What systems are best?

Quote: NewtoTown

I agree with your comment. The only reason I don't play live is my bankroll is not large enough to play the very system you reference that is the only system I have tested that works 'so far' on paper.

There no such thing as working "so far". There's working, and not working. Your system doesn't work.

Hi Sabre,

Breaking down your statement... I have not run an infinite number of decisions, therefore, I can only say 'so far'. However, so far means over 200 hours of logged real data and hundreds more hours of sim data... so that's a fair bit of data considering all the expected results sync up with what you would expect... length of positive and negative strings, house edge, number of P and DP decisions, number of 12's appearing as frequently as expected and on and on and on.

How many decisions would I have to make it through (a) *without* exceeding the house limit and (b) how many times would I have to multiply the starting bankroll without losing a single bankroll for the system to be to be considered working?

Would you say 100,000 decisions? 500k? 1 million decisions? Hmmmm, you are entitled to your opinion, but it is amazing how you can render an opinion *without* having all the facts. Sure, it might seem impossible.... but....

Many things were thought to be impossible, until they weren't? No?

How about the doctor who was ridiculed and scorned by his peers (i.e., other acclaimed doctors) for claiming he had found the source and cure for common ulcers, until his peers were proven wrong and the doc went on to earn the Nobel Prize.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/9576387/ns/health-health_care/t/two-australians-win-nobel-prize-medicine/#.XjY-0mhKg2w


Closer to home in the field of mathematics/physics... after hundreds of years someone should have discovered this, but didn't till 2019...

"After breakfast one morning in August, the mathematician Terence Tao opened an email from three physicists he didn’t know. The trio explained that they’d stumbled across a simple formula that, if true, established an unexpected relationship between some of the most basic and important objects in linear algebra.

The formula “looked too good to be true,” said Tao, who is a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, a Fields medalist, and one of the world’s leading mathematicians. “Something this short and simple — it should have been in textbooks already,” he said. “So my first thought was, no, this can’t be true.”

https://www.quantamagazine.org/neutrinos-lead-to-unexpected-discovery-in-basic-math-20191113/

https://dailybruin.com/2019/11/25/ucla-mathematician-helps-prove-simplified-equation-discovered-by-physicists/

OK... not close enough for home:

How about this.... The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code: Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-05-03/the-gambler-who-cracked-the-horse-racing-code


Hmmm, while mathematicians can say that a game of negative expectation can *not* be beat, that will be true... until it's not.

We can't travel at the speed of light as yet, but that does not mean we won't be able to in the future.

All I am saying is that 'so far my system has not lost a bankroll, not exceeded the house limits and continues winning as I run it through more and more data compounding the number of bankrolls (and yes, accurately stated... 'so far' has not lost a single BR).

Soooo, regarding your comment on "There's working, and not working.".... so far my system, putting it through a lot of valid data, is *not* -- not -- working, to use a double negative :-)

I would be happy to disambiguate my phraseology if I felt it was inaccurate, but it is not. It is spot on.

Anyway, thank you for the input. Negative input has fueled many an enthusiast to work even harder to achieve their goals.

A man jumps off the Empire State Building.
As he passes the 75th floor his cell phone rings.
He answers it as he go by the 50th floor.
Around the 40thfloor he finds out its his best friend.
"How's it going", ask his friend as the 20thfloor goes by.
As the from ground gets closer and closer, the man simply replies
"So far, so good".

Quote: NewtoTown

I will "gamble" my $6,000 as soon as I can find any system that lets me get through all of my data and achieve a minimum of a 3.5 to 4x return, and preferably higher (like a 5x to 10x) ROI -- and also not even once lose the initial bankroll.

....I have, real data, where the Wins on Pass line versus DP were 1/3 or less for well over an hour, and I've seen negative stretches of data where P versus DP for Craps (or Banker versus Player for Bac) lose at the rate of 60% or higher for close to 10 hours consecutive (~7.5 hours on one set of logged data) and (nearly 10 hours on another set of data, real logged data, not sim data).

You definitely won’t find the holy grail playing Craps. Betting a $5 DP, with 10X odds (0.1256 HE) using the Zumma real dice rolls, lost $4K, before turning around and winning an average of only 3.5 cents per hand after 35,000 rolls, or 291 hrs of play.

Good one and funny :-). Love it!

Look, I get it (as mentioned over and over again)... the formula as presented by OnceDear -- BR/(BR+Desired Win) = Chance you will likely achieve such an event (adjusted even lower for the house edge), but given that I get it... I also stick by the fact that everything that was once impossible, isn't... once it was possible.

I am only seeking out ideas that I may not have thought of (when using a tiny BR of $5k to $6k) that could lead to a better or possibly safer path to get to $20k so I can use a formula that I feel pretty comfortable with at this point (which thus far has made it through significant testing if starting with $20k as the BR).

I came to that conclusion because much like the guy who cracked the algo for horse raising (noted in a previous thread/email/link) and went on to make his $ from that algo (that methodology/strategy/formula was previously undiscovered till he invented it). I also was given a very good starting point from a guy who told me how he has gone for years and years and never lost his bankroll... he uses a BR over $50k. I met this guy in Malaysia and he's pretty smart with a doctorate. I took modified his formula and have been able to achieve the results he told me to expect [on paper because I do not have $50k but thought I could one day get to $20k] (and based on a $20k BR the results keep coming in as expected, and never once in many hundreds of hours of testing -- thus far -- and continuing to test) have I lost the BR or needed to exceed the HL (house limits, or come even close to that). Does that I mean I will never lose a BR or even on paper give it all back... who knows? I will have to lose one hell of a lot of money over and over again for that to happen.

That being said, I cannot, thus far, get the complex formulas to work on a $6k BR, yet will continue working on that. I have only turned to the forum because there are a lot of seasoned gamblers as well as mathematicians who have been at this for years on end, and more advice is just that, more advice. I don't take anything at face value, I test, and then retest etc. And most importantly love the feedback/ideas etc.

Anyway, thank you billryan for the funny interlude. I liked it!

Thanks for the continued input Tanko. As always, greatly appreciated.

What game would you suggest and why? Years and years ago before FR etc., I used to count, and have played on teams. Did it work, yes. But there were some pretty big swings, up and down (and the BR was not mine, just my share of the wins). With the advent of FR and other tools the house now employs, I personally will not go that way again (i.e., counting).

Tanko, I am curious as to what game you would suggest and why?

....................................................................................................................................................

I am finding it hard to win consistently over time/double+ the BR --at Craps-- (or any other game) using a very modified version of a 'complicated to play' formula (and low BR of $6k).

The first thing I tested was Zumma. The formula at a $20k BR breezed through Zumma, but that is such a tiny data set that, while good data, it is statistically invalid if using only that data set. I have gone on to beat a much more difficult data set that I have collected over time (real time logs) and all is well there too (using a $20 BR as the starting premise), as well as I am now plowing through simulated data (which validates based on checking DP W/L rate, P W/L rate, number of 12s, expected number of rolls per decision etc, and of course expected ratio of each number [other than 12]).

