minnesotajoe
minnesotajoe
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December 18th, 2010 at 9:37:52 AM permalink
I have spent many nights thinking of betting systems and bet size structures... unsuprisingly have always found that the House still holds an advtange on each one.

Lets say that a casino offered a game where they would flip an unbiased coin and you could bet on heads or tails. The casino agreed to pay Even money on both heads and tails. Since the casino has 0 edge on this.... would there be any betting system that could guarantee a player profit. Assumption that player has a bankroll of and the casino accepts a maximum bet of 10,000 units
JohnnyQ
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December 18th, 2010 at 9:42:19 AM permalink
I was in a seminar recently where the instructor used a 1000 trial coin flip as an example. After 1000 flips, the typical result was further from "even" than most people would have expected (although the most frequent result would be "even", if I recall correctly and was paying attention).

I'll leave further commentary to the WIZ and MATHEXTREMIST.
There's emptiness behind their eyes There's dust in all their hearts They just want to steal us all and take us all apart
darkoz
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December 18th, 2010 at 10:32:03 AM permalink
If you could explain how the most frequent results are even while the typical results are not???

That seems to contradict each other.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
SOOPOO
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December 18th, 2010 at 10:55:39 AM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

I have spent many nights thinking of betting systems and bet size structures... unsuprisingly have always found that the House still holds an advtange on each one.

Lets say that a casino offered a game where they would flip an unbiased coin and you could bet on heads or tails. The casino agreed to pay Even money on both heads and tails. Since the casino has 0 edge on this.... would there be any betting system that could guarantee a player profit. Assumption that player has a bankroll of and the casino accepts a maximum bet of 10,000 units



No
mkl654321
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:08:40 AM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

I have spent many nights thinking of betting systems and bet size structures... unsuprisingly have always found that the House still holds an advtange on each one.

Lets say that a casino offered a game where they would flip an unbiased coin and you could bet on heads or tails. The casino agreed to pay Even money on both heads and tails. Since the casino has 0 edge on this.... would there be any betting system that could guarantee a player profit. Assumption that player has a bankroll of and the casino accepts a maximum bet of 10,000 units



The very statement, "the casino has 0 edge on this" is EXACTLY EQUIVALENT to the statement, "there is no betting system that could guarantee a player profit". In other words, the two statements are expressing the same concept. Re-word the first statement to say, "the PLAYER has zero edge on this", and you'll see what I mean.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
AZDuffman
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:15:53 AM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

I have spent many nights thinking of betting systems and bet size structures... unsuprisingly have always found that the House still holds an advtange on each one.

Lets say that a casino offered a game where they would flip an unbiased coin and you could bet on heads or tails. The casino agreed to pay Even money on both heads and tails. Since the casino has 0 edge on this.... would there be any betting system that could guarantee a player profit. Assumption that player has a bankroll of and the casino accepts a maximum bet of 10,000 units



No. Taken in the most simple terms the expected return here is 1.0. If B is amount bet then expected return is B* 1.0. Same as if a BJ game had a house edge of 1% abd thus a "return" of .99 then expected return would be B * .99. No matter how you vary the bets the return is always the same. As the wiz says, "No betting system can beat a negative expectation game." So none also can turn a neutral expectation game positive.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
aahigh
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:21:19 AM permalink
Even more interesting: if you had several million dollars or even a billion dollars and wanted to open up your own casino to make a killing .. there is no "system" to guarantee a profit from operating a casino WITH A HOUSE EDGE.

I have never been a millionaire myself, but I had almost $900,000 in liquid assets back in 2006. One of the things that I learned (the hard way) is there is absolutely no such thing as a guarantee about anything. I lost almost everything I had money wise, AND if I had it to do all over again .. I would even do it the same way. You can definitely buy insurance to cushion yourself against certain events, but even that doesn't guarantee anything. My mistake was that I bought a house and stayed married to the same person in California for more than 10 years to someone who quit working two weeks after we got married. It seems like that wouldn't wipe out a million bucks, but you'd be surprised.

Back in 2004 and 2005 a lot of people believed that property values only went up, and that casinos couldn't possibly lose, and other things relating to what was guaranteed.

