February 5th, 2021 at 4:49:14 PM
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Wizards need help from all mathematicians

calculating an event pattern within a sequence of random events over large number of samples (Not RNG) Roulette Dozens / Columns

Results to start with

59 wins 7 losses

Another to test this wasn’t a fluke was 73 wins 11 losses nets a 51 Unit profit

My interest is in patterns and odds than taking a gamble at something. I need help to curb my curiosity with the hard facts of maths.

Yes these event patterns are rear but watch to many people going up and down before loosing.

Sure the opportunity to bet is limited as this example may be from 20,000 spins but the losses are limited

For 30 years I’ve looked at patterns and gaps within these events and read countless opinions on forums talking about random events and not beating the house edge but don’t understand how to calculate this - usually just uneducated opinions

Question, when does an event no longer become random ?? or am I just kidding myself

There are 3 parts to the pattern before betting.

1. A Run of 12 spins between 2nd 3rd Dozen before hitting on 1st dozen. This is just random right.

2. The pattern I look at is which dozen the ball lands on the 13th spin. Im betting on back to 2nd 3rd dozen, This is the first stage and is still just random I understand. I do cover 2 of the 3 Columns or Dozens.

3. This is where the pattern is important The criteria needs to occur during the 12 spins. Example is hitting on 1st dozen for the 5th spin than 12th spin.

What I’m looking at is when the 1st Dozen is hit at specific points within the set 12 spins. As in 5th and 12th

Sure I may have lost my mind but this tends to be working based on specific combinations. Some better than others when you analyse each combination.

It’s easy to read on forums for years that you don’t win long term against random events that I concur with. But I’d rather wait 60- 100 spins for better than average odds than just betting on a whim.

Wondering what the math is on my example. Which is a set pattern within a range of random events. Is this still considered random ? As the results over the long run to date show otherwise.

I’m interested in your view as to whether this is still considered random from a mathematical perspective. I’m not going to be specific on the exact combinations used as I’ve manually done over 100,000 results and continue to record 4 wheels live daily to analyse.

I’m looking for the weak link in the chain to appear.

Thanks for your interest

calculating an event pattern within a sequence of random events over large number of samples (Not RNG) Roulette Dozens / Columns

Results to start with

59 wins 7 losses

Another to test this wasn’t a fluke was 73 wins 11 losses nets a 51 Unit profit

My interest is in patterns and odds than taking a gamble at something. I need help to curb my curiosity with the hard facts of maths.

Yes these event patterns are rear but watch to many people going up and down before loosing.

Sure the opportunity to bet is limited as this example may be from 20,000 spins but the losses are limited

For 30 years I’ve looked at patterns and gaps within these events and read countless opinions on forums talking about random events and not beating the house edge but don’t understand how to calculate this - usually just uneducated opinions

Question, when does an event no longer become random ?? or am I just kidding myself

There are 3 parts to the pattern before betting.

1. A Run of 12 spins between 2nd 3rd Dozen before hitting on 1st dozen. This is just random right.

2. The pattern I look at is which dozen the ball lands on the 13th spin. Im betting on back to 2nd 3rd dozen, This is the first stage and is still just random I understand. I do cover 2 of the 3 Columns or Dozens.

3. This is where the pattern is important The criteria needs to occur during the 12 spins. Example is hitting on 1st dozen for the 5th spin than 12th spin.

What I’m looking at is when the 1st Dozen is hit at specific points within the set 12 spins. As in 5th and 12th

Sure I may have lost my mind but this tends to be working based on specific combinations. Some better than others when you analyse each combination.

It’s easy to read on forums for years that you don’t win long term against random events that I concur with. But I’d rather wait 60- 100 spins for better than average odds than just betting on a whim.

Wondering what the math is on my example. Which is a set pattern within a range of random events. Is this still considered random ? As the results over the long run to date show otherwise.

I’m interested in your view as to whether this is still considered random from a mathematical perspective. I’m not going to be specific on the exact combinations used as I’ve manually done over 100,000 results and continue to record 4 wheels live daily to analyse.

I’m looking for the weak link in the chain to appear.

Thanks for your interest

February 5th, 2021 at 5:01:27 PM
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who told you random events dont have patterns? who told you random events SHOULDNT have patterns?

WHO TOLD YOU A PHYSICAL ROULETTE WHEEL ISNT A RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR???

WHO TOLD YOU A PHYSICAL ROULETTE WHEEL ISNT A RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR???

February 5th, 2021 at 5:15:21 PM
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How are you defining "wins" and "losses" when you say "59 wins, 7 losses" and "73 wins, 11 losses"?

At first glance, it looks like a case of what I call "shooting the arrows and then drawing the target" - as far as I know, you're looking for a pattern that appears to win, then claim that it will always win, or at least continue to win that many times.

