's worth in entertainment or the free beers are coming fast, but I'm not an AP type there for the money and I'm not throwing good money after bad.
4. Almost never. <5 times. I can't fade that much action XD
I wanted to know the number of sessions because you said that you'd never had a losing session. Note that for a short (or even not-that-short) amount of time, if you use a negative progression (or something resembling a negative progression) you are more than 50% to be ahead (possibly way more than 50% if you have deep pockets and small initial bets). This is the thing that kills the negative progression bettors. It's not their imagination; they really do win most of the time! The problem is that when they lose, it's really, really, ugly, and wipes out all their wins and then some. If they go a long time between losses, they can start to feel very confident, until it all comes crashing down. Essentially, with a negative progression, you are betting a lot to try to win a little.
Anyway, 1 to 2 thousand hands is very small sample, especially since you are using something like a negative progression. Also, although you didn't say so, I strongly suspect that you are more likely to quit when ahead than behind. My question is, what's the minimum bet at the tables where you play, if you're only buying in for $100? Are these $5 tables?
I'm a little confused by your response #3. You claim that when your buy-in is gone, so are you, but also that you've never had a losing session (except for one time where you might have lost $15, but you are not sure)
I suspect that you've just gotten lucky (not crazy-lucky... but lucky). I also suspect that you are playing for such a small amount of money that it doesn't really matter.
Waite, speaking of James Bond, I did in fact play Bac online years ago, when clearing the 007 roulette casino on net promotion bonus money. I had no clue what was needed to win, I just picked something, flat bet and went as fast as I could. I kept looking for the hit button, I don't think I even know how cards are added up and whats needed to win. Who ever is closest to 9 or something. So by all accounts I am a absolute newb at Bac. I should be given a big handicap. But, I will take a small advantage and play VS the G8est system/method Bac player in the world. (obviously this is not intended for anyone who has a mathematical advantage due to counting or something like that)
Quote: gr8playerLook, let me be very clear here:
My posts are not for everybody. Frankly, is anyone's?
People that want to will get much more than their price of admission. Those that don't want to won't be disappointed either, especially in this forum, where they are in the majority.
Believe it or not, there is much to be gleaned from a Bac player such as myself. People do gamble. All I convey are, IMHO, better approaches and methodologies to do so. What's wrong with attempting to get the utmost bang for your gaming buck?
I don't post on any sites that are not gaming-related. None. Zero. So it's only a reasonable assumption on my part that there are, in fact, those that wish to learn about bettering their gaming experience and, maybe, just maybe, learn to come away as a winner more often than not.
Is there, seriously, anyone that thinks that playing an experienced game, with patience and discipline and consistency, gives anyone a lesser chance at success? Seriously?
And what is to be made of strategic exit points? Sure, I know that "it's all one big long-term game" that we're playing. But anyone ever hear of "positive reinforcement"? What wrong with learning a better way to leave the table with more chips than you bought in for? And, then, hopefully, striving to make that a habit?
Yes, I know the math. I'm familiar (well before ever joining this esteemed forum) with the negative expectancy. I know what I'm up against.
But I also know that which I can control, that which I can use in my favor.
For some of you...ooops, sorry,... for most of you in this forum, that all still adds up negatively.
Me? I'm attempting, with each and every bet at each and every session, to turn it into a positive number.
Man vs table. May the better man win....
I totally understand and good post. From just started reading the forum and participating. You have way too many haters. Reasons are abound but for those who can read to what your saying there is truth in it. All be it not the truth that some here are looking for but truth none the less. I do not know this person(Gr8), nor have I been a member here under any other alias's but I can tell you this from my own person experience. If you take just a little bit of what Gr8 has said, use your vast or not so vast experience at what ever game you wish to endeavor in and Learn to make the best of it. Your wins and your gains will increase, you will lose have have loses. Let me repeat that. YOU WILL LOSE!!! In the end its how you can minimize your loses and keep your gains ahead of them. Is there luck involved, well some would say calculated risk, :) So Gr8 keep preaching, those with eyes and ears will see what your trying to say. Others will keep flogging you for what they dont understand and what they think the "numbers" show.
BankIt
Quote: AxelWolfHe probably felt it was not worth it for him. because of the the amount of shoes it would take to prove anything. However recently you seem to indicate you leave the casinos each weekend with a profit even after all your costs. So this would not take long. I will talk with Mission and see if he is still interested, all's you have to to is bring your best game.
I assume if Mission is still willing you are ready and able?