The above has held true for the formulas I am using that require a $20k BR, BUT the above has *not* been achieved (including beating Zumma) trying to adjust the BR down to a $6k BR. I am not sure I will ever be able to achieve that. The professional who gave me the starting point said I'd never lose based on what he taught me (if I used less than a $50K+ BR), but with lot of effort I 'thus far' have been able to do so... BUT dropping to a $6k and achieving the same results is proving to be more than challenging, not to mentioned the hourly win rate is not acceptable.

Others may have posted a more accurate recent formula, I'm using old mid-'1990's formulas. From Sept. 6, 2019 #Winearlyandwinbig!

THE HOUSE EDGE WILL EAT UP YOUR POTENTIAL WINS IN BLACKJACK.
If you play 100 hands, the square root would be 10 hands; HA would be 0.5 hands.^^^^^^^^^(-10.5, +9.5)
If you play 400 hands, the square root would be 20 hands; HA would be 2 hands.^^^^^^^^^^(-22, +18)
If you play 900 hands, the square root would be 30 hands; HA would be 4.5 hands.^^^^^^^^^(-34.5, +25.5)
If you play 1,600 hands, the square root would be 40 hands; HA would be 8 hands.^^^^^^^^^(-48, +32)
If you play 2,500 hands, the square root would be 50 hands; HA would be 12.5 hands.^^^^^^^(-62.5, +37.5) *
If you play 3,600 hands, the square root would be 60 hands; HA would be 18 hands.^^^^^^^^(-78, +42)
If you play 4,900 hands, the square root would be 70 hands; HA would be 24.5 hands.^^^^^^^(-94.5, +45.5)
If you play 6,400 hands, the square root would be 80 hands; HA would be 32 hands.^^^^^^^^(-112, +48)
If you play 8,100 hands, the square root would be 90 hands; HA would be 40.5 hands.^^^^^^^(-130.5, +49.5)

If you play 10,000 hands, the square root would be 100 hands; HA would be 50 hands.^^^^^^^(-150, +50) PEAK
If you play 40,000 hands, the square root would be 200 hands; HA would be 200 hands.^^^^^^(-400, 0)
If you play 90,000 hands, the square root would be 300 hands; HA would be 450 hands.^^^^^^(-750, -150)
If you play 160,000 hands, the square root would be 400 hands; HA would be 800 hands.^^^^^(-1200, -400)
If you play 250,000 hands, the square root would be 500 hands; HA would be 1,250 hands.^^^^(-1750, -750)
If you play 360,000 hands, the square root would be 600 hands; HA would be 1,800 hands.^^^^(-2400, -1200)
If you play 490,000 hands, the square root would be 700 hands; HA would be 2,450 hands.^^^^(-3150, -1750)
If you play 640,000 hands, the square root would be 800 hands; HA would be 3,200 hands.^^^^(-4000, -2400)
If you play 810,000 hands, the square root would be 900 hands; HA would be 4,050 hands.^^^^(-4950, -3150)
If you play 1,000,000 hands, the square root would be 1,000 hands; HA would be 5,000 hands.^^(-6000, -4000)

The more you play at a 0.5% HA, the more it's going to eat up any positive variation you can get until you are totally in the hole. Win early, and win big!

Seems there's a peak somewhere between 10,000 and 40,000 hands. Let me see if I can find it.
If you play 12,100 hands, the square root would be 110 hands; HA would be 60.5 hands.^^^^^^(-170.5, +49.5)
If you play 15,625 hands, the square root would be 125 hands; HA would be 78 hands.^^^^^^^(-203, +47)
If you play 22,500 hands, the square root would be 150 hands; HA would be 112.5 hands.^^^^^(-262.5, +37.5) *
If you play 30,625 hands, the square root would be 175 hands; HA would be 153 hands.^^^^^^(-328, +22)

* If I wanted a win goal of 37.5 hands, I should settle for it somewhere between hands 2,500 and 22,500, and the sooner the better. I could lose 7 times 37.5 units at the latter number of hands.

I'd probably stick to near 400 hand sessions and either lose 25 hands or win 20 hands and quadruple my buy-in.

These calculations are for 1 standard deviation. YMMV
If I play 400 hand sessions and have a 2 standard deviation streak, I could be down 42 hands or up 38 hands, (and get to my 37.5 unit win goal).
If I play 10,000 hand sessions and have a 3 standard deviation streak, I could be down 350 hands or up 250 hands.

If you play 400 hands, the square root would be 20 hands; HA would be 2 hands.^^^^^^^^^^(-22, +18)

Thanks CC.

This is the type of creative/input I am seeking.

I get it, it's not a guaranteed thing, but it's giving me something to think about, food for thought and possibly an option for a risk I might take after I run the numbers/play it out.

Would you use this approach in BJ? Or, Craps with odds (1-2x)?

Also, let me recap a small bit to see if I have the gist…

Let’s use BJ as an example (basic strategy in place appropriate to the number of decks/circumstances).

1) I play 400 hands.

2) I am down 22 hands (let’s say $220 at a $10 base unit).

3) I double the buy-in (which by the way, what would the buy-in be? -- $220 or $420 to account for a standard deviation streak).

4) OK, back to “if I’m down $220”, I buy-in let’s say for (4x the original buy-in at $880 or would that be $1,680 [$420 x 4] to account for a Std Dev of 2)?

5) In any event, my base unit would now be $40 (not $10) and I am shooting for either 18 wins or 22 losses.

6) If I win 18 units at any point (even before 400 hands), would I drop back to a base unit of $10?

7) At an 18 unit win ($40 base unit), I’d be at $720 up, less the original buy-in of $220 (or $420, whichever it was supposed to be)… leaving me with a net profit of $500 (or $300), then repeat?

8) If I lost the second buy-in at $880 (or, $1,680), would I then quadruple again, at say $3,520 ($880x4) or ($6,720 [$1,680 x 4] – although that would put me over my $6,000 total bankroll). I guess I could buy-in for $3,520 on the 3rd attempt and hope for only 1 Std Dev.

9) The goal of this 3rd attempt being to win 18 units at any point putting me at 18 x $160 (i.e., quadruple the last buy-in’s base unit).

18 x $160 = $2,880 allowing me to have recouped my original buy-in of $420 + 2nd buy-in of $1,680 for a total of $780 remaining $ as my net profit, then I return to a base unit of $10 and repeat?

10) Or, would you return to the base unit of $10 as soon as recouping the $420+$1,680 buy-in (even before netting a profit on this 3rd buy-in)?