But again, there is no such thing: just believing in something doesn't make it true.

Another point that I would like to make is that if you do aspire to be a millionaire (or better) you are going to have to take risks and be willing to lose. When you go to the casino, they are giving you some of the most inexpensive paths to making money by taking risks. The only downside is that you don't have the edge in the events, so you had better not take too many of them. But you can in fact win.

If you want to be guaranteed of being successful, you also need an edge, and probably bigger than a measly one percent (unless you have a LOT of money and do a LOT of transactions).

The mega rich love anything that returns 10% or more yearly. I have made 35% in the stock market so far this year trading a single stock (swing trading) and by focusing on that stock .. feeling that I might have an edge over others who are trading it. Much of this may have been from the same risk I would face in the casino, but it's all in my 401k, so at least I don't have to worry about taxes.

If you want to learn how to be the one with the edge, there are plenty of transactions you can search for that will lead to better opportunities than to spend a lot of time taking risks in the form of bets against a casino. In the low denomination world, you could risk digging in the garbage for valuable items, and then either redeem them at the recycling center, or sell them somewhere, or use (or eat) them yourself. That's a very nearly guaranteed profit if you also eat from the garbage and walk them to the center or ride them there on a bicycle that you found. Most people recognize that this is a guaranteed way to come out "ahead."

However, as you start looking at transactions where you are looking for dollars at a time or hundreds of dollars at a time, you find out there is a lot more competition from people who are not fit for the funny farm.

Good luck finding the guarantees you seek! They are out there, just not in the casino. There you will only find gambling. But you will also find gambling embedded in just about everything else you do, so it's good to practice gambling in an isolated environment until you fully understand and appreciate it and how to use it to get ahead when combined with other things that do give you an edge, if not a guarantee.

The biggest edge you can give yourself is called education. And in this world, at least you have the internet (and the world) at your fingertips. So keep trying and you will get it eventually.
MathExtremist
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:23:20 AM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

I have spent many nights thinking of betting systems and bet size structures... unsuprisingly have always found that the House still holds an advtange on each one.

Lets say that a casino offered a game where they would flip an unbiased coin and you could bet on heads or tails. The casino agreed to pay Even money on both heads and tails. Since the casino has 0 edge on this.... would there be any betting system that could guarantee a player profit. Assumption that player has a bankroll of and the casino accepts a maximum bet of 10,000 units



No -- there is no betting system that can "overcome" or "improve" the house edge on a game, regardless of what that house edge is. Even if it's zero, and even if it's positive. In other words, if you have a +EV game, whatever betting strategy you use won't change the amount of the +EV edge. (This doesn't hold for games like BJ, where a basic-strategy zero-EV top-of-the-deck game is likely to be positive using a composition-dependent strategy based on the first 3 cards.)

I've done some work for online casinos that offer zero-EV games. I know they did a roulette game with normal payouts but no zeroes on the wheel, and I helped them figure out a near-zero-EV version of Red Dog. The point is, they're not worried about systems. You shouldn't be either.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
minnesotajoe
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:25:11 AM permalink
Thank you all for the replies.

I found them all useful. I found it interesting that a game with a positive Player advantage.. that a betting system wouldn't work either. I never really thought about it... but yea, in the long run it should come out the same.
AZDuffman
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:26:22 AM permalink
Quote: aahigh

.

I have never been a millionaire myself, but I had almost $900,000 in liquid assets back in 2006. One of the things that I learned (the hard way) is there is absolutely no such thing as a guarantee about anything. I lost almost everything I had money wise, AND if I had it to do all over again .. I would even do it the same way. You can definitely buy insurance to cushion yourself against certain events, but even that doesn't guarantee anything. My mistake was that I bought a house and stayed married to the same person in California for more than 10 years to someone who quit working two weeks after we got married. It seems like that wouldn't wipe out a million bucks, but you'd be surprised.



I used to hear about the dangers of this from Tom Leykis daily. Being in a job where I read divorce paperwork fairly regular it is scary. But the worst was this. The years have been estimated as I forget the exacts.