Don't automatically disregard this opportunity because the time it may take away from your normal income from the casinos. We can put something in place to cover that.
Your credibility is in question by everyone( probably even by your loved ones). Not one credible person has ever stood behind you any of your claims. Occasionally some unknown newb pop's in and claims to be a Bac player. I would guess that's all BS as well.
LOL wow I shoulda prob. read this post following gr8's post before I made my reply to gr8 from the post above yours. Well I am a newb, I am backing him and I don't care what people think about my cred. I said what I said in my reply to Gr8 and that all needs to be said.
BankIt
You were backing him with that post?????? LOL... that was a backhanded backing or dammed by faint praise? The only thing I got from your post is YOU WILL LOSE no matter what you do and his system just helps him lose less per session. I totally agree with that. If you only make a few bets here and there and walk away when you win a few units or walk away when you lose a few units. You will LOSE LESS.Quote: BankItLOL wow I shoulda prob. read this post following gr8's post before I made my reply to gr8 from the post above yours. Well I am a newb, I am backing him and I don't care what people think about my cred. I said what I said in my reply to Gr8 and that all needs to be said.
BankIt
PS it looks like I should be a Bac player since I can predict things so well. I'm practically a F-ing psychic.
you need to work through the mumbo-jumbo. He waffled about "doms", if one side has produced a couple of runs of 3, when it doubles parlay for the 3rd. If one side is producing singles, bet opposite when it shows next. Usual baloney deluded gambler fallacy approach to the game were previous behaviour of any one side carries weight next time around. Learn to read a shoe (he's the master at this), when to bet "the same as last" (if bank bet bank, if player bet player), or opposite of last, then claims he can 53% do this correctly, if not no worries as he's not dependant on winning any single outcome (thinks that is a bonus and unique).Quote: thecesspitWow, that is such a backwards statement, that it proves all the more the points I keep making. 'My plays are the same'? 'Methodology will vary'? Really? And you think you have actually shared anything anyone can understand, like, ever?
Thinks he is famous because Google now trawls public forums, so you can now search "gr8 progression". Something based on condo's levels as he likes to call them, in a 'nut' if ya lose, bet more next time and bigger after that because shit never strikes thrice. Based on his collected stats. Whatever happens during the week dont count, stats only apply when he's at the table.
Still bewildered, don't fret, a bit like trying to convince someone incarcerated in a lunatic asylum they really aren't jesus or have super powers. You come across old timers like this in most casinos, this particular one discovered the internet to feed his own beliefs. Can't knock the guy, he must have a positive +EV and is expected to win because it said as much in the casino computer system, he claims.
a trendy grinder
Quote: thecesspitI merely point out the errors in your arguments for all to see.
And I thank you for it, thecesspit. Where would I be if I didn't have your incessant censuring of each and every word in most of my posts? I can only imagine my internal bewilderment and confusion. And where would the other members of this forum be without your assistance in keeping me "honest"? Good job, my friend.
Quote: BankItI totally understand and good post. From just started reading the forum and participating. You have way too many haters. Reasons are abound but for those who can read to what your saying there is truth in it. All be it not the truth that some here are looking for but truth none the less. I do not know this person(Gr8), nor have I been a member here under any other alias's but I can tell you this from my own person experience. If you take just a little bit of what Gr8 has said, use your vast or not so vast experience at what ever game you wish to endeavor in and Learn to make the best of it. Your wins and your gains will increase, you will lose have have loses. Let me repeat that. YOU WILL LOSE!!! In the end its how you can minimize your loses and keep your gains ahead of them. Is there luck involved, well some would say calculated risk, :) So Gr8 keep preaching, those with eyes and ears will see what your trying to say. Others will keep flogging you for what they dont understand and what they think the "numbers" show.
BankIt
Hello, BankIt, and welcome to the forum. First post out of the box and you hitched your wagon rather well, my friend.
This is just for you:
Baccarat is more a game vs yourself than it is vs the table. The table is a non-thinking, decision-spewing entity whereas we, as players, have brains we can utilize, for we are allowed to think and act and do exactly what is in our best interests at all times.
Does that make you any more correct on your next bet? Nope, sorry. But it does correlate to your reaction to same. When one plays a controlled, consistent game, one knows, in advance, exactly what to do based upon the current results (read: resulting decisions and resulting strike rates) and adjusts their play accordingly.
