ARAS+ V2: A Scientific Entropy-Based System That Beats Baccarat

Hello everyone,

After several years of dedicated research, our team is ready to share an important milestone. We have constructed and successfully tested a multi-system scientific framework that, in our extensive simulations and practical applications, has demonstrated the ability to consistently extract edge from the game of baccarat.

This is not about betting progression, card counting, or psychological tricks. It's a mathematically grounded approach — the result of deep research into randomness, entropy, and structural behavior within finite outcome sequences.

We call it:

> 🎴 ARAS+ V2 — Advanced Randomness-Analysis System Plus, Version 2

---

### 🧠 Core Theoretical Foundations

#### ✅ 1. Non-i.i.d. Assumption
We reject the standard assumption that baccarat outcomes are fully independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.). In reality, finite shoe constraints, shuffle imperfections, and operational variance introduce structural irregularities into the sequence.

#### ✅ 2. Sliding Window Entropy Analysis
Using real-time sliding windows, we compute and track Shannon entropy over the outcome sequence, seeking signals of entropy *collapse* — transitions from disorder to temporary structural order.

#### ✅ 3. CME Module — Concentration Measure Entropy
Inspired by Talagrand-type concentration inequalities, our CME module measures the statistical *tightness* of entropy distributions to determine whether an observed entropy drop is genuinely significant — not merely random fluctuation.

#### ✅ 4. EDGE — Evolutionary Decision and Risk Framework
A strategic module that coordinates multiple subsystems, evaluates signal overlaps, manages capital exposure, and avoids overfitting or over-trading by enforcing logical consistency across subsystems.

#### ✅ 5. Dual Signal Engine:
- S-EDT (Structural Entropy Drop Trigger System): Detects sudden transitions from high entropy to low entropy — often indicative of exploitable structural order — and initiates counter-trend positions.
- M-MTP (Momentum Turning-Point Deviation System): Identifies key turning points in developing trends, measuring whether the current state deviates sufficiently from statistical expectations to justify trend-following actions.

#### ✅ 6. Supporting Modules:
- SEDA (Structural Entropy Dynamic Arbitrage): Analyzes the "entropy-energy" flow in the evolution of the sequence;
- Stochastic Regression System: Identifies temporary deviations likely to revert to the main trajectory;
- Weighted Reverse-Chase System: Calculates the credibility of a reversal scenario before executing any contrarian action.

---

### ❗Why We’re Sharing This

We are not selling this system, nor will we publish its operational core. The reason is simple: public release would invite casino countermeasures, irresponsible duplication, and long-term deterioration of signal quality.

Instead, we’re making this post to say one thing to serious gamblers and mathematical thinkers:

> 💬 Baccarat is not perfectly random. If you look at it through the right lens, it can be beaten — and we've proven that.

We're happy to discuss theoretical aspects, such as:
- Entropy and anomaly detection in finite-length sequences;
- The limitations of the i.i.d. model in real-world dealing/shuffling;
- Practical interpretations of concentration inequalities in gaming.

Thank you for reading,
— ARAS+ System Development Team

Let me pop up a whole bunch of popcorn to eat while watching all the replies your about to get :) This will be fun :)

Quote: noah

This is not about betting progression, card counting, or psychological tricks. It's a mathematically grounded approach

LOL

a mathematically grounded approach that we won't share because we don't want anyone to prove us wrong.

No, baccarat is not perfectly random. Aside from quantum and thermal (but I repeat myself) phenomena, nothing is.

The only information we have about a baccarat shoe is the cards we have seen dealt from it. Can you explain how that tells us anything about the entropy of the remainder of the shoe?

Two questions come to mind.

- Does your system call for placing bets other thank Player / Banker / Tie?

- How much of a bet spread is required?

U are like a frog in a well

We can reorganize the results of baccarat that have already been revealed into a structure, and use this new structural representation to describe the entropy situation.

This is a complex system, so I can only tell you that tie is not included. And the requirement for capital is very low.

Quote: noah

We can reorganize the results of baccarat that have already been revealed into a structure, and use this new structural representation to describe the entropy situation.
link to original post

So let's say the next 4 card in the shoe are either 2-2-6-7 (banker win) or 2-2-7-6 (player win). The composition of the rest of the shoe is the same in either case. What does one outcome or the other tell you about the entropy of the shoe?

I can tell you what effect removing those 4 cards will have on the edge of all the bets on the table. But that's card counting, that's old news. I now know the composition of the remainder of the shoe. But you're claiming this isn't a card counting method, but the only other information you have about this shoe is the order in which those cards were dealt. So how can the order of the dealt cards, and the game result they lead to, tell you anything about not the composition, but the order of the undealt cards and thus the game results when those cards are dealt?

