The Adventures of MDawg II

Luck doesn’t exist in the long run

A more appropriate clip would be Ace1 Rothstein saying:

“In the casino, the cardinal rule is to keep them playing and to keep them coming back. The longer they play, the more they lose, and in the end, we get it all.”

I bet your baccarat results resemble those of K.K. Ichikawa

Quote: DRich

Quote: unJon

Quote: MDawg

The house edge / vig isn't the be all and end all, otherwise every blackjack player who counts would win, and every baccarat player who plays with no advantage would lose.
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I would say it differently. It is the be all end all. But it doesn’t predict a point. It predicts a distribution. And card counters and baccarat players have different distributions, with particular players at sometimes vastly places on that distribution far from the average.
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In the old days after a jackpot and you cashed out, the slot tech would give you money to clear the jackpot off of the reels or screen. That was a true AP move.
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I did this at stations on the $25 machines, I didn't go ham because I wanted it to last. The Grand opening of Sunset Station was the nail in the coffin with their $100 machines. A few places even did it for fills, but they only had $5 9/6.

When I get pockets kings, I think of Ichikawa.

But otherwise, I don't think of Ichikawa when I play Baccarat because my results do not resemble his. In fact, no big Bacc player would have results that mirror that trip of his in the Casino movie.

Ichikawa was up a lot, and then left. Due to circumstances beyond his control, his trip was extended. As he continued to play, he dumped the two million he was ahead, and lost another million (his own money), and then stopped. Here is why that scenario is unrealistic.

The ONLY way Ichikawa would have stopped after going back to even and dumping another million, is if that were all he had available to him. Any high roller who is undisciplined enough to dump all of what he is ahead after getting ahead that far (and many are quite undisciplined), would play a lot deeper than a million in the red before giving up.

Here's a real world example. Someone I know plays with a $20,000,000. line. This player routinely wins hundreds of thousands or millions and leaves. Actually does quite well usually. But on a recent trip after getting up a staggering ten million in just one shoe (great shoe and was betting hard), on the very next shoe the player dumped not just the ten million ahead, but the entire line to the tune of now being behind -20,000,000.

So far, the story sounds somewhat like Ichikawa's but with this player after losing the entire line, the player ran to the host and got a T.T.O. (This Trip Only) extension of credit for another 50%, and then, as is almost always the case because at that point the player is incensed and too eager to get all of money back fast, dumped that extra ten million too for a total loss of -30,000,000. for that trip.

So, yes, the player went from +10,000,000 to -30,000,000 in just one session.

Ichikawa's story belies the notion of someone who loses control because if he had the presence of mind to quit after losing just a million of his own money, then he would have had the control to not give back all he was ahead or at least quit as soon as he got back to even, or close. It seems hard to believe that Ichikawa had only a million in credit or cash, because Ace mentions that Ichikawa had cleaned out a couple of casinos in the Caymans, and I doubt he could have done that with just a million with which to play.

Anyway, I decidedly do not play like Ichikawa. I maintain control and don't start dumping vast amounts just because I run into the red after being ahead. For me, each session is just another day. I don't play as perfectly as a robot might, as I do sometimes lose some control, but then neither do I routinely go from vastly ahead to behind.

A more realistic Ichikawa story would have been if he had lost the two million he was ahead, dumped another million, and then sought at least another half million with which to chase his losses. Just no way someone like that would have given up so easily after losing control in the first place.

And by the way, neither Ichikawa's results nor the long term results of my $20,000,000. line friend ended with mere "expected house advantage loss" results. Anyone who keeps crowing about how everyone will eventually lose the house advantage, or win exactly what he should based on his advantage, is probably also dreaming of a perfect world (or a defeatist who thinks the world is done for). The reality is rarely exactly as expected.


And uh, I make my own luck.

A couple of the casinos give me a few thousand in free play chips, plus half of that in automatic comps applied to the room. I don't even stay just get a standard room for a night, go in and pick up the chips, and the spend all the resort credits on items in the hotel gift shop and spa. When the comps are applied in that way, they are upfront and fixed and no casino play whatsoever is required.

It's hard to spend thousands without wanting or needing anything, so I generally just buy colognes and perfumes and we give them away or she sells them online.

Here are just some of the ones we stockpiled last trip after giving away a lot of them. She has a lot more stored someplace else.



It takes a little bit of effort to contact the host, make the reservation, just one night standard room only, then show up, check in, go to the cage, get the chips, then go shopping, but why not? "It's all free this week, I'll let you know when your time's up." Every few "stays" I use the free play chips and win some actual cash too, and every third or fourth trip put in enough actual play to keep the perpetual comp machine going.

