Question for the Wizard (and other math gurus)

Hello, Yes I am new. And based what I read in the forum rules, since this is a betting system, this is where I need to post this question and face the ridicule. 😂. However, I would still like to know the math. Here’s my question:

Dear Wizard,

I was hoping you might consider my question. I know from reading your website that betting systems do not work, they don’t even dent the house edge. However I want to look at the D’Alambert betting system and a true 50/50 game but that does not pay 1:1. I am assuming the D’Alambert over time does not work because there is no true 50/50 game in the casino that pays1:1. The closest being BlackJack at its best with a 49.5/50.5 game paying 1:1 and if I look at craps on the just the Don’t Pass its ~48.5/51.5 paying 1:1.

But what if it was a true 50/50? Am I wrong to think that if you only played 4 and 10 place bets with them always turned on, would that not be a true 50/50 game. 6 ways to roll a 4 or 10 vs 6 ways to roll a 7. However the payout is 9:5. When i calculated how many levels (at $5 dollar table, so starting at $5 dollar bets and $5 dollar units), before you would not get payed more than what you played the last level, I only got to level 11. If you buy the 4 and 10 for 5%, starting at level 4 ($20 bets), then you could make it to level 22 before your winnings from that level would no longer pay for the last level.

So knowing that you can bust at level 22, which is where you will not be able to catch back up from previous levels, does the D’Alambert system work better here since it is a true 50/50 game? What would the house edge be or maybe better what would my risk of ruin be (as a percentage)? Is this a better way to gamble vs just a Don’t pass 48/52 style game that pays 1:1 using the same D’Alambert system? Or is this just another lesson in house edge is always the same, no system will ever dent it, just flat bet and have fun. LOL.

Thank you for you time,

afreakofnature

P.S. I would still be curious about the math on it, even if it is all bogus thinking. Thank you!

The 4 & 10 is not a 50/50 game , it's a 33.3/66.7 game. It also has a horrible house edge unless you are taking odds on the line. I suppose that means you could rack up an unusual amount of losses in a row before even getting one win. You keep increasing your bet one unit on each loss, you'll get to your max soon enough, and you won't get corresponding wins to bring your bets back down. You'll get 20 losses and 10 wins on a good day.

As for running a simple progression on the PL versus the DP or the DC, I'd choose the DC over the DP because come-out shooters seem to roll a bit more 7-11's intentionally, whether statistics verifies that is up to your luck.

As for BJ, there's always the chance of getting up to 4 hands to double down on a number of times so that may skew whatever system you're using. The losing streaks may number up to 15 in a row or less on single hands, they may only be punctuated by a couple wins followed by another string of losses in a bad shoe. You could lose 20+ hands in a shoe. You could also win 20+ hands in a shoe, but I don't know the pit policies of their shuffling up to avoid that.

The odds and payouts don't have anything to do with it, so true 50/50 odds or even money payouts don't matter.

What matters is that if you make a series of bets and each bet has a certain fixed EV (expressed as a percentage of the bet), then the average EV of all of your action will have that same EV expressed as a percentage of the total action.

This will hold true of every betting system.

I guess I use something like the D’Alambert when I play casino bonuses. Of course the house edge doesn’t change but I think the bet sizing does make sense for how to properly play a bonus. The concept being you want to run it up or bust out. So basically I increase my bets when I’m losing and decrease when I win. It can be a very profitable strategy but of course it blows up frequently. I do think it works better than a simple flat betting would in relation to the bonus and the playthrough required. I don’t know if the math would say that though. I like it better than a martingale(which I rarely use) because there’s less of a ramp to a blow up and also you get more coin in.

I play 99% on baccarat or blackjack. If I hit a losing streak I will frequently go down 2 units when I get a blackjack or something. The goal when losing is to just bring the bet size down. If you skip a few units going down that’s ok cause the scalping of the bets makes up for it and if you can manage to break even or just lose a little during the bad streaks that’s ok. It’s amazing though how many hands you can lose. I will play the banker a lot and it’s not uncommon to lose 30 units over 500 hands.