2003 Guy owns house in his own name.

2005 Guy quit-claims his wife onto the house.

2007 Guy gets quit-claimed OFF the house as part of the divorce settlement.



OUCH.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
FleaStiff
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:26:22 AM permalink
The player can walk, the casino has to book the bets. So a smart player would take advantage of "being ahead" even though it was pure chance and a casino would have to let the next player have a go at it. So a disciplined player might do okay as would a lucky player from time to time, but overall it would still be profitable for the casino because anything that gets them in the door is good.

If this game is ever offered, there will be no seats at the table, you will have to stand. Eventually, you want to go to some 8 percent slot machine just so you can sit down. THEN this coin toss game will turn profitable for the casino.
TheNightfly
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BlackjackLover
December 18th, 2010 at 11:27:52 AM permalink
In a live trial it is very rare that actual results would precisely duplicate the expected or theoretical results. This is why simulations are run with trials numbering in the billions - this is the only way to get results that will show closer to the true return based upon the odds of the game.

For example, If you took your 50/50 coin flip and ran 100 trials, you might find that heads came up more often than tails. This in no way means that the coin is biased or that betting on heads would yield a positive return in the future. This is why people use the term "in the long run". In the long run we know that results will be very close to the expected 50/50 but even over billions of trials it is very unlikely that there will be a perfectly even distribution. Even if after 1 Billion flips of the coin you find that the results show 50.0001% heads which is very close to the expected result, you'd still have 500,001,000 heads and 499,999,000 tails. In other words, anyone who had bet heads all the way would be ahead of the game by 1,000 units. There are people who, after having bet heads and being ahead would say that the coin is biased or that they've "found a system" and that they can prove this by showing a profit. Keep in mind however that anyone who had bet tails would be behind by the exact same amount. After the simulation has been run it is easy to say, "Well, if I had done this I would have won" and call it a winning system. The problem with this way of thinking is that you can only arrive at this conclusion after the fact. If you were to be heads for the next billion flips you could just as easily be on the losing side.

There is therefore no way to guarantee a profit. You will never know what the future results will be and therefore will not know what to bet on. If someone tries a martingale (doubling after a loss), if they have a limited bankroll of 10,000 units and a table limit of 10,000 units, it is entirely possible that they might hit a losing streak long enough to lose their entire bankroll or hit the table limit and in either case lose everything.

There are people who will tell you that it is so unlikely that this will happen that a player can ALWAYS be ahead at some point and that all you have to do when you're ahead is to stop, pocket your winnings and begin again. It sounds so easy and it seems so plausible that many, many people have believed it must work. Unfortunately, for every person who has tried it and found that it worked for them, many other people have found that it didn't work and they lost their bankroll... and in the end the house makes the amount of money from ALL of these wagers that will be close to the expected edge for the game.

In the example of the coin flips with an expected result of a 50/50 distibution, if you took 10 or 100 or 1,000 or any amount of players all using their systems, a small few might end up ahead but the majority of them would wind up losing and the amount of these losses would be roughly equal to the amount of the wins by the other players... and the casino would most likley break even. Casinos don't mind when people win... it is bound to happen from time to time but they know that in the "long run" they will recoup that money from other players or from the same player who believes he has found a winning system. Keeping in mind that all table games (not including BJ when played by an experienced counter) have a built in house edge, the casino will make money in the long run.

For any player who says that they've found a system at roulette, craps, baccarat or any other game, they are simply one of the fortunate few who are on the winning side of things for the time being. Not only has the house made up for their wins from all of the other players who have lost, that fortunate player will eventually end up on the losing side as well if they keep playing... the house edge will get them whether they like it or not. Anyone who disagrees with this fact is either deluded, lying or just very, very fortunate and the casino coudn't care less either way.

Hopefully this answers your question.
Happiness is underrated
MathExtremist
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:27:55 AM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

Thank you all for the replies.