The casino loves losing money to you and they want to continue losing more, so they entice you with comps. Makes total sense.

"The only way to win in a casino is to own one….No, I’ve never known anyone to have made money paying at a Casino over a period of time." ~Steve Wynn

Quote: Ace2

The casino loves losing money to you and they want to continue losing more, so they entice you with comps. Makes total sense.

"The only way to win in a casino is to own one….No, I’ve never known anyone to have made money paying at a Casino over a period of time." ~Steve Wynn
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His claim that he can just go and pick up offers without showing any play may be accurate.

I have been explaining to him that he is undercomped.

If you get undercomped this type of grab and go can fly.

His claim above, far from sounding fantastic actually backs up my claim that he doesn't fully understand comps and is being severely undercomped.

There are a lot of opinions, but for the most part opinions presented consist of "If I haven't done that no one else could have."


In this instance DarkOz apparently has done something like what is described so he seems to understand. Apparently Ace2 has done nothing other than lose the house edge at casinos, which is all he expects and all that has ever happened for him, so he doesn't seem to understand.

I play with an edge, and win a lot more than expected, so what's the difference between that and winning while playing without an edge?


Theo loss based comps are where it's at, for winners like MDawg. No I'm not getting undercomped, raking in fifty grand of comps per month is not being undercomped, and that's not even counting free play and cash rebates when I might lose on a given session.

About all more I could do, is - since I play multiple properties per trip - is set up friends and family in even more rooms and suites RFB spread out across Vegas, but I just couldn't be bothered to do all that, I'm too intent on winning at the tables, and we're not always necessarily even staying in house when in Vegas.

Quote: MDawg

Apparently Ace2 has done nothing other than lose the house edge at casinos, which is all he expects and all that has ever happened for him, so he doesn't seem to understand.

Obviously false and math-ignorant. No one would gamble if they just lost the house edge on every wager

I’ve had some huge wins and crushing losses at the casino. The difference between us is that I realize, over the years, those losses have exceeded the wins…though not by much since all of my wagers carry an edge under half a percent.

I’m not aware of any method to gain an advantage on baccarat. If there was a way, it would probably be something like a 1% edge, akin to an expert counter’s edge on blackjack. That’s a thin edge and takes months of daily, perfect play to have reasonable confidence of showing a profit…it’s a very long grind. You can confirm this with basic statistical calculations, which you probably don’t understand


“Over the long run the house advantage, no matter how small it may be, is a very predictive element of the final outcome. And that truth, is inexorable.” -Steve Wynn

I play Blackjack and Baccarat. You don't know what I do to win or have negotiated at either game, because I don't post specifics. What's astonishing though is that no matter what anyone posts here the ones who have done nothing but lose in casinos come back with, You must have lost too.

I wouldn't even go to Vegas if I didn't win consistently, I mean what's the point? I win and I still sometimes think it's not worth the effort or stress.

And, I don't play a game like craps where I never figured out how to gain an edge. I enjoyed craps, so you gotta figure, why doesn't he play that game? Because I haven't figured out how to win at it, that's why.

Quote: Ace2

Quote: MDawg

Apparently Ace2 has done nothing other than lose the house edge at casinos, which is all he expects and all that has ever happened for him, so he doesn't seem to understand.

Obviously false and math-ignorant. No one would gamble if they just lost the house edge on every wager

I’ve had some huge wins and crushing losses at the casino. The difference between us is that I realize, over the years, those losses have exceeded the wins…though not by much since all of my wagers carry an edge under half a percent.

I’m not aware of any method to gain an advantage on baccarat. If there was a way, it would probably be something like a 1% edge, akin to an expert counter’s edge on blackjack. That’s a thin edge and takes months of daily, perfect play to have reasonable confidence of showing a profit…it’s a very long grind. You can confirm this with basic statistical calculations, which you probably don’t understand


“Over the long run the house advantage, no matter how small it may be, is a very predictive element of the final outcome. And that truth, is inexorable.” -Steve Wynn
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Their are multiple ways to gain an advantage on Baccarat. However, if you were were doing such things you definitely wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops. It's highly unlikely you could remain a high profile player for months at a time while winning constant larg sums of money especially when you are playing private tables.

Just bet on “BIg Red” immediately before a 7. Pays 4:1, 9:2 in some foreign casinos

Quote: MDawg

]

Do you have a proven mathematical advantage, if so, what percentage?

