Mathematicians Roulette random events patterns defying odds

Wizards need help from all mathematicians
calculating an event pattern within a sequence of random events over large number of samples (Not RNG) Roulette Dozens / Columns

Results to start with
59 wins 7 losses
Another to test this wasn’t a fluke was 73 wins 11 losses nets a 51 Unit profit

My interest is in patterns and odds than taking a gamble at something. I need help to curb my curiosity with the hard facts of maths.

Yes these event patterns are rear but watch to many people going up and down before loosing.

Sure the opportunity to bet is limited as this example may be from 20,000 spins but the losses are limited

For 30 years I’ve looked at patterns and gaps within these events and read countless opinions on forums talking about random events and not beating the house edge but don’t understand how to calculate this - usually just uneducated opinions

Question, when does an event no longer become random ?? or am I just kidding myself

There are 3 parts to the pattern before betting.

1. A Run of 12 spins between 2nd 3rd Dozen before hitting on 1st dozen. This is just random right.

2. The pattern I look at is which dozen the ball lands on the 13th spin. Im betting on back to 2nd 3rd dozen, This is the first stage and is still just random I understand. I do cover 2 of the 3 Columns or Dozens.

3. This is where the pattern is important The criteria needs to occur during the 12 spins. Example is hitting on 1st dozen for the 5th spin than 12th spin.

What I’m looking at is when the 1st Dozen is hit at specific points within the set 12 spins. As in 5th and 12th

Sure I may have lost my mind but this tends to be working based on specific combinations. Some better than others when you analyse each combination.

It’s easy to read on forums for years that you don’t win long term against random events that I concur with. But I’d rather wait 60- 100 spins for better than average odds than just betting on a whim.

Wondering what the math is on my example. Which is a set pattern within a range of random events. Is this still considered random ? As the results over the long run to date show otherwise.

I’m interested in your view as to whether this is still considered random from a mathematical perspective. I’m not going to be specific on the exact combinations used as I’ve manually done over 100,000 results and continue to record 4 wheels live daily to analyse.

I’m looking for the weak link in the chain to appear.

Thanks for your interest

who told you random events dont have patterns? who told you random events SHOULDNT have patterns?

WHO TOLD YOU A PHYSICAL ROULETTE WHEEL ISNT A RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR???

How are you defining "wins" and "losses" when you say "59 wins, 7 losses" and "73 wins, 11 losses"?

At first glance, it looks like a case of what I call "shooting the arrows and then drawing the target" - as far as I know, you're looking for a pattern that appears to win, then claim that it will always win, or at least continue to win that many times.

The only reason im interested in this is because you brought up the columns bet BTW. i believe without RRS within a wheel the columns bet is very vulnerable on an american wheel.

are you playing an american wheel?

Great question, No Single 0 Wheel

Quote: Wallywalt29

Great question, No Single 0 Wheel

im out then good luck and i apologize in advance because there are maybe 4 rouletters here and i used to be the 5th

the math people will tell you that you are playing a negative expectation game - although less of a negative expectation than american wheel - still negative expectation - and that you will "outgrow" this pattern you are seeing.

What i would do is, for years (at least two) - secretly record your results and evaluate them again - and then come back. dont brag you want this secret for yourself.

and my last piece of advice is - dont make this into a system - unless you are feeling quite shady and want to lie to people - if you actually want to make money over the long term

Fair comment, a win is a win and loss is loss but I’m covering both Columns/Dozens so the 7 Losses = 14. From 59 wins nets back to 45 Units some for the other example. Regarding arrows and target analogy I fully understand your reasoning as quite often this is how these systems first develop. The important rule is to stay disciplined within your rules so not just to get a good result. I’ve bet and lost enough over the years not to kid myself on paper. That’s at least what I’ve found sometimes between those that just play on paper. Real life as you know is always that kind when you have money riding on it. I spent many years on blogs reading how others were doing this and that and gave it away for many years. I found a lot of the guys got tired from all the questions but mostly happy to help but also weren’t giving the full secret away due to the time and effort these take to develop. I can assure you the win loss is correct and seems quite consistent with minimal drawdown as I prefer fewer but larger bets. I’d prefer to have 3 to 5 good bets than 50 smaller ones a day. I’ll admit there are days which are Zero or -1 with maximum of 7 and 8 based on how I would play. I keep very good records but need around 6 Hours a day. There is no golden nugget. I understand my sample size is still small which is why I’d prefer to understand some maths behind the results. I have around 100 Hrs of work ahead of me. As you know things that sound to good to be true usually aren’t, but have looked at many of the years which I know are a waste of time. This maybe no different and can sometimes be the danger in blogs. I’m just looking for opinions of others. My theory is based on an inexperienced person following Red after 12 Blacks. Sure it’s got to go Red soon but you’ll be out of money before the Casino is. This is based on specific number patterns, but is still just a pattern. At what point to do remove the law of randomness with consistency or is there such a thing ?? My example is only an example as in 5 spins than 7 spins making 12 before and opposite betting opportunity and includes a few others within a specific range. Not sure if this matters based on my original questions. My goal is to constantly return a greater than 2:1 odds advantage if such a thing exists. My original work was done on 20,000 samples that I worked of set rules of new live data over the months of another 20,000 and 3 wheels. Sure some earlier results show different performance than others but I’m looking for the worst outcome in every case. As I know it can still get worse again in real life, usually when you have hard earned riding on it. As simple as it is I have taken a lot of different factors into account knowing how things usually work out. I’m happy just paper trailing it for now and in no hurry to be going live just yet.

