woodyutr8
woodyutr8
Joined: Jun 21, 2020
  • Threads: 1
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June 21st, 2020 at 8:41:37 PM permalink
Hi guys,

I'm new here, but have been following this site for years. Though when registering for this forum I already got a warning that this forum is not full of betting system believers I'm going to give it a try with my first post! I have been playing poker professionally for years and now a trader on the stock market so I'm obviously not some half-addicted martingale believer.

So the thing I'd like to bring up is that me and my friends ( especially when drinking) like to play blackjack with a very progressive betting system (betting progressively more when winning). So far we have been doing pretty well over probably 50+ sessions which I have no reason to believe is non-random but it did get me thinking.

Would there be a chance that betting progressively on blackjack decreases the house-edge, or even turns it into player advantage, because it proxies for card-counting. So important things then would be: What are the odds of winning a hand when deck is hot vs cold. Even is this is not significantly higher. Would it then make sense to increase a bet after a blackjack or 20-score win? Anyone given this any thought already maybe?

bas
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 168
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June 21st, 2020 at 9:12:24 PM permalink
There is a book called the Blackjack Zone that destroys many myths that people try to apply to BJ.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 24
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June 22nd, 2020 at 2:26:53 AM permalink
There's no stopping a losing streak. Lower your bets accordingly. My home computer game would rather me lose 8 x 25 hands before I win 15-25 hands. Degree of difficulty maxed out without a setting.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
Joined: Jun 15, 2018
  • Threads: 24
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June 22nd, 2020 at 2:36:57 AM permalink
I have won with my beginner's luck enough to try out a few progressions and it depends on whether I favor increasing my bets for every 5 hands I'm ahead, especially if the shoe is choppy; or just go with a 12 in-a-row progression that loses a bit unless I hit 3 in-a-row or more for a streaky win shoe.

I'm told every bet has the same House Edge; unless you're counting cards; so who is right? Idk. If you bet into a winning shoe with a progression, you'll be adding to the House Advantage with an invisible tip. Your bigger wins just make the HA a little irrelevant because you've got some chips coming in. What goes up, must come down, so watch out on the shuffle-up.

I'm gonna try to build up a 1500 hand bankroll from nothing, and keep it at least 1500 hands.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jun 22, 2020
Reebore
Reebore
Joined: Apr 1, 2020
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June 24th, 2020 at 2:31:51 AM permalink
The odds of winning any hand in blackjack are not dependent on whether you won or lost the previous hand, which is why betting progressions fail. No progressive betting system alone will overcome the house edge in the long run. The success of the positive-progressive betting depends on how many hands you will win and how consistent your winning streaks will be, which can't be predicted. At least counting has some logic behind it.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 95
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June 24th, 2020 at 7:24:13 AM permalink
Quote: woodyutr8

Would it then make sense to increase a bet after a blackjack or 20-score win? Anyone given this any thought already maybe?


No, and here's why:

Suppose it's just you and the dealer.
(a) You are dealt Ace-King; the dealer is dealt 6-3.
(b) You are dealt 6-3; the dealer is dealt Ace-King.
In both cases, the remaining cards in the deck are the same.
Therefore, whatever cards you were dealt are irrelevant.
Minty
Minty
Joined: Jan 23, 2015
  • Threads: 7
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June 24th, 2020 at 11:51:28 AM permalink
First off, glad you aren't a big fan of the martingale. That one has grabbed a lot of people, unfortunately. Secondly, if you aren't counting how do you know when the shoe is "hot?" It's not uncommon to win many hands in low counts when a player might expect to lose more often. Finally, raising your bet after a blackjack if you're not counting), world be a move in the wrong direction since those cards will lower the count.

I remember reading about someone who had a set of rules they would follow for when they would raise and lower their bets. It had to do with if they won, pushed, lost or got blackjack on the previous hand. Well, it ended up being about a break even game or barely positive, but it looked like counting and the person doing it was asked not to play anymore. Anyone remember what I'm talking about?

If you're looking to make more money at the game you should pick up counting. It's not terribly difficult with a lot of practice, and I'm sure you'd see some crossover from your trading in terms of the skills you use.
"Just because I'm not doing anything illegal, doesn't mean I won't have to defend myself someday." -Chip Reese

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