Betting patterns in Blackjack
I have found that flat betting is bad.
For instance with flat betting after ~50 hands I would usually be about 5-10 units down.
I'm now varying my bet sizes and noticed a substantial increase in my gain through blackjack.
Some sessions I was up by ~50 units.
This makes a nice change to slowly losing.
Ideally I would like to find a betting pattern that has a decent chance of gain but doesn't go too far overboard like the Martingale does.
I was wondering what betting patterns others use.
In particular what betting pattern the Wizard uses would be great to know. :)
Quote: clarkacalI use a betting pattern where I look at the second hand of my watch. If the second hand is at 15, 30, 45, or 00 I bet 15 units. If it's at 5, 20, 35, 50 I bet 5 units. And so on. I find that this sufficiently confuses the cards and I have a better chance of winning. Sometimes I wear a disguise just to be sure.
With the crazy variance in BJ I think this is an excellent way to play, I cant tell you how many times I have been brutally beaten with a count of +3 or more!
Quote: NicksGamingStuffWith the crazy variance in BJ I think this is an excellent way to play, I cant tell you how many times I have been brutally beaten with a count of +3 or more!
I have several other betting systems for sale at the low low price of 19.95. Right now for a limited time I'm offering a guarantee that if you don't win your first session after purchasing my systems I will give you 2 FREE picks of the week in sports. Call now!
Quote: clarkacalI have several other betting systems for sale at the low low price of 19.95. Right now for a limited time I'm offering a guarantee that if you don't win your first session after purchasing my systems I will give you 2 FREE picks of the week in sports. Call now!
You see I don't have a watch as I just use my phone as my clock. The pit boss may get annoyed if I continuously bring out my phone to check it. I don't want to be watched more carefully while I'm using a system to take money from a casino.
Do your other systems require such hardware or are they more subtle?
Quote: clarkacalI have several other betting systems for sale at the low low price of 19.95. Right now for a limited time I'm offering a guarantee that if you don't win your first session after purchasing my systems I will give you 2 FREE picks of the week in sports. Call now!
Whats the number? If it starts 555 it's probably a scam IMHO
Quote: petroIdeally I would like to find a betting pattern that has a decent chance of gain but doesn't go too far overboard like the Martingale does.
Sure, I can help you out.
First check the table rules.
If BJ pays less than 3:2 or a Spanish deck is used, bet $0, else:
On a table with double after split, resplit to 4+ hands, resplit aces or double on split aces, bet 1/6 of your bankroll.
On a table with double after split, resplit to 3+ hands, bet 20% of your bankroll.
On a table with double after split, no resplits, bet 25% of your bankroll.
On a table with no double after split, with resplits, bet $0 if it's a shoe game or 1/3 of your bankroll if it's a 1 or 2 deck game.
On a table with no double after split, no resplits, bet $0 if it's a shoe game or 50% of your bankroll if it's a 1 or 2 deck game.
On the next hand, recalculate the bet based on your new bankroll.
In games that include shuffles, if you saw more aces on the table in the last hand than there are decks in the game, quit until the next shuffle.
Quote: petroI have only just started out in Blackjack but would like some advice with betting patterns.
I have found that flat betting is bad.
For instance with flat betting after ~50 hands I would usually be about 5-10 units down.
I'm now varying my bet sizes and noticed a substantial increase in my gain through blackjack.
Some sessions I was up by ~50 units.
This makes a nice change to slowly losing.
Ideally I would like to find a betting pattern that has a decent chance of gain but doesn't go too far overboard like the Martingale does.
I was wondering what betting patterns others use.
In particular what betting pattern the Wizard uses would be great to know. :)
You asked a legitimate question and deserve a legitimate answer. My answer to you and to avianrandy is that there is no betting pattern or system that can overcome the house edge in the long run. Please don't be fooled by a few wins.
You already realize that flat betting doesn't work and you instinctively want to vary your bets. That can be dangerous because double downs and multiple splits can cause you to lose up to 10 times what you've just won. If you put more money on the table, you will lose more money. Forget about streaks because by the time you recognize a streak it's over.
If you want to win at blackjack you must learn card counting and the Wizard's sites have all the information you need to get started.
so vary your bet A LITTLE BIT to do
that and protect your bankroll.
