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jc333
jc333
Joined: Mar 30, 2021
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March 30th, 2021 at 5:20:37 AM permalink
With my previous play, I didnt have a definite plan. I just wanted to make 333 per day. I shouldve created a stop loss maybe, but I didnt have one. I was playing willing to lose the 10k. if I hit the 333, went on a losing streak, and struggled to hit it again, I would walk with the 333. if I was doing well, I just played until I hit 1k more or less, like I mentioned no solid plan which was dumb. I probably just got lucky.

in terms of walking in and out with cash, i usually take home higher denominated chips like 5k or 1k chips. this is a local card room so I'm technically playing against a gaming corporation rather than against a casino. I do pay $1 juice per each $100 bet. No comps, no host, but everyone pretty much knows me there and treats me well. no commission baccarat.

however I do have hosts and get nice comps when I visit nevada
sabre
sabre
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March 30th, 2021 at 6:31:22 AM permalink
Just remember, losers leave when they're up. Winners just "pretend" to leave when they're up, the keep playing and win more. That resets everything and keeps the winning going. If you're just going to leave all the time you're going to spend all your time not gambling and not winning.

Do your research.
oboylere
oboylere
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March 30th, 2021 at 7:06:59 AM permalink
If you are playing a game with the best possible strategy and the house still has the edge, then you should only wager money on that game as a form of entertainment. Unless you are counting cards, edge sorting, etc, you will lose your $50,000 if you play long enough. If you have an extra $50,000 laying around, it might be an interesting experiment to see how long it takes to lose it (and all winnings that were built up along the way). I apologize if this is not the answer you wanted.
Sg
Sg
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March 30th, 2021 at 9:59:27 AM permalink
Quote: oboylere

If you are playing a game with the best possible strategy and the house still has the edge, then you should only wager money on that game as a form of entertainment. Unless you are counting cards, edge sorting, etc, you will lose your $50,000 if you play long enough. If you have an extra $50,000 laying around, it might be an interesting experiment to see how long it takes to lose it (and all winnings that were built up along the way). I apologize if this is not the answer you wanted.

In my opinion , The more plops the merrier . ; ). sorry this may not be the answer he is looking for .
jc333
jc333
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March 30th, 2021 at 12:59:45 PM permalink
I appreciate all these responses, this is what I am here for.

Quote: sabre

Just remember, losers leave when they're up. Winners just "pretend" to leave when they're up, the keep playing and win more. That resets everything and keeps the winning going. If you're just going to leave all the time you're going to spend all your time not gambling and not winning.

Do your research.



Sorry I didn't quite understand what you are saying. The purpose of me hitting and quitting a session at a time vs one long sessions is to prevent the state of tilt or numbness from a given sitting. Is this what you are referring to? Yes I am currently doing research thats why I am here, thank you.
jc333
jc333
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March 30th, 2021 at 1:04:16 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I answer this in this blog post
/member/oncedear/blog/6/#post1370
Applies to whatever money management system you can dream up.
Any safe enough 'goal to bankroll' is pretty pointless, except as a fun exercise, since you will, on average, lose everything as often as you double your bankroll.
Your analogy with marbles is sort of correct, but you underestimate how often 'stupid unlucky happens.

Finger in the air estimate, if you start with a bankroll of $36,500 and each day you aspire to either make $100 or lose everything, on a coin toss marty with starting wager of $100, then you can expect to lose 36500 approximately once in the year.
All it would take would be
Lose 100
Lose 200
Lose 400
Lose 800
Lose 1600
Lose 3200
Lose 6400
Lose 12800
Lose 11000

I.e lose 9 wagers in a row..... That's highly likely once per year a 1 in 2^9 event or 1 in 512.
Don't think that's better than 1 in 365, because winning that last toss does not get you back in pocket.

Of course, with baccarat, you also lose into the house edge, making your chances a fair bit worse..

See also /forum/gambling/betting-systems/21359-debunking-roulette-marty-with-pictures/
Which shows how a nice steady 'staircase' bankroll increase can hit oblivion with marty.



ONCEDEAR, thank you for sharing your blog post and info, it looks very interesting and so far very very insightful!
jc333
jc333
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March 30th, 2021 at 1:20:38 PM permalink
Regarding my original question, in your opinion at what point or ratio does this become realistically "safe enough" to execute..

Well, all in all, from the statistical and technical standpoint, I am learning from this forum that this will just not work, even with an extreme $100 goal to 100k bankroll ratio, as long as the bankroll if finite. I'll give the $100 per day a try with "a rack of whites" or 10k bankroll, and hey if I lose the 10k, well hey I won't do it again. :)

I'm planning to start this daily experiment Apr 7, ironically the day I return from my Vegas trip
Last edited by: jc333 on Mar 30, 2021
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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jc333
March 30th, 2021 at 1:50:32 PM permalink
Quote: jc333

Well, all in all, from the statistical and technical standpoint, I am learning from this forum that this will just not work


As always, the devil is in the meaning of 'work'
If 'work' means that you are likely to get a meaningful increase in your starting bankroll at reasonable risk, then no. It won't work.
If 'work' means that you will have some fun and some amusing anecdotes, then it probably will work. But at significant risk.

Possibly the worst case scenario is that you have initial success: Maybe double your bankroll without major loss. Then you can get REALLY addicted. Such addicts often continue with their anecdotes but go a bit quiet about devastating losses.
If you pay attention to my blog, you see the anecdotes: 25 consecutive winning sessions: 45 consecutive winning session, etc. etc.
Though true and amusing, there is a flipside which I seldom post where my bankroll gets slaughtered by the same money management. PLEASE do not be fooled. What you plan to do IS NOT A WINNING PROPOSITION. It has modest risk of losing money at the outset, but serious risk of addiction developing.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
BoSox
BoSox
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jc333
March 30th, 2021 at 3:19:48 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

As always, the devil is in the meaning of 'work'
If 'work' means that you are likely to get a meaningful increase in your starting bankroll at reasonable risk, then no. It won't work.
If 'work' means that you will have some fun and some amusing anecdotes, then it probably will work. But at significant risk.

Possibly the worst case scenario is that you have initial success: Maybe double your bankroll without major loss. Then you can get REALLY addicted. Such addicts often continue with their anecdotes but go a bit quiet about devastating losses.
If you pay attention to my blog, you see the anecdotes: 25 consecutive winning sessions: 45 consecutive winning session, etc. etc.
Though true and amusing, there is a flipside which I seldom post where my bankroll gets slaughtered by the same money management. PLEASE do not be fooled. What you plan to do IS NOT A WINNING PROPOSITION. It has modest risk of losing money at the outset, but serious risk of addiction developing.




Very good post OnceDear! jc333 pay attention you are getting good advice.
TomG
TomG
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jc333
March 30th, 2021 at 4:27:47 PM permalink
Quote: jc333

Would it be reasonable to say one can make a living by making (setting a target of) ie $100 per day using a bankroll of $50,000, perhaps even $12,800?
(Using perhaps one of the many betting systems or a mixture there of)



The math shows that this is true. Making $100 per day at baccarat would be $36,500 per year. That is the equivalent of earning a living at a job that pays $17.50 per hour; it is reasonable to say that is making a living. The baccarat player would have not days off, nor employee funded health care, social security benefits, or other things that come with the other ways people make a living. But the advantage would be, that after one years, instead of making $100 per day off of $50,000, the baccarat player would have $86,500 and could make $173 per day. They year after it would be even more. There are some people who do earn six figures from baccarat.

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