AlanMendelson
AlanMendelson
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December 19th, 2021 at 3:11:29 PM permalink
I was approached by a craps bettor who claims to have a system that works about 95% of the time.

He does not bet pass or DP in most cases.

He waits for a point then bets all six place bets. He takes a payoff then takes all bets down.

If the shooter rolls point seven, then with the next shooter he'll bet all six numbers again but this time with a multiple of the previous bets. One winning bet gives him an overall profit.

He comes to the table with a $6000 bankroll.

In the short time we played together I lost $500 and he profited $300.

I think he just got lucky hitting a couple of big bets.

Your reaction?
Ace2
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December 19th, 2021 at 3:25:25 PM permalink
The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
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December 19th, 2021 at 3:29:58 PM permalink
This guy reminds me of the Rob Singer video poker scheme in which he claims that quitting when ahead locks in his profit.
unJon
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December 19th, 2021 at 5:06:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
link to original post



You’re assuming he’s actually placing the 4/10. I assume he’s actually buying it. And unclear if vig is upfront of on win only.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AlanMendelson
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December 19th, 2021 at 6:21:04 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
link to original post



You’re assuming he’s actually placing the 4/10. I assume he’s actually buying it. And unclear if vig is upfront of on win only.
link to original post



I dont know of any casino that still charges a vig upfront on the 4 and 10 in Vegas.
unJon
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December 19th, 2021 at 6:22:33 PM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

The house edge on his 4/10, 5/9 and 6/8 place bets is 6.67%, 4%, and 1.51% respectively. That’s how much his loss will be over the long term

My advice would be for him to make pass/DP/come/Dc bets with full odds. He”ll cut the average HE down by about 90% (relative)
link to original post



You’re assuming he’s actually placing the 4/10. I assume he’s actually buying it. And unclear if vig is upfront of on win only.
link to original post



I dont know of any casino that still charges a vig upfront on the 4 and 10 in Vegas.
link to original post



Atlantic City it’s the norm.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
ChumpChange
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December 19th, 2021 at 6:28:33 PM permalink
So 30 out of 36 times you won't have a point-7?
If you take your bets down you get your vig back. Is it easier to just turn the bets off, or will they be accidently swept away at the end of a hand?
I guess you have to figure there's 6 other numbers that won't payoff after the point is established (craps & yos), so you have to wait for one of your 24 numbers to hit once before you come down.
Don't try this on a table full of tourists who can't stop throwing point-7's.
You only need to win 5 times on the inside numbers to make your $64 across on a $10 table.
If somebody makes 4 points and comes out and you win, there's your 5 winners!
If I win 70 bets ahead, maybe I'll move up to a $15 table; or 24 wins ahead if I already had a $640 buy-in.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 19, 2021
DJTeddyBear
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December 19th, 2021 at 7:13:53 PM permalink
This ‘system’ is no better or worse or stupider than any other system.

It kinda reminds me of a system I came up with over 11 years ago:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/

It’s got the same problem where a two roll shooter kills you. But with my system, if you hit once, you’re already profitable for that shooter, and can then start pressing, etc.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
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December 19th, 2021 at 7:27:10 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange


Don't try this on a table full of tourists who can't stop throwing point-7's.

You are joking, right? Or do you actually believe tourists are more likely to throw point-7s?
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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December 19th, 2021 at 8:03:01 PM permalink
Seems the Don't Pass shooters can't throw a point 7-out to save their lives.
AlanMendelson
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December 19th, 2021 at 8:15:47 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

This ‘system’ is no better or worse or stupider than any other system.

It kinda reminds me of a system I came up with over 11 years ago:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/

It’s got the same problem where a two roll shooter kills you. But with my system, if you hit once, you’re already profitable for that shooter, and can then start pressing, etc.
link to original post



Holy cow! This sounds exactly like the system this dude was using.
Ace2
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December 19th, 2021 at 8:22:33 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

Seems the Don't Pass shooters can't throw a point 7-out to save their lives.
link to original post

The locals can but not the tourists
It’s all about making that GTA
ChumpChange
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December 19th, 2021 at 9:16:42 PM permalink
If people are likely to hit 1.6 inside numbers per shooter, I'd just put up the inside numbers for 1 hit per shooter point. It will cut down the HA on the 4 & 10 to 0%. If I hit 3 times, I'll be $2 short of buying another inside set of numbers on a $10 table. I'd move to a $15 table if I got to 50 wins ahead; or 18 wins ahead if I already had a $440 buy-in.

Well, I could plan on getting 10X my buy-in of $440 if I win 90 bets ahead.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Dec 20, 2021
pwcrabb
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December 19th, 2021 at 11:07:16 PM permalink
Alan describes a bettor who has a Place Bet version of a Martingale. Losses are followed by multiplying the Exposure. Minimal gains are acceptable. Multiple consecutive PSO would cause enormous losses. The probabilities of gain and loss are nowhere near (0.5) as they are in the familiar versions of Martingale. However, the business model is otherwise similar.
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
AlanMendelson
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December 20th, 2021 at 5:06:45 AM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Alan describes a bettor who has a Place Bet version of a Martingale. Losses are followed by multiplying the Exposure. Minimal gains are acceptable. Multiple consecutive PSO would cause enormous losses. The probabilities of gain and loss are nowhere near (0.5) as they are in the familiar versions of Martingale. However, the business model is otherwise similar.
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Good summary. Thanks.
DJTeddyBear
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December 20th, 2021 at 10:25:01 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: DJTeddyBear

This ‘system’ is no better or worse or stupider than any other system.

It kinda reminds me of a system I came up with over 11 years ago:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/1907-how-to-win-at-a-cold-craps-and-be-ready-when-it-turns-hot/

It’s got the same problem where a two roll shooter kills you. But with my system, if you hit once, you’re already profitable for that shooter, and can then start pressing, etc.
link to original post



Holy cow! This sounds exactly like the system this dude was using.
link to original post

Yeah, it does.

The difference is, it sounds like your guy was betting the minimum and taking it down to zero after a hit, then waiting.

I hate waiting.

My system was to bet X times the minimum, where X is the number of place bets made (I like 4), then take them down to the minimum after one hit. You make a smaller initial profit, but now have bets still in play to take or press as normal.

$10 table example:
Your guy bets $44 inside.
One hits, it pays $14 and all bets down.

My way, bet $196 inside.
One hits, it pays $56. Take them down to $44 inside.
You’re up $12 with bets still active.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
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December 20th, 2021 at 10:28:55 AM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If people are likely to hit 1.6 inside numbers per shooter,]

Where are you getting that number ?
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
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December 20th, 2021 at 6:04:40 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

My way, bet $196 inside.
One hits, it pays $56. Take them down to $44 inside.
You’re up $12 with bets still active.
link to original post



On a $15 table after one hit you'd have $66 working which would require a second hit to give you a profit. But you would have recovered most of the initial bet.

Still not bad as long as it's not a PSO.

What this other dude would do in case of a PSO is to make a much higher bet on the next shooter that would win back the previous loss. Hence the need for a $6000 bankroll.
AlanMendelson
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December 21st, 2021 at 5:39:20 PM permalink
Thank you for pointing out that this system has been tried before, and thank you for pointing out its shortcomings.

The guy who approached me said he wanted to do a TV Infomercial to sell a course, lessons and his betting strategy.

One of the largest TV station groups asked me to investigate his claims.

Your info helped me decide to pull the plug on the project.

He prowls Vegas casinos.
Taboomann
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January 22nd, 2022 at 9:30:48 PM permalink
Excellent
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