AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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December 19th, 2021 at 3:11:29 PM permalink
I was approached by a craps bettor who claims to have a system that works about 95% of the time.

He does not bet pass or DP in most cases.

He waits for a point then bets all six place bets. He takes a payoff then takes all bets down.

If the shooter rolls point seven, then with the next shooter he'll bet all six numbers again but this time with a multiple of the previous bets. One winning bet gives him an overall profit.

He comes to the table with a $6000 bankroll.

In the short time we played together I lost $500 and he profited $300.

I think he just got lucky hitting a couple of big bets.

Your reaction?
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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December 19th, 2021 at 3:25:25 PM permalink
The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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December 19th, 2021 at 3:29:58 PM permalink
This guy reminds me of the Rob Singer video poker scheme in which he claims that quitting when ahead locks in his profit.
unJon
unJon 
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December 19th, 2021 at 5:06:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
link to original post



You’re assuming he’s actually placing the 4/10. I assume he’s actually buying it. And unclear if vig is upfront of on win only.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
Joined: Oct 5, 2011
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December 19th, 2021 at 6:21:04 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
link to original post



You’re assuming he’s actually placing the 4/10. I assume he’s actually buying it. And unclear if vig is upfront of on win only.
link to original post



I dont know of any casino that still charges a vig upfront on the 4 and 10 in Vegas.
unJon
unJon 
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December 19th, 2021 at 6:22:33 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
link to original post



You’re assuming he’s actually placing the 4/10. I assume he’s actually buying it. And unclear if vig is upfront of on win only.
link to original post



I dont know of any casino that still charges a vig upfront on the 4 and 10 in Vegas.
link to original post



Atlantic City it’s the norm.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
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December 19th, 2021 at 6:28:33 PM permalink
So 30 out of 36 times you won't have a point-7?
If you take your bets down you get your vig back. Is it easier to just turn the bets off, or will they be accidently swept away at the end of a hand?
I guess you have to figure there's 6 other numbers that won't payoff after the point is established (craps & yos), so you have to wait for one of your 24 numbers to hit once before you come down.
Don't try this on a table full of tourists who can't stop throwing point-7's.
You only need to win 5 times on the inside numbers to make your $64 across on a $10 table.
If somebody makes 4 points and comes out and you win, there's your 5 winners!
If I win 70 bets ahead, maybe I'll move up to a $15 table; or 24 wins ahead if I already had a $640 buy-in.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 19, 2021
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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December 19th, 2021 at 7:13:53 PM permalink
This ‘system’ is no better or worse or stupider than any other system.

It kinda reminds me of a system I came up with over 11 years ago:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/

It’s got the same problem where a two roll shooter kills you. But with my system, if you hit once, you’re already profitable for that shooter, and can then start pressing, etc.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
Ace2
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December 19th, 2021 at 7:27:10 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange


Don't try this on a table full of tourists who can't stop throwing point-7's.

You are joking, right? Or do you actually believe tourists are more likely to throw point-7s?
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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December 19th, 2021 at 8:03:01 PM permalink
Seems the Don't Pass shooters can't throw a point 7-out to save their lives.

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