Can you give us the gist of how that advantage is obtained?

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: MDawg

]

Do you have a proven mathematical advantage, if so, what percentage?

Can you give us the gist of how that advantage is obtained?
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Several of us have asked him that and crickets, crickets, crickets.

tuttigym

Quote: AxelWolf

Their are multiple ways to gain an advantage on Baccarat. However, if you were were doing such things you definitely wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops.
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Obviously, which is why I would never spell it out in public. I also am guarded about my identity. But the proof is in the pudding, that I continue to win, at both Blackjack and Baccarat.

Quote: AxelWolf

Quote: MDawg

]

Do you have a proven mathematical advantage, if so, what percentage?

Can you give us the gist of how that advantage is obtained?
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Let it be reminded of the forum that MDawg has claimed ending a session when up and starting the next day is advantageous and an advantage he personally uses.

(Using the same format as Wizard in mentioning 18 yos in a row of Alan)

Another way WOV works is when people shoehorn an action into their perception of what it MEANS. Doesn't make it so.

Quote: MDawg

A couple of the casinos give me a few thousand in free play chips, plus half of that in automatic comps applied to the room. I don't even stay just get a standard room for a night, go in and pick up the chips, and the spend all the resort credits on items in the hotel gift shop and spa. When the comps are applied in that way, they are upfront and fixed and no casino play whatsoever is required.

It's hard to spend thousands without wanting or needing anything, so I generally just buy colognes and perfumes and we give them away or she sells them online.

So, your wife sells stuff online? You need to raise her allowance so she can do a better job of making ends meet and managing her finances without any undo stress.

tuttigym

Quote: Ace2

I’ve had some huge wins and crushing losses at the casino. The difference between us is that I realize, over the years, those losses have exceeded the wins…though not by much since all of my wagers carry an edge under half a percent.

So, how does one have "crushing losses" when "all my wagers carry an edge under half a percent"? Were the computer simulations at fault, or did you just misread/misunderstand the projections? I guess you are now well into the "long term" of your gambling life, so therefore, abstinence might be the answer and pickle ball is the alternative.

tuttigym

Quote: tuttigym

So, how does one have "crushing losses" when "all my wagers carry an edge under half a percent"? Were the computer simulations at fault, or did you just misread/misunderstand the projections? I guess you are now well into the "long term" of your gambling life, so therefore, abstinence might be the answer and pickle ball is the alternative.

tuttigym
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An introductory probability & statistics class would benefit you immensely. Might even reduce your losses

It takes some time for actual results to resemble expectations. The variance in the interim is what makes gambling fun

Quote: MDawg

Quote: AxelWolf

Their are multiple ways to gain an advantage on Baccarat. However, if you were were doing such things you definitely wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops.
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Obviously, which is why I would never spell it out in public. I also am guarded about my identity. But the proof is in the pudding, that I continue to win, at both Blackjack and Baccarat.
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hold on now... i asked if you have a mathematical advantage or not. A yes or no answer wouldn't affect anything whatsoever.


Asking you what percentage you have wouldn't affect anything regarding your identity or have any negative affect on you. It’s a simple question. Most all advantage players know approximately what % they have when playing a particular situation. It’s not always a cut and dry, or 100% accurate, but it's usually close enough to know they are having a +EV situation . Most APs can estimate within a margin. IE. I might have a 3% - 7% advantage. " I don't care since since the lower end with mistakes is significant enough for me to be jamming money though.

I asked what the GIST of your advantage was. That shouldn't really affect anything. What I mean by the gist of it is simple. Where does your advantage come from? IE. Dark OZ would likely say from the slot club and makeketing department. A full pay VP player would say from the game itself and the promotionis/slot club. A card counter would explain its from the game via card counting.

Sorry for the many typos, I'm about to board a flight back home.

Quote: AxelWolf

] Their are multiple ways to gain an advantage on Baccarat. However, if you were were doing such things you definitely wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops. It's highly unlikely you could remain a high profile player for months at a time while winning constant larg sums of money especially when you are playing private tables.
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What are they, other than some countable side-bets ?

Quote: tuttigym

So, your wife sells stuff online? You need to raise her allowance so she can do a better job of making ends meet and managing her finances without any undo stress.
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It's one thing to insult a man, but quite another to bring his wife or mother into it. Three days for personal insult.

As to your point, it is quite normal for casinos to reward high-end players with shopping sprees on their properties. Players often resell such merchandise. I have been on the purchasing end of such deals many times.