I have already said that the point value of a tie has no relevance. I haven’t studied the impact of point values on Banker or Player because many people have already researched it, and the influence of card point values on Banker or Player is very small, making it impractical for real-world use. So, this is a completely new

Quote: noah

This is a complex system, so I can only tell you that tie is not included. And the requirement for capital is very low.
link to original post

It sounds like you think you can accurately predict if banker or player will win.

Best of luck.

My system doesn’t predict whether the banker or player wins; it predicts that the next entropy will decrease, giving rise to order from disorder.

You must understand that only God can predict whether the next round will be banker or player. This is almost impossible to achieve unless there’s a super AI. Our system predicts the state of entropy, specifically measuring entropy fluctuations, because no one can predict with absolute certainty.

A few questions and observations:

How does “order from disorder” translate to a bet?
.....What action follows an entropy collapse signal?
.....Does a low-entropy reading always trigger a Banker bet? Or is there a lookup table of pattern → bet size/direction?
.....Why should a drop in Shannon entropy correlate with a favorable Player vs. Banker edge?

Is sequence-based entropy adding beyond classical card count?
.....Standard hypergeometric depletion (card counting) already gives you the composition edge.
.....Tracking wins/losses order without suit or point-value detail seems equivalent to looking at runs of Banker/Player, which, in isolation carry no extra information about the remaining shoe’s makeup.

Statistical robustness in small samples
.....A baccarat shoe only yields ~140–150 hands. With sliding windows (say 20–30 rounds), random clumps of Banker/Player wins occur frequently.
.....Even with a Talagrand-style filter (CME), the false-positive rate may be high—leading to over-trading.

Operational clarity
.....Structural re-representation of the past shoe: what exactly is the mapping? Consecutive outcome runs? Bigram/trigram frequencies?
.....Parameter stability: which window sizes, entropy thresholds, or risk‐control constants consistently deliver the edge?

In a finite, non–independent-and-identically-distributed sequence of outcomes, one can model the series as a stochastic process with memory, whose local information entropy fluctuates around a global baseline. Occasionally, the process experiences a marked “entropy collapse”—a sharp drop in Shannon entropy—indicating that within that short window, outcomes have abnormally clustered or deviated. From the perspective of Talagrand’s concentration inequalities, such a collapse signifies that the conditional distribution over the block has shifted nontrivially away from the overall distribution, momentarily altering the balance of win probabilities.

The central conjecture is that these rare, low-entropy intervals correspond to epochs of enhanced predictability, where the sequence’s inertia or run-dependence becomes strong enough that one outcome (e.g., A over B) enjoys a higher conditional probability than the long-run average. By identifying—but not specifying how—these transient structural shifts, and then placing symmetric, constrained bets exclusively within them (while remaining idle during near-random, high-entropy phases), one theoretically captures the fleeting edge created by the process’s nonstationary information structure.

I can only tell you that we do not use card counting—because it can’t be employed in land-based casinos and its edge is minimal. Our system also does not predict the outcome of any individual round. Our current win rate is 60%.

.
you have used a lot of polysyllabic words and abstruse language in an attempt to demonstrate how highly intellectual you are

and you are hoping the logical supposition would be that you indeed have a winning system

yet, once again like all of the other system protagonists (bet selection and/or money management) you offer no proof

polysyllabic words and abstruse language and all - you're of the same species as all of the others

no one has ever proved such a thing and on one ever will

including you

.

Quote: noah

After several years of dedicated research, our team is ready to share an important milestone. We have constructed and successfully tested a multi-system scientific framework that, in our extensive simulations and practical applications, has demonstrated the ability to consistently extract edge from the game of baccarat....
link to original post

I'm 99.9999% sure this is a scam. I'll continue to keep the thread open in the name of free speech. Please, nobody message the OP and ask to buy it.

It’s not that I’m deliberately using sophisticated vocabulary — it’s just that I can’t disclose too much information. So I have to rely on technical terms to avoid revealing key details.

All you really need to understand is the basic theory, and that baccarat can be beaten. That’s why I’m only sharing the theoretical foundation.

Also, I’m Chinese and my English isn’t very good, so I’m using AI translation.

I'm guessing that your system works only against manual shoes and not automatic or continuous shuffling machines. Since shorter penetration would probably degrade your signal, what is the minimum acceptable penetration?

