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Oseberg
Oseberg
Joined: Feb 12, 2021
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February 12th, 2021 at 12:24:15 PM permalink
This is from outside the casino to the clever among you!
I am trading in the markets (stocks, commodities etc) and do already make a nice profit.

Out of 8,000 trades I have made an average profit of almost 10% However, I want to increase the profit by using some kind of formula to tell me when to increase and when to decrease my investment from each trade.

To make it easy, lets say I today invest $10 on every trade and 7 out of 10 times i lose $2, and in 3 out of 10 times I gain $8 -so after 10 trades of $10 I have $8x7 and $18x3 = $110 which is a nice 10% profit.

So, if you put 10,000 (or more) random values with 70% minus $2 and 30% pluss $8, how can you increase the profit above 10% by increasing and/or decreasing the investment based on «whatever» indicator?

Should be possible with some kind of «Martingale» as I already have the profit -or am I wrong?
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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February 12th, 2021 at 12:37:55 PM permalink
As you have shown, the expected value of each trade is +10%. If the results are truly random, then nothing will change this.

The best strategy is to trade as much as you can each day, since the more you invest, the more you subject to the +10%.

Of course, this assumes that you can keep up the "lose 20% of the investment 70% of the time, and gain 80% of it the other 30%." If you ask me, the market is just asking for another "correction."
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 12th, 2021 at 12:40:11 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

This is from outside the casino to the clever among you!
I am trading in the markets (stocks, commodities etc) and do already make a nice profit.

Out of 8,000 trades I have made an average profit of almost 10% However, I want to increase the profit by using some kind of formula to tell me when to increase and when to decrease my investment from each trade.

To make it easy, lets say I today invest $10 on every trade and 7 out of 10 times i lose $2, and in 3 out of 10 times I gain $8 -so after 10 trades of $10 I have $8x7 and $18x3 = $110 which is a nice 10% profit.

So, if you put 10,000 (or more) random values with 70% minus $2 and 30% pluss $8, how can you increase the profit above 10% by increasing and/or decreasing the investment based on «whatever» indicator?

Should be possible with some kind of «Martingale» as I already have the profit -or am I wrong?


IF and it's a big if, you have a way of getting an advantage in your trading, then there is indeed a way of maximising your profit while maintaining a controlled risk of ruin....
... Go and research 'Kelly Criteria' and you will find what you seek.
I'm not going to do your homework for you, though.

Word to the wise. Do not come back here posting links to the great website you find that answers your question.

Also, do NOT. ABSOLUTELY DO NOT. take seriously any investment guidance or advice from strangers on websites. There are some guys that make claims of big and easy profits. There are other guys ready to sell you the Brooklyn Bridge.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Oseberg
Oseberg
Joined: Feb 12, 2021
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:09:17 PM permalink
Thank you so much!
Have of course tried to google but never seen the one you suggest. Will spend whatever time needed on that.

I will not take any investment advice as I am ok as is with my own algorytm. I do of course carefull compounding but even nice profit percentage is not enough to retire when investment is a bit limited.

Thanks again!
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:18:45 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


Also, do NOT. ABSOLUTELY DO NOT. take seriously any investment guidance or advice from strangers on websites. There are some guys that make claims of big and easy profits.





wait - hang on just a minute - please - let's slow it down - let's slow it way down for just a minute

you couldn't possibly be suggesting that there is somebody on this website making "claims of big and easy profits" and that those claims may not be true

you know I'm shocked that you could even think something like that




I need a time out

I'm going to take a long, long, break - throw down a double bourbon and diet pepsi and try to put myself back together

my world has been rocked...........................𝙡𝙞𝙠𝙚 𝙩𝙤𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙡𝙮





*
𝘱𝘢𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘰𝘵: 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘩𝘰 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳 𝘭𝘰𝘶𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵............. ᴍᴀʀᴋ ᴛᴡᴀɪɴ
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:31:23 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

Thank you so much!
Have of course tried to google but never seen the one you suggest. Will spend whatever time needed on that.

I will not take any investment advice as I am ok as is with my own algorytm. I do of course carefull compounding but even nice profit percentage is not enough to retire when investment is a bit limited.

