true8gambling
• Posts: 6
Joined: Jul 18, 2024
July 24th, 2024 at 10:04:57 AM permalink
When it comes to Martingale, the win a candy and lose a factory would close all eyes and discussions ends.
The first thing to think about is what is the Math that decides win and losses in a game? The odds of course. Odds is actually probability and payout ratio. Probability is calculated in percentages and payout ratio is how much more or less to the wager. The House Edge is the little difference that the House takes whether it is probability or payout ratio to their advantage.
However the word Odds is often mistakenly or mixed use as probability alone. What are my odds of winning instead of what is the probability of me winning.People almost never answer the payout ratio part but only disclose the probability part. If Odds are the deciding factor in Gambling games, then why are people separating or come to the conclusion that Martingale is a disaster and not flat betting? Don't both of these types of wagers facing the same ODDS when playing the same game?

IMO, using Martingale is can be even MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN FLAT BETTING. Look at the differences.
Martingale gives you more flexibility if you have the right mindset and approach because you can now win FRACTIONAL units with enormous probability.
Flat Betting will result in full unit win or loss and imagine if you are down 5 full units, the level of patience and discipline you need to have to pull even again. This is very testy isn't it. Try observing someone who flat bets in Baccarat.They can sit out 10 hands when winning and NOT more than 3 hands when losing. The one important good thing about Martingale is it goes with all the basic Human behavior in Gambling which is chasing your losses. Its either ahead or lose it all. Just plan your work and work your plan. No deviation or indecision and LET THE WINS COME TO YOU instead of going for it with Flat Betting.

Please note that I am not talking about whether the end result which is WIN or LOSE. I am talking about the flexibility and consistency of execution in using Martingale.
Let me give you an example why Martingale is the most conservative way of playing.

5 step Marty 1-2-4-8-16 for a 31 unit SERIES bankroll \$930
37 units of \$25 flat betting totaling \$925
Same bankroll total. I can use Hit & Run with 5 step Marty by using a trigger which is moderately hard to come or not too common in occurrences. Make 20 fractional units in a day and quit. Lets say there are BUSTS along the way at a rate of 29 Fractional units to one 31 units series bankroll, I am only down a little.
Using Flat Betting if in a losing situation, you really need to be a Saint with discipline and control to keep the losses amount down.

We are not talking about winning with both approaches because everyone can talk about how they win and almost nothing about how they lose. My discussion is about how to have the right mindset using Martingale and the approach can be a conservative one.
tuttigym
• Posts: 1945
Joined: Feb 12, 2010
July 24th, 2024 at 10:47:37 AM permalink
Quote: true8gambling

When it comes to Martingale, the win a candy and lose a factory would close all eyes and discussions ends.
The first thing to think about is what is the Math that decides win and losses in a game? The odds of course. Odds is actually probability and payout ratio. Probability is calculated in percentages and payout ratio is how much more or less to the wager. The House Edge is the little difference that the House takes whether it is probability or payout ratio to their advantage.
However the word Odds is often mistakenly or mixed use as probability alone. What are my odds of winning instead of what is the probability of me winning.People almost never answer the payout ratio part but only disclose the probability part. If Odds are the deciding factor in Gambling games, then why are people separating or come to the conclusion that Martingale is a disaster and not flat betting? Don't both of these types of wagers facing the same ODDS when playing the same game?

IMO, using Martingale is can be even MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN FLAT BETTING. Look at the differences.
Martingale gives you more flexibility if you have the right mindset and approach because you can now win FRACTIONAL units with enormous probability.
Flat Betting will result in full unit win or loss and imagine if you are down 5 full units, the level of patience and discipline you need to have to pull even again. This is very testy isn't it. Try observing someone who flat bets in Baccarat.They can sit out 10 hands when winning and NOT more than 3 hands when losing. The one important good thing about Martingale is it goes with all the basic Human behavior in Gambling which is chasing your losses. Its either ahead or lose it all. Just plan your work and work your plan. No deviation or indecision and LET THE WINS COME TO YOU instead of going for it with Flat Betting.

Please note that I am not talking about whether the end result which is WIN or LOSE. I am talking about the flexibility and consistency of execution in using Martingale.
Let me give you an example why Martingale is the most conservative way of playing.

