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Bullseye
Bullseye
Joined: May 17, 2020
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 6
May 17th, 2020 at 6:40:16 PM permalink
This is a satoshi/crypto DICE site. This particular one has only a 0.1% House Edge, but that is not really relevant to my question.

I am running a bot script that bets a Martingale strategy. To keep it simple, i will use a 2x multiplier and a bet unit of 1 (which is actually like $0.0025)

Starting Balance = 128700
Starting Bet = 1
Multiplier on Loss = 2
Reset to Starting Bet on Win
Script Auto-Withdraws 1300 when balance = 130,000 and keeps betting

With these settings my 16th loss in a row will lose me a total of 65,535 and be unable to place the next bet of 65,536, since my remaining balance would be too small to be placed. So i am left with half(ish) my original bankroll plus 1300 times the amount of auto-withdrawals.

according to the dice site, the odds of losing 16 bets in a row at 49.95% is 1 in every 64497 bets
according to , the odds of losing 16 bets in a row over 64497 bets at 50.05% chance-to-lose is 39.314%
These results seem to be at odds. am i missing something?

Now to the meat of the question...

Should i double my starting bet? That would cut the number of bets before cashout in half, but reduces my bust(half-bust) number to 15 in a row (bust 1 in 32281 bets)
Should i halve my starting bet? That would double the number of bets before cashout, but increase my half-bust number to 17 losses in a row (bust 1 in 128864 bets)

...and up or down from there. Is there a safer option or is it does it all boil down to the same odds? is it the same odds if i double my starting bet or halve it considering there will be more or less bets?

I know that if i set my starting bet too high and only allow 5 losses in a row before half-bust, i will half-bust too often to be profitable. but am i taking on the same amount of risk by slowing down my withdrawals but vastly increasing my number of bets?

...whew...
sodawater
sodawater
Joined: May 14, 2012
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May 17th, 2020 at 7:36:18 PM permalink
Quote: Bullseye


according to the dice site, the odds of losing 16 bets in a row at 49.95% is 1 in every 64497 bets
according to , the odds of losing 16 bets in a row over 64497 bets at 50.05% chance-to-lose is 39.314%
These results seem to be at odds. am i missing something?



Maybe because you could possibly lose 16 times in a row more than once in 64497 rolls? And one site is telling you the chances of exactly once and the other is telling at least once?

In any event, why would you use a bot to automate rolling on a negative-expectation game? You're just going to lose faster. The whole point of playing dice is for the fun, not the profit, since you expect to lose.
Bullseye
Bullseye
Joined: May 17, 2020
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May 17th, 2020 at 9:44:09 PM permalink
Fun? Fun has nothing to do with money.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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May 17th, 2020 at 10:03:35 PM permalink
Quote: Bullseye

Fun? Fun has nothing to do with money.



everyone is expected to do one thing on here otherwise you deviate and are assured to be called crazy. because the long term is bleak, you shouldnt believe that profit is ever possible because the math says so... someone please give me a generic response as to why i am wrong because even if you are right no one believes me or you
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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May 17th, 2020 at 10:05:54 PM permalink
i personally am interested in your bot, not specifically the code but in general i like to talk to the type of person you are. pm me for any reason no matter how crazy. i have background in computer science although no background in the gaming industry yet
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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May 17th, 2020 at 11:10:19 PM permalink
Quote: heatmap

everyone is expected to do one thing on here otherwise you deviate and are assured to be called crazy. because the long term is bleak, you shouldnt believe that profit is ever possible because the math says so... (snip)


I agree.

----
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/34655-the-labouch-re/

To the OP: I recommend you read the post about " the Labouchère" (Edit: see link above) for an example of why any betting system can not overcome the house edge, no matter how small that house edge is (at least see extract below, if you don't want to read the whole link).

Notice in the extract that the "Ratio money lost to Money bet" % is always the same, no matter what your starting bank roll is.

Extract:

"...As a reminder the house edge in baccarat on the Player bet is 1.365%, if you ignore ties. Here are the results. The starting bankroll is along the top row and the goal is to always win 10 units. The total sessions played in the simulation was over 12 billion...."

"
Starting Bankroll 50 100 250 500 1000 2500
Probability winning goal reached 81.47% 89.52% 95.34% 97.53% 98.71% 99.45%
Average number of bets 17.810 19.565 20.766 21.184 21.404 21.542
Average units bet 82.023 112.075 155.106 189.515 225.548 275.329
Expected win per session -1.119 -1.530 -2.117 -2.584 -3.078 -3.754
Ratio money lost to Money bet 1.36% 1.36% 1.36% 1.36% 1.36% 1.36%
"




---
Update (about 1145 pm)

About 3 years ago, I could play a game with a neutral or even a slight player edge, where the casino also paid me a commission### of 0.3% on all money wagered, so if you are in a similar situation where the "commission is greater than the house edge", then you could have a good/profitable system^^^.

###: They don't offer any game at the moment where the commission is greater than the house edge, so I don't play there anymore.

^^^: Flat betting is probably the best strategy to use, if you are getting paid a commission for your play and it is greater than the house edge.

Note: If they do offer a commission, then it is probably best to PM someone rather than post about it publicly, like I have done in the past, but it is your choice.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on May 18, 2020
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 17th, 2020 at 11:32:04 PM permalink
Quote: Bullseye

Fun? Fun has nothing to do with money.

is there any type of rebate or some type of bonuses available?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
Joined: Oct 20, 2013
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  • Posts: 902
May 18th, 2020 at 12:17:31 AM permalink
Quote: Bullseye

(snip)according to the dice site, the odds of losing 16 bets in a row at 49.95% is 1 in every 64497 bets (snip)


If the chance of winning is 49.95% and the chance of losing is 50.05%, then I get a 1/66,593... chance of losing 16 bets in a row out of 16 bets in total (not a big difference, but i don't know why our answers are different)
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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  • Posts: 4616
May 18th, 2020 at 2:11:25 AM permalink
Quote: Bullseye

Fun? Fun has nothing to do with money.

But you mention Martingale, and Martingale is a way of making losing money more fun..... But then you are letting the bot have the fun, so I guess writing and watching the bot is your source of fun.

Anyway, Just in case you think you have an idea for a profitable venture, let's knock that on the head with OnceDear's rule of thumb

Martingale is perfectly fine for making a small profit by putting a large bankroll at risk.
E.g. if you had $900 and were about to be shot unless you could bribe the firing squad with $1,000 then Martingale would probably save your life and would be a great idea.
But Martingale for income is on par with wagering on russian roulette.

Oh..... And believe me: Online casinos can get quite aggressive in confiscating funds from bot users.
Take care out there. Spare a thought for the newly poor who were happy in their world just a few days ago, but whose whole way of life just collapsed..
DogHand
DogHand
Joined: Sep 24, 2011
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 403
May 18th, 2020 at 3:41:50 AM permalink
Quote: Bullseye

This is a satoshi/crypto DICE site. This particular one has only a 0.1% House Edge<snip>

Now to the meat of the question...

Should i double my starting bet?<snip>



Bullseye,

The answer depends on your goal.

If your goal is to increase your bankroll (the usual goal of AP's), then the answer is no: rather, you should lower your starting bet to zero, because you never have an edge on your wager.

On the other hand, if your goal is something else, please provide a quantifiable goal and I or someone else here will answer you.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

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