I had several "shopping sprees" in the 5k to 10k range.

Sometime a particular store was used, and sometimes it applied to a shopping mall.

Years ago when waiting in line to pick up a shopping spree at a luxury handbag store the player behind me asked if I was going to use the certificate for my wife.

At the time I wasn't married and I told him that.

He offered 80% of the value in cash, which I accepted.

His wife wanted items that exceeded his offer.

As an aside: we completed the transaction in the mens room. He didnt want it seen on security cameras. He was afraid the transaction would affect future offers.

The mens room was crowded at the sinks so it was safe.

By the way... i saw Celine's show 13 times at Caesars. Never paid for a seat. One weekend I had two $250 tickets. When I stood at the steps of the Colosseum holding up 1 ticket security immediately approached me.

The security agent said "you cant resell tickets here."

I responded, "I'm not selling. I'm giving it away. It's a comped seat."

Security agent says "if you dont want the seat turn the ticket in to the box office."

I said "if I do that you'll sell it for $250."

Then it was time for the show. So I got in line behind a group of 3.

At the security check point one of the ladies said goodbye to the couple. I said to her "you're not going to see the show?"

She said she didnt have a ticket.

So I reached into my pocket and said now you do.

Ironically she was from Southern Cal. And after that we ran into each other several times at Rincon.

What if the tickets were comp'ed from a different casino, would it then be any of their business?

Quote: Ace2

Quote: AxelWolf

] Their are multiple ways to gain an advantage on Baccarat. However, if you were were doing such things you definitely wouldn't be shouting it from the rooftops. It's highly unlikely you could remain a high profile player for months at a time while winning constant larg sums of money especially when you are playing private tables.
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What are they, other than some countable side-bets ?
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You can do some research on the various ways Advantage Player's take advantage of Baccarat such as edge sorting. I'm not going to spell them out here, I sure theire are newer ways that I'm unaware of myself. It's really a moot point when it comes to MD and his claims.

Quote: MDawg

What if the tickets were comp'ed from a different casino, would it then be any of their business?
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I think you're referring to my post. Their rule was tickets could not be resold in the casino.

At MGM I've been comped fight tickets and they also have rules about on property sales.

Years ago ticket buyers stationed themselves on pedestrian bridges trying to buy tickets.

When we went the race track people were trying to sell tickets, quietly, anywhere near the entrance including in the Will Call line where we picked up the tickets the casino had left for us.

To get into the track clubhouse years ago they used to do it by putting the fluorescent stamp on the opposite wrist from where they normally placed it. Regular entry, stamp on one wrist, clubhouse entry stamp on the other, but for some time now they just issue tickets with barcodes that specify exactly where you should go, such as which private suite, similar to the way they do it in stadiums these days.

I have sold fight tickets before just because we arrived right when it was about to start or even late and decided to just cash out. There are always scalpers looking to buy and sell at all of these events, but they just have to do it quietly. I suppose the ones who do it less quietly are not professionals, just looking to get or sell tickets for themselves.

I've also had situations where comp'ed tickets are issued via say email to my ticketmaster or similar app, or texted via URL link and we just decide that we don't want to go. When I've contacted the host to suggest that the host use the tickets or give them to someone else, the host has just said to not worry about it, so in some situations the tickets just burn and are unused. When we've gone to special events inside the casino there are invariably empty seats right around us in the first few rows which I assume were for casino invited guests.

Paulie might have moved slow but it was only because Paulie didn't have to move for anybody.

I thought he died in 1988 in a Fort Worth, TX prison

Can't argue with that.

When Ray Liotta died, the internet was abuzz with recommendations that people watch Goodfellas again. Some people on social media demanded that anyone who did not re-watch it should unfollow them! I watch Goodfellas, among other movies, every now and then, and went ahead and watched it almost all the way through a couple months ago.

When Paul Sorvino died I declined to re-watch Goodfellas. Let's hope that Joe Pesci and Robert DeNiro don't expire anytime soon.

I have some offers for August, including one for $7000. in gift cards just for showing up (with some play, will double), and lots of other promo chip offers. Just not sure if want to go back to playing so soon, that last trip was a bit tiring at times.

Quote: MDawg

I have some offers for August, including one for $7000. in gift cards just for showing up (with some play, will double), and lots of other promo chip offers. Just not sure if want to go back to playing so soon, that last trip was a bit tiring at times.
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You don't have to say"just for showing up" like it's something special.