Cheers Heatmap, great advice. I followed Baccarat for many years to learn different decks were created in different countries and shuffle masters. I could never see how they talked about the results players were getting. I’m just about be open and honest trying help others where you can but can never give it all away. It may just be a long sequence that’s working for now but thought what are the odds of this really. I only know a handful that I trusted and believed that actually did any good in the long run but prefer Roulette for the fact that the odds of randomness is far better than pre set decks casinos now use. You don’t stand a chance in my view. What used to work one week or month wouldn’t the next. Money you can make more off. Time you can’t get back.

Quote: Wallywalt29

Great question, No Single 0 Wheel

Over time, your results will tend towards a loss of SumOf(1/37th of the chips you put on the layout.)

It's that simple.

Also... Oncedear's rule of thumb

Quote: OnceDear

Over time, your results will tend towards a loss of SumOf(1/37th of the chips you put on the layout.)

blackjack experts have a calculation they call "NO"

it means the number of hands or bets required whereby you can be sure your results will exactly or almost exactly match your true expectation

unfortunately I was not able locate (google) and get a precise definition or a means to calculate it

I'm sure KJ knows this and if he reads this post hopefully he will provide this info

it is very useful info



*

I am having a little trouble just how your method is being implemented. For example:

Quote: Wallywalt29

1. A Run of 12 spins between 2nd 3rd Dozen before hitting on 1st dozen. This is just random right.

2. The pattern I look at is which dozen the ball lands on the 13th spin. Im betting on back to 2nd 3rd dozen, This is the first stage and is still just random I understand. I do cover 2 of the 3 Columns or Dozens.

3. This is where the pattern is important The criteria needs to occur during the 12 spins. Example is hitting on 1st dozen for the 5th spin than 12th spin.

#3 says to look for when the 1st dozen won in the 12 spins - but #1 says that the 1st dozen never won in the 12 spins.

Also, were your two sets of results based on actual bets that you made, or by applying your method to some list of 20,000 existing spins?

Wally..... I really tried reading your posts to figure out what you were saying, and what you are trying to do....

IF you are saying you have looked at some SPECIFIC roulette wheels over thousands of spins and found that certain columns come up more often than others, implying there is something wrong with the wheel, then it is POSSIBLE you could win money over time betting on those columns. (Doubtful, but not impossible) In that case you would probably do better by identifying specific numbers that come up more than 1/35 of the time...


I don't think it is what you are asking. It seems you are trying to imply that you have a betting system that will beat roulette. If that is the case, you can save yourself the 100 hours of work you plan on putting in.... YOU DON"T! As mentioned above, in a fair roulette game, each bet you make comes up against the house edge. The more you bet, the more you are likely to lose.

Quote: Wallywalt29

Wizards need help from all mathematicians...

I'm having a hard time understanding what the question is. Please try to boil it down to as few words as possible and in plain simple correct English.

Quote: Wallywalt29

But I’d rather wait 60- 100 spins for better than average odds than just betting on a whim.

This is your first flaw in thinking.
The odds are always the same,
they never change. If you were
to play this out over a million
spins you would see you have
no advantage. The short term
in roulette is meaningless. You
can walk up to a table and bet
red three times in a row and win.
Meaningless.

Quote: Wallywalt29

Wizards, (I) need help from all mathematicians

the first step

Quote: Wallywalt29

calculating an event pattern within a sequence of random events over large number of samples (Not RNG) Roulette Dozens / Columns

Hes saying that - contrary to what everyone else always says, that he is seeing a reoccurring pattern over a large set of numbers.