So under the assumption that no casnio game/bet holds a player advantage... there is no point in thinking of betting systems/structures because the House Advantage will ultimately prevail. My best bet is just to continue to study the games and bet knowing what the House Advantage is



Your assumption isn't correct -- there are some games, under some conditions, which do yield a player advantage, but betting systems have nothing to do with that advantage. Regardless, the last part is always very good advice.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
minnesotajoe
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:34:50 AM permalink
@ aahigh

Thanks for taking the time to write out your personal story. I'll be cautious when I enter into long-term relationships. I hope you have better luck with your finances
minnesotajoe
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December 18th, 2010 at 11:39:07 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Your assumption isn't correct -- there are some games, under some conditions, which do yield a player advantage, but betting systems have nothing to do with that advantage. Regardless, the last part is always very good advice.



I understand that at times in baccarat, depening what cards have been played an outcome can be heavily favored (and possibly a GUARANTEE.. however very unlikely) on either Player, Banker, or Tie.

Same principle applies to blackjack.

My question was aimed at games that are independent trials (roulette, craps, etc)

Thanks though. I'm new to the forum, but I'll def check out most threads here. I hope to see you having posts in blackjack forum!
mkl654321
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December 18th, 2010 at 12:01:50 PM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

Thank you all for the replies.

I found them all useful. I found it interesting that a game with a positive Player advantage.. that a betting system wouldn't work either. I never really thought about it... but yea, in the long run it should come out the same.



Don't be misled! There is no way to GUARANTEE a win with a positive edge, but that does NOT mean that a betting system "wouldn't work either". In fact, with a positive player edge, ALL betting systems would work.

Want empirical proof? The casino has a positive edge; they play any and all "systems" (whatever the players choose); and they always win in the long run.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Asswhoopermcdaddy
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December 19th, 2010 at 5:45:40 PM permalink
Even if a casino was kind enough to give you a -0- HA, they would screw you with risk limits such that it would kill any betting system. The only system that can work is a martingale with infinite capital and infinite max bets. So in your example of a 50/50 coin flip, what happens if the max bet is $100. Short term variance is usually skewed. And since all people are pattern seeking monkeys, I still bet the casino would come out ahead. Afterall, it's gambling.
EvenBob
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December 19th, 2010 at 7:54:27 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman




2003 Guy owns house in his own name.

2005 Guy quit-claims his wife onto the house.

2007 Guy gets quit-claimed OFF the house as part of the divorce settlement.



2008 Guy realizes he's an idiot but gets married again anyway.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rdw4potus
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December 19th, 2010 at 9:44:55 PM permalink
Quote: darkoz

If you could explain how the most frequent results are even while the typical results are not???

That seems to contradict each other.



The most frequent result is even, but with very few instances over many trials. I think the point was that the curve was much flatter than the typical bell curve that most people envision. Say we do the 1000 flips 1000 times. The range of results that we might call "typical" would be from (stated in "heads") -15 to +15, but the most common single outcome would be heads +0.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
android
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February 4th, 2011 at 3:23:38 PM permalink
there is not any betting system that could guarantee a player profit at 0 house edge game because first of all, you should use optimal strategy for this game.
Only if you use optimal strategy you , you will have 0 house edge.
clarkacal
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February 4th, 2011 at 3:43:38 PM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

I have spent many nights thinking of betting systems and bet size structures...



I hope you don't do that anymore.

However I think there is something to be said for flipping the bankroll advantage against the casino. I thought I read somewhere the hold on a non strategy game with a fixed edge (like roulette) was above the mathematical advantage because of betting limits and the 0 risk of ruin of the casino. Could be wrong though.
MathExtremist
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February 4th, 2011 at 5:20:12 PM permalink
Quote: clarkacal

I hope you don't do that anymore.

However I think there is something to be said for flipping the bankroll advantage against the casino. I thought I read somewhere the hold on a non strategy game with a fixed edge (like roulette) was above the mathematical advantage because of betting limits and the 0 risk of ruin of the casino. Could be wrong though.



"Hold" is a different statistic - table win as a percentage of drop. But drop is much, much smaller than total wager. The table win as a percentage of total wager is approximately the EV, just as it is with slot machines (another game with no strategy and a fixed edge).
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Zaphod77
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May 25th, 2011 at 8:15:14 PM permalink
The only way for a betting system to work in the long run is to cheat.

For any sort of betting system to win, you winning bets have to be bigger than your loosing bets. and with a properly setup game, there's no way you can insure that.

