jmp116
jmp116
Joined: May 6, 2021
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May 6th, 2021 at 8:59:36 PM permalink
In the sense that changing bet sizes can't turn an unfavorable game into a favorable one, and that the ratio of net winnings (or losses) to total amount bet converges to the expectation of a single unit bet. Can be found here:

Failure of Gambling Systems under Unfavorable Odds

http://www.naturalspublishing.com/files/published/93j7s7uo121d1g.pdf

Do you guys know of other papers or books where this is actually proved?

EDIT: Not sure why the link doesn't seem to work. It worked in the preview version just fine.

EDIT 2: I am first author.
Last edited by: jmp116 on May 6, 2021
BleedingChipsSlowly
BleedingChipsSlowly
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jmp116
May 6th, 2021 at 9:34:09 PM permalink
New accounts have limitations that lessen the potential impact of bad actors. Posting links is among those limitations. Look in the Forum Info topic if you want details.
Last edited by: BleedingChipsSlowly on May 6, 2021
“You don’t bring a bone saw to a negotiation.” - Robert Jordan, former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia
Wizard
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Wizard
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Thanks for this post from:
onenickelmiraclepwcrabbjmp116
May 6th, 2021 at 9:47:35 PM permalink
I've learned a long time ago that betting system believers have very poor logic and math skills. The only way they will see the light is through their wallet, which will eventually empty, as long as they keep playing.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
jmp116
jmp116
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May 6th, 2021 at 10:01:09 PM permalink
Right, I'm not expecting it to convince a devotee of systems. I just think it is mathematically interesting. While the result seems pretty obvious to me, it's harder to prove than I expected.
Zcore13
Zcore13
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May 6th, 2021 at 10:36:47 PM permalink
Quote: jmp116

Right, I'm not expecting it to convince a devotee of systems. I just think it is mathematically interesting. While the result seems pretty obvious to me, it's harder to prove than I expected.




I think its interesting that in your first post ever here you tried to post a link here to something written by someone with your exact initials, but posted as it was just a random article you found.

Any chance you could figure out the mathematical odds on that? Gotta be a longshot...


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
jmp116
jmp116
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May 6th, 2021 at 10:39:47 PM permalink
Yes, I'm the author. I wasn't trying to hide or draw attention to it either. I edited my first post so it is no longer unintentionally sneaky.
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
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jmp116
May 7th, 2021 at 12:34:00 AM permalink
Quote: jmp116

Yes, I'm the author. I wasn't trying to hide or draw attention to it either. I edited my first post so it is no longer unintentionally sneaky.

Hi, and welcome.
Normally, promoting your own site in a first post is often perceived here as spam. But I've read your paper and since you don't seem to be monetizing it, and it is on topic, I'll link to it for you.
Mathematical Analysis of The Failure of Gambling Systems
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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May 7th, 2021 at 1:44:13 AM permalink
.......................


we should take bets on when the next brand new martingaler - or some variation thereof - with a winning system - shows up here


here's how the bets should be priced:





within one day...................................4/1


within 4 days..................................................................5/2


within one week............................................................................................................even money





within one month.................1/20





*
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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May 7th, 2021 at 3:03:02 AM permalink
Someone just telling me about a betting system for horse racing trifectas yesterday, it was hard not to laugh and I sure did. Laughed even more when I was told it looks better on paper. :) Seems you have to win a 20 to 1 shot first, then bet a hot jockey and a hot horse and hot trainer and you cannot lose because you're starting out winning $40 on the first horse. Me talking about asking how to overcome a 25% edge didn't matter to them, they just went back to the spiel. Maybe I'll ask them to come on to explain it.
I am a robot.
jmp116
jmp116
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May 7th, 2021 at 5:54:14 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Hi, and welcome.
Normally, promoting your own site in a first post is often perceived here as spam. But I've read your paper and since you don't seem to be monetizing it, and it is on topic, I'll link to it for you.
Mathematical Analysis of The Failure of Gambling Systems



Thanks, bud! Right, it isn't my site and I get no money from it. I just thought it was of interest to people who like debunking systems. But I do understand the reason for policy for new posters like me.

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