5 step Marty 1-2-4-8-16 for a 31 unit SERIES bankroll \$930
37 units of \$25 flat betting totaling \$925
Same bankroll total. I can use Hit & Run with 5 step Marty by using a trigger which is moderately hard to come or not too common in occurrences. Make 20 fractional units in a day and quit. Lets say there are BUSTS along the way at a rate of 29 Fractional units to one 31 units series bankroll, I am only down a little.
Using Flat Betting if in a losing situation, you really need to be a Saint with discipline and control to keep the losses amount down.

We are not talking about winning with both approaches because everyone can talk about how they win and almost nothing about how they lose. My discussion is about how to have the right mindset using Martingale and the approach can be a conservative one.

I find the overall concept here intriguing especially the "probability" part.

I used this concept in Wizard's craps simulation game. I played the doey/don't and after a point was established, I played just the 6 for one unit. If the 6 hit, I repeated the bet and kept repeating it until a 7 out. The next point I played the 6 for 2 units and played it out and so on. The most 7 outs before a 6 showed again was 4 so that my bet progressed to 4 units before I won again. The probability of the 6 or 8 showing is 14% of the time, however, because the only time one would lose that bet is when the 7 out happens otherwise no harm no foul, and the 7 occurs only 16.6% of the time making this Marty very viable.

I need to clarify my experiment in that the Marty I used was modified and not a true Martingale doubling the original bet upon a loss. When I lost to a 7 out, I increased the wager by one unit each time until I won. Then I started over again. One other thing, if I did not have the dice in hand, I would not play the PL/Don't Pass.

tuttigym
Last edited by: tuttigym on Jul 24, 2024
ThatDonGuy
• Posts: 6471
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
July 24th, 2024 at 4:14:53 PM permalink
IMO, there is only one time when Martingale makes sense: if you are playing a "play until you reach a target profit or you lose your entire bankroll" strategy, and your first bet is the target amount.

For example, if you want to make \$100 and can afford (and are willing to risk) a \$6300 bankroll, your bets are 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200. The minute you win, walk away from the table. Flat betting to do this requires far more bets, and every bet exposes more money to the house edge.
true8gambling
• Posts: 6
Joined: Jul 18, 2024
July 24th, 2024 at 11:59:39 PM permalink
Martingale is bad if you treat it as a money printing method playing too many hands with a catch me if you can mentality. Lets take real life happenings. If a weak country were to go to war with a strong country, they will surely lose. We cannot go to war with the casinos. We have to act like terrorists sucker punching our way to victory. We can win by capitalizing FRACTIONAL units with PROBABILITY which only a negative progression can provide. Its all about getting the units that can cover a series bankroll loss. The residual units after that can then be regarded as profits.
Most people were too quick to spend their winnings with Martingale and when the BUST comes, they are actually in the red. Charting can't be stressed enough when using Martingale. I know for sure there are syndicates employing people to use an 8 step Martingale at the Macau Casinos. They have to wait for certain triggers at every table and win those fractional units. As long as overall wins can cover a busts, I don't see playing this way is by any means bad.
true8gambling
• Posts: 6
Joined: Jul 18, 2024
July 25th, 2024 at 12:10:40 AM permalink
There is a problem IMO with your method. The one thing that kills the don;t player is not people making the established point. It is usually the come out roll which gives the right bettor 8 ways to win a only 4 ways to lose.
Concerning the 6 and 8, you are using Tier betting and it is good BUT you need to be selective here. Playing with every opportunity is NEVER good with a progression.

Your mindset must be AVOIDING the losses and NOT going for the wins.Big, big difference IMO.
Famous words the casinos like to hear.
Lets see how it goes!
I came here to gamble!
I bet I can't lose!
BE A CASINO "TERRORIST"
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6818
Joined: May 8, 2015
July 25th, 2024 at 6:22:14 AM permalink
.
I'm not claiming that it is a long run winner or that it overcomes the house edge -

my favorite way to play on the Wiz's free craps game is this:

bet pass for example for \$100

for example the no. comes as 6

then bet \$100 on the 4,5,8,9, 10 and \$50 on the field

if you wipeout you lose \$650

but because you win \$ 5 out of 6 times you can sometimes have some very, very long streaks before you wipeout

I have run the profit up to \$5K before wiping out on one occasion

if I hit the number before wiping out I just start over with a Pass bet

.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him