No one wants to have to go to the ATM
machine !
Start at 2 units (or 3 or 5). Increase by one (or 2 units in case of 5 unit start) unit after a win, and decrease by 2 after a loss, and by one after a push. Always betting a minimum of 2 or 3.
This allows me to "get lucky" on streak. On the other hand it expects to lose a bit more than a constant bet of 2 units per hand (as a choppy run of win/loss means you lose 3 units and only win 2). Still, it's nice the have the 6 units out there, double down an 11 against a 6 and win a big chunk of change.
I'll normally return to base bet after a shuffle.
Normal buy in 20 units and I'll walk when felted. If it's a $3 table, I'll probably have 35-40 units and will be there a while. Dealer don't love it when I bet $7 a hand, but I'm tipping at least once a shoe, so they tend not to mind too much., and it slows the game down a little to give me a little more time for my buy in. My buddy never complains either, if he wants a fast game he goes plays the big boys tables anyways :)
How did you guess. :)
Thanks for the imput guys.
I think I will try a small martingale system, doubling up when I lose but only to a point.
i.e. 1,2,4,8,16, then if I lose the 16 unit bet scale it down.
Quote: petroJufo; I think petro is referring to online blackjack where shuffle takes place between every hand.
How did you guess. :)
Thanks for the imput guys.
I think I will try a small martingale system, doubling up when I lose but only to a point.
i.e. 1,2,4,8,16, then if I lose the 16 unit bet scale it down.
You are cruising for a bruising...
Quote: petroIn particular what betting pattern the Wizard uses would be great to know. :)
The wizard does not use betting patterns because they are not based on any mathematical reality. A "counting system" is not a betting pattern. If you count cards you are looking to see if there is an increased possibility of a blackjack. While either you or the dealer could be the recipient of the blackjack, only the player is paid a bonus amount.
Quote: petroJufo; I think petro is referring to online blackjack where shuffle takes place between every hand.
How did you guess. :)
Thanks for the imput guys.
I think I will try a small martingale system, doubling up when I lose but only to a point.
i.e. 1,2,4,8,16, then if I lose the 16 unit bet scale it down.
That's a really bad choice given your requirement of not hurting your bank roll severely. Go the other way... increase a bet on a win, not a loss.
Quote: P90Actually, losing big once might be a better way. He doesn't intend to lose life-changing big, but a big loss might be painful enough to give up the habit, while small ones won't.
Only if he has a true perspective. Martingales are popular because they provide frequent positive reinforcement: Martingalers usually win. If the inevitable bloodbath is, fortuitously, delayed long enough, then the Martingaler's faith in the "system" will probably remain unshaken.
Quote: benbakdoffIf you want to win at blackjack you must learn card counting and the Wizard's sites have all the information you need to get started.
Unfortunately my casino uses a continuous shuffler... so i cant card count
why parlay a bet continuously your eventually gonna loose then there goes your winnings.
again a problem with my casino is you will never see a $5 table let alone a $3 table. I always get stuck on $15 tables.
Quote: kaubojUnfortunately my casino uses a continuous shuffler... so i cant card count
That's too bad. Seek out full tables, slow dealers, and take frequent breaks to reduce your hands per hour and ultimately your losses.
20 20 30 50 100 200 400
if you hit the first hand you will be even/positive
a push doesn't change anything
if you win 7 straight you win big
then revert back to 20 or walk away
if you win 0 you lose 20
win 1 you break even
win 2 you win 10
win 3 you win 20
win 4 you win 20
win 5 you win 20
win 6 you win 20
win 7 you win 820
But that's just me..
You can tweak it to fit your risk appetite and style
If you're up or you're down, and you feel like it would be more fun to place a bigger bet, do so. If you have won so much that you feel nervous about losing it, walk away. If you have lost so much that it's temporarily stopped being fun, walk away. Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
The betting system above has the same house edge as everything else with less mental arithmetic. Do people have fun keeping track of these betting systems? I guess if it's fun, I'm sorry for butting in.
Everybody knows the house edge is the same on every bet but thanks for stating that again..
He asked for betting systems in black jack.. Am I wrong for responding?
Quote: pacomartinThe wizard does not use betting patterns...
So your saying when The Wizard plays Blackjack he flat bets?
