Random selections and probability in sports betting

Please help me make sense of this. How does including elements of total randomness to sports betting effect the likelihood of winning while following a Martingale system? (I understand all systems are useless in the long run, just trying to grasp this.) For the sake of my question, I start with 5k, and a $10 bet, cashing out and starting over after every win. Each day had a list of 20 basketball games on the betting board at the Mirage. (Obviously I have nothing to do with the order of these games.) I would place 20 chips into a container, each chip numbered 1 through 20. The 1st chip selected twice would be the game that would be played. (Random selection.) Then a best of 7 heads versus tails for home versus away team. The selection for the day would have nothing to do with knowledge, opinions, analysis, etc. Ridiculous randomness versus more randomness. How do the odds of losing 10 in a row in this scenario differ from picking who I "think" is going to cover the spread?? I hope this makes sense. I look forward to your responses.

I think you have better odds martingaling the same team over and over. The team that loses will get more favorable odds for you in their next game.

The problem is that you have to more than double your bet because of the vig.

The stock market has had fundamentalists who look at indications of value such as earnings versus technicians who look solely at price for decades. Many technicians have had various dart throwing contests and have made money from it. For years one cocoa trader checked the NYC rainfall on a certain date... if it rained he bought cocoa futures if it was sunny he sold them short. He felt the rain in NYC was a predictor of the rain in Africa a few weeks earlier (or later) and was a reliable indicator. It worked for him for many years.

Some girls in an office chose teams by how nice the cities were... they turned out to be the best pickers in the whole office and made their money based on how beautiful a city was and how nice the nightclubs were.

So pick a numbered chip? Why not???

I dont think sport events are randomn events. So i think the best way would be to test them first for randomness; serial dependency, number of runs etc.

Teams have memory, they always plan according to their financial and sportive possibilities their place in a league...
Some might have some opponents which thy ancenstraly want to defeat, others play far to quickly without proper resting time etc etc.
After u did that, we might discuss further.

Quote: edward

I dont think sport events are randomn events. So i think the best way would be to test them first for randomness; serial dependency, number of runs etc.

Teams have memory, they always plan according to their financial and sportive possibilities their place in a league...
Some might have some opponents which thy ancenstraly want to defeat, others play far to quickly without proper resting time etc etc.
After u did that, we might discuss further.

But aren't all of those things figured in by the "sharps" that set the odds in the first place? All things considered, a book wants even money on each side. So the "trick" is to bet against overpriced teams, like the Yankees or Red Sox. But it's easy to overthink sports betting.

The main difference between this and a Martingale for, say, roulette is, in roulette, a winning bet pays even money but has a slightly less than 1/2 chance of winning, whereas in your system, the probability of picking the winner of a game (not including ties) is 1/2, but the payout is only 10-11.
The chance of losing 10 in a row is 1/1024, but keep in mind that if you bet 11 to win 10 (this makes the math easier) and double your bet after each loss, you get:
0 losses before a win: +10
1 loss before a win: -11, +20 = +9
2 losses before a win: -11, -22, +40 = +7
3 losses before a win: -11, -22, -44, +80 = +3
4 losses before a win: -11, -22, -44, -88, +160 = -16

You have to increase each bet by more than 100% in order to be +10 after each win:
After 1 loss: -11, bet 24 (to win 21)
After 2 losses: -11, -24, bet 50 (to win 45)
After 3 losses: -11, -24, -50, bet 105 (to win 95)
After 4 losses: -11, -24, -50, -105, bet 220 (to win 200)

4 losses before a win: -11, -22, -44, -88, +160 = is -5 not -16

Also, Reduced juice shops like pinny (-105) is a must have.

Quote: EdgeLooker

4 losses before a win: -11, -22, -44, -88, +160 = is -5 not -16

Er... oops

Quote:

Also, Reduced juice shops like pinny (-105) is a must have.

In that case, you are betting 21 to win 20
0 losses before a win: +20
1 loss before a win: -21, +40 = +19
2 losses before a win: -21, -42, +80 = +17
3 losses before a win: -21, -42, -84, +160 = +13
4 losses before a win: -21, -42, -84, -168, +320 = +5
5 losses before a win: -21, -42, -84, -168, -336, +640 = -11

From my view I think that there should not be the random selection of the game. The wager should choose that game to bet in which he has the best knowledge. So by having the best knowledge in the game the probability of winning the game increases to the wagers. And he can also get more information related to his game from the site sprotsbook.
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