The Adventures of MDawg II
And you're also right about that one of the primary exceptions is the state and federal dual prosecution. In a recent case Gamble v. United States - 139 S. Ct. 1960 (2019), a felon was conviction of felon in possession of firearm statutes both state and federal, and the Supreme Court affirmed that.
However some states, such as California, offer their own double jeopardy protections, such as California Penal Code 687 - “No person can be subjected to a second prosecution for a public offense for which he has once been prosecuted and convicted or acquitted.” Also Article I, section 15 of the California Constitution states that a person may not be placed in jeopardy twice for the same offense. In California as long as the defendant brings up the double jeopardy issue and doesn't just knowingly and willingly plead guilty to both federal and state identical or overlapping offenses, dual sovereignty doesn't fly.
Quote: MDawgThank you.
It really is the case that some players just get blown out trip after trip, and a very small minority walk away winners regularly. I have not observed anyone who "loses the exact house edge" over time. I almost never see, for example, someone who simply flat bets the Bank at Baccarat, which would be one way to mostly ensure losing just the house edge over time. If you jump your bet around at Bacc and vary it greatly you might win a ton or you might get blown out, you won't see as much "house edge" grind down.
I can see how the house edge might affect the upside - for example commission on Bank Baccarat bets, if a player is winning heavily on Bank bets the commission could add up to thousands, even ten thousand dollars after not so long, but those are bets the player is winning. And then by the end of the session, if that player has reached a certain goal yes maybe that goal could be achieved sooner or maybe even the drag of the commission might prevent him from ever reaching that goal before a blowout occurs and the players loses it all. But after the player has lost every chip in front of him what difference did it make that he had to pay commission on Bank bets? When that final case bet is lost it will simply be for less chips than if he had had the commission in front of him to toss onto that final case bet.
The way I look at it, unless the sums saved from house edge wear would contribute to a net win, versus a net blowout, they don't make much difference: the player either walks with his goal or he does not, and for blowout situations, which happen more often than you would think for some of these players, the house edge doesn't make any difference at all.
If a player is determined to either win big or lose all every session, which trust me there are a lot of players like that out there, the house edge doesn't make much difference. When it comes to trying to win proportionate to your bankroll / max bet an extremely large sum, the statistical improbability of achieving that goal before a blowout, comes into play much more so than a tiny house edge. The mentality that such players utilize is that even if they are ahead a good sum, as soon as some or all of those winnings are lost they start tossing down massive bets in a quick effort to get right back to where they were ahead, disregarding that the time might not be right for those huge bets. And then if they lose any of those bets and end up in the negative, these players go on tilt and start throwing down huge every hand trying to get back up, and this - chasing - usually results in the blowouts.
Early in a session, a player who was up a couple thousand and is now down a couple thousand might not care, and will continue to play steadily to try to get ahead again. But the same player - if undisciplined - who was ahead twenty thousand and is now suddenly flat even might lose it and start trowing down ten or twenty thousand or even higher hands to try to get back to where he was, immediately. Lose one of those bets, which might be at table max, and now the player must win two table max bets in order to get back ahead, and so on. The more table max units below the goal the less chance of achieving that goal.
For example Charles Barkley - he used to say that he'd play to either "win or lose a million" every session - and judging by his steady losses, he'd lose most every time.
“It got out of hand, but I quit for two years. I remember talking to my friends who said Gambling is not your problem, you’re just an idiot. We’ve sat on a table with you, and you were up 300, 400, 500, 600 thousand dollars, and they said let’s quit. I developed this thing where I have to win a million dollars.
Let’s not try to break the casino because you can’t break the casino. Since I developed that mentality, Gambling is a lot more fun to me, to be honest.” -Charles Barkley
Are you the guy who walks away when he's ahead or the one who always plays until every chip is gone? There are definitely both types of players out there (and some in between too).
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Elsewhere there has been discussion of flat betting at craps as a way to lose just a small percentage over time.
But what about the gambler's risk of ruin?
Stats I picked up online include:
You have a 1.5% advantage (50.75% win rate).
Your bankroll is 100 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 100 units.