Again it probably doesn’t change anything but I think it’s the right way to play bonuses.

Well……I was dumb. After many sims this doesn’t work like I thought at all. I am ready for public chastising. 😂

Quote: afreakofnature

Well……I was dumb. After many sims this doesn’t work like I thought at all. I am ready for public chastising. 😂
link to original post

On the contrary. If you did some work and came to a better understanding, then you are definitely smarter than almost all of the other system advocates. Many of these system ideas are very seductive. It takes some time to overcome commonly heard intuitive ideas about probability and randomness that are just plain wrong.

It is very refreshing to see someone come here with a system who really wants to understand why they don't change the house edge.

Quote: afreakofnature

Well……I was dumb. After many sims this doesn’t work like I thought at all. I am ready for public chastising. 😂
link to original post

Yeah, you're perfectly fine. You explored it scientifically and determined that what you thought was right is wrong. There's nothing wrong with being wrong; I do it all the time!

The thing to remember is it is the +EV/-EV that matters, not the system itself. One way that I like to think about it is that when you're playing a system, you're forcing the House to, in effect, play the opposite of that system; there's a reason that they don't mind doing that.

Anyone got a +EV way of playing craps? 🤣

Quote: afreakofnature

Anyone got a +EV way of playing craps? 🤣
link to original post

Operate a casino, but be careful. It’s an expensive game to run.

Quote: afreakofnature

Anyone got a +EV way of playing craps? 🤣
link to original post

I don't know how to beat craps straight up, but:
(A) Play DP with 6x odds and get 0.3% or more cashback for your play.
(B) Play with almost any percentage loss rebate. A 5% rebate will be +EV if you play it to win one point.

Quote: Mental

Quote: afreakofnature

Anyone got a +EV way of playing craps? 🤣
link to original post

I don't know how to beat craps straight up, but:
(A) Play DP with 6x odds and get 0.3% or more cashback for your play.
(B) Play with almost any percentage loss rebate. A 5% rebate will be +EV if you play it to win one point.
link to original post

There is a super cool +EV craps system somewhere on here from either Mustang Sally or her uncle. It had to do with the last bet being partial but getting full credit.

Quote: afreakofnature

Anyone got a +EV way of playing craps? 🤣
link to original post

I know that you can force some e-craps machines to return locked bets. I don't know if I could get away with this long enough to make it worth my time.

get chummy with a Darkside player of a certain type. He may hate certain numbers that travel, usually the 6 or the 8, and tells the dealer 'no action' for those and the dealer moves the bet to the DC. He may decline to take the free odds. What you should do if he will let you ... and the dealers will let you ... you should know without being told.

Caveats: this type of person is hard to approach and will be very suspicious. For this reason, I mostly have been unable to get anywhere with them. Your success will take a lot of talent in the charm department.

the latter situation, he taking no free-odds, is very advantageous potentially to you in lowering the HE on your total action but is not +EV actually

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

Wizard is much more intelligent than I am; that being the case, I'd be rather surprised if he addresses your questions.

#3 is also patently ridiculous of you to ask. You have 1,792 (as of this moment) posts and you don't know where to find the Craps page on WoO? I could forgive the first two questions.

Quote: Mission146

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

Wizard is much more intelligent than I am; that being the case, I'd be rather surprised if he addresses your questions.

#3 is also patently ridiculous of you to ask. You have 1,792 (as of this moment) posts and you don't know where to find the Craps page on WoO? I could forgive the first two questions.
link to original post

I can always count on you to avoid the tough questions of fact. If your intellect is not up to answering legitimate questions, I suggest you not post for the Wizard.

As for question #3, the craps page does NOT provide the house edge (HE) for the Place bets only the PL bet. Perhaps you might want to quote what it says regarding the HOUSE EDGE on Place bets if not then adjust your reading skills. THE QUESTION STANDS.