If you play by a few simple rules you already a winner.
1. Gambling no matter what your game is - is entertainment.
2. Never loose more than what your comfortable with. (for me that would be no more than what i would spent for a night out doing something else ie. movies/dinner and drinks.)
3. Know when to walk away. Never take atm/credit cards into the casino with you and never take anymore cash then what your willing to buy in with.
4. Have fun with the game your playing. When you get too aggravated stand up find another table or go home. Betting to win back your losses will only find you deeper in the hole.
Quote: petroSo your saying when The Wizard plays Blackjack he flat bets?
Most likely, either that, or varies bets according to card count. Most certainly not a betting system.
Quote: petroSo your saying when The Wizard plays Blackjack he flat bets?
No, a "betting system" is one in which future bet sizes are related to the sizes and results of one or more previous bets. That is not true for card counting. In card counting future bet sizes are related to the composition of the remaining shoe as deduced by any of several counting methods. If the Wizard varies his bets according to the count, he is not using a "betting system".
To my knowledge, there is no betting system that has anything remotely close to a usable correlation with any counting scheme (and, as a result, with the contents of the deck). I'd be pretty interesting if there were, because then you wouldn't have to count cards...
I've been toying around with a ruleset for adjusting the bet based on the current hand only, without keeping a count. It seems to match a basic count quite well for betting purposes, with a fraction of the effort. Didn't get to use it, it appears that it would be extremely visible. But nonetheless, if you don't want to actually count, this is quite a good option. I mostly focused on recognizing bad situations, since that's particularly easy and wonging out is your natural right.
Surely this comment/thought has been discussed before, but I don't remember reading about it -- I'm not a card counter, so I don't really follow those thread topics closely.
I think the premise of card counting is that there are certain collections of remaining cards in the deck/shoe that are more likely or less likely to lead to the player winning. Consider those to be good/bad cards. If to some point in a shoe the player has been winning/losing significantly while playing basic strategy, does that suggest that it is likely that the cards already played tended to be good/bad cards? If so, that should tell something about what kind of cards are left.
I know this is certainly not so reliable as actually keeping track of the cards as they are played, but it seems there could be some (slight) justification in starting a shoe with basic strategy, then half way through check your stack to see how that shoe has been for you. If you're winning, back off a bit for the rest of the shoe, because you've probably been using up the "good" cards; if you've been losing, press it a little expecting the rest of the shoe to have an abundance of good cards. The degree of cutting back or pressing could be based on how much you won/lost in the first half of the shoe. Now if that makes any sense at all (and I'm not so sure it does), then that sounds to me a whole lot like a "system" where your bets are based on past wins/losses. Sort of a poor man's (stupid man's? lazy man's?) version of counting.
And no, I certainly wouldn't risk much of my own money following a system like that. On the occasions when I play blackjack, I strictly flat bet and make an attempt to follow basic strategy throughout. And I only do that when craps isn't available at a rate with which I am comfortable.
Quote: kenarmanReading this thread got me to wondering if a progressive betting system might occasionaly give a slight edge. Before everyone repeats that the HE is always the same think of the card counter. Obviously a card counter has been able to determine when the deck turns positive through his own hard work. Wouldn't the progessive bettor occassionaly mirror this? It would be pure luck but his bets would have been winning because the deck turned positive so he increased his bets.
Well... I would say no, not really, and here is why. Each bet, you are only going to win or lose - that is unknown, depending on something else that is unknown (cards). House edge is something that can be known (rules). A counter only "affects" the house edge by turning an unknown variable into a known one.
The same way you could say every bettor has a player edge when the next [his] pair of cards is a blackjack. Yes, he's guaranteed to win, but that doesn't change the house edge, unless he knows the next pair of cards.
Quote: kenarmanI don't think it could ever happen often enough to give him a positive edge. But if it was to happen at all it would it not reduce the HE slightly from a flat or random bettor.
Simple put, there will be just as many situations when the deck goes cold, so that compensates for the gain.
Long run? On the contrary, it would increase the expected loss per win compared to a flat bettor. See my brief explanation on page 1, or I could dig up my post doing it in detail.
Quote: P90I've been toying around with a ruleset for adjusting the bet based on the current hand only, without keeping a count. It seems to match a basic count quite well for betting purposes, with a fraction of the effort.