On the contrary, the player that is betting on hunches, the player that is chasing for runs (or opposites), the impatient player that chases their losses, the undisciplined player that doesn't know when enough is truly enough, or the player that, frankly, isn't there as much to win as he is for the excitement/thrill of it all.....these are all losing players, who haven't a snowball's chance in heck at true, long-term success. I witness these sorts of players at every session, and I am truly amazed at their total lack of any control over themselves.
Notice I said "control over themselves"? You see, BankIt, we cannot control the "turn of the cards". They will fall as they will, regardless the size of that rabbit's foot in your pocket. But we can (and must) learn to control that which we can control. And that, my friend, begins with ourselves:
Ask yourself: What is it that I'm trying to accomplish at the Baccarat table? Fun? Excitement? In that case, may I suggest an amusement park? Trust me, it's be a heck-of-a lot cheaper. But if you're truly serious about winning, we must first be truthful with ourselves. Then we need to strive for certain goals, and then determine how we plan on obtaining them.
OK. Let's list a few things that we do have control over, as I deem them our Player's Advantages:
1.) We can bet where we want to. So, "bet selection" is our choice, our responsibility.
2.) We can bet the amount we want to. So, "money-management" is our choice, our responsibility.
3.) We can "no-bet" when we want to. Very important aspect of Baccarat, in order to await our preferred plays.
4.) We can terminate a session when we want to. Conservative "exit strategies" (especially as it pertains to "locking up profits") is our choice, our responsibility.
Now let's expound a bit on each:
1.) Bet selection
All bet selection methods will resolve, roughly, to 50/50 (less the HE). But, my friend, that simply won't cut it. Gotta get that percentage above 50%. Over the long term. You won't get over 50% all the time, but you will most of the time. And, here's the kicker: When you've got a bet selection striking at better that 50%, the variance (regression for the mean) will become controllable, so that you're not facing a double-digit downside on your strike rates. And that aids you in molding your money-management plan (more on that later). Now, how do I get a bet selection process that will hit greater than 50%?: shoe trending. (Sidenote: Admittedly, BankIt, this is the hard part. The very hard part. Without a boat-load of prior table experience, this simply ain't gonna happen for you. But I'm here to tell you how I got there, so let's continue, shall we?) Suffice to say that there are a few trends that I hone in on, and, frankly, because of that I've become a master of that trade as opposed to a jack of none; I know every relevant stat on each of my plays and I can readily recognize their ''twists and turns" (read: anticipate their highs and lows). When you get your bet selection process to that point, trust me, you'll know it. (And there ain't no better feeling at the tables than that.)
2.) Money management
Next you'd construct a MM plan around your the variances of your bet selection process. One needs to have a plan, a reaction, to everything that the table can throw at you. (And, trust me, it can throw some real garbage at times. Last week, a lot of my 8s were being trumped by 9s. Spit happens, better to be prepared for it.) Just as you don't chase your plays (you await them), you cannot chase your chips. Back off the tougher times, and try to recoup (ramp up a bit) when your plays begin to awaken. Utilize a grinding MM plan and you will get there, much more often than not. (Oh, and by "get there", even a pared-down loss is better than a larger-than-normal one...learn to walk a minor loss when deemed necessary.)
....sorry.....gotta go.....to be resumed later.....
Quote: gr8playerAnd I thank you for it, thecesspit. Where would I be if I didn't have your incessant censuring of each and every word in most of my posts? I can only imagine my internal bewilderment and confusion. And where would the other members of this forum be without your assistance in keeping me "honest"? Good job, my friend.
You are most welcome, my friend.
Be it clear, BS gets called as BS. Unproven claims get called as Unproven claims. Illogical arguments get called as such.
If you don't like it, I don't really cry for you. You are a big boy. You can deal with it how you see fit.
Quote: RolexWatchyou need to work through the mumbo-jumbo. He waffled about "doms", if one side has produced a couple of runs of 3, when it doubles parlay for the 3rd. If one side is producing singles, bet opposite when it shows next. Usual baloney deluded gambler fallacy approach to the game were previous behaviour of any one side carries weight next time around. Learn to read a shoe (he's the master at this), when to bet "the same as last" (if bank bet bank, if player bet player), or opposite of last, then claims he can 53% do this correctly, if not no worries as he's not dependant on winning any single outcome (thinks that is a bonus and unique).
I've read enough to understand his 'method' and 'system' or whatever it maybe. It's half baked. It'd be better raw.
He talks sense up to this point.Quote: gr8playerBaccarat is more a game vs yourself than it is vs the table. The table is a non-thinking, decision-spewing entity whereas we, as players, have brains we can utilize, for we are allowed to think and act and do exactly what is in our best interests at all times.