With no limits and an infinite bankroll, doubling after loss works, but if you have an infinite bankroll you don't need to gamble.

Also, even with an even money game, the party with the bigger bankroll is more likely to bankrupt the party with the smaller bankroll. This is what is known as the risk of ruin. The casinos have very big bankrolls. If you have one, you don't need to gamble. The only time it makes sense is if you can advantage play.
Curiousguy11
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June 21st, 2011 at 10:22:56 PM permalink
Let's rephrase the question to "how likely will a betting system be ahead after x flips" since no system can "guarantee" a player profit in an even money game.

Take Oscar's Grind for example.

Maybe Miplet can provide input, since he has the software, but, say, I originally have 2 100 unit rolls (a 10,100 original unit roll) in your example. I start every trial with a 100 unit roll with a $1 unit with a goal of winning one unit. Kind of a "dual-layered unit system".

I suppose I'll win that 1 unit 99ish% of the time and lose my 100 units 1%ish of the time.

But every time I lose my original 100 unit roll($100), I start betting a 100 unit roll (with the other $10K) but now with a unit of $100. If i go ahead just that one unit, and have recovered my $100 loss, I go back to a 100 unit roll with a $1 unit.

What are my chances of being ahead (a profit of at least $1) after 5000 or 50000 or 500000 coin flips kind of thing? Or of at least not being broke?

Would my first 100 unit loss be expected around 69-70 trials or so on average?

How many coin flips where I have a 50% of being ahead?

Etc

Is the only reason you have a "betting system" section is to go out of your way to to demean every poster in that section by calling them the "mathematically challenged" especially since all the focus by most posters seems to always be on simplisticly confirming an already-known house edge after a billion trials rather than chances of being ahead, achieving some goal, after a period of time employing a a defined unit roll in some, hopefully, well-defined "betting system".

Why do you apparently assume every "betting-system" player-poster here assumes their system overcomes the house edge? Rather than understanding the trade-off of winning x over y trials while betting one's roll in such-and-such a way?

Did you not use a "betting system" in some TV show or something at roulette trying to maximize CHANCES of winning x over y trials?

What, if you posted your "cancellation system" analysis from your other website here, would that make you mathematically challenged?

OK - I will pay anyone $100 at the beginning of a fair coin-flip game which makes the game +EV. I have $10,100 dollars. I can bet between $1-$1MM using Oscar's Grind. The coin will be flipped 15,000 times.

How the heck will one know to accept this challenge or not without using math?
pacomartin
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June 22nd, 2011 at 5:53:00 AM permalink
Quote: clarkacal

I hope you don't do that anymore.

However I think there is something to be said for flipping the bankroll advantage against the casino. I thought I read somewhere the hold on a non strategy game with a fixed edge (like roulette) was above the mathematical advantage because of betting limits and the 0 risk of ruin of the casino. Could be wrong though.



The hold is much higher than the mathematical advantage of the game because people re-bet their winnings. Hold in table games is defined as the amount the casino keeps as a percentage of the money they cash.

I believe that hold percentage on slots is defined differently. It really is the amount the casino keeps as a percentage of the total money bet. So it much better represents the true mathematical advantage. Of course, all slots are set differently, so it represents a composite average.

You are wrong about it being related to "rzero isk of ruin". However, don't feel badly since it is a very common mistake, even among mathematicians. It seems counter intuitive. The casino can't go bankrupt, and you can so it seems like that should give them an advantage. The Wizard has discussed this point a few times.

Betting limits reduce the variance. Over the long run, they do not increase the expected value. However, a casino is a business like any other. They have cash flow issues. If a blackjack table normally makes $500 a day, and suddenly you have a couple people who are betting $500/hand, they will even out to the expected house advantage in the long term, but the casino is going to have some punishing months.

In the case of casinos that permit $50K to $200K per bet, the universe of people who can bet that much is very limited. So variance is huge. Carl Icahn is permitting the high limits at Tropicana in Atlantic City simply because people are talking about the casino. He feels that in the long run, that will be an advantage.
charliepatrick
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June 22nd, 2011 at 6:21:39 AM permalink
Just out of interest I have seen two casinos that DID offer a 0% game.