Your risk of run is 4.72%.
or
You have a 1.5% advantage (50.75% win rate).
Your bankroll is 300 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 300 units.
Your risk of run is 0.012%.
but
You’re facing a 1.5% house edge (49.25% win rate).
Your bankroll is 300 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 300 units.
Your risk of run is 95.02%.
So, what's the risk of ruin playing craps flat betting? for the average player here?
So if a $15 PL bet can last 190 hours before losing 1 SD to the HA while playing 3X, 4X, 5X odds, a $100 PL bet with no odds may only last 1/6.667X that or 28.5 hours.
I've seen risk of ruin calculations even with a fair coin toss, and even there if undercapitalized and the win goal is substantial, the risk of ruin really comes into play.
Which was somewhat my point all along, that when some players are chasing losses trying to win a large and rising number of units with an ever decreasing bankroll and the same max bet ceiling, the chance of total loss is substantial. It is in those situations that the casino really cleans up, especially if the bankroll lost is that of a high roller. And then if the high rollers keeps chasing and dumps more and more large bankrolls, the casino wins even more. Looking back at such repeated blowouts, the player did not lose anything like the expected casino hold based on house edge, but rather, much more.
Quote: ChumpChangeCraps is a very slow game. If I have 25 PL with Odds bets lined up for a buy-in, and I'm trying to win +/-15 bets, it might take several 2 hour sessions to make a goal. So I'll just buy-in with what I left off at on the previous session.
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Is that how you play? How can one manage to stay awake or does the casino allow you to read at the table? One question for you: Do you enjoy the game and have fun? Sorry, that is two questions.
tuttigym
I'm trying to figure out how to deal with a large stack of TITOs from the Bubble Craps machine should I win all these bets over the $3,000 balance limit. Mind you, I'm still working with $100 buy-ins this month.
Let's assume you will play the passline plus 3-4-5 odds plus come bets + 3-4-5 odds until up to three total numbers are covered (aka Three Point Molly) for eight hours. Using round numbers, you should have about 240 PL resolutions and 576 total resolutions including the come bets. Your expectation is to lose 8 units +/- 146 units. Assuming flat bets of $100, that's an expectation of -$800 +/- $14,600. If your bankroll is 100 * $100 = $10,000, then your chance of finishing the session down more than $10,000 (0.63 deviations) is about 27%. However, since this is a very high variance play, your RoR (chance of being down more than $10,000 at any point during the session) will be much higher. I could work the RoR with more timeQuote: MDawg
Elsewhere there has been discussion of flat betting at craps as a way to lose just a small percentage over time.
But what about the gambler's risk of ruin?
Stats I picked up online include:
You have a 1.5% advantage (50.75% win rate).
Your bankroll is 100 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 100 units.
Your risk of run is 4.72%.
or
You have a 1.5% advantage (50.75% win rate).
Your bankroll is 300 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 300 units.
Your risk of run is 0.012%.
but
You’re facing a 1.5% house edge (49.25% win rate).
Your bankroll is 300 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 300 units.
Your risk of run is 95.02%.
So, what's the risk of ruin playing craps flat betting? for the average player here?
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Quote: Ace2/q]Let's assume you will play the passline plus 3-4-5 odds plus come bets + 3-4-5 odds until up to three total numbers are covered (aka Three Point Molly) for eight hours. Using round numbers, you should have about 240 PL resolutions and 576 total resolutions including the come bets. Your expectation is to lose 8 units +/- 146 units. Assuming flat bets of $100, that's an expectation of -$800 +/- $14,600. If your bankroll is 100 * $100 = $10,000, then your chance of finishing the session down more than $10,000 (0.63 deviations) is about 27%. However, since this is a very high variance play, your RoR (chance of being down more than $10,000 at any point during the session) will be much higher. I could work the RoR with more time
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Refiguring...
The average win on a point is $700 and the 1 SD limits are about 20X that, so I'd bring 25 x $700 = $17,500 to the session, or double that at $35K for 2 SD ( a second $17.5K buy-in). I could call it a win at +20 x $700 or +$14,000, or a 2 SD win at +40 x $700 = +$28K.