Does that make you any more correct on your next bet? Nope, sorry. But it does correlate to your reaction to same. When one plays a controlled, consistent game, one knows, in advance, exactly what to do based upon the current results (read: resulting decisions and resulting strike rates) and adjusts their play accordingly.
On the contrary, the player that is betting on hunches, the player that is chasing for runs (or opposites), the impatient player that chases their losses, the undisciplined player that doesn't know when enough is truly enough, or the player that, frankly, isn't there as much to win as he is for the excitement/thrill of it all.....these are all losing players, who haven't a snowball's chance in heck at true, long-term success. I witness these sorts of players at every session, and I am truly amazed at their total lack of any control over themselves.
Notice I said "control over themselves"? You see, BankIt, we cannot control the "turn of the cards". They will fall as they will, regardless the size of that rabbit's foot in your pocket. But we can (and must) learn to control that which we can control. And that, my friend, begins with ourselves:
Ask yourself: What is it that I'm trying to accomplish at the Baccarat table? Fun? Excitement? In that case, may I suggest an amusement park? Trust me, it's be a heck-of-a lot cheaper. But if you're truly serious about winning, we must first be truthful with ourselves. Then we need to strive for certain goals, and then determine how we plan on obtaining them.
OK. Let's list a few things that we do have control over, as I deem them our Player's Advantages:
1.) We can bet where we want to. So, "bet selection" is our choice, our responsibility.
2.) We can bet the amount we want to. So, "money-management" is our choice, our responsibility.
3.) We can "no-bet" when we want to. Very important aspect of Baccarat, in order to await our preferred plays.
4.) We can terminate a session when we want to. Conservative "exit strategies" (especially as it pertains to "locking up profits") is our choice, our responsibility.
then veered off to dream-world.Quote: gr8playerWhen you've got a bet selection striking at better that 50%, the variance (regression for the mean) will become controllable, so that you're not facing a double-digit downside on your strike rates. And that aids you in molding your money-management plan (more on that later). Now, how do I get a bet selection process that will hit greater than 50%?: shoe trending.
Good Luck with that request.Quote: endermikegr8player, could outline one of your simpler plays? I'm trying to understand what you see and understand while playing. Thanks.
Quote: endermikegr8player, could outline one of your simpler plays? I'm trying to understand what you see and understand while playing. Thanks.
Hello, endermike. Thank you for you inquiry. I've run into a few problems @ work related to this snowstorm, so rather than taking the extended time to complete my Bac theories/thoughts of my abbreviated post, I'll address yours first, for it won't take me nearly as long to do so.
Let's take the "top line" (on your horizontal scorecard) or the "1-hole" (as I refer to it):
At each shoe I look for certain trends/traits regarding that "top line", and I carry certain statistics regarding that line, as well.
I'll look to see how the "top line" is "clustering".
Many singles?
Few singles?
More importantly, how are they appearing? Are they "clustered" (read: bunched together), or are they more "scattered" (separated)?
I will base a part of my play (I say "part" because I track the "1-, "2-, and "3-holes" in a similar manner, and, again, carry certain pertinent stats on each.) And I will bet for one of two things:
1.) The current results
If this shoe appears as a "trender" (read: holding trends), I'll hop aboard, until, that is:
2.) The statistics
If the trend appears "correcting" into "normalcy", I'll adjust my play at first sighting of said correction.
endermike, I know that might be a bit advanced for you, but you asked and I'm attempting to answer without spelling out, literally, my entire Bac play. I hope you can understand.
Anyhow....again.....I'd have to pick this up at a later date....I'm being pulled away to handle work-related problems....sorry
Serious problem with this 1-hole malarkey (a hole tends to indicate something missing, a gap, a void) ¿
if ya write results horizontally the top line always gets filled, there never is any hole, no such thing as "1-hole".
Not hilarious, embarrassing, not the "whole thing", more the stat dependency, narda scrub the last bit.
Quote: AxelWolfm practically a F-ing psychic.
Since you brought it up, we are all Psychic on some level. No I'm not trolling. I'm serious. Not saying Gr8 or any of you are or me is more psychic I'm just saying is all.
BankIt
Quote: BankItSince you brought it up, we are all Psychic on some level. No I'm not trolling. I'm serious. Not saying Gr8 or any of you are me is/are more psychic I'm just saying is all.
(citation needed)
Quote: gr8playerHello, BankIt, and welcome to the forum. First post out of the box and you hitched your wagon rather well, my friend.
