Wallywalt29
Wallywalt29
Joined: Feb 5, 2021
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February 5th, 2021 at 4:49:14 PM permalink
Wizards need help from all mathematicians
calculating an event pattern within a sequence of random events over large number of samples (Not RNG) Roulette Dozens / Columns

Results to start with
59 wins 7 losses
Another to test this wasnít a fluke was 73 wins 11 losses nets a 51 Unit profit

My interest is in patterns and odds than taking a gamble at something. I need help to curb my curiosity with the hard facts of maths.

Yes these event patterns are rear but watch to many people going up and down before loosing.

Sure the opportunity to bet is limited as this example may be from 20,000 spins but the losses are limited

For 30 years Iíve looked at patterns and gaps within these events and read countless opinions on forums talking about random events and not beating the house edge but donít understand how to calculate this - usually just uneducated opinions

Question, when does an event no longer become random ?? or am I just kidding myself

There are 3 parts to the pattern before betting.

1. A Run of 12 spins between 2nd 3rd Dozen before hitting on 1st dozen. This is just random right.

2. The pattern I look at is which dozen the ball lands on the 13th spin. Im betting on back to 2nd 3rd dozen, This is the first stage and is still just random I understand. I do cover 2 of the 3 Columns or Dozens.

3. This is where the pattern is important The criteria needs to occur during the 12 spins. Example is hitting on 1st dozen for the 5th spin than 12th spin.

What Iím looking at is when the 1st Dozen is hit at specific points within the set 12 spins. As in 5th and 12th

Sure I may have lost my mind but this tends to be working based on specific combinations. Some better than others when you analyse each combination.

Itís easy to read on forums for years that you donít win long term against random events that I concur with. But Iíd rather wait 60- 100 spins for better than average odds than just betting on a whim.

Wondering what the math is on my example. Which is a set pattern within a range of random events. Is this still considered random ? As the results over the long run to date show otherwise.

Iím interested in your view as to whether this is still considered random from a mathematical perspective. Iím not going to be specific on the exact combinations used as Iíve manually done over 100,000 results and continue to record 4 wheels live daily to analyse.

Iím looking for the weak link in the chain to appear.

Thanks for your interest
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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February 5th, 2021 at 5:01:27 PM permalink
who told you random events dont have patterns? who told you random events SHOULDNT have patterns?

WHO TOLD YOU A PHYSICAL ROULETTE WHEEL ISNT A RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR???
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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February 5th, 2021 at 5:15:21 PM permalink
How are you defining "wins" and "losses" when you say "59 wins, 7 losses" and "73 wins, 11 losses"?

At first glance, it looks like a case of what I call "shooting the arrows and then drawing the target" - as far as I know, you're looking for a pattern that appears to win, then claim that it will always win, or at least continue to win that many times.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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February 5th, 2021 at 5:22:49 PM permalink
The only reason im interested in this is because you brought up the columns bet BTW. i believe without RRS within a wheel the columns bet is very vulnerable on an american wheel.

are you playing an american wheel?
Wallywalt29
Wallywalt29
Joined: Feb 5, 2021
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February 5th, 2021 at 5:35:23 PM permalink
Great question, No Single 0 Wheel
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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February 5th, 2021 at 5:40:00 PM permalink
Quote: Wallywalt29

Great question, No Single 0 Wheel



im out then good luck and i apologize in advance because there are maybe 4 rouletters here and i used to be the 5th

the math people will tell you that you are playing a negative expectation game - although less of a negative expectation than american wheel - still negative expectation - and that you will "outgrow" this pattern you are seeing.