They offered Craps allowing only a small variety of bets on a small table. To make the odds easier 4 and 10 paid 2-1, 6 and 8 paid 6-5, Craps paid 8-1. That way they only needed 20p chips (odds on Pass not allowed). Min £1 and Max £25. My strategy, for simplicity, was to start with £1 on 4 and 10, pushing the bet up each time it won.

Most people would include the other bets, so although the house made some money, though probably not enough to cover costs, it meant there was a fun low-stakes table to entice new players. Others in the chain also occasionally had 10p roulette.
pacomartin
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June 22nd, 2011 at 9:50:03 AM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Just out of interest I have seen two casinos that DID offer a 0% game.

They offered Craps allowing only a small variety of bets on a small table. To make the odds easier 4 and 10 paid 2-1, 6 and 8 paid 6-5, Craps paid 8-1. That way they only needed 20p chips (odds on Pass not allowed). Min £1 and Max £25. My strategy, for simplicity, was to start with £1 on 4 and 10, pushing the bet up each time it won.

Most people would include the other bets, so although the house made some money, though probably not enough to cover costs, it meant there was a fun low-stakes table to entice new players. Others in the chain also occasionally had 10p roulette.



Where is this casino? I assume it is in a remote place.

So far on this forum we have had reports of only one casino, Santa Ana Star that offers a zero percent bet (on the 4 and 10). They advertise a free buy on the four and 10 and the best prop bets in the US and 10X odds. But Albuquerque is a smallish city that is at least 400 miles from the next major city.

Are you required to make a pass line bet? In some sense it is nearly a break even since they don't permit odds on pass.
FleaStiff
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June 22nd, 2011 at 12:29:23 PM permalink
Quote: minnesotajoe

The casino agreed to pay Even money on both heads and tails. Since the casino has 0 edge on this....


Since the casino had zero edge on this, you know the quality of the booze they would serve, its frequency and its amount. You also know how much that cocktail waitress would be paid and you probably have a rough idea of what she might look like. You also know that since anyone who was winning could simply take their marbles and go home (along with some of the casinos marbles) just how long this game would last. Plus you know just how much the executive pensions will be making on this game.

So if you want to engage in betting systems, you go right ahead. Casinos offer games WITH a house edge. Anything without a house edge or with a Positive expectation for the player is either an accident or some sort of "come-on". Even the persistent loss-leader of Bingo is only marginal and only on the Odd Hours since the slot machine's 12 percent house edge works on the Even Hours.

So free booze, free coffee, free donuts, free lunch, free parking ... Yes.
Free odds at craps... Yes.
A few other smatterings here and there: Free rolls and Free Play and Free Spins.

But the casino executive who wants a game that will fund his pension payments sure ain't a gonna introduce no Toss of a Fair Coin at Even Money game.
charliepatrick
charliepatrick
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June 22nd, 2011 at 6:54:32 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Where is this casino? I assume it is in a remote place.

I saw it last year and was in the Gala chain in Northampton[UK] and Bournemouth (each have other casinos in the same town). As I say it was a kind of loss leader. (see here or google "Gala" and "Dice Magic")

btw the best freebie I received, was a Joker that allowed up to one £25 bet on Blackjack that paid 2-1 for any wins including doubles but only one hand of a split. Very interesting to calculate, I actually won a D13v6 once, but haven't seen that one come back since last year.
Curiousguy11
Curiousguy11
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July 26th, 2011 at 5:38:29 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

...I know they did a roulette game with normal payouts but no zeroes on the wheel, .. The point is, they're not worried about systems. You shouldn't be either.



Sorry to dredge this up and stir the pot but what the heck. Nothing personal. I address it to you because you are the Math Guy.

Getting back to Original Poster's post, say a casino does offer a fair coin-flip game with a 1-10000 unit allowable betting range.

Would you, acting as the house, allow me to show up at your house with $10K and agree to limit my play to maximum 8000 coin-flips and allow me to use Oscar's Grind as my betting system with a $1 unit? After all you will have either won my $10K by then or lost some other amount while I employed OG trying to win my one lousy buck per "session" all the while playing a game with no house advantage?