How many Hot Shooters do you need in 8 hours to win +60 x $700 for +$42K at +3 SD? I think converting my winning Come Bet into $250/$300 x 2 Place Bets will get me further despite the higher HA.
Quote: Ace2Let's assume you will play the passline plus 3-4-5 odds plus come bets + 3-4-5 odds until up to three total numbers are covered (aka Three Point Molly) for eight hours. Using round numbers, you should have about 240 PL resolutions and 576 total resolutions including the come bets. Your expectation is to lose 8 units +/- 146 units. Assuming flat bets of $100, that's an expectation of -$800 +/- $14,600. If your bankroll is 100 * $100 = $10,000, then your chance of finishing the session down more than $10,000 (0.63 deviations) is about 27%. However, since this is a very high variance play, your RoR (chance of being down more than $10,000 at any point during the session) will be much higher. I could work the RoR with more timeQuote: MDawg
Elsewhere there has been discussion of flat betting at craps as a way to lose just a small percentage over time.
But what about the gambler's risk of ruin?
Stats I picked up online include:
You have a 1.5% advantage (50.75% win rate).
Your bankroll is 100 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 100 units.
Your risk of run is 4.72%.
or
You have a 1.5% advantage (50.75% win rate).
Your bankroll is 300 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 300 units.
Your risk of run is 0.012%.
but
You’re facing a 1.5% house edge (49.25% win rate).
Your bankroll is 300 units.
You hope to win 100 units before losing 300 units.
Your risk of run is 95.02%.
So, what's the risk of ruin playing craps flat betting? for the average player here?
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I’ll set the over/under risk of ruin at 27% * 2 = 54%.
PL+Come+Odds is very low edge but it's high variance. RoR should be much higher than 54%
Quote: Ace2The RoR would be 27% * 2 for a 50/50 game with zero edge and variance of 1...like a coin flip paying even money.
PL+Come+Odds is very low edge but it's high variance. RoR should be much higher than 54%
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Maybe that’s right but it’s not intuitively obvious to me. The fact that it’s much higher variance than 1 should also be embedded in the 27% chance or ending below $10k. Will be interested in the answer if you end up cranking out the solution.
But I can say that the RoR would be at least a little higher than 2 * 27% due to the house edge, even though it’s a low edge. I believe that’s intuitive because you’re always trending toward ruin with any edge%
Quote: Ace2You might be right. I haven’t worked with RoR calculations in a while.
But I can say that the RoR would be at least a little higher than 2 * 27% due to the house edge, even though it’s a low edge. I believe that’s intuitive because you’re always trending toward ruin with any edge%
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Yea totally agree that last bit is intuitive.
And if you're trying to win a reasonable proportion amount relative to your bankroll / max bet, at least the risk of ruin should not become an issue.
Can you specifically tell us:
1. What methodology do you use to be an "Advantage Player"?
2. What do you consider to be "Advantage Plays"?
The two terms are not interchangeable as one should deal with the actual strategies of the game play itself while the other would involve what the player does to give him the "advantage" prior to game play.
Example: In slots, the "advantage player" invests in multiple player's cards and produces extensive "free play" dollars which are then converted through the casino issuing the "free play" into real dollars using multiple cards and other players. The "advantage play" is the actual product (slot winnings) of the "free play" from the casino issuing the "free play" vouchers.
tuttigym
Typically on the heaviest or hardest lifts, such as incline bench, I'll lose about 5% when I haven't been to the gym in a couple of weeks or so. It doesn't sound like much but for anyone used to lifting heavy, that 5% is enough to make one eager to recoup all capabilities.
Cardio throughput doesn't seem to decline nearly as quickly.
When you're exercising regularly you can't imagine stopping, but take a long enough break, and - unfortunately - it starts to become customary to not exercise.
VEGAS WISE the dilemma I always have is - should I hit the tables before or after going to the gym? I used to make certain that I went to the gym before, but then I got into the habit of going after. The problem with the latter approach is that not all of the hotels have a 24 hour gym (and who wants to work out late at night? not I anyway) and sometimes the hotel gyms are closed by the time the gaming session is over. Miss a couple of workouts because your sessions went too late in the day, and next thing you know you've fallen out of the habit, completely.