…………………………….
CC -- Did I get the gist of this correct?
……………………………

……………………………
Also, if I win at a base unit of $10, would you be suggesting pressing upward to a higher buy-in or only upping the buy-in if a previous buy-in were to be lost?
……………………………

……………………………
Would you be counting the Blackjacks as bonus profit, siphoning off the extra 50% and still shooting for 18 wins?
……………………………

Or, would you suggest doing the above strategy with Craps (using or not using odds) and why would you suggest that versus BJ?

THANK YOU CC…

I know my posts annoy the strictly math-based guys/gals, but I am not seeking the Holy Grail, just looking for ways I can rip through mountains of data I’ve collected since the 80s, and see if I feel comfortable. I’ve never played professionally except for back when I was with a team in Pasadena that got started because of another tech-school/engineering school in Boston that did so rather loudly. I had a business for years that did phenomenally well, and the accountant partner, who took care of everything, cleaned my wife and I out when we took a year off. We could have declared BR, and walked away, but the honorable thing to do was to close the show down, pay the debt off and literally live in a trailer (actually a tent for a while). Along the way the wife got sick and has since recovered, so I’ve had both a great and awesome life and one that went to Sh*t as well : - ). We’ve all been up and down and that is just the way life rolls for many, if not most, of us. My goal, living a very low key life has been to take a reasonable risk, get back to $20k, use the nasty and complex formulas I learned from a doctorate in Asia and make enough from that to get back into business. That’s the path I choose, and as I do not want any more partners in a ‘real’ business. I trusted one and got burned, so I am enjoying my low-key time off, doing no-brainer work, and just getting by, while also holding out hope I’ll find a way back as per above. I made 7x more than my Uni education cost back when I was on a team, playing or fun, so I’ve been there (decades ago) and know it can be done. I’ve also encountered (in real life) and read about other professionals that have ‘made it’ in gambling. The doctor who taught me the formula I use for ‘paper playing’ a very large bankroll makes his money from Craps, but he only started doing that after he retired. The guy I posted a link about, is closing in on and maybe past the one billion dollar mark playing the ponies so to speak, and I’ve met more than one sports better who solely make their living from gambling (oh, and one poker player)… so while I am not betting my life on or going to freak out if I lose a $6k BR, I will try very hard to look at every suggested option for playing the $6k that I have managed to save up.

Your suggestions have been very helpful… so thank you… I’ll run them through my data. I actually have three years’ worth of BJ decisions that an ex-GF kept back from the 80s when the casinos allowed her to record the hands and decisions (the way you would in Bac). She just played for fun and collected the data. Don’t know if the casinos would even allow that anymore on a BJ table.

Also, I haven’t coded for decades, but at some point if I ever choose to run a script versus play actual hands (or using sim data), I may do that… but I’ll have to get current on coding, not that it would be too difficult.

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For OnceDear (if you are there)
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I am guessing that the formula you (OnceDear) presented still holds true that to double the bankroll, there is a 50% risk (regardless of ‘how’ this is attempted).

The question would be, if I do double the BR at a risk of 50% in doing so, and then start a totally different series of events, does the risk then carry through to the second series and reset back to 50%, or if I try to go from $12,000 ($6,000 original BR + $6000 won), and when trying to double this again, the risk of this is 50% (or in actuality, it’s 75% rolling forward from the original calculation)…I am guessing it’s the latter at a 75% risk.

i.e.,

$6000 / ($6,000 + $6,000) is a 50% chance to make this happen (i.e., double the BR from $6,000 to $12,000), but $6000 / ($6,000 + $18,000 [$6,000 original BR+ $12,000 [2nd win/attempt to double up again]]) only has a 25% chance of occurring…. Which is the same as saying 50% times 50% is a 25% chance of winning. Anyway, I got lazy typing that up, so it probably doesn’t make sense, but I am guessing OnceDear would argue that no matter how I go about trying to quadruple a $6,000 BR, the odds are only 25% in my favor.

Thanks CC and and forum. Love the ideas. Happy to look into anything anyone suggests.

Quote: SiegfriedRoy

I have a friend who is very unorthodox with his gambling, but I say he has a very similar view and play as you previously mentioned. Ever since college, when we used to come to Vegas, he saw gambling as an opportunity to double his money or lose it all. He just didn’t see the entertainment of playing for hours. He used to bet his whole bankroll around $300 at that time and bet it all in one hand of bacarrat. Win or lose he didn’t play the rest of the trip, and he just sat back at the tables with us and drank for free when the cocktail waitresses came around. We’re in our late 30s now, and he still does the same crap but he bets $5000 on one hand in the beginning of the trip. Whether he wins or not, he’s still very disciplined and will not play for the rest of the trip. If he loses, he just sits back with us and drinks for free. Pits and other player don’t like him because he comes in with $5K and take a few moment to change into chips and just plays one hand. Dealers don’t like him because when he does win, he doesn’t tip. He’s an odd fella, but his logic is that he’s not a AP, so the longer he plays, he will eventually be beaten by the HE and will likely lose all of his money by the end of the trip. If he takes a chance on a short-term near coin-flip, he has a chance of winning. I get his point of view, but he just doesn’t see it as much of an entertainment.

How big is the wheelbarrow he uses to cart his testicles out of the casino...?

In Blackjack I used to be more of a win 3 sessions, and play 2 at a higher buy-in. Example: If my buy-in is $200 ($10 Table Minimum), I'll win that 3 times and be up $600 then divvy that up into two $300 buy-in sessions ($15 Table Minimum). If I win three $300 sessions, I can divvy that $900 into two $450 sessions ($25 Table Minimum). My sessions were (-13, +7) not counting what I lost going over different bet boundaries. So a quick 7 wins and I'd double my buy-in, but if it drags on it gets harder to reach a win goal. If I lose 13 bets, I'll just buy-in again for another chance to win 7 hands to get my money back instead of having to win from -13 to 0.

Would one session be something like this…

$200 buy-in with $10 per bet (assuming that’s what the $10 Table Minimum means - $10 bet), but if yes, are you saying that you have to win 60 bets at $10 to get to a $600 total win,
-or-
Are you saying play the whole $200 and try to win 3 bets for a total win of $600?

Sorry for the confusion, just not sure if either of the above is correct.

Do you have a sample of how the bets would look?

Bet one = $x and is a Win or Loss, then
Bet two = $x and is a Win or Loss, then
Bet three = $x and is a Win or Loss,
……
….till you get to a total win of $x (

I’m trying to follow how 13 lost bets and 7 wins gets to doubling the buy-in.

Thanks again for the concept, just having trouble following the steps.

I have a tiered betting strategy so I only have to win 21 bets ahead to win 3 sessions. But it can be absolutely confusing beyond that.

I would buy-in with six $12 bets ($72), five $16 bets ($80), and two $24 bets ($48). I'd try to win four $24 bets ($96), and three $36 bets ($108).

At a real table, I sometimes get hit with playing more than just single splits that a computer BJ game would provide, so I've decided to increase my bets every 5 units ahead.

If you are so sure your system can't lose then just borrow the money you need. Pay it back when you win.