Less effort caught my eye, but what, generally, are you doing here? Since the bet is out before one sees the current hand, does one apply the current hand to the next hand, and so on, which seems just like counting, or does one adjust the hand decision based on the composition of the cards currently displayed, or something else?
Quote: allenwalkerLess effort caught my eye, but what, generally, are you doing here? Since the bet is out before one sees the current hand, does one apply the current hand to the next hand, and so on, which seems just like counting, or does one adjust the hand decision based on the composition of the cards currently displayed, or something else?
You just adjust the next hand bet based on the current one. Look at the cards and mentally decide "Oh, I've got three aces and the dealer got one. There aren't any left in the deck, so the game is gonna suck and I better quit till the next shuffle". Actually much simpler, though, you just remember a few critical patterns for when to go up and when down. It's meant to be a way to keep friends from losing as much money in the casino (so they can be the ones bringing beer for the next party and not you).
Quote: P90Simple put, there will be just as many situations when the deck goes cold, so that compensates for the gain.
Long run? On the contrary, it would increase the expected loss per win compared to a flat bettor. See my brief explanation on page 1, or I could dig up my post doing it in detail.
But theoretically a progressive bettor will be increasing his bet more often on a good count because over the long run he will be having more winning hands during a good count and that will cause him to increase his bet. Over the long run when the count is bad he will be losing more often and hence not increasing his bet and staying at minimum bet. As I said in my original post I don't think that this makes a particularly significant difference but don't you think some slight effect will be there? At any other game such as craps or roulette the difference is not there since each spin or roll has exactly the same odds. I think we all agree that each hand of BJ will have it's own odds as the composition of the deck changes during a shoe.
The only decent strategy is hawk a table until the count is high enough and go in with your normal tight betting pattern and hope to win. The variance in BJ is just too high sometimes for you to gain any real advantage unless you have a mega bankroll and bet like frugal nut.
Quote: kenarmanBut theoretically a progressive bettor will be increasing his bet more often on a good count because over the long run he will be having more winning hands during a good count and that will cause him to increase his bet.
Each hand played changes the count. On a multiple player table, it happens quite quickly. Generally, winning hands are more likely to decrease the remaining deck (shoe) value. For instance, by getting a blackjack, you just took two blackjack cards out of the deck, so you should decrease the bet, not increase. TT usually wins, but it decreases the count. So the bad and the good are mixed there, it's hard to tell.
Increasing the bet on winning is usually the parlay system; progressive ones tend to rather increase on losing. Parlay has a positive effect on player's ultimate expectation. It's not due to correlating to count, but due to the decreased grind of house edge. For instance, if you play until you either double your bankroll or go bust, you will double your bankroll more often with parlay than with martingale or with flat-betting.
However, not as often as by placing the entire bankroll on one bet. Your overall loss percentage is always higher with multiple bets than with a single one; what the betting pattern affects is how much higher.
Quote: P90Each hand played changes the count. On a multiple player table, it happens quite quickly. Generally, winning hands are more likely to decrease the remaining deck (shoe) value. For instance, by getting a blackjack, you just took two blackjack cards out of the deck, so you should decrease the bet, not increase. TT usually wins, but it decreases the count. So the bad and the good are mixed there, it's hard to tell.
Increasing the bet on winning is usually the parlay system; progressive ones tend to rather increase on losing. Parlay has a positive effect on player's ultimate expectation. It's not due to correlating to count, but due to the decreased grind of house edge. For instance, if you play until you either double your bankroll or go bust, you will double your bankroll more often with parlay than with martingale or with flat-betting.
However, not as often as by placing the entire bankroll on one bet. Your overall loss percentage is always higher with multiple bets than with a single one; what the betting pattern affects is how much higher.
So not being a counter and never really tried to follow what a series of bets might look like for a counter. Does that mean that when the count goes positive for a counter that he will usually only get a couple of hands with a positive count if he wins?
6-deck shoe, at 50%, shuffle at 70%, 3 cards per hand, 5 players and dealer
Each hand is 17-18 cards, you have 60 till the shuffle. That's 3-4 hands, even assuming the deck doesn't cool down as it well might. And that is about the longest scenario.