Quote: Ace2You might be right. I haven’t worked with RoR calculations in a while.
But I can say that the RoR would be at least a little higher than 2 * 27% due to the house edge, even though it’s a low edge. I believe that’s intuitive because you’re always trending toward ruin with any edge%
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Based on this post, you personally have experienced RoR many times, if that is true, ("But I CAN SAY") some of your gambling experiences must have been dreadful.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgNormally, traveling or not, I hit the gym every other day. This last excursion in Vegas I slacked off on that, lost my edge. At the main residence now, I'm back to the gym regularly.
Typically on the heaviest or hardest lifts, such as incline bench, I'll lose about 5% when I haven't been to the gym in a couple of weeks or so. It doesn't sound like much but for anyone used to lifting heavy, that 5% is enough to make one eager to recoup all capabilities.
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The post questioning your AP status has not been answered. It could be a result of me not putting your name in the post. So for clarification, those AP questions are directed to MDawg.
In the post above, with respect to your "heaviest lifts," could you define what, in your case, is heavy (flat bench press)? I did some lifting when I was younger, and I want to see if I measure up.
tuttigym
You don't have to be a math guy to realize DI doesn't work. Just use some simple logic, do some research, and watch some slow-mo videos. Even when dice are thrown at a much shorter distance when using a mechanical contraption, you can't gain an advantage.... now enter real-world conditions.Quote: AlanMendelsonIf the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
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It's been over 20 years and we haven't seen any legit evidence DI can gain an advantage in a real-world setting.
Let's just say for a second that it's technically possible. It's also possible for some humans to run over 26 mph but most of the population will never be able to achieve that feat no matter how hard they try.
Quote: AxelWolfYou don't have to be a math guy to realize DI doesn't work. Just use some simple logic, do some research, and watch some slow-mo videos. Even when dice are thrown at a much shorter distance when using a mechanical contraption, you can't gain an advantage.... now enter real-world conditions.Quote: AlanMendelsonIf the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
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It's been over 20 years and we haven't seen any legit evidence DI can gain an advantage in a real-world setting.
Let's just say for a second that it's technically possible. It's also possible for some humans to run over 26 mph but most of the population will never be able to achieve that feat no matter how hard they try.
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I agree although that brings up a can of worms.
There are videos of the fastest gun draw. You can't even see the draw. The gun comes out the holster, shoots, hits the target and replaced back in the holster so fast you see nothing except the target (usually a can or a balloon) is no more.
Now most of the population of the earth wouldn't be able to ever achieve this feat.
However can one say such a move is impossible? It's absolutely possible.
Which brings us back to DI. Is it impossible or simply so difficult only a tiny sliver of the population could ever achieve it?
Quote: tuttigymQuote: MDawgNormally, traveling or not, I hit the gym every other day. This last excursion in Vegas I slacked off on that, lost my edge. At the main residence now, I'm back to the gym regularly.
Typically on the heaviest or hardest lifts, such as incline bench, I'll lose about 5% when I haven't been to the gym in a couple of weeks or so. It doesn't sound like much but for anyone used to lifting heavy, that 5% is enough to make one eager to recoup all capabilities.
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The post questioning your AP status has not been answered. It could be a result of me not putting your name in the post. So for clarification, those AP questions are directed to MDawg.
In the post above, with respect to your "heaviest lifts," could you define what, in your case, is heavy (flat bench press)? I did some lifting when I was younger, and I want to see if I measure up.
tuttigym
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He will simply ignore questions regarding his AP ability. Or if he does answer it will be something to the effect that he doesn't have time to answer questions he deems not worth his time. He may suggest you pay tens of thousands of dollars to obtain such information in a challenge.
That's the basics pretty much.
Quote: darkoz
There are videos of the fastest gun draw. You can't even see the draw. The gun comes out the holster, shoots, hits the target and replaced back in the holster so fast you see nothing except the target (usually a can or a balloon) is no more.