Thanks for the follow up, but still a bit lost...

You mentioned that you only have to win 21 bets to win 3 sessions. What is defined as a session?

So if I hit a streak of 13 losses straight off, I would lose exactly 13 bets that were part of the buy-in?

Then I would buy-in again for the same amount (another $200).

Are you using a negative progression (up on a loss down on a win) or up only progression (win or lose move up)…

How would these plays look?

L L L L L L L L L L L L L (-12 -12-12-12-12-12—16-16-16-16-16— -24-24)? End session 1 and buy in again?

W (+12) L (-12) W(+12) L(12) W (+12) L (-12) W(+16) L(-16) W(+16) L(-16) W (+16) L (-24) W (+24) L (-24) W(+24) L (-36) W (+36)?

Or
L (-12) L (-12) L (-12) L (-12) L(-12) L(-12) W(+16) W(+16) W(+16) W(+16) L (-24) L (-24) L(-24)

Can you show any examples of how you play this progression?

Also are you increasing by $8 on each next progression starting after $16 and is each the largest bet capped at $36.

Sorry to be a pain, I am not sure of what the progression is.

Also, I assume whatever the progression is you end if it ever reaches -$200 or you end if you win $200?

Then once you win or lose $200 what comes next?

Hi vegas.... I'm not into borrowing money and taking on debt regardless of how sure I am. I've had debt before (not from gambling) and never going down the path of borrowing, or incurring debt even credit card debt. On the other hand, I would risk the $6k I have if I feel comfortable with the risk.

I may have missed this...

"At a real table, I sometimes get hit with playing more than just single splits that a computer BJ game would provide, so I've decided to increase my bets every 5 units ahead."

So would you always stay at one tier, unless you are ahead by $60 (5 x $12 units) but then you increase to $16 bets, then if you get up to $120 ahead, you'd increase to $24 bets, then if you get up to $180 you would increase to $36 bets for three more wins for a total of $180 + $108 profit?

Having trouble working out how the bets go based on losses and wins occurring.

Do you have a set of 50 or so actual bets played out (either for Craps or BJ) to illustrate how the progression works (negative or positive) and also when to buy-in at different levels? Are the buy-ins out of profit or negative progression type buy-ins where each buy-in is larger than the last if you lose one? Or, are the buy-ins are always the same amount over and over?

Quote: NewtoTown

Thanks for the follow up, but still a bit lost...

You mentioned that you only have to win 21 bets to win 3 sessions. What is defined as a session?

So if I hit a streak of 13 losses straight off, I would lose exactly 13 bets that were part of the buy-in?

Then I would buy-in again for the same amount (another $200).

Are you using a negative progression (up on a loss down on a win) or up only progression (win or lose move up)…

How would these plays look?

L L L L L L L L L L L L L (-12 -12-12-12-12-12—16-16-16-16-16— -24-24)? End session 1 and buy in again?

W (+12) L (-12) W(+12) L(12) W (+12) L (-12) W(+16) L(-16) W(+16) L(-16) W (+16) L (-24) W (+24) L (-24) W(+24) L (-36) W (+36)?

Or
L (-12) L (-12) L (-12) L (-12) L(-12) L(-12) W(+16) W(+16) W(+16) W(+16) L (-24) L (-24) L(-24)

Can you show any examples of how you play this progression?

It's backwards: My first bet is $24. If I lose my first 2 bets, I lower my bet to $16, If I lose another 5 bets, I lower my bet to $12. If I lose 6 more bets I buy-in for another $200 and start a first bet at $24. If I win 4 bets at $24, I raise my bet to $36 and win 3 of those. I raise and lower my bets based on specific balances of chips, but I'm not likely to double down for less. I'm not doing any progression based on wins in a row or trying to do a Martingale of sessions.

Quote: NewtoTown

I may have missed this...

"At a real table, I sometimes get hit with playing more than just single splits that a computer BJ game would provide, so I've decided to increase my bets every 5 units ahead."

So would you always stay at one tier, unless you are ahead by $60 (5 x $12 units) but then you increase to $16 bets, then if you get up to $120 ahead, you'd increase to $24 bets, then if you get up to $180 you would increase to $36 bets for three more wins for a total of $180 + $108 profit?

Having trouble working out how the bets go based on losses and wins occurring.

Say I buy-in for ten $12 bets, I'll raise my bet to $18 when I win to $60 ahead. When I win five $18 bets ahead, I'll raise my bet to $24.
When I say I buy-in for $400 with 25 hands, I really mean $10 over the $390 level so my first bet would be $36.

Bet ..... Balance
$12......... $120
$18...... ≥$180
$24...... ≥$270
$36...... ≥$390
$48...... ≥$570
$60...... ≥$810
$90...... ≥$1110
$120.... ≥$1560
$180.... ≥$2160
$240.... ≥$3060
End...... ≥$4260

Thank you very much CC.

Is this for Craps? BJ? Or either?

I think I have it now… just a few things to recap to see if I have the flow down and then a couple of questions at the bottom:

Does this sound like I have the flow correct?
• $12 bet level......... $120 buy-in. Win 5 bets then progress to $18 bet level; *lose* all ten $12 bets and re-buy-in again for another $120 to reattempt the positive progression.

Progression looks like this if winning:

1. $12x5 = $60 = $180 (divide this into 10 units of $18)

2. Next is $18x5 wins = $90 = $270 balance (divide this into 10 units of $24) If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $30.

3. Next is $24x5 wins = $120 = $390 balance (divide this into 10 units of $36). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $30.

4. Next is $36x5 wins = $180 = $570 balance (divide this into 10 units of $48). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $90.

5. Next is $48x5 wins = $240 = $810 balance (divide this into 10 units of $60). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $210.

6. Next is $60x5 wins = $300 = $1110 balance (divide this into 10 units of $90). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $210.

7. Next is $90x5 wins = $450 = $1560 balance (divide this into 10 units of $120). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $360.

8. Next is $120x5 wins = $600 = $2160 balance (divide this into 10 units of $180). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $360.

9. Next is $180x5 wins = $900 = $3060 balance (divide this into 10 units of $240). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $660.

10. Win $240x5 = $1200 bringing the end balance to $4260.


Did I get the above right?

You previously mentioned: “I'd probably stick to near 400 hand sessions and either lose 25 hands or win 20 hands and quadruple my buy-in.”

Using the above progression and winning 20 hands would yield 4.75 x the original buy-in, correct?

• $12x5 = $60 = $180 (divide this into 10 units of $18)

• Next is $18x5 wins = $90 = $270 balance (divide this into 10 units of $24) If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $30.

• Next is $24x5 wins = $120 = $390 balance (divide this into 10 units of $36). If you lose all ten bets at this level you still won $30.

• Next is $36x5 wins = $180 = $570 balance (which is 4.75 x the $120 original buy-in, if you include the buy-in or 3.75x the original buy-in if you exclude the original buy-in… assuming you are rounding up the 3.75x and calling it quadrupling the buy-in after winning 20 hands).