BTW, I do not need YOUR forgiveness. I need valid intellectually correct answers.

Who designated you as "forgiver in chief" and what are your qualifications?

tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

Wizard is much more intelligent than I am; that being the case, I'd be rather surprised if he addresses your questions.

#3 is also patently ridiculous of you to ask. You have 1,792 (as of this moment) posts and you don't know where to find the Craps page on WoO? I could forgive the first two questions.
link to original post

So, you are posting that you are not smart enough to answer those very relevant questions ---- 1 &2?

"patently ridiculous" is your inability perform your "math" at the tables.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

1. No. Same thing.
2. No. It's a combination of both payoff odds and win probabilities.
3. https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
6/8 is 1.515%, 5/9 is 4%, 4/10 is 6.667%.

... And if I screwed up (not unlikely!), I'm happy to hear from one of the math experts.

Quote: Dieter

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

1. No. Same thing.
2. No. It's a combination of both payoff odds and win probabilities.
3. https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
6/8 is 1.515%, 5/9 is 4%, 4/10 is 6.667%.

... And if I screwed up (not unlikely!), I'm happy to hear from one of the math experts.
link to original post

Thanks dieter, very helpful.

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Dieter

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

1. No. Same thing.
2. No. It's a combination of both payoff odds and win probabilities.
3. https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
6/8 is 1.515%, 5/9 is 4%, 4/10 is 6.667%.

... And if I screwed up (not unlikely!), I'm happy to hear from one of the math experts.
link to original post

Thanks dieter, very helpful.
link to original post

Next question: AFTER the point is established, how do those HE numbers above affect the PL HE? Doesn't the PL HE increase commensurate with the diminished probability of the point conversion?

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Dieter

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

1. No. Same thing.
2. No. It's a combination of both payoff odds and win probabilities.
3. https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/appendix/1/
6/8 is 1.515%, 5/9 is 4%, 4/10 is 6.667%.

... And if I screwed up (not unlikely!), I'm happy to hear from one of the math experts.
link to original post

Thanks dieter, very helpful.
link to original post

Next question: AFTER the point is established, how do those HE numbers above affect the PL HE? Doesn't the PL HE increase commensurate with the diminished probability of the point conversion?

tuttigym
link to original post

We've been through this before.
Unless you're putting chips on the line after the come-out, you had a chance to 7 or 11 on the first roll and pick up the easy win.
Yes, your chances to win are lower after the first roll, but there are what... 8/36 come out wins, vs 4/36 come out losers.
Chance of a 7-out is 6/36 every roll, vs whatever the chance of making the point is (always less).

You can't take down your line bet, right? It's contracted?
You're in until it resolves. House edge on the line is 1.414%, unless you do something ridiculous like place a line bet when the puck is on a point. (Don't do that; it's a sucker bet at that point.)

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

Quote: tuttigym

Since this thread is about math questions for the Wizard, I have several. I ask because I do not know the answers.

1. Is there a difference between the House Edge (HE) and the House Advantage (HA)?

2. Does the HE equate to the actual odds of winning or losing a given wager?

3. What is the HE on the 6 or 8 place bet? the 5 or 9 place bet? the 4 or 10 place bet?

More questions to follow.

tuttigym
link to original post

Wizard is much more intelligent than I am; that being the case, I'd be rather surprised if he addresses your questions.

#3 is also patently ridiculous of you to ask. You have 1,792 (as of this moment) posts and you don't know where to find the Craps page on WoO? I could forgive the first two questions.
link to original post

I can always count on you to avoid the tough questions of fact. If your intellect is not up to answering legitimate questions, I suggest you not post for the Wizard.

As for question #3, the craps page does NOT provide the house edge (HE) for the Place bets only the PL bet. Perhaps you might want to quote what it says regarding the HOUSE EDGE on Place bets if not then adjust your reading skills. THE QUESTION STANDS.

BTW, I do not need YOUR forgiveness. I need valid intellectually correct answers.