My daughter was the Junior World Quick Draw champion years ago. They did not have to re-holster the pistol after the shot.
Quote: DRichQuote: darkoz
There are videos of the fastest gun draw. You can't even see the draw. The gun comes out the holster, shoots, hits the target and replaced back in the holster so fast you see nothing except the target (usually a can or a balloon) is no more.
My daughter was the Junior World Quick Draw champion years ago. They did not have to re-holster the pistol after the shot.
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Oh I am certain they don't.
The videos I refer to aren't competitive. It's about a guy who travels doing the shows, rodeos etc so he makes it an entertainment.
Nothing more entertaining than realizing the guy drew, shot and reholstered before it even registered on the brain.
Basically, one workout is push, the other pull, and I add legs to the pull workout as well.
I don't know if a tiny sliver of the population can achieve an ever so slight advantage VIA DI or not. If they could, it's not worth the time and effort. The variance would be too high and the earn would be too small.Quote: darkozQuote: AxelWolfYou don't have to be a math guy to realize DI doesn't work. Just use some simple logic, do some research, and watch some slow-mo videos. Even when dice are thrown at a much shorter distance when using a mechanical contraption, you can't gain an advantage.... now enter real-world conditions.Quote: AlanMendelsonIf the math guys put as much time and effort into dice influencing they might win at the negative expectation game of craps.
link to original post
It's been over 20 years and we haven't seen any legit evidence DI can gain an advantage in a real-world setting.
Let's just say for a second that it's technically possible. It's also possible for some humans to run over 26 mph but most of the population will never be able to achieve that feat no matter how hard they try.
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I agree although that brings up a can of worms.
There are videos of the fastest gun draw. You can't even see the draw. The gun comes out the holster, shoots, hits the target and replaced back in the holster so fast you see nothing except the target (usually a can or a balloon) is no more.
Now most of the population of the earth wouldn't be able to ever achieve this feat.
However can one say such a move is impossible? It's absolutely possible.
Which brings us back to DI. Is it impossible or simply so difficult only a tiny sliver of the population could ever achieve it?
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I know much more about DI than I would like to admit. In the infancy of DI (then known as Dice control) even before most anyone had ever heard of the Dominator, I gave it a whirl. I was very skeptical, but since someome who I respected said it was possible(they have since backtracked), I experimented.
I didn't just experiment with some half-assed small-time crackerjack tossing box rig... No, No, I helped invest in an exact replica of a craps table from a major stip casino, it was an extra table originally made for that casino.
We practiced and used tracking software. All but one person eventually gave up on the DI aspect.
During this time All kinds o fcrazy theories popped up when looking at the stats, including the fact that each person had their own special toss numbers they were hitting. I was soon convinced it didn't work.
Even if it was remotely possible, it wasn't worth the time and effort since the edge would be way too thin and the conditions were always changing.
Heck, even If you were able to actually influence the dice, you would soon get 86ed. Heck, back in the day people who just set the dice and looked like they had a "good shot" got tossed out and harassed by some casinos, especially once you started to win due to variance. The casinos had a better safe than sorry attitude. When it comes to casino personnel we are dealing with human beings who are susceptible to all the same superstition,, confirmation biases, and voodoo that many others are vulnerable to. I actually think people working in the casinos are more vulnerable to this type of stuff, especially dealers.
Playing craps while trying to DI wasn't a fruitless venture, it yielded a +Ev opportunity via good mail/comps back in the day, but the edge people were getting had nothing to do with DI.
What are your bench, squat, deadlift numbers?Quote: MDawgNormally I work out every other day. The workout is pretty hard, and takes anywhere from 1.5 - 2 hours, including weights and cardio. But if I'm trying to catch up from a period when I didn't work out and lost strength, I will work out two days in a row (different muscle groups), then take one day off, then back again for two days in a row, then one day off, and so on, until I am back up to speed in all respects.
Basically, one workout is push, the other pull, and I add legs to the pull workout as well.
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Actually I don't free weight squat any longer, I do different exercises for legs. But I do use free weights for about every other body part. And there are some legs related exercises where I use free weights, and of course I do leg press with plates.