I know an old lady who gets $10 Freeplay 'just for showing up".

That's the whole concept of freeplay and complimentary offers.

Some offers require play, others, like this one increase the offer based on play after arrival.

Caesars, for example, makes the "free" offer for gift cards, free play or whatever usually contingent on checking into the comp'ed room and then afterwards earning at least 25 tier credits, which is ridiculously easy to achieve, but by imposing that small requirement they are no doubt hoping people will get caught up at the tables and play long enough to perhaps lose something? At least, I have heard lots of horror stories of people losing large sums while trying to achieve some sort of bonus incentive or reward.

And then of course, just like this gift card offer, the Caesars offer will be increased based on levels of play beyond the 25 tier credits.

All of these are of course based on comps earned, either via theo or actual loss.

At one of the majors, they give "dollars" for play which translate to all sorts of consumer goods, on this last trip I earned a ridiculous amount of these dollars in the range of $25K which I used to buy a stack of ______, which I then re-sold for about fifteen grand, even at a discount. These dollars are earned almost exclusively through theo loss - for some reason the system doesn't give much for actual loss, so if you sit down and lose your arse quickly, you barely get anything, but if you sit down and play for hours without winning or losing much (or winning or losing a lot) you will get a lot based off theo. In short, TIME is what makes theo happen - quick play doesn't earn much theo compared to extended.

When you've been around a little bit longer and experienced different types of offers for serious players you'll see all variations of requirements for promos, drawings, tournaments, and so on. For example for tournaments, depending on the level, a very high credit line might be needed. And, the credit line needs to be paid off in full before the tournament - I've had players I know (friends I know well who are good for it) ask me to pay off their lines for them the day before a tournament so that they will be allowed entry. I've been in tournaments where there is a 1 in 40 chance of winning a couple hundred thousand, and 1 in 5 of winning at least ten grand.

Okay that makes sense.

I understand the West coast is different for comps

On the East Coast I would say 90% of Freeplay offers do not hinge on extra play.

Gifts usually do require some ridiculous points earning requirement. Those are the sucker plays but you and I seem to agree on that aspect.

I understand Theo seems better to earn but I prefer losses. I know that seems backwards but there are advantages to a loss based system that I can't discuss here that makes it more profitable in the long run.

I don't know much about how it works for slots, because I don't play them, and I've never delved into exactly what my slots playing friends get, but I do know they're well taken care of, and they all seem to lose pretty consistently, but I suspect that most of their comps come from extended play (theo loss) versus actual loss. However, I can't know for sure.

I do know that for table games you really have to lose ridiculous sums to keep serious comps going for any length of time. At my level of comp'ing it just would not work out short of dumping millions of dollars a year into the casinos. On the other hand, massive comps via theo play are quite doable without losing much or by winning.

Just by way of example, say a guy has a 100K credit line and shows up planning to spend four nights in Vegas in a nice suite. He goes in and dumps the whole thing in twenty minutes at the tables. His theo comps would be minimal, but he lost 100K so he gets 10% of that for comps. But let's say he had a loss rebate in place, and they give him say 5% back, which is average not that great, but if he hasn't negotiated any better he should be able to get at least that on such a loss. Well, that 5000 loss rebate is generally considered as 2X its value in comps, so now he's burned all 10K of the comps he was entitled to, so, as Woody Allen might have put it, So where's gas? Where's tolls? as far as covering his suite and food, let alone spa. The guy is tapped out.

OR the guy will have to not get a full 5% loss rebate, and use at least some of his 10K for comps against his suite, food or spa.

In either case, the blowout quick loser of 100K isn't going to be welcome at the casino for too many days, his comps will run out pretty fast.

On the other hand, a player like me, might play for hours and hours over days on end at a good high average and say, end up winning $20K or whatever (or more, really the dollar amount of the win is irrelevant), or even just break even, and amass an incredible sum in theo loss, which could carry literally weeks of RFB in a suite plus spa.

So when we are talking about RFB / spa type comps, or even any comps, as far as sustainability on both your pocketbook and even in terms of getting enough comps to carry a long stay, consistent play that generates theo is the only feasible way to do it.


As far as free play and promo chips, I know exactly how they work for tables, not exactly how they work for slots. By work I mean, how they are achieved, and so on.

There are definitely some casinos in Vegas where the freeplay offer is fixed and you get it just for showing up, but even at those casinos you might have to at least check in to your comp'ed room first and then go to the cage to get the chips.