This is just for you:
Baccarat is more a game vs yourself than it is vs the table. The table is a non-thinking, decision-spewing entity whereas we, as players, have brains we can utilize, for we are allowed to think and act and do exactly what is in our best interests at all times.
Does that make you any more correct on your next bet? Nope, sorry. But it does correlate to your reaction to same. When one plays a controlled, consistent game, one knows, in advance, exactly what to do based upon the current results (read: resulting decisions and resulting strike rates) and adjusts their play accordingly.
On the contrary, the player that is betting on hunches, the player that is chasing for runs (or opposites), the impatient player that chases their losses, the undisciplined player that doesn't know when enough is truly enough, or the player that, frankly, isn't there as much to win as he is for the excitement/thrill of it all.....these are all losing players, who haven't a snowball's chance in heck at true, long-term success. I witness these sorts of players at every session, and I am truly amazed at their total lack of any control over themselves.
Notice I said "control over themselves"? You see, BankIt, we cannot control the "turn of the cards". They will fall as they will, regardless the size of that rabbit's foot in your pocket. But we can (and must) learn to control that which we can control. And that, my friend, begins with ourselves:
Ask yourself: What is it that I'm trying to accomplish at the Baccarat table? Fun? Excitement? In that case, may I suggest an amusement park? Trust me, it's be a heck-of-a lot cheaper. But if you're truly serious about winning, we must first be truthful with ourselves. Then we need to strive for certain goals, and then determine how we plan on obtaining them.
OK. Let's list a few things that we do have control over, as I deem them our Player's Advantages:
1.) We can bet where we want to. So, "bet selection" is our choice, our responsibility.
2.) We can bet the amount we want to. So, "money-management" is our choice, our responsibility.
3.) We can "no-bet" when we want to. Very important aspect of Baccarat, in order to await our preferred plays.
4.) We can terminate a session when we want to. Conservative "exit strategies" (especially as it pertains to "locking up profits") is our choice, our responsibility.
Now let's expound a bit on each:
1.) Bet selection
All bet selection methods will resolve, roughly, to 50/50 (less the HE). But, my friend, that simply won't cut it. Gotta get that percentage above 50%. Over the long term. You won't get over 50% all the time, but you will most of the time. And, here's the kicker: When you've got a bet selection striking at better that 50%, the variance (regression for the mean) will become controllable, so that you're not facing a double-digit downside on your strike rates. And that aids you in molding your money-management plan (more on that later). Now, how do I get a bet selection process that will hit greater than 50%?: shoe trending. (Sidenote: Admittedly, BankIt, this is the hard part. The very hard part. Without a boat-load of prior table experience, this simply ain't gonna happen for you. But I'm here to tell you how I got there, so let's continue, shall we?) Suffice to say that there are a few trends that I hone in on, and, frankly, because of that I've become a master of that trade as opposed to a jack of none; I know every relevant stat on each of my plays and I can readily recognize their ''twists and turns" (read: anticipate their highs and lows). When you get your bet selection process to that point, trust me, you'll know it. (And there ain't no better feeling at the tables than that.)
2.) Money management
Next you'd construct a MM plan around your the variances of your bet selection process. One needs to have a plan, a reaction, to everything that the table can throw at you. (And, trust me, it can throw some real garbage at times. Last week, a lot of my 8s were being trumped by 9s. Spit happens, better to be prepared for it.) Just as you don't chase your plays (you await them), you cannot chase your chips. Back off the tougher times, and try to recoup (ramp up a bit) when your plays begin to awaken. Utilize a grinding MM plan and you will get there, much more often than not. (Oh, and by "get there", even a pared-down loss is better than a larger-than-normal one...learn to walk a minor loss when deemed necessary.)
....sorry.....gotta go.....to be resumed later.....
Good stuff, thanks. Appreciate it.
BankIt
Quote: RolexWatchHe talks sense up to this point.
then veered off to dream-world.
A little secret that Gr8 highlighted but didn't come out and directly say it. Don't Get Greedy. You keep yourself under control and you'll do that much better in the long run.
BankIt
Quote: BankItSince you brought it up, we are all Psychic on some level. No I'm not trolling. I'm serious. Not saying Gr8 or any of you are or me is more psychic I'm just saying is all.
BankIt
Randi has $1,000,00 that says NOBODY is psychic.
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge.html
Quote: BuzzardRandi has $1,000,00 that says NOBODY is psychic.
http://www.randi.org/site/index.php/1m-challenge.html
I'll toss in another $30 that says no one is pyschic. This is even better than my super bowl safety bet :)