Quote: P90[...] For instance, if you play until you either double your bankroll or go bust, you will double your bankroll more often with parlay than with martingale or with flat-betting.
However, not as often as by placing the entire bankroll on one bet. Your overall loss percentage is always higher with multiple bets than with a single one; what the betting pattern affects is how much higher.
Entire bankroll bet makes you unable to double down or split, resulting in higher house edge so I would advice 1/2 bankroll bet or even 1/4 bankroll bet to be safe.
Quote: kenarmanDoes that mean that when the count goes positive for a counter that he will usually only get a couple of hands with a positive count if he wins?
Usually, yes. But if you are the only player in the table then the positive count usually lasts longer because of less cards dealt per round.
Quote: Jufo81Entire bankroll bet makes you unable to double down or split, resulting in higher house edge so I would advice 1/2 bankroll bet or even 1/4 bankroll bet to be safe.
See page 1 - that's what I was suggesting from the get go. It varies depending on the exact rules.
Quote: P90See page 1 - that's what I was suggesting from the get go. It varies depending on the exact rules.
Sure I read that.
By the way, if the plan is to use 1/2 or 1/4 bankroll bets to maximize the probability to double bankroll (with least number of hands possible), it might be optimal to deviate from basic strategy slightly, for example double down on 9 vs. 2. The reason is that even though this double down is slightly worse than playing basic strategy, it gives a chance to reach target bankroll quicker and thus avoid the house edge of future hands played to reach traget.
Quote: Jufo81By the way, if the plan is to use 1/2 or 1/4 bankroll bets to maximize the probability to double bankroll (with least number of hands possible), it might be optimal to deviate from basic strategy slightly, for example double down on 9 vs. 2. The reason is that even though this double down is slightly worse than playing basic strategy, it gives a chance to reach target bankroll quicker and thus avoid the house edge of future hands played to reach traget.
I'm not sure, not necessarily. While the grind does comes from betting through the same money multiple times, it's very slow in blackjack. The expectation for doubling 9v2 in a 6-deck shoe is worse than the house edge. Now, in a single-deck game - but there you double anyway. Maybe in very marginal cases, but there aren't many of these.
Quote: P90I'm not sure, not necessarily. While the grind does comes from betting through the same money multiple times, it's very slow in blackjack. The expectation for doubling 9v2 in a 6-deck shoe is worse than the house edge. Now, in a single-deck game - but there you double anyway.
Actually there is a calculator for this:
http://www.beatingbonuses.com/bjstrategy.php
Choose the game rules and option "Two-tier" from the Optimization selection, which refers to optimally gambling to a target bankroll. You will note that there are a few changes. I found these for six-deck game: Double 9 vs. 2, Double A6 vs. 2 and A7 vs. 2. There may be others depending on game rules and house edge.
Betting Tips:
1.Always start with the lowest bet.
2.In Blackjack, losing and winning depends on the cards drawn and betting is the only thing a player can do.
3.Walk away when your bankroll is getting low, even when your blackjack is going good, as you never know whether the next round is going to be as lucky as your previous blackjack rounds.
4.Major Strategy involved in blackjack is card counting, just learn all about it . Card counting will help you in taking decisions like Hit or Stand.
5.Do not draw another card if your hand total is around 18 or 19, as this might probably risk your bright winning position.
1.Always start with the lowest bet.
(I'm assuming you mean always start with your base bet, whatever your bankroll determines)
2.In Blackjack, losing and winning depends on the cards drawn and betting is the only thing a player can do.
(Betting is not the only thing you can do, you can also change strategy based on cards that have been drawn, be aware of promotions, keep an eye out for weak dealers - if the dealer exposes their holecard on accident)
3.Walk away when your bankroll is getting low, even when your blackjack is going good, as you never know whether the next round is going to be as lucky as your previous blackjack rounds.
(I assume you'd never be risking such a significant portion of your bankroll on any given round so this shouldn't be an issue)
4.Major Strategy involved in blackjack is card counting, just learn all about it . Card counting will help you in taking decisions like Hit or Stand.
(I agree here - along with tracking)
5.Do not draw another card if your hand total is around 18 or 19, as this might probably risk your bright winning position.
(I assume you mean don't alert the casino to what you're doing by making ridiculous plays, which is a post all by itself)