Thanks again!


Here you go... https://duckduckgo.com/?q=kelly+criteria+investing

Now, I'll boil that down to a super simple 'system' as I understand it.

Treat every individual trade as a wager. You'll need to know or have estimated the average percentage advantage that you have. The value of your wager should be that percentage of your bank-roll

Use rolling bankroll value, which will ebb and flow as you lose and win, so your bet size will keep changing.

E.g, say you start out with $100 and you know you tend to make 1% on each trade

Stake ONLY $1 on your next trade. (1% of $100)

If you succeed, gain say $0.75 and find yourself now with, say, $101.75 total to hand, your next trade would be putting at risk 1% of $101.75 = $1.0175 or maybe $1.02 after rounding

If on the other hand, your first trade was a dead loss, you would enter the next trade as $99 x 1% = 99c

Apart from practicalities of minimum trade value, you can NEVER go bust. Your funds simply exponentially shrink.
If you genuinely have an edge, your funds would TEND to exponentially grow.

You might think 'I'm confident of my 1% edge, so surely I should invest massively. That is the route to going bust on that rare time your trade goes bad.

If you have multiple simultaneous active trades, it gets more complex.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Feb 12, 2021
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:32:29 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

This is from outside the casino to the clever among you!
I am trading in the markets (stocks, commodities etc) and do already make a nice profit.

Out of 8,000 trades I have made an average profit of almost 10% However, I want to increase the profit by using some kind of formula to tell me when to increase and when to decrease my investment from each trade.

To make it easy, lets say I today invest $10 on every trade and 7 out of 10 times i lose $2, and in 3 out of 10 times I gain $8 -so after 10 trades of $10 I have $8x7 and $18x3 = $110 which is a nice 10% profit.

So, if you put 10,000 (or more) random values with 70% minus $2 and 30% pluss $8, how can you increase the profit above 10% by increasing and/or decreasing the investment based on «whatever» indicator?

Should be possible with some kind of «Martingale» as I already have the profit -or am I wrong?



Once Dear answered ... learn Kelly Criterion.

But additionally.... are you ‘sure’ that you have a system that performs as you state? If your algorithm is that good, how long does it take? Meaning if it takes 3 years to go up the $8 and 2 years on average to lose the $2, or are you saying it happens in a day, week, month, etc....
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:36:23 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

You couldn't possibly be suggesting that there is somebody on this website making "claims of big and easy profits" and that those claims may not be true.

LOL. No such suggestion.
I'm asserting as an immutable truth that on some websites somewhere, there are rogues, fools and even liars that make untrue and dangerous claims.

I'm not qualified to say if any of them frequent this forum $:o) The OP could err on the side of caution.

Cheers
Stay safe.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Oseberg
Oseberg
Joined: Feb 12, 2021
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:48:10 PM permalink
Ok, looked at the Kelly criterion and as I have percentage profit on average but number of trades with profit is only 30% it might not work. However, with your explanation I can use the average expected percented profit and do some heavy duty simultations by randomizing my 8,000 trades thosuands of times - will do.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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February 12th, 2021 at 1:48:39 PM permalink
Quote: Oseberg

This is from outside the casino to the clever among you!
I am trading in the markets (stocks, commodities etc) and do already make a nice profit.

Out of 8,000 trades I have made an average profit of almost 10% However, I want to increase the profit by using some kind of formula to tell me when to increase and when to decrease my investment from each trade.

To make it easy, lets say I today invest $10 on every trade and 7 out of 10 times i lose $2, and in 3 out of 10 times I gain $8 -so after 10 trades of $10 I have $8x7 and $18x3 = $110 which is a nice 10% profit.

So, if you put 10,000 (or more) random values with 70% minus $2 and 30% pluss $8, how can you increase the profit above 10% by increasing and/or decreasing the investment based on «whatever» indicator?

Should be possible with some kind of «Martingale» as I already have the profit -or am I wrong?



I put my money in mutual funds and made 65.28% last year and 19.81% over the last 3 months. You're doing something wrong.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.

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