At first glance, it looks like a case of what I call "shooting the arrows and then drawing the target" - as far as I know, you're looking for a pattern that appears to win, then claim that it will always win, or at least continue to win that many times.

February 5th, 2021 at 5:22:49 PM
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The only reason im interested in this is because you brought up the columns bet BTW. i believe without RRS within a wheel the columns bet is very vulnerable on an american wheel.

are you playing an american wheel?

are you playing an american wheel?

February 5th, 2021 at 5:35:23 PM
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Great question, No Single 0 Wheel

February 5th, 2021 at 5:40:00 PM
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Quote:Wallywalt29Great question, No Single 0 Wheel

im out then good luck and i apologize in advance because there are maybe 4 rouletters here and i used to be the 5th

the math people will tell you that you are playing a negative expectation game - although less of a negative expectation than american wheel - still negative expectation - and that you will "outgrow" this pattern you are seeing.

What i would do is, for years (at least two) - secretly record your results and evaluate them again - and then come back. dont brag you want this secret for yourself.

and my last piece of advice is - dont make this into a system - unless you are feeling quite shady and want to lie to people - if you actually want to make money over the long term

February 5th, 2021 at 9:55:28 PM
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Fair comment, a win is a win and loss is loss but I’m covering both Columns/Dozens so the 7 Losses = 14. From 59 wins nets back to 45 Units some for the other example. Regarding arrows and target analogy I fully understand your reasoning as quite often this is how these systems first develop. The important rule is to stay disciplined within your rules so not just to get a good result. I’ve bet and lost enough over the years not to kid myself on paper. That’s at least what I’ve found sometimes between those that just play on paper. Real life as you know is always that kind when you have money riding on it. I spent many years on blogs reading how others were doing this and that and gave it away for many years. I found a lot of the guys got tired from all the questions but mostly happy to help but also weren’t giving the full secret away due to the time and effort these take to develop. I can assure you the win loss is correct and seems quite consistent with minimal drawdown as I prefer fewer but larger bets. I’d prefer to have 3 to 5 good bets than 50 smaller ones a day. I’ll admit there are days which are Zero or -1 with maximum of 7 and 8 based on how I would play. I keep very good records but need around 6 Hours a day. There is no golden nugget. I understand my sample size is still small which is why I’d prefer to understand some maths behind the results. I have around 100 Hrs of work ahead of me. As you know things that sound to good to be true usually aren’t, but have looked at many of the years which I know are a waste of time. This maybe no different and can sometimes be the danger in blogs. I’m just looking for opinions of others. My theory is based on an inexperienced person following Red after 12 Blacks. Sure it’s got to go Red soon but you’ll be out of money before the Casino is. This is based on specific number patterns, but is still just a pattern. At what point to do remove the law of randomness with consistency or is there such a thing ?? My example is only an example as in 5 spins than 7 spins making 12 before and opposite betting opportunity and includes a few others within a specific range. Not sure if this matters based on my original questions. My goal is to constantly return a greater than 2:1 odds advantage if such a thing exists. My original work was done on 20,000 samples that I worked of set rules of new live data over the months of another 20,000 and 3 wheels. Sure some earlier results show different performance than others but I’m looking for the worst outcome in every case. As I know it can still get worse again in real life, usually when you have hard earned riding on it. As simple as it is I have taken a lot of different factors into account knowing how things usually work out. I’m happy just paper trailing it for now and in no hurry to be going live just yet.

February 5th, 2021 at 10:38:11 PM
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Cheers Heatmap, great advice. I followed Baccarat for many years to learn different decks were created in different countries and shuffle masters. I could never see how they talked about the results players were getting. I’m just about be open and honest trying help others where you can but can never give it all away. It may just be a long sequence that’s working for now but thought what are the odds of this really. I only know a handful that I trusted and believed that actually did any good in the long run but prefer Roulette for the fact that the odds of randomness is far better than pre set decks casinos now use. You don’t stand a chance in my view. What used to work one week or month wouldn’t the next. Money you can make more off. Time you can’t get back.

February 6th, 2021 at 1:29:53 AM
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Quote:Wallywalt29Great question, No Single 0 Wheel

Over time, your results will tend towards a loss of SumOf(1/37th of the chips you put on the layout.)

It's that simple.

Also... Oncedear's rule of thumb

Take care out there.
Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..

February 6th, 2021 at 2:36:22 AM
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Quote:OnceDearOver time, your results will tend towards a loss of SumOf(1/37th of the chips you put on the layout.)

blackjack experts have a calculation they call "NO"

it means the number of hands or bets required whereby you can be sure your results will exactly or almost exactly match your true expectation

unfortunately I was not able locate (google) and get a precise definition or a means to calculate it

I'm sure KJ knows this and if he reads this post hopefully he will provide this info

it is very useful info

*

𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