Who designated you as "forgiver in chief" and what are your qualifications?

tuttigym
link to original post

You'll forgive me if I gave you more credit than I should have. Given that you are clearly more intelligent than I am, the amount of time (and volume) with which you have posted here, my assumption that you know how to browse WoO and that you were asking a question specifically about the House Edge of Craps:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/#defining-the-house-edge

I took it for granted that you would have visited the Craps page titled, 'Defining the House Edge.'

In my opinion, the only thing requiring forgiveness is the fact that, once again, you appear in a thread with posts prattling on about your skepticism of the House Edge, and also:

Quote: tuttigym

So, you are posting that you are not smart enough to answer those very relevant questions ---- 1 &2?

"patently ridiculous" is your inability perform your "math" at the tables.

tuttigym

Once again. The difference is, this time, you didn't even need me to meaningfully engage your nonsensical queries before we get into your, 'math at the tables' nonsense. That's why I said Wizard is simply too intelligent to reply to your post; he's already aware of the inevitable endgame.

Anyway, I again invite you to try the, 'Math,' with a coin-flipping game. We meet up and you may recall the rules:

1.) Three heads in a row-I win $20.

2.) Any other result-I lose $1.

3.) The game continues until one of us is busted or I say it ends.

I really don't understand why you wouldn't want to play. You seem to think House Edge is non-existent and your probability of winning any individual trial of my coin-flipping game is significant.

But, let me take a second and do the most charitable thing I've ever done on here; I am going to pretend that your posts have enough merit to be taken seriously. What I'm not going to do is have the same conversation, yet again, that we've already had seventy-three (intentional hyperbole) times.

I saw your question:

Quote:

Next question: AFTER the point is established, how do those HE numbers above affect the PL HE? Doesn't the PL HE increase commensurate with the diminished probability of the point conversion?

tuttigym

Is this a standalone question or do you plan to do this whole one question at a time thing? I'm not participating unless:

A.) This is a standalone question.

OR:

B.) You present all questions you're going to have at once.

I do have a few questions for you, so I will be graceful enough to answer this one. After this, if you have any further questions, please present anything you're going to have all at once. If I'm going to waste my time responding to you, then I at least want to do it efficiently.

The House Edge of the Pass Line bet is relative to when you make the bet, so the House Edge of the Pass Line bet itself is unchanged when the point is established. The only thing that changes is your probability of winning (which is decreased); because your probability of winning is now decreased, your expected outcome ($$$) is also less than it was prior to the Come Out roll being made. However, that does not change the House Edge of the bet at the time that you made it.

You could actually do a step-by-step process that isolates the Come Out roll and everything after a point being established. In fact, the House Edge has already considered this. As a standalone:

(8/36) - (4/36) = 0.11111111111

The expected result of the Come Out roll is +.111111111 multiplied by each dollar you bet. As you point out, the negative expectation of a point being established (and the probability and expectation for each individual point number) is what causes the Pass Line to have a House Edge, rather than a player edge. Indeed, if you could bet Come Out rolls only, then you would play with a substantial advantage given that 7 and 11 win and only 2, 3 and 12 lose. Much to your probable chagrin, there is also a mathematical explanation for that.

Here are my questions:

1.) Do you believe the House Edge is valid?

1a.) If no, then why not?

2.) What theory do you have that might explain the operation of Place Bets if you think House Edge is invalid?

3.) Do you assume that, given the generally accepted payouts, the casino has an advantage when a player makes a Place Bet?

3a.) If no, then do you believe Place Bets are a breakeven proposition?

3b.) If yes, then why does the casino have the advantage and how would you explain where the casino's advantage comes from?

I have a question for Mission.
Why bother?

Quote: billryan

I have a question for Mission.
Why bother?
link to original post

A man can’t change his nature.

Quote: Mission146

Anyway, I again invite you to try the, 'Math,' with a coin-flipping game. We meet up and you may recall the rules:

1.) Three heads in a row-I win $20.

2.) Any other result-I lose $1.