As far as GETTING the offers, casino marketing doesn't care if you arrived at them via actual or theo loss. As long as you are still a player in good standing who has put in the play you'll keep getting offers.

Quote: darkoz

Okay that makes sense.

I understand the West coast is different for comps

On the East Coast I would say 90% of Freeplay offers do not hinge on extra play.

Gifts usually do require some ridiculous points earning requirement. Those are the sucker plays but you and I seem to agree on that aspect.

I understand Theo seems better to earn but I prefer losses. I know that seems backwards but there are advantages to a loss based system that I can't discuss here that makes it more profitable in the long run.
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I dont know what a loss based system is.

The comp/gift promotions I've experienced have either been:

A. Show up and you get ABC.

Or

B. Play and earn X points to get ABC, and play more to get DEF.

OR, some combination of the two.

I'd hate to not get a promotion if I won.

Now, if I misunderstood your post I'm sorry.

MDawg,

I understand what you are saying about Theo being better to achieve than actual losses quickly.

But just how do you guarantee achieving a Theo?

At table games excepting a doey/don't which purpose is precisely to guarantee Theo loss (and even then usually approaches close to theoretical loss anyway but avoids catastrophic loss) how can you make such claims that you"avoid losses" and always achieve a theoretical without loss?

Are you claiming to have an advantage play that allows you to do that?

Such advantage would of course not include mumbo jumbo like "feeling the cards" or hunches or rubbing the plastic chips etc.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: darkoz

Okay that makes sense.

I understand the West coast is different for comps

On the East Coast I would say 90% of Freeplay offers do not hinge on extra play.

Gifts usually do require some ridiculous points earning requirement. Those are the sucker plays but you and I seem to agree on that aspect.

I understand Theo seems better to earn but I prefer losses. I know that seems backwards but there are advantages to a loss based system that I can't discuss here that makes it more profitable in the long run.
link to original post

I dont know what a loss based system is.

The comp/gift promotions I've experienced have either been:

A. Show up and you get ABC.

Or

B. Play and earn X points to get ABC, and play more to get DEF.

OR, some combination of the two.

I'd hate to not get a promotion if I won.

Now, if I misunderstood your post I'm sorry.
link to original post

Yes you misunderstood somewhat however you hit upon a fact that yes there are some casinos that will punish winners and reward losers.

I'm referring to marketing.

On top of that most casinos will refuse service to consistent winners at least as far as doling out comps. In complete contradiction to what MDawg adventures report.

Keep in mind MDawg claims to always maintain a theoretical loss only and never actual losses. He has failed to state what basis his edge is to achieve this in even the most rudimentary way.

Quote: MDawg

On the other hand, a player like me, might play for hours and hours over days on end at a good high average and say, end up winning $20K

Would you estimate that’s your average result for a session…up $20k ?

I try to win $15K - $30K in my sessions because inevitably a day comes along when I lose -$50 - $60K or so, but as long as I clear enough of the $20K average sessions then the losing day just becomes a blip on the radar.

Where it gets tough is that sometimes when I have lost say fifty sixty K at one casino I give up and go to another one. The giving up part is actually a good thing because once I get into that state of mind of having to win it all back, right then and there, which no matter how disciplined I am those sorts of quick recovery thoughts are going to hit me, I am doing myself a disservice by continuing play without taking a break.

So, giving up when things are not happening, is fine. Fine to give up and walk out of that casino.

But then once I get to that new casino, I'd say that close to 80% of the time within an hour I've won back anywhere from 10 - 30K of the loss. Now, where it gets tricky is that if I continue to press to try to win the entire 50 - 60K (or even more) back, about half the time it works out and half the time I end up losing more - say another thirty grand or so, which then brings the day's loss to around -80K, and now that really sucks. And after experiencing back to back losses in two casinos, I almost always give up.

So - the dilemma is whether to just give up and take the first big loss at the first casino and call it a day, or to go to another casino and try to win some or all of it back. Statistically, looking back at my sessions, I would have to say that most of the time I would have been better off either just giving up after the first big loss, or giving up after trying to win some of it back.

It all just has something to do with focus. After a big loss, I have lost some focus and I might tend to push things beyond where I should trying to recoup, which is the very definition of chasing. By the next day, I've already put aside the day's loss and am starting fresh, shooting for another $15 - $30K session.

I can't tell you how many times I've lost big in a day, and then within a day or two recouped all of it, without even that much effort. But, dig myself into a really bad hole one day, and it becomes a lot harder to maintain focus and keep playing the way I should day in day out.