This last trip after I was done playing I found $500. in one time free bet play that I had forgotten about. Five $100. chips. I was going to just leae , but instead I went to a random double deck table and put one chip each on two hands, won both of those hands, then put two chips on one hand, one on the other, lost both of those and left. So, five $100. one time play chips turned into $200. real cash.
How many wide grip pull-ups per set ?
At some point if the workout gets too long a person might just not do it at all. For example, with physical therapy. On the occasions when I've had some kind of muscle or tendon issue, the physical therapists tend to want to load more and more exercises to the point where it becomes too time consuming and I end up not wanting to do any of it. Some exercises, okay! Loads of exercises, end up not wanting to even bother.
Actually, the best results I have had as far as preventing sports injuries are to do warm up and strengthening exercises to get rotator cuffs, elbow tendons, etc. ready for lifting. I've had friends who have done it wrong for enough years that they ended up needing surgery, and the surgical results have not always been good. Preventive medicine is the way to go.
Quote: MDawgThe point being that if you're trying to win a disproportionate to your bankroll / max bet amount, whether playing with or without an advantage, you might have a more likely chance of blowout than ever even achieving a mere advantage/disadvantage % win/loss.
And if you're trying to win a reasonable proportion amount relative to your bankroll / max bet, at least the risk of ruin should not become an issue.
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Getting back to this, I do believe that this is what leads to repeated blow outs with a lot of these high rollers. They keep chasing mounting losses with the same or smaller bankroll, and the same max bet. Ruin happens before there is a chance for the house edge to erode winnings down over time.
Keep in mind, of course, that none of these players is flat betting, which may also lead to quick ruin, when the larger wagers are chasing catch up bets.
Quote: MDawgWell the problem with revealing those exact numbers is they lead to more data for the jerk offs who are trying to track me down for nefarious purposes.
Actually I don't free weight squat any longer, I do different exercises for legs. But I do use free weights for about every other body part. And there are some legs related exercises where I use free weights, and of course I do leg press with plates.
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You have got to be kidding, right? You are saying that if you stated that your bench press is 315 lbs., there are people who could "track you down for nefarious purposes"? Yet you brag and boast for days and weeks of your bodacious play and your comps and your food and your other extremes, and no one can "track you down for nefarious purposes"? Let me put it this way: if one were to comment further about this ridiculous post, a suspension would be in the offing by some mod. I personally have been suspended for a perceived insult.
This post is an insult to the intelligence all forum members who have engaged and indulged in your "adventures."
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2Leg press using plates isn’t free weights
How many wide grip pull-ups per set ?
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Whatever his answer might be, would lead to "some jerk off who would track him down for nefarious purposes," and he forgot to mention that he can have 28 dice tosses w/o a 7 out simultaneously.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2You’re the J.O. on this thread and others, tuttigym. I expect you’ll be suspended soon
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You are my hero Ace, and by your example, the leader.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: MDawgIn any case, life goes on. 🙂
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And more crickets.
tuttigym
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In case you missed my reply earlier, Tuttigym.
Quote: darkozQuote: tuttigymQuote: MDawgNormally, traveling or not, I hit the gym every other day. This last excursion in Vegas I slacked off on that, lost my edge. At the main residence now, I'm back to the gym regularly.
Typically on the heaviest or hardest lifts, such as incline bench, I'll lose about 5% when I haven't been to the gym in a couple of weeks or so. It doesn't sound like much but for anyone used to lifting heavy, that 5% is enough to make one eager to recoup all capabilities.
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The post questioning your AP status has not been answered. It could be a result of me not putting your name in the post. So for clarification, those AP questions are directed to MDawg.
In the post above, with respect to your "heaviest lifts," could you define what, in your case, is heavy (flat bench press)? I did some lifting when I was younger, and I want to see if I measure up.
tuttigym
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He will simply ignore questions regarding his AP ability. Or if he does answer it will be something to the effect that he doesn't have time to answer questions he deems not worth his time. He may suggest you pay tens of thousands of dollars to obtain such information in a challenge.
That's the basics pretty much.