Did I get that correct?

Also, if get to 400 hand sessions/decisions and have *not* lost 25 hands *nor* won 20 hands, what would you do?

Also, you previously you mentioned:

“My sessions were (-13, +7) not counting what I lost going over different bet boundaries. So a quick 7 wins and I'd double my buy-in, but if it drags on it gets harder to reach a win goal. If I lose 13 bets, I'll just buy-in again for another chance to win 7 hands to get my money back instead of having to win from -13 to 0.”

Question:
How is the buy-in doubled after 7 wins?

I may be confusing more than one system you previously referred to and the above was related to a different topic/system.

Anyway, I think I almost have enough info to test this.

How many $120 buy-ins would you lose before raising the buy-in amount to try and catch up more quickly? Or, would you never raise the $120 buy-in level and *only* use the above-referenced positive progression?

Also, what are the odds of reaching the highest level bringing the balance to $4260?

I am guessing this would have to be calculated based on being ahead by 50 more bets at any given time (i.e., winning 5 more bets per level for a total of ten tiers to reach the $4260 balance achieved).

Thanks again CC for all the clarifications and input.

Just saw this reply:

"If I win 4 bets at $24, I raise my bet to $36 and win 3 of those. "

I think this is where you mentioned that if you won just 7 bets you would have doubled your buy-in.

No, I was not dividing each level into 10 bets.
I could start with 10 bets, 15 bets, 20 bets, or 25 bets (at the different levels).
My daily win goals would probably be "up 2 levels" on the PL or "up 4 levels" in BJ or Baccarat.

Interesting thread. I agree with you analogies on new knowledge. I have a few questions.
What are you trying to achieve ?
Are you more interested in a particular game ( you mention craps) or a winning "system" for any game?
What's most important to you among 1. winning money or 2. developing a winning system or both ; or 3. some other reason.
Also, you said you would risk the 6k "if" you felt comfortable with the risk. Why do you feel uncomfortable? What would make you more comfortable, 1. Larger bankroll 2. lower minimum bet that 6k would cover?
Say you use $1 min. bet with $6k bankroll , would your system prevail in its current state. I think ( Wizard says ) it needs to survive the representative number of hands in 3 SDs . If you think you have enough data to support that you could possibly collect $30K from the betting system challenge, but you're selling out your knowledge for $30k.
I think The Wizard himself mentioned $50 mil. and retirement is appropriate for a winning system in a long ago post . After all baccarat alone generates north of $24 B annually according to some reports. There's much at play here. Bottom line, once you reveal your knowledge to the public ( example : MIT CC BJ teams) you've killed the game for everyone else.

…………………………………………………………………..
“Interesting thread. I agree with your analogies on new knowledge. I have a few questions.”
…………………………………………………………………..


Thank you, and happy to answer your questions (sorry if the reply is more than a tad long and at times off topic).

I’m a glass half full kind of person, but a realist, and a big fan of the scientific method, mathematical logic and the like.

Back before I had a business partner run off with all my company’s money, we were consistently involved in cutting-edge innovation, often which people said ‘was impossible” and on multiple occasions we beat the odds to invent what people said could not be done, not to mention I’ve seen it done time and time again in medicine, more than once in physics and even twice in gambling.


…………………………………………………………………..
“What are you trying to achieve ?”
…………………………………………………………………..

A) In the end, creating a cash flow generator to fuel a philanthropic pathway (also very innovative) for helping solve some interesting societal dilemmas… but short term : - ) here goes…

B) Right now… seeking a way to turn $6k into $20k

C) Why $20k…because that will be the last BR I ever need based on what I am testing now; $20k is the minimum BR with which I have been able to achieve optimal results regarding ROI/staying within house limits, safety etc.

I would have never believed someone could ('algorithmically', so to speak) beat the horse racing venues, but as per the link/post, it was done. I hung with that crowd years ago (in fact, left a prestigious school in Pasadena), and ‘counted’ back at the same time as Bill Benter and Alan Woods [giving away my age : - ) ]

D) I would at this time like to find any game to play my $6k on and multiply that BR [other than via BJ (if dependent on card counting), which is (in my opinion) not the same playing field as it once was due to FR, analysis algos/radio chips etc.]

In short, I am open to ideas how to, as safely as possible, double one’s bankroll (using a smaller bankroll (on any game)).

I am ‘good’ once I get to a higher level bankroll, as I am (using a $20k BR) winning consistently in testing (especially factoring in the statistical relevance of the quality, type, size and number of databases I have been through thus far). I estimate I still have a half a year’s worth of testing to do in order to be absolutely certain I have cracked a formula that allows me to use a $20k BR / stay within the house limits etc., and never give back the BR while continuing to multiply the BR. I thought about getting current with coding again and rip the layered complex algos through billions of sims, but it is seriously complex (which has some practical limitations in real-time play, but I can overcome those when the time comes).

Back to your question…

…………………………………………………………………..
“Are you more interested in a particular game ( you mention craps) or a winning "system" for any game?
…………………………………………………………………..

The latter.

Any game is fine, but my limitation at the moment is my tiny BR ($6k).

On a side note: I have chosen to take some time off and live low key life, so putting in a lot of time to ‘this project” versus getting out there to earn money. I will eventually go back into business (as I have a friend coding a new tech project for me [he’s much more current at coding than I am, so I only did the software architecture].

Goal 1:
Even if I do (a) multiply my small bankroll of $6k (playing any game) to a large enough level where I can get to a $20k BR, I would likely play my “system” (I dislike that word) for some time to generate cash and reap the rewards from the massive time investment that was put into it. I have some ideas thereafter, to turn “my algos’ into a larger scale business the way Bill Benter did with his algos. Having said that, I am also developing a technology based business on the side, so I will ultimately go that direction when I return to the real world ; -).

…………………………………………………………………..
What's most important to you among 1. winning money or 2. developing a winning system or both ; or 3. some other reason.
…………………………………………………………………..

I think I addressed this question above, but to be more concise (actually 1, 2 AND 3):

(1)
Short term goal is to increase my small $6k BR (if I find a way that I feel it can be done within parameters that are acceptable to me). I could state those and have someone on this board ‘rip me a new one’ because there are many on this board who feel beating a negative expectation game cannot be done, yet I have known more than one highly successful professional gambler in my day, across more than one discipline of gambling who earns consistent cash flow from gambling with no other current source of active income.

(2)
While I cannot state, as per above, with absolutely certainly (because I need more time) that I have in fact achieved my goal of beating a negative expectation game, using a $20k BR, I am continuing to plough through multiple databases and quite pleased with the results. Even if I gave back a dozen BRs at this point, I’d be well ahead (*IF* you include the simulated DBs I have completed). Like anyone who thinks they have something that was previously undiscovered, you have (for a very long time) that feeling that it is ‘too good to be true’… I am the first one to admit that. But every day I get closer to thinking… ***just maybe*** I have it. Once if have multiplied my $20k 100x or 200x without dropping a single BR or only a few BRs, I will conclude that whether or not this constitutes ‘reversing the edge in a negative expectation game’ that is no longer the most relevant thing… I will have something I can use in more than one way for positive gain.