Quote: Wallywalt29

Results to start with
59 wins 7 losses
Another to test this wasn’t a fluke was 73 wins 11 losses nets a 51 Unit profit

He won 59 times and lost 7 times withing total of 66 times??
He also won 73 times and lost 11 times out of a total of 84 times??

Does that mean that you bet every single round, or took 66 shots the one time and the result set of spins is more than 66 or 88...?
So there would be a total of 10,000 spins you saw and you bet 66 times out of the 10,000, and those are your results out of those trys?

Quote: Wallywalt29

My interest is in patterns and odds than taking a gamble at something. I need help to curb my curiosity with the hard facts of maths.

IDK what to say sorry

Quote: Wallywalt29

Yes these event patterns are rear but watch to many people going up and down before loosing.

So theres a pattern but its rare im assuming is what you meant by rear.

Quote: Wallywalt29

Sure the opportunity to bet is limited as this example may be from 20,000 spins but the losses are limited

Ah that answers that other question

Quote: Wallywalt29

For 30 years I’ve looked at patterns and gaps within these events and read countless opinions on forums talking about random events and not beating the house edge but don’t understand how to calculate this - usually just uneducated opinions

this is about baccarat, but this is how people here are coming to the conclusions that they are. they are literally time travellers, because computers allow us to run simulations faster than anyone can perform the results on their own in their own lifetime.

Quote: Wallywalt29

Question, when does an event no longer become random ?? or am I just kidding myself

Like i originally said - Who said random numbers dont or shouldnt have patterns?

Quote: Wallywalt29

There are 3 parts to the pattern before betting.

1. A Run of 12 spins between 2nd 3rd Dozen before hitting on 1st dozen. This is just random right.

2. The pattern I look at is which dozen the ball lands on the 13th spin. Im betting on back to 2nd 3rd dozen, This is the first stage and is still just random I understand. I do cover 2 of the 3 Columns or Dozens.

3. This is where the pattern is important The criteria needs to occur during the 12 spins. Example is hitting on 1st dozen for the 5th spin than 12th spin.

What I’m looking at is when the 1st Dozen is hit at specific points within the set 12 spins. As in 5th and 12th

Sure I may have lost my mind but this tends to be working based on specific combinations. Some better than others when you analyse each combination.

It’s easy to read on forums for years that you don’t win long term against random events that I concur with. But I’d rather wait 60- 100 spins for better than average odds than just betting on a whim.

Wondering what the math is on my example. Which is a set pattern within a range of random events. Is this still considered random ? As the results over the long run to date show otherwise.

I’m interested in your view as to whether this is still considered random from a mathematical perspective. I’m not going to be specific on the exact combinations used as I’ve manually done over 100,000 results and continue to record 4 wheels live daily to analyse.

I’m looking for the weak link in the chain to appear.

Thanks for your interest

This is random...



As well as this

Nope, those are electronic reader boards that are rereading/glitching as they read the same roulette number over and over because the optical reader isn't set/calibrated correctly. I've seen this happen on several occasions where a Grips reader board system is fitted to a TCS Starburst roulette wheel. In short, it's not real.

Quote: Keyser

Nope, those are electronic reader boards that are rereading/glitching as they read the same roulette number over and over

I knew that from years ago on
GG but didn't feel like wising
anybody up. I did see seven 00
and 0's in a row in Vegas once.
Freaky, They switched dealers
3 times after the 4th zero. After
the 6th zero there were piles of chips
on the zero's and when it hit
the place went crazy. Once in
a lifetime thing.

Quote: EvenBob

I did see seven 00
and 0's in a row in Vegas once.
Freaky, They switched dealers
3 times after the 4th zero. After
the 6th zero there were piles of chips
on the zero's and when it hit
the place went crazy. Once in
a lifetime thing.