The best is to just play the same always, and accept that there will be days when it isn't happening, and cut those days off before they take too much of a bite out of the wins.

But anyway - for me - averaging $20K in my wins keeps my win machine rolling. If I shoot too low, such as say just a few K per session, then when I dump (and my dumps tend to all be somewhere around fifty or sixty K) too much is eaten up and I have a hard time recovering. This is what I learned from personal experience over the years, to push my wins to a level where two or three of them will cover a single day's bad loss.

Quote: darkoz

Keep in mind MDawg claims to always maintain a theoretical loss only and never actual losses. He has failed to state what basis his edge is to achieve this in even the most rudimentary way.
link to original post

I try not to belabor the point, but this gets back to this post.

Theoretical loss is like a running inexorable tally. It is not affected by losing, nor is it affected by winning. Theo loss is a mere product of time X average bet as applied to the presumed house edge.

At the end of the trip, the host has two figures in front of him based on the records the pit bosses have recorded. One is the player's win/loss, the other is his theo loss. The host then gives the player by way of comps either 10% of loss if there was an actual loss, or 35-40% of theo loss, whichever is greater. That's it, there is no mystery to this process. The player doesn't have to dance a jig or play in any certain way to "maintain a theoretical loss" because theo loss is achieved no matter what the end result. The question as far as comps are concerned is just whether comps will end up being greater from theo or actual loss.

Did a lightbulb💡go off yet?

As far as what DarkOz is alluding to with reference to trying to show actual losses, this is because his players are all slots players. No one is supervising or watching the slots to see what the player is doing, the way a crew is always watching the table game player. At the end of a slots session, or trip, all the casino has in front of it are the theo loss the slots player generated through coin in X time played, and the actual results. So, I assume that if the casino keeps seeing some slots player always winning, it will simply assume this player is an advantage player, without bothering to look at anything else. So that is why DarkOz must want to keep his crew in the red, because they are already breaking casino rules by playing without their own cards in the machines, and he doesn't want more attention put on them.

But at table games, if the pit boss thinks there is an advantage play going on, and assuming he cares, he's not going to wait until the end of the guy's session or trip to figure out what to do, he's going to start recording the table game player's moves right then and there. Which is why trying to show a loss at table games, besides the fact that it's harder to do than people realize, is a relatively pointless exercise because casinos will boot people who are losing but, say, counting cards, all the time, along with other advantage plays.

At slots, maybe the only way they are tipped off to advantage play is via a consistent win. But at tables, if they notice a person rising and lowering his bet to the count at blackjack, they might take action even if the player is losing.

I never try to mask my winning, first of all because I can't. I play at private tables and they count the rack before and after my play, so they know exactly what I won or lost. And secondly, if they were going to boot me they would have done it years ago. For whatever reason, I've been able to win pretty consistently at Baccarat and Blackjack and for a few years now, no one has said a negative word about it.

I admit I've never heard of someone who wins too much from casinos that they are punished by marketing.

What I have heard is that marketing will send out offers to winners so that winners will return to casinos and lose back their previous winnings.

Is it possible there is a consistent winner who keeps getting lured back by marketing? Of course!!

This website is full of APs who say they are consistent winners.

The only difference between these APs who are not challenged and Mdawg is the size of their bets.

If the APs here can win, why can't Mdawg win?

Quote: AlanMendelson

I admit I've never heard of someone who wins too much from casinos that they are punished by marketing.

What I have heard is that marketing will send out offers to winners so that winners will return to casinos and lose back their previous winnings.

Is it possible there is a consistent winner who keeps getting lured back by marketing? Of course!!

This website is full of APs who say they are consistent winners.

The only difference between these APs who are not challenged and Mdawg is the size of their bets.

If the APs here can win, why can't Mdawg win?
link to original post

None of the AP's say MDawg can't be consistently winning. They argue he has to have an advantage and that advantage needs to be mathematically grounded.

Sometimes he claims no advantage, other times he does but his description of his play method isn't mathematical. Usually it's like "stop when ahead" or "come back tomorrow" (which if they worked would kill the casinos. How many players come back the next day?

Your question why can't he win is like the following conversation.

Alan: I am flying into Vegas. How about you?

Darkoz: me too.

Alan: Oh, I am Delta. How about you?

Darkoz:. No plane. I will be flying using my arms.

Alan: Ummm, you joking?

Darkoz:. No! If you can fly to Vegas, why can't I?

You see the difference between scientific and mathematical and somewhat more on the questionable side?