(3)
Since I was age 5-7ish, I’ve loved ‘impossible’ challenges, setting records, innovating and the like… so ‘the challenge is’ and ‘the journey is’ as exciting to me as the destination. You don’t typically innovate without some level of risk, but one also has to have risk mitigation strategies in the back of one’s mind, because it’s the prudent way to innovate. One also has to be thick skinned enough to accept the ridicule (and sometimes worse) that comes from people (gamblers, peers, mathematicians) who are often rightfully so “skeptical” or “positive” that whatever the goal being attempted is, can’t be achieved… and I’ve been involved in enough ‘ultra’ complex projects in my day that my skin is pretty thick : -)

…………………………………………………………………..
Also, you said you would risk the 6k "if" you felt comfortable with the risk. Why do you feel uncomfortable? What would make you more comfortable, 1. Larger bankroll 2. lower minimum bet that 6k would cover?
…………………………………………………………………..

I do not have any methodology at present that will work using a $6k BR (while meeting all other parameters, including ROI), therefore, the risks would be greater than I would accept at present.

Yes, a larger BR makes all the difference for the reasons stated (but elaborated on below). I would not want to find and hang around on tables using a $1 base unit wager.

Multi-part answer below:
I have never been able to scale down what I am currently testing extensively at a $20k BR (and also achieve an acceptable hourly return rate etc.). The premise upon which my algos are based came from a theorem I had back when I was at Uni.

On a side note: I was originally going to pose my theorem as the basis for a PhD (in essence “using stacked algos fed by real time input to overcome a negative expectation ‘game’). My whole ‘living’ family all have doctorates, so when I left school to pursue card counting, I was the disappointment of the family to say the least. I did, however, go on to some significant success (in card counting and business and other ventures), and got burned in an equally spectacular way in business (by a partner), yet at least in my mind, I can live with the decisions I’ve made in life.

In my global journey’s I met a guy in Asia who was using a “very” 'dumbed down' version of my old theorem (and he uses a substantially larger BR than $20k) but he has won consistently with ‘zero losses’ (in real life/the casinos) for some time now. Gambling has been his avocation after he retired from medicine. I tested out what he was ‘personally’ doing, and just as I recollect, it would be very difficult for the casinos to stop him (short of few counter measures they could take, which I would not get into on an open forum)… Most people do not have ‘this guys’ level of capital, so the casinos are not really exposed. In any event, having met this gentleman once in Malaysia, then again in Singapore, it really gave me the inspiration to dust of my old theorem and ‘go at it’ full time to get the BR requirements as low as possible.

I did create/modify one version of my algo that wins flat betting against Craps over the 500,000 decisions I randomly tested (but to make decent money the base unit would have to be larger than I would like). I abandoned this pathway and went to using a spread, which proved far more challenging that winning by flat betting, but I think I am now there with the right balance of a $20k BR and hourly win rate and staying ‘well under’ the house limits. I am, however, still seeking to increase the hourly win rate 'a bit' when measured against total wagers made.

…………………………………………………………………..
Say you use $1 min. bet with $6k bankroll , would your system prevail in its current state. I think ( Wizard says ) it needs to survive the representative number of hands in 3 SDs . If you think you have enough data to support that you could possibly collect $30K from the betting system challenge, but you're selling out your knowledge for $30k.
…………………………………………………………………..

Yes and yes and no : -)

Yes I could scale down, but have stated reasons why I would not want to (mostly pragmatic reasons) and no way am I trading knowledge for $30k, as you guessed : - )

Random, but related to the topic:
I would like to stick with $10 min. to $25 unit tables, not $1 or $5 tables.

I came to LV to be able to get that ($10 to $25 tables) fairly easily. I also initially came here to access to UNLV library which has always had an interesting collection of papers on ‘related’ topics. Regarding selling out the knowledge, I am definitely not going down that route… I saw firsthand the problems Bill Benter encountered with Alan Woods taking his knowledge and competing with him, then it got worse from there. Bill did OK from what I understand (and so did Alan before he passed).

While humbly continuing away at testing my algos (on paper) using a $20k BR, I am always open to ideas as to whether anyone else out there has been successful using a $6BR. If yes, and if I felt comfortable, I’d give it a go, and play with $6k. Thus far, I have not achieved that level of comfort yet using any of the suggestions or variants of suggestions. I did however get one interesting idea from one party here in NV and now spending 5 -7 hours a day on it to see if I can get it to perform satisfactorily with a $6k BR against my DBs. If it does half way decent (by an internal standard I have set), I’ll go for it and try to scale the $6k to $20k (albeit with some risk because it will still be gambling).

Once I get to employ my $20k algos for real, I do have a way to scale an operation to a much larger level in a similar manner to the way Bill was able to with horseracing, so yes, I am being careful not to sell out.

…………………………………………………………………..

I think The Wizard himself mentioned $50 mil. and retirement is appropriate for a winning system in a long ago post . After all baccarat alone generates north of $24 B annually according to some reports. There's much at play here. Bottom line, once you reveal your knowledge to the public ( example : MIT CC BJ teams) you've killed the game for everyone else.
…………………………………………………………………..

Well aware of that and thank you for emphasizing it, as I have given as much thought about “how to scale” the knowledge *without* exposure. I have (although putting the cart before the horse) given as much thought to scaling as I have to employing the knowledge on a one-on-one basis. I do feel comfortable with ‘how’ to do that (i.e., scale without letting the genie out of the bottle / opening Pandora ’s Box). Today’s technology makes many things possible that once were not!

Sorry for the long reply, and at times wondering ‘off topic’.

Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Very interesting and I agree 100% with your thoughts on innovation and discovery. Who would have ever believed "back in the day" that Dick Tracy could really face chat communicate on a "two way wrist radio". Or BJ could be beaten by CC )
FWIW I want to assure you that it is possible to scale your 6K to 20k and beyond with increasing bankroll over time through many SD's consistently. (-EV can be beaten long term)
I appreciate your candor in answering my questions and I wish you the best in your quest. It's very simple and mathematically sound once you find it and learn how to apply it.
I like your unselfish philanthropic purpose/intent as well and I think that partly for that reason , what you're looking for will be revealed to you sooner than later,
Oh yeah, thick skin is a must here !

Thanks cwwbjr. Appreciate all the feedback and kind words.

I haven't put as much time into the use of a smaller BR as I have with the $20k BR, but slowly getting around to it.

I have faith I'll crack it (use of a small BR) in time and having fun trying in the meantime! Actually back to work on it now (having taken a break to watch the SOTU).