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If he issued challenge in bench press, I would accept, and he would be toast.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgQuote: MDawgThe point being that if you're trying to win a disproportionate to your bankroll / max bet amount, whether playing with or without an advantage, you might have a more likely chance of blowout than ever even achieving a mere advantage/disadvantage % win/loss.
And if you're trying to win a reasonable proportion amount relative to your bankroll / max bet, at least the risk of ruin should not become an issue.
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Getting back to this, I do believe that this is what leads to repeated blow outs with a lot of these high rollers. They keep chasing mounting losses with the same or smaller bankroll, and the same max bet. Ruin happens before there is a chance for the house edge to erode winnings down over time.
Keep in mind, of course, that none of these players is flat betting, which may also lead to quick ruin, when the larger wagers are chasing catch up bets.
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Discussing "quitting while ahead" in the context of risk of ruin, if the risk of ruin is increased by trying to win too many units, then ending the session while up an amount that would be realistically proportionate to the bankroll/max bet, would be a strategy that would reduce the risk of loss mathematically. (Versus trying to keep playing until you achieve some higher goal, that results in a higher risk of ruin.)
Even on a fair coin toss, make your goal too high and be unwilling to walk away until after you've either achieved that unrealistic goal or lost it all, and you'll lose it all more often than not.
Yes, when you come back and resume it could be viewed as a continuation of the prior session, however if the next session has its own realistic win unit goal, again the risk of ruin could be kept in check.
In sum, if you believe that the risk of ruin correlates to the number of units desired to be won as related to the bankroll / max bet, then walking away with a realistic goal each time will at least minimize blowouts, which of itself betters your chances of winning over time.
Quote: MDawg
Discussing "quitting while ahead" in the context of risk of ruin, if the risk of ruin is increased by trying to win too many units, then ending the session while up an amount that would be realistically proportionate to the bankroll/max bet, would be a strategy that would reduce the risk of loss mathematically. (Versus trying to keep playing until you achieve some higher goal, that results in a higher risk of ruin.)
Even on a fair coin toss, make your goal too high and be unwilling to walk away until after you've either achieved that unrealistic goal or lost it all, and you'll lose it all more often than not.
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I guess trying to win all the chips in the dealer's tray would not be a wise endeavor.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgQuote: MDawgQuote: MDawgThe point being that if you're trying to win a disproportionate to your bankroll / max bet amount, whether playing with or without an advantage, you might have a more likely chance of blowout than ever even achieving a mere advantage/disadvantage % win/loss.
And if you're trying to win a reasonable proportion amount relative to your bankroll / max bet, at least the risk of ruin should not become an issue.
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Getting back to this, I do believe that this is what leads to repeated blow outs with a lot of these high rollers. They keep chasing mounting losses with the same or smaller bankroll, and the same max bet. Ruin happens before there is a chance for the house edge to erode winnings down over time.
Keep in mind, of course, that none of these players is flat betting, which may also lead to quick ruin, when the larger wagers are chasing catch up bets.
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Discussing "quitting while ahead" in the context of risk of ruin, if the risk of ruin is increased by trying to win too many units, then ending the session while up an amount that would be realistically proportionate to the bankroll/max bet, would be a strategy that would reduce the risk of loss mathematically. (Versus trying to keep playing until you achieve some higher goal, that results in a higher risk of ruin.)
Even on a fair coin toss, make your goal too high and be unwilling to walk away until after you've either achieved that unrealistic goal or lost it all, and you'll lose it all more often than not.
Yes, when you come back and resume it could be viewed as a continuation of the prior session, however if the next session has its own realistic win unit goal, again the risk of ruin could be kept in check.
In sum, if you believe that the risk of ruin correlates to the number of units desired to be won as related to the bankroll / max bet, then walking away with a realistic goal each time will at least minimize blowouts, which of itself betters your chances of winning over time.
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Are there any mathematicians that agree with this?
Could you not make more using this theory by quitting while ahead on one session and then letting your friend begin his session?
In theory you could win 24/7 by simply ending your session and letting the next person begin theirs.
Kind of like how marathon runners pass the flag.
As long as each person makes certain they are beginning a new session!