Of course the casino was worried about betting systems in 0 ev games - what spread did they allow in such a game? All we know for pretty sure it wasn't $1000-$10MM. Bill Gates could likely own the casino in a day or two.

How about letting the Wiz post results of 8000 fair coin flips. I trust him. Do you? I will use OG and, if I finish ahead, you send me $100 and, if I lose I my fake original $10K roll, I'll send you $100. Why not, it's a 50-50 game? I choose heads right now unless you want me to choose tails.

Speaking of which, why does not the Wiz post similar random results of, say, BJ, I know he has posted random results of, I think 10,000 roulette spins, maybe double-zero?, to force some of the bozos here to more precisely define a betting system and apply it to x trials for all to see. Why does not the Wiz point some of these roulette "systems" as a start to these 10,000 results as a start anyway?

It might be a start.

Yes, less than a billion but perhaps enough to show an average once-a-year gambler what might be expected by his "system".

Hey, apparently OG lasted Oscar a lifetime as a frequent weekend player at craps. A minus EV game. From what i understand, simulations have proven it was a long way from impossible that he did that.

Nobody on planet earth lives for 1 billion trials of anything.

Why can't I just ask myself how I will likely fare after 2 weeks in Vegas over 20 years using a "system"? Or 2 weeks in a lifetime?

So, consider yourself "served" - 8000 fair coin flips mano-a mano lol.
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 26th, 2011 at 6:34:46 PM permalink
I love the topic name >> "If a Casino game had 0 house edge"

What do you mean 'if'? I've read all kinds of stories here regarding guys playing with an ADVANTAGE/edge. Does that not mean 0% HA?

Yeah, yeah I know. 5.26% and 3%......Huge difference. (lol) Bad news fellas, losing IS losing regardless of how long it takes.

Ken
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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July 26th, 2011 at 8:20:25 PM permalink
I asked my math professor this question over twenty years ago. Given a house edge is there a betting system that can guarantee a win? The answer is yes but you need to meet two conditions.

1. Have infinite amount of money.
2. Casino to accept infinite bet.

With a cap on the betting and the fact that no one has infinite amount of money, one cannot overcome a HE with a betting system.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 26th, 2011 at 8:33:19 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

I asked my math professor this question over twenty years ago. Given a house edge is there a betting system that can guarantee a win? The answer is yes but you need to meet two conditions.

1. Have infinite amount of money.
2. Casino to accept infinite bet.

With a cap on the betting and the fact that no one has infinite amount of money, one cannot overcome a HE with a betting system.




In your opinion, does this mean for ANY game and even if the HE is very low?

Ken
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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July 26th, 2011 at 8:39:38 PM permalink
Quote: mrjjj

In your opinion, does this mean for ANY game and even if the HE is very low?

Ken



If there is any edge, one cannot overcome it with any betting system. Stop wasting your time thinking of one. It will be easier to discover perpetual motion machine than this.

And this is not an opinion, it is a mathematical fact.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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July 26th, 2011 at 8:42:01 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

I asked my math professor this question over twenty years ago. Given a house edge is there a betting system that can guarantee a win? The answer is yes but you need to meet two conditions.

1. Have infinite amount of money.
2. Casino to accept infinite bet.



You can't win anything if you already have an infinite amount of money...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 26th, 2011 at 8:43:29 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You can't win anything if you already have an infinite amount of money...




What is it with some of you? Its HYPOTHETICAL.

Ken
pacomartin
pacomartin
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July 26th, 2011 at 9:22:10 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

I asked my math professor this question over twenty years ago. Given a house edge is there a betting system that can guarantee a win? The answer is yes but you need to meet two conditions.

1. Have infinite amount of money.
2. Casino to accept infinite bet.

With a cap on the betting and the fact that no one has infinite amount of money, one cannot overcome a HE with a betting system.



Your math professor was wrong.
AceCrAAckers
AceCrAAckers
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July 26th, 2011 at 9:30:58 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Your math professor was wrong.



If ever I run into him again I'll be sure to tell him that. pacomartin saying that you are wrong is all the proof I need. Just because you teach math and have a PhD doesn't mean a damn thing when pacomartin says you are wrong.
Edward Snowden is not the criminal, the government is for violating the constitution!
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 26th, 2011 at 9:32:02 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

Your math professor was wrong.