Thanks again.

Quote: NewtoTown

<snip>Yes I could scale down, but have stated reasons why I would not want to (mostly pragmatic reasons) and no way am I trading knowledge for $30k, as you guessed : - )<snip>

NewtoTown,

Perhaps I missed the point while wading through your PhD thesis from which the above quote was abstracted, but why can't you trade the secret for $30K, then use that money with your system yourself? Does your system require that only a single practitioner employ it at any given time?

Here's another fund raising idea for you: if your system succeeds, casinos will be forced out of business left and right, so why not lobby the "anti-gambling" crowd? I'd bet (ha ha) many such organizations would be willing to spend $20K to "scourge the planet* of the evils of gambling".

*or at least their own little corner of the planet ;-)

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Fun with maths

Quote: NewtoTown

I'd partner with someone in a second if they wanted to split the profits 50/50.
...
If only I could find a partner who had the extra cash, which I do not have, I would head to the strip today with them. I only have $6k to contribute.

LMAO, You do realise that NewtoWin is proposing a marvellously +EV enterprise? +EV for himself, even if the game wagered on had a nil or massive house edge?

Example:-
Lets consider the maths if NTT's system is as simple as a straight one-off bet of the entire bankroll on US rules roulette RED.
Let's make that bet normal rules which returns 2* stake for a win or 0 for a lose . with 18/38 win probability. I.e. a wager with house advantage of 5.26%

So. NTT contributes $6,000
His partner, Muggins, contributes $14,000
Total bankroll = $20,000

The wager is placed and wins: I.e $20,000 is staked on RED. Red wins and $40,000 gets returned to the bankroll.
The profit is $20,000 which is split 50:50. I.e NTT's profit is $10,000 and Muggins' profit is $10,000. House loses $20,000
OR
The wager is placed and loses: I.e $20,000 staked on RED and $0 gets returned to the bankroll. It's a bust!
The loss to NTT is $6,000 and the loss to Muggins is $14,000. House wins $20,000

Since those probabilities are in proportion 18:20
... the average profit to NTT is (10,000)x18/38 -(6,000)*20/38 = $1,578
... the average profit to Muggins is (10,000)x18/38 -(14,000)*20/38= -$2,631
... the average profit to the house is (20,000)x20/38 -(20,000)*18/38 = $1052

Yeah, going 50:50 partnership where NTT only puts up 6,000/20,000= 30% of the bankroll for 50% of the profit is a doozy of an enterprise. LOL

E&OE

Quote:

I'd partner with someone in a second if they wanted to split the profits 50/50

I'd suspend anyone for making a proposal like that myself. It really, normally, is a pure case of looking for a "mark" . In the case of the OP, he is playing naive in a way which makes it seem an innocent thing, but on the other hand he is fairly articulate, which makes me suspicious.

He offers you unlimited opportunity for less then the cost of a used Neon and is met with disparaging remarks.

I did reply to the answer re "why" I wouldn't trade for $30k, but then again, who would? It's not an equitable trade. I do not think I am going to need it in any event, because among all the discussions going on, some kindhearted soul here in LV got me onto a slightly different/modified thought process, and think I am on to solving my dilemma anyway.

I do not think casinos are evil, and I do have a respectable plan to move forward, but getting into that on an open forum would be far from appropriate. On the topic of casinos, whether they are evil or not (your comment not mine, although I gather you say it 'tongue in cheek')... at least for now, a lot of people are employed by the casinos and I can't imagine anyone ever wanting to put X number of people out of work. We already have AI/robotics etc... causing a lot of people to retool their skill sets just to survive. I get it, times change and people must as well, but my only goals are to make enough to launch a particularly important philanthropy effort. Nothing less, nothing more. I also have given as much thought as to how *not* to let the 'genie out of the bottle', because I have been on some very talented teams and watched greed from the inside run rampant. I won't be making the same mistakes Bill did in trusting Alan, or even the same mistakes the team (from that other engineering Uni) did. I also have carefully followed how a number of people have successfully crossed over into the largest casino of all... the global markets, and one in particular achieved a net worth north of $15b. He, like Bill Benter, are now philanthropist... so if one day I am 'one day' blessed to follow in their footsteps, I'd be humbled to have the same opportunity to do so.

I think you have a typo... "he who offers" but you can edit that and I got the gist of what you say... and I do get that and don't for a second dispute the logic in that or the fact we live in a world where no matter what opinion or other tidbit you share, you *will* get trolled forever and always... the internet has empowered us all (may, maybe not all) to behave a certain way.

I am not offering any opportunity per se, just engaging in chat, and I received two forms of inspiration on this forum that have led me down the path I sought. Sometimes taking a break and engaging in thought-stimulating activity gets one past a sticking point and I think I have solved my own conundrum, in part, due to engaging on this respected forum.

Regarding 'disparaging remarks', I addressed that previously... and I'm a supporter of free speech as long as it is not hate speech or speech designed to cause harm. Totally OK with the light banter on this forum and love it. Anyone who delves, at any time, into bucking the odds, whether in medicine, physics, math or anything can expect it (disparaging remarks / being trolled). To that I say, if you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. One only has to watch the current political arena to 'understand' that concept... but yes, I get it and as always, appreciate all replies.

I can't tell whether this reply is before or after my other posts where I have stated I am not seeking anything, thanks due in part, to two helpful people from this very forum. I still have a bit of testing to go through, but alas, as per the words of one person on this forum, I have been able to reduce my BR to $6k, and still have a decent ROI. This person was confident that if what I was doing worked at $20k that I would be able to do something similar at $6k, and it sparked an idea/pathway that I had overlooked/chosen not to pursue.

You asked me in a private chat just now OD if I would ever sell the system, and I am not looking for that, nor looking to break any casino or anything of the sort.

I'm pretty sure this forum, especially the category called systems... was the right place to post and in doing so two people on this forum have helped me greatly, not to mention I derived benefit in refreshing my memory as to the content on a page you sent me a link to. I thanked for that link OD.

My 'system' or whatever you want to call it is not for sale (now or likely ever), created for one purpose only (other than the sheer fun of doing something that people say can't be achieved).

OD... thanks for the comment, but you are absolutely assuming I am going to lose money. If I were in a rush, I would in fact do just that. I have never been in a rush, taking great care to test what I have been working on and made a quantum leap "again" because of input from this forum, that got me to modify ever so slightly, but enough, that I have gained the insight I need to soon take the next step. I owe those two people a debt of gratitude, if things keep proceeding as planned and will in time thank them properly after additional testing, and after I go live, since that is the only test that will matter in the end.

Assuming my modifications (which I made per one recent post here that inspired me to try to lower my BR amount from $20k to $6k, actually this person was confident that was possible and turns out he/she was right). I toyed around with it using an idea someone else on this forum gave me, and while I have a fair way to go, I have multiplied my BR 13x (yeah, yeah, on paper) with no losses and using a $6k BR. If I get to a point where this repeats 'X' number of times, I will in fact be chancing it, and going live.