That’s a 1 in 894 million chance, 3 times more remote than winning the powerball jackpot (which is essentially a zero in a lifetime event). Bull-oney

Quote:

Before you read this let me know if this is the correct layout for the wheel you are using as well if the numbers are in the correct order (im a lazy programmer i make mistakes). If not i can change the layout and repost the images for the correct layout type

Quote:

Secondly dont forget about

Look at it from a VB perspective if you will

each image shows green bars above a number in order to illustrate where a bet will land on the wheel as opposed to the felt - it doesnt matter but lets say i have one unit on each "bet type"(column, dozen)

These images each show where a bet will land on for the dozens and columns in that order

remember when you are looking at these that, when in play, each wheel will be going in a specific direction.

when the ball slows down, it will be dropping from a specific section on the wheel as denoted by the 0-11 (clock like numbers)

when the ball drops it will be approaching the numbers hopefully in a linear fashion in order to predict when the ball will slow down at a specific number

First Dozen

Looking at the first layout, we have a maximum gap of 5 numbers and a minimum gap of 1 number
Second Dozen

At this layout, we have a maximum gap of 9 numbers and a minimum gap of 1 number
Third Dozen

At this layout, we have a maximum gap of 6 numbers and a minimum gap of 1 number
Column 1

At this layout, we have a maximum gap of 4 numbers and a minimum gap of 1 number
Column 2

At this layout, we have a maximum gap of 4 numbers and a minimum gap of 1 number
Column 3

Looking at the this last layout, we have a maximum gap of 7 numbers and a minimum gap of 1 number

I cant really explain any further

Quote: Ace2

Bull-oney

Nope. Happened at an off Strip
casino about 2000. It was before
I was playing roulette. I saw
a crowd around the table and
noticed two 00's and two 0's
on the board. Funny thing is,
for the 8th spin there was less
than half as many chips bet
as for the 7th, It's like everybody
knew it was over.

Quote: EvenBob

Nope. Happened at an off Strip
casino about 2000. It was before
I was playing roulette. I saw
a crowd around the table and
noticed two 00's and two 0's
on the board. Funny thing is,
for the 8th spin there was less
than half as many chips bet
as for the 7th, It's like everybody
knew it was over.

So this was before Alan seen someone roll 18 yo's in a row.

Quote: AxelWolf

So this was before Alan seen someone roll 18 yo's in a row.

I had no idea at the time
what a big deal it was for
2 pockets to catch the ball
7 times in a row. It might
have been '98 or'99, it was
in the early days of the
internet. Today it would
draw more attention.

Quote: lilredrooster

blackjack experts have a calculation they call "NO"

it means the number of hands or bets required whereby you can be sure your results will exactly or almost exactly match your true expectation

unfortunately I was not able locate (google) and get a precise definition or a means to calculate it

I'm sure KJ knows this and if he reads this post hopefully he will provide this info

it is very useful info
*

Sorry, I didn't see this. Thanx for the set up, lilredrooster. :)

It is actually N0 (typed N and zero).

Not exactly or almost exactly expectation, but within 1 standard deviation, which is pretty close. If you get above 1 standard D, you are starting to get towards the outer edges of the bell curve. You know, not impossible, but pretty unlikely....like a guy winning all his baccarat trips for a couple years. :/

Since we are talking roulette, an example would be that with a small sample size it would not be unusual to hit blacks at a 2-1 ratio, say 10 out of 15 spins, but with a larger sample size you are not going to continue to hit at 2-1 ratio. It is going to come back down towards "normal" or expectation, meaning within 1 standard deviation.

Now what that N0 would be for something like roulette, I haven't a clue. I am sure there is a formula for it that Wizard, teliot, doghand or someone can post. That is beyond me. I am stupid and just use the software. (for blackjack) LOL>

...........................


thanks KJ


Heatmap:


you are referring to visual prediction
pretty interesting stuff
I tried it briefly but watching the spinning wheel got me dizzy and I gave it up - I didn't succeed

it would be interesting if you could recount some of your experiences and post about your long term results

thanks, if you care to do this




*

Quote: EvenBob

Funny thing is,
for the 8th spin there was less
than half as many chips bet
as for the 7th, It's like everybody
knew it was over.

Not surprising at all. Most people can just feel when a one in a billion streak is about to end

Quote: lilredrooster

...........................


thanks KJ


Heatmap:


you are referring to visual prediction
pretty interesting stuff
I tried it briefly but watching the spinning wheel got me dizzy and I gave it up - I didn't succeed

it would be interesting if you could recount some of your experiences and post about your long term results

thanks, if you care to do this




*

thats actually the skill of VB - to be able to stare at a spinning wheel for hours. I can do that - but actually dont WANT to.

I mean i cant get on a boat for more than an hour without throwing up my lunch. I can do roller coasters, but cant do spinning rides. I just cant explain my ability to stare at the wheel for so long though.

i maybe have a total of a quarter of a years time invested in watching a wheel spin though.

RRS messes everything up. I also dont ever play roulette any more unless im just actually gambling. ive seen some stuff.