As for marketing refusing offers, check out stories like Don Johnson who won the $15 million. The casino execs state right in the YouTube video on him that he isn't welcome back for offers. (And no it doesn't have to be anywhere near that high. He just hit them fast and hard).

At any rate, every marketing department has the terms "All offers subject to cancelation at any time with no warning" or some such legal mumbo jumbo. Read the terms of service of your marketing literature.

You think they put that there for no reason?

Quote: MDawg

Quote: darkoz

Keep in mind MDawg claims to always maintain a theoretical loss only and never actual losses. He has failed to state what basis his edge is to achieve this in even the most rudimentary way.
link to original post

I try not to belabor the point, but this gets back to this post.

Theoretical loss is like a running inexorable tally. It is not affected by losing, nor is it affected by winning. Theo loss is a mere product of time X average bet as applied to the presumed house edge.

At the end of the trip, the host has two figures in front of him based on the records the pit bosses have recorded. One is the player's win/loss, the other is his theo loss. The host then gives the player by way of comps either 10% of loss if there was an actual loss, or 35-40% of theo loss, whichever is greater. That's it, there is no mystery to this process. The player doesn't have to dance a jig or play in any certain way to "maintain a theoretical loss" because theo loss is achieved no matter what the end result. The question as far as comps are concerned is just whether comps will end up being greater from theo or actual loss.

Did a lightbulb💡go off yet?

As far as what DarkOz is alluding to with reference to trying to show actual losses, this is because his players are all slots players. No one is supervising or watching the slots to see what the player is doing, the way a crew is always watching the table game player. At the end of a slots session, or trip, all the casino has in front of it are the theo loss the slots player generated through coin in X time played, and the actual results. So, I assume that if the casino keeps seeing some slots player always winning, it will simply assume this player is an advantage player, without bothering to look at anything else. So that is why DarkOz must want to keep his crew in the red, because they are already breaking casino rules by playing without their own cards in the machines, and he doesn't want more attention put on them.

But at table games, if the pit boss thinks there is an advantage play going on, and assuming he cares, he's not going to wait until the end of the guy's session or trip to figure out what to do, he's going to start recording the table game player's moves right then and there. Which is why trying to show a loss at table games, besides the fact that it's harder to do than people realize, is a relatively pointless exercise because casinos will boot people who are losing but, say, counting cards, all the time, along with other advantage plays.

At slots, maybe the only way they are tipped off to advantage play is via a consistent win. But at tables, if they notice a person rising and lowering his bet to the count at blackjack, they might take action even if the player is losing.

I never try to mask my winning, first of all because I can't. I play at private tables and they count the rack before and after my play, so they know exactly what I won or lost. And secondly, if they were going to boot me they would have done it years ago. For whatever reason, I've been able to win pretty consistently at Baccarat and Blackjack and for a few years now, no one has said a negative word about it.
link to original post

You aren't understanding what I am getting at.

Although, yes, you can hide your wins to fool casino marketing.

I'm saying Theo loss is difficult to "manufacture" although not impossible and that actual loss is better because it can be manipulated.

Actual winning can also be manipulated although it's more difficult (and sometimes costs more than it's worth).

When I say "actual loss or actual win" I am referring to what the casino sees. For example showing an "actual win" is what the casino marketing department sees and in Reality you may have actually lost significant cash to fool their system. The obvious purpose would be to obtain marketing that is better than straight Theo.

EVERY CASINO IS DIFFERENT IN THEIR MARKETING

This whole "casinos do 10% actual vs 35% Theo" is not true for EVERY casino. They all have their different calculation and just saying one blanket rule works is simply incorrect.

I'm curious. Is hole carding mathematically based? Is edge sorting mathematically based?

I understand that card counting is mathematically based.

I'm sure Mdawg has a sound method of winning. Other APs dont reveal their tricks of the trade so why must Mdawg?

If Mdawg were winning only a few hundred dollars per session would there even be any uproar over his wins?

Theres an uproar only because he has a bigger bankroll.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm curious. Is hole carding mathematically based? Is edge sorting mathematically based?


link to original post

Are you serious?

Phil Ivey edge was supposed to be about +31% or thereabouts.

It was substantial enough that a judge (although I personally disagree) believed his edge violated his unwritten contract with the casino. (The implications that the casino must maintain it's edge are mind boggling but that's for a different thread.)

Not only is hole carding and edge sorting mathematical, I am certain the math geniuses on here can give you exact numbers as to player edge.