Oh, oh......and they're off!

Ken
EvenBob
EvenBob
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July 26th, 2011 at 9:40:53 PM permalink
Quote: AceCrAAckers

I asked my math professor this question over twenty years ago. Given a house edge is there a betting system that can guarantee a win?



You're first mistake is asking a math person
about how to win in the casino. They're very
good, excellent in fact, at finding all the ways
to lose. But when it comes to winning, all
their knowledge holds them back from really
investigating it to its fullest because they have
already concluded they can't win.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 26th, 2011 at 9:48:23 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

You're first mistake is asking a math person
about how to win in the casino. They're very
good, excellent in fact, at finding all the ways
to lose. But when it comes to winning, all
their knowledge holds them back from really
investigating it to its fullest because they have
already concluded they can't win.



I'll tell you something. Years ago when I first got started with my interest in roulette, I thought that talking with the math guys (message boards) was my BEST way to learn about this game. Kind of like, teachers at a school. As time went by, I learned I was dead wrong. They are the LAST people you want to talk to. >>>> "2+2 does not equal 5 Ken. You see, you can not win at this game"!!! (ROFL)


Ken
Keyser
Keyser
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July 26th, 2011 at 10:16:24 PM permalink
What always cracks me up is when someone calls us "mathboyz". It immediately tells everyone that the person throwing the name around sucks at math and that they are basically not very bright.

Being blissfully ignorant about basic math, while blowing spit bubbles, will not help a person design a system to beat the random game of roulette, and it also doesn't look very good on a job resume.





So tell me Mr. Jjjj and Evenbob,

Are you one of the "literate bozy" or do you also suck at reading and writing?

Maybe it's fashionable to brag that you're ignorant on the John Patrick forum. However, on this forum most of us will just conclude that you're an imbecile.

-Keyser (One of the mathboyz)
EvenBob
EvenBob
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July 26th, 2011 at 10:34:48 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

What always cracks me up is when someone calls us "mathboyz".



But just think, you have the rest
of the math fraternity to comfort
you and assure you that all is well..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Keyser
Keyser
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July 26th, 2011 at 10:38:28 PM permalink
And just think, you can seek the comforts of a zoo.
mrjjj
mrjjj
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July 27th, 2011 at 9:16:11 AM permalink
Quote: Keyser

What always cracks me up is when someone calls us "mathboyz". It immediately tells everyone that the person throwing the name around sucks at math and that they are basically not very bright.

Being blissfully ignorant about basic math, while blowing spit bubbles, will not help a person design a system to beat the random game of roulette, and it also doesn't look very good on a job resume.







So tell me Mr. Jjjj and Evenbob,

Are you one of the "literate bozy" or do you also suck at reading and writing?

Maybe it's fashionable to brag that you're ignorant on the John Patrick forum. However, on this forum most of us will just conclude that you're an imbecile.

-Keyser (One of the mathboyz)







At least I dont drop 22K a year on travel expenses using gamblers fallacy techniques. (lol)


Ken
indignant99
indignant99
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February 23rd, 2015 at 10:18:53 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You can't win anything if you already have an infinite amount of money...


Nor can you lose anything. Infinite works both ways. So go ahead, gamble your damn brains out. Have loads of fun. Do what-the-hell ever!
Yeah, I made a mistake once. I thought I was wrong, when I actually wasn't. -Indignant
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 24th, 2015 at 6:50:16 AM permalink
I have been to at least one forum that warns you if you are replying to a post that is more than a certain amount of time old, if not reminding you that the most recent post to the thread was more than something like three months old. Why can't they all be like that?

(As for "resurrecting" threads, or responding to years-old posts because they happened to be on the "recent" list; been there, done that, ate the sandwich, got the collectable cup.)
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
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February 24th, 2015 at 6:55:30 AM permalink
In fairness though, many other forums will jump all over your case if you create a new thread to talk about a topic that has been previously posted. Instead they want you to find the previous topic, and if your question isn't answered, then post a new thread. Granted, those are a different type of forum, but if you're not widely experienced in forums, how would one know this?
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
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