awakefield1983
awakefield1983
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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February 7th, 2012 at 2:00:30 PM permalink
I agree 100% that all betting systems are flawed when trying to beat the game in the long run and cannot avoid the house edge.

I am not a professional gambler, meaning, I don't make a living from gambling. However, I gamble quite well, I know optimal strategy for almost every basic casino game, have no superstitions, can easily quit when hitting my profit goal/stop loss limits etc.

This being said, for someone who only spends a few days out of the year at the casino and is not looking to make a profit in the "long-run", would applying a betting system to attempt to make profits in the "short-run" make sense?

When using a progressive betting system, it works the majority of the time. Admittedly, the losses are more substantial when they do occur. Therefore, when trying to make a marginal sum of money, while only playing a few hours out of the year, is the risk worth it? Under this scenario, I would argue yes.

What are you thoughts?

Just to reiterate - I am not mathematically challenged - I know that no betting system can work in the long run - I am simply laying our a hypothetical for marginal short-term wins.
YoDiceRoll11
YoDiceRoll11
Joined: Jan 9, 2012
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February 7th, 2012 at 2:05:43 PM permalink
Absolutely not. You should only bet what you are willing to lose. Even in the short run, betting "systems" still lose. Just because your friend said he made $2,000 in 4 hours means nothing.

Play optimal strategy. Play your bankroll. End of story. ;0

Edit: Also, try not to spam the very same thread in two different sub-categories. Very noobish.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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February 7th, 2012 at 2:06:02 PM permalink
The problem is that you never know where your short-term session(s) will fall into the long-run chain of events. There's always a chance that you'll be utterly creamed.

To the extent that systems (usually) don't make you any worse off, you're probably good to manage your bankroll however you want. Personally, I very much prefer a system with several small losses and some small wins to a system with several small wins and occasional gigantic losses.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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February 7th, 2012 at 2:17:31 PM permalink
Let's be clear: betting systems don't "work" at all, regardless of the timeframe, in the sense that making a sequence of varying bet amounts doesn't change the house edge of what you're betting on. It is true that a betting system can increase your likelihood of a winning session, but that invariably comes with a corresponding increase in the likelihood of a catastrophic loss. Only you can decide whether that risk is worth it.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AZDuffman
AZDuffman
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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February 7th, 2012 at 2:48:51 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Let's be clear: betting systems don't "work" at all, regardless of the timeframe, in the sense that making a sequence of varying bet amounts doesn't change the house edge of what you're betting on. It is true that a betting system can increase your likelihood of a winning session, but that invariably comes with a corresponding increase in the likelihood of a catastrophic loss. Only you can decide whether that risk is worth it.



I think that is kind of what he was asking. Say I have $1,000 to bet and am willing to risk it all. Go to a $3 craps table and martingale all weekend. If you lose you limit you might have lost it anyways. If you win some you won some and can tell all your unknowing friends how the "system" worked.

My position would be as long as you don't extend your limits there is no harm is using a "system" for a session as long as you know it will not work long term.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
RoyalBJ
RoyalBJ
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February 7th, 2012 at 2:56:03 PM permalink
I play Ultimate Texas Holdem, playing the strategy described on discount gambling, betting minimum, nothing on Trips. And "hit and run": when I get 25% return (i.e. buy in $300, making $75 or more), I walk. So far so good. Small profits make big.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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February 7th, 2012 at 3:06:07 PM permalink
There's nothing wrong with having a strategy, and/or a plan of action.

The trouble comes when these are discussed as systems, because "system" takes on an implication that it is designed to do something that, in reality, won't happen.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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February 7th, 2012 at 3:15:46 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

There's nothing wrong with having a strategy, and/or a plan of action.

The trouble comes when these are discussed as systems, because "system" takes on an implication that it is designed to do something that, in reality, won't happen.



Are you saying that these are more like "methods?" ;-)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 7th, 2012 at 3:37:44 PM permalink
There is no short term, you're always playing in the
long term. Its like trying to stick your toe in part of
the ocean, you're in the whole ocean, like it or not.
Because the game itself is in the long term, when
you play it, so are you. It took me awhile to grasp
that all the roulette wheels in the world that spin
every day are connected by the math of the game.
If you see 10 reds in a row on the wheel in front
of you, odds are there are 10 blacks in a row
on another wheel somewhere. The game is always
striving to balance itself. When I play, I'm just a tiny
cog in a very big machine.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal
135steward
135steward
Joined: Feb 2, 2012
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February 7th, 2012 at 4:04:11 PM permalink
But, how should we definine "work when we say no system "works"? We were talking about systems at another forum. No one here, there, or anywhere in their right mind expects to make more money than he loses gambling. But the fellow at the other forum pointed out that by using Oskar's grind, he sat at the blackjack table playing and enjoying several drinks all night long. So, in that case, the system "worked".

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