Wizard
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Wizard
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Zuga
July 27th, 2020 at 3:43:33 PM permalink
In my continued look at free betting systems, the next shall be the D'Alembert. It is pretty simple to use. Like most betting systems, it is simplest on even-money bets.

  1. Decide your unit size, starting bet, bankroll, and winning goal.
  2. After a loss, increase your bet by one unit.
  3. After a win, decrease your bet by one unit.
  4. Keep repeating until you have achieved your winning goal or have run out of money


I assume two exceptions:

  1. If the next bet would cause you to overshoot your winning goal, then drop it to whatever would result in exactly achieving it.
  2. If you don't have enough money to cover the next bet, drop down to betting whatever you have.


Here is a video showing an example. I'm not sure why the sound is poor, maybe because I had two fans going.


Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJ6NKjimHko&feature=youtu.be

My questions for now are:
1. Is my understanding of the system correct?
2. How do you pronounce D'Alembert?
3. If used in the middle of a sentence, which letters do you capitalize in D'Alembert?
Last edited by: Wizard on Jul 27, 2020
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ChumpChange
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July 27th, 2020 at 4:06:51 PM permalink
You showed us how you lost, do another video showing how you win.
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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July 27th, 2020 at 4:06:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard


2. How do you pronounce D'Alembert?
3. If used in the middle of a sentence, which letters do you capitalize in D'Alembert?




Wikipedia describes how it's pronounced
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean_le_Rond_d'Alembert

dæləmˈbɛər/

Whatever that means https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Help:IPA/English

It's small 'd' and capital A
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Jul 27, 2020
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
Gialmere
Gialmere
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July 27th, 2020 at 5:20:57 PM permalink
Wow! Talk about a banker friendly shoe. That was brutal.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
ThatDonGuy
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July 28th, 2020 at 8:25:08 AM permalink
Do you have a copy of Ethier's The Doctrine of Chances? (I think this was MustangSally's go-to book for things like this.) There is an analysis of d'Alembert on pages 289-292.
DeMango
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July 28th, 2020 at 8:52:02 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Do you have a copy of Ethier's The Doctrine of Chances? (I think this was MustangSally's go-to book for things like this.) There is an analysis of d'Alembert on pages 289-292.


Amazon has it for $50 and up!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
Wizard
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Wizard
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July 28th, 2020 at 9:36:27 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Do you have a copy of Ethier's The Doctrine of Chances? (I think this was MustangSally's go-to book for things like this.) There is an analysis of d'Alembert on pages 289-292.



Yes, thank you for mentioning it. I do indeed have his book. I didn't know Ethier addressed this topic.

He says stopping factors are:

1. Win on first bet.
2. Total number of wins equal total number of losses
3. Ruin

He notes if the second marker is bet, the profit will be equal to the number of wins/losses. He then goes onto giving a formula for the probability of this happening.

I have not seen another source echo this second stopping point. Usually with any system there is a specific monetary winning goal.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
odiousgambit
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Thanks for this post from:
OnceDear
July 28th, 2020 at 11:10:09 AM permalink
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Wizard
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July 28th, 2020 at 12:44:35 PM permalink
Assuming the player starts with a bet of one unit, he will have a profit of one unit at the following counts of wins and losses. Note how wins are always less. You can see losses are a geometric progression. If you subtract one from the wins, that is a geometric progression too. Here are the win and losses goals by x:

Wins = 1+(x-1)*x/2
Losses = x*(x+1)/2

x Wins Losses
1 1 0
2 2 3
3 4 6
4 7 10
5 11 15
6 16 21
7 22 28
8 29 36
9 37 45
10 46 55
11 56 66
12 67 78
13 79 91
14 92 105
15 106 120
16 121 136
17 137 153
18 154 171
19 172 190
20 191 210
21 211 231
22 232 253
23 254 276
24 277 300
25 301 325
26 326 351
27 352 378
28 379 406
29 407 435
30 436 465


Assuming the player never goes positive, the balance is a formula of the numbers of wins (W) and losses (L), as follows. Let D = L-W.

Balance = W - D*(D+1)/2
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ThatDonGuy
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July 28th, 2020 at 1:29:53 PM permalink
Correct me if I'm wrong, but, assuming the first bet is a loss and the number of losses exceeds the number of wins until the last bet of the run, if the player has a run of N losses and N wins in some order, won't the profit be N?

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