My system works fine with automatic shuffling machines but not with CSMs (Continuous Shuffling Machines). However, in Asia, baccarat generally doesn’t use CSMs—so that’s not a concern.

As long as the standard baccarat rules are followed, the system operates without issue. There’s no concept of “penetration” in this context, so it’s not a limiting factor.

1. Characterize Your Shuffler’s Bias
.....Different automatic machines use different riffle- or wash-shuffle algorithms. Slight imperfections (e.g. riffle shuffle patterns, algorithmic “wash”) leave subtle clustering.

Action: Gather a few thousand shoes’ worth of dealt sequences from each machine model you play and compare their baseline entropy curves. This will tell you how “noisy” vs. “structured” each shuffle type is—and let you recalibrate your Talagrand thresholds for each.

2. Fine-Tune Window Lengths
.....If your auto-shuffler tends to leave small riffle-shuffle remnants (e.g. clumps of cards not fully interleaved), you may get entropy collapses early in the shoe. If it does a thorough machine wash, your low-entropy windows cluster later.

Action: Analyze when (hand #) your strongest signals fire on average—then tailor your sliding-window size (e.g. 15–20 hands) and look-back horizon so you catch collapses at maximal signal-to-noise.

Am I getting close?

Yes, you are a smart person,very close

Quote: noah

In a finite, non–independent-and-identically-distributed sequence of outcomes, one can model the series as a stochastic process with memory, whose local information entropy fluctuates around a global baseline. Occasionally, the process experiences a marked “entropy collapse”—a sharp drop in Shannon entropy—indicating that within that short window, outcomes have abnormally clustered or deviated. From the perspective of Talagrand’s concentration inequalities, such a collapse signifies that the conditional distribution over the block has shifted nontrivially away from the overall distribution, momentarily altering the balance of win probabilities.

The central conjecture is that these rare, low-entropy intervals correspond to epochs of enhanced predictability, where the sequence’s inertia or run-dependence becomes strong enough that one outcome (e.g., A over B) enjoys a higher conditional probability than the long-run average. By identifying—but not specifying how—these transient structural shifts, and then placing symmetric, constrained bets exclusively within them (while remaining idle during near-random, high-entropy phases), one theoretically captures the fleeting edge created by the process’s nonstationary information structure.
link to original post

Like Wizard, I am skeptical. The above seems to be the most descriptive post; it refers to entropic inequalities as defined in information theory. Entropy can be thought of as equivalent to a measure of randomness; reductions in entropy correspond to order or lack of randomness - notionally, in the sequence of cards from the shuffler.

Admittedly, I had to look up this definition: "Talagrand's concentration inequality" is an isoperimetric -type inequality for product probability spaces. I'll leave it to the reader to look up the definition of isoperimetric, lol. (I think it means you are applying it to sequences of information of equal string length?)

Apparently, one would need to evaluate the sequence of cards in terms of parameters relevant to Baccarat hand outcome probability and look for so-called shifts/inequalities in product probability spaces (that presumably arise from shuffle imperfections) and exploit instances in which one is in a "rare, low-entropy interval" where outcomes of wagers may theoretically be more predictable.

Intellectually, this application of information theory to gambling is an interesting notion, but highly theoretical. Its application to the sequence of cards from an imperfect shuffler seems like a leap and IMO any practical application gaining an advantage in Baccarat or other card games seems quite unlikely. I'd have to see a lot more to believe the assertions that it can be exploited.

Quote: noah

My system doesn’t predict whether the banker or player wins; it predicts that the next entropy will decrease, giving rise to order from disorder.
link to original post

Unfortunately, I don't know how to place a bet on entropy increasing.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: noah

My system doesn’t predict whether the banker or player wins; it predicts that the next entropy will decrease, giving rise to order from disorder.
link to original post

Unfortunately, I don't know how to place a bet on entropy increasing.
link to original post

I think this is basically a sophisticated analytical tool that is analogous to the simple concept of "clump tracking" in BJ. You'd have to realize, based on evaluations of large amount of data from a shuffler, that you're due for a non-random clump of baccarat outcomes where Outcome A vs Outcome B is more highly likely.

This forum isn’t very convenient for deeper discussions. If you’re interested in exploring these ideas further, feel free to contact me on WhatsApp: ----.

Quote: noah

This forum isn’t very convenient for deeper discussions. If you’re interested in exploring these ideas further, feel free to contact me on WhatsApp: ----.
link to original post

Sanitized per moderator

Quote: noah

This forum isn’t very convenient for deeper discussions. If you’re interested in exploring these ideas further, feel free to contact me on WhatsApp: ----.
link to original post

Ah, there it is.