What i would do is, for years (at least two) - secretly record your results and evaluate them again - and then come back. dont brag you want this secret for yourself.

and my last piece of advice is - dont make this into a system - unless you are feeling quite shady and want to lie to people - if you actually want to make money over the long term
Wallywalt29
Wallywalt29
Joined: Feb 5, 2021
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February 5th, 2021 at 9:55:28 PM permalink
Fair comment, a win is a win and loss is loss but Iím covering both Columns/Dozens so the 7 Losses = 14. From 59 wins nets back to 45 Units some for the other example. Regarding arrows and target analogy I fully understand your reasoning as quite often this is how these systems first develop. The important rule is to stay disciplined within your rules so not just to get a good result. Iíve bet and lost enough over the years not to kid myself on paper. Thatís at least what Iíve found sometimes between those that just play on paper. Real life as you know is always that kind when you have money riding on it. I spent many years on blogs reading how others were doing this and that and gave it away for many years. I found a lot of the guys got tired from all the questions but mostly happy to help but also werenít giving the full secret away due to the time and effort these take to develop. I can assure you the win loss is correct and seems quite consistent with minimal drawdown as I prefer fewer but larger bets. Iíd prefer to have 3 to 5 good bets than 50 smaller ones a day. Iíll admit there are days which are Zero or -1 with maximum of 7 and 8 based on how I would play. I keep very good records but need around 6 Hours a day. There is no golden nugget. I understand my sample size is still small which is why Iíd prefer to understand some maths behind the results. I have around 100 Hrs of work ahead of me. As you know things that sound to good to be true usually arenít, but have looked at many of the years which I know are a waste of time. This maybe no different and can sometimes be the danger in blogs. Iím just looking for opinions of others. My theory is based on an inexperienced person following Red after 12 Blacks. Sure itís got to go Red soon but youíll be out of money before the Casino is. This is based on specific number patterns, but is still just a pattern. At what point to do remove the law of randomness with consistency or is there such a thing ?? My example is only an example as in 5 spins than 7 spins making 12 before and opposite betting opportunity and includes a few others within a specific range. Not sure if this matters based on my original questions. My goal is to constantly return a greater than 2:1 odds advantage if such a thing exists. My original work was done on 20,000 samples that I worked of set rules of new live data over the months of another 20,000 and 3 wheels. Sure some earlier results show different performance than others but Iím looking for the worst outcome in every case. As I know it can still get worse again in real life, usually when you have hard earned riding on it. As simple as it is I have taken a lot of different factors into account knowing how things usually work out. Iím happy just paper trailing it for now and in no hurry to be going live just yet.
Wallywalt29
Wallywalt29
Joined: Feb 5, 2021
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February 5th, 2021 at 10:38:11 PM permalink
Cheers Heatmap, great advice. I followed Baccarat for many years to learn different decks were created in different countries and shuffle masters. I could never see how they talked about the results players were getting. Iím just about be open and honest trying help others where you can but can never give it all away. It may just be a long sequence thatís working for now but thought what are the odds of this really. I only know a handful that I trusted and believed that actually did any good in the long run but prefer Roulette for the fact that the odds of randomness is far better than pre set decks casinos now use. You donít stand a chance in my view. What used to work one week or month wouldnít the next. Money you can make more off. Time you canít get back.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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February 6th, 2021 at 1:29:53 AM permalink
Quote: Wallywalt29

Great question, No Single 0 Wheel


Over time, your results will tend towards a loss of SumOf(1/37th of the chips you put on the layout.)

It's that simple.

Also... Oncedear's rule of thumb
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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Thanks for this post from:
Wallywalt29
February 6th, 2021 at 2:36:22 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Over time, your results will tend towards a loss of SumOf(1/37th of the chips you put on the layout.)




blackjack experts have a calculation they call "NO"

it means the number of hands or bets required whereby you can be sure your results will exactly or almost exactly match your true expectation

unfortunately I was not able locate (google) and get a precise definition or a means to calculate it

I'm sure KJ knows this and if he reads this post hopefully he will provide this info

it is very useful info



*
𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳.........𝖤𝖽𝗀𝖺𝗋 𝖠𝗅𝗅𝖺𝗇 𝖯𝗈𝖾

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