3.) The game continues until one of us is busted or I say it ends.

link to original post

Quote: Mission146

The House Edge of the Pass Line bet is relative to when you make the bet, so the House Edge of the Pass Line bet itself is unchanged when the point is established. The only thing that changes is your probability of winning (which is decreased); because your probability of winning is now decreased, your expected outcome ($$$) is also less than it was prior to the Come Out roll being made. However, that does not change the House Edge of the bet at the time that you made it.

Thanks, Mission, this paragraph actually defines how irrelevant the HE is in that you state that the HE has nothing to do with the probability of winning.

You see my next question is can the HE on any given wager be converted to the odds of winning a bet. Your statement above emphatically says NO. So whether the HE is real or not, according to you, it is meaningless because the value of winning any given wager is not changed by whatever the HE might be.

With that now being resolved, what is the relevance of any HE figure?

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

Quote: Mission146

The House Edge of the Pass Line bet is relative to when you make the bet, so the House Edge of the Pass Line bet itself is unchanged when the point is established. The only thing that changes is your probability of winning (which is decreased); because your probability of winning is now decreased, your expected outcome ($$$) is also less than it was prior to the Come Out roll being made. However, that does not change the House Edge of the bet at the time that you made it.

Thanks, Mission, this paragraph actually defines how irrelevant the HE is in that you state that the HE has nothing to do with the probability of winning.

You see my next question is can the HE on any given wager be converted to the odds of winning a bet. Your statement above emphatically says NO. So whether the HE is real or not, according to you, it is meaningless because the value of winning any given wager is not changed by whatever the HE might be.

With that now being resolved, what is the relevance of any HE figure?

tuttigym
link to original post

This is what makes this, in my opinion, a troll post.

The House Edge is represented by two things:

1.) The amount to be won or lost, pursuant to the final outcome. The Pass Line bet is binary (you either win or lose the amount bet), but something such as Video Poker is not binary. Given that you have been registered here for almost fourteen years, and have almost 1,800 posts, if the House Edge for a binary outcome is difficult for you to comprehend, then I would simply avoid all games with non-binary outcomes, if I were you.

2.) The probability of each outcome.

The House Edge does relate to the probability of winning a Pass Line bet. Prior to the Come Out roll being made, the probability of winning is 49.29% and the probability of losing is 50.71%. It is from those probabilities that the House Edge is derived.

If there is a point established, then your probability of winning decreases.

The House Edge has already accounted for that by looking at the overall probability of winning. If you isolate the Come Out roll, then you are more likely to win than lose (though most likely to establish a point); if you isolate a point being established, then you are more likely to lose than win.

Anyway, the House Edge only cares what the probability of each binary outcome is (winning v. losing). The House Edge has already taken into account the probabilities of establishing any given point and winning, or losing, as the House Edge has taken the sum of probabilities for all losing outcomes and compared it to the sum of probabilities for all winning outcomes.

In other words, prior to you making the bet, you had a 49.29% probability of winning. The probability of winning decreases if you establish a point, but the House Edge has already accounted for that fact.

Really, I should make a complaint for misquoting; the only thing stopping me is the thought of you actually taking what I said that way, as opposed to deliberately pretending to misunderstand it, is much more amusing. I absolutely did not say the HE has nothing to do with the probability of winning.

Your next question would have been stupid because the probability of winning a bet is only one factor of what makes up the House Edge*. For example, if the Pass Line bet paid 2:1, but otherwise had the same function/rules, then there would be a substantial player advantage (in other words, the House Edge would change). The probability of winning wouldn't be any different, but the House Edge would.

*ADDED: For example, if Video Poker consisted only of losing one unit or winning one unit, then Jacks or Better would be a pretty bad game, from a House Edge standpoint. Fortunately, that's where the pays for different results come into play. Asking if the House Edge can be converted to the Odds of winning a bet (as a rule) is like asking if a car can be converted to its motor without the other parts.

14 years later and this is the exact same discussion.