Thanks for the comments, they keep me motivated (and somehow if you don't remember the link you posted OD... it was very helpful, as although a pretty basic formula, in reviewing it, it was one of three things that helped me, and I did thank you for that).

You were right cwwbjr. Your message reminded me of a cute show on TV (God Friended Me). It's a show about a guy who does not believe in God but who receives these odd messages that always lead him down a successful path, ultimately allowing him to help others.

I thought about this reply "FWIW I want to assure you that it is possible to scale your 6K to 20k and beyond with increasing bankroll over time through many SD's consistently. (-EV can be beaten long term)" and this comment " *and* this one "I like your unselfish philanthropic purpose/intent as well and I think that partly for that reason , what you're looking for will be revealed to you sooner than later,"...

While thinking about your reply over and over again, I went to sleep but could not get those two comments out of my head, so in the wee hours I woke up with an idea how to reduce the $20k BR... I had been mulling this over, off and on again, for a while, but as this time the idea I woke up with got pretty far along (still a lot of testing to do) and with an hourly return that I can live with at a $6k BR. Back in my counting days I would have never thought this possible with such a small BR, but you, not I, was correct. Shockingly, the last comment I referenced really got me thinking, it's not that it would be now or never, but I the 'sooner than later' comment is why I acted on what I was thinking about all night and actually got up and tested it... it felt right and so far I think I have resolved my $6k BR issue.

I was going to thank you (and one other party) later, but I will say an initial thanks for now. After you posted, it gave me the second of two missing things (and a push) to try to find a way to use the $6k versus $20k. I changed the rate per hour I was seeking to average (i.e., I changed my expectation for the ROI) and modified one other variable to make that possible, without having to lower my minimum bets, which I do not wish to do. It is way too early to know 'fore sure', but just getting started I have multiplied my BR just over a dozen times (no losses) using real data not sim data, so that's a propitious start.

Thanks cwwbjr, and I will in the days ahead thank the other party who very directly got me thinking about a secondary more effective pathway to solve the problem I was having.

I do not actually want a partner, having been burned by one in the past (though not on a gambling venture, and if I ever find the early on post in Q, would remove it. I have been seeking advice how to play a $6k BR most effectively.

Greetings Newtotown I hope you're making progress. Could you please give an update on results of your testing so far. . I know you wanted to grow the 6k to your desired amount of 20K and I wanted to assure you that you can. Starting slowly at first ( like priming a pump) on a slightly inclined ramp from shoe to shoe or ( $ goal to $ goal) until you reach that desired bankroll level where you should be able increase min. bet size and table limit to a certain point limited by "your " Play-Way's variance. I am of the opinion from my experience that 100/20k min-max table limit should be all you ever need to do quite well.....once you reach your BR goal. Hope you have good news.

Quote: NewtoTown

You asked me in a private chat just now OD if I would ever sell the system

Face palm*

I certainly won't be hiring him for any undercover assignments, anytime soon.

Quote: AxelWolf

Face palm*

I certainly won't be hiring him for any undercover assignments, anytime soon.

LOL. I had private chat with the guy. I forgive him for paraphrasing what was discussed in PM a few months ago.
$;o)

Quote: OnceDear

I had private chat with the guy.

.....

Hi CWWBJR,

All is well and I was in the casinos right up till the last day before they closed.

Excited as heck to get back in there.

I learned a few very interesting things in the many hours I was live before the casinos closed, and I've been incorporating that into what I do now. In short, there was something I detected on certain occasions that seemed to be related to a non-random variable I had not factored in (but can't get into that on an open forum). Once compensating for this, my hourly earn rate I believe will now be higher per size of the bankroll.

Newtotown

Hi OD,

If you mean me, apologies.

Quote: NewtoTown

Hi OD,

If you mean me, apologies.

No Worries. Foxy is just yanking my chain.
Good luck exploiting your perceived 'non-random' situation.

Greetings Newtotown.

Glad to get the update and the input on your ongoing quest. From your own words I glean that you are on the right track and I encourage you to stay on task and you will achieve your goal.
If I might offer a suggestion from the wise Wizard himself that has helped me tremendously (for free) ......Thank you Mike!, You may want to try the 250K baccarat shoes on the Wizard of odds website to test your play-way before going live $ risk. If you can't beat it there why waste time and money in a casino? It's not the money but the victory!
You should be able to visually scan any shoe using your play-way in less than a minute to verify/ confirm your suspected non-random variables. ( Obvious , I know )
Also, get set up to practice/test dealing yourself live with set bankroll and I'm thinking you already do that as well. Then , when you feel comfortable that your BR and Play-way can overcome the variance....voila!
Since my post on Feb. 4th , I was curious to know if in fact it was realistically plausible to repeatedly turn a 6K BR into 20K with one shot/ one bite at the apple/ one bankroll!
My finding " so far " are as follows.
Terms of play
Start with $6000 BR
Goal is to reach $ 20K before losing $6000 BR
$ 1000 min. initial buy in.
Start at Table min. bet $25 max. bet $5000
Play "SETS" until you bust out or reach a pre -specified $ goal. My set goal was 250K/set (which was all the chips I had)
A "SET" is defined as the number of shoes required to reach your goal or bust.
Multiple Re-buy-ins of $1000 per set allowed until goal reached or bust.

To date from Feb,4 (2 months) 10 sets completed. Lots of red and blue circles. 2 bic ballpoint pens nearly emptied.
All sets have been less than 30 shoes mostly averaging around 20+/- shoes/set ....... irrelevant.
Two single re-buy-ins @ $1000 were required. Once in each of two different shoes in different sets. No shoe required more than one re-buy.
Minimum Average win per shoe...15+ units, some many more than that.
All 10 set were successful in reaching goal .
$6000 BR never jeopardized.

Currently playing 11th shoe of 11th set about halfway through at 23k+. Yes, there is an inclined ramp involved.
I use a different win rate sort of which is shoe to shoe rather than hourly realizing that my games are super fast wherein average live play could be equal to hourly.

These results "so-far" could take a turn for the worse at any time for MY play-way but for you the 20k BR that would fuel your play-way would have been achieved 10x.
I hope this is encouraging to you and helps you in your quest knowing the possibilities.
I like your analogous thinking and examples of impossible concepts made reality.
Keep up the good work. Best!

I'll PM you at some point in the future. I'm testing it as best as possible from home, but need one more month on it when the casinos open. One good thing is my BR is larger now (even though I only had a *relatively* short period of time in the casinos prior to shut down), so I'm pleased, but also bummed the world has had to shut down. What are the odds (no pun intended) to get so far with all this and then zap... only to get shut down! Never thought I'd see this in my lifetime, but having said that, pandemics were in the cards and more to come in years ahead.

Hope you are well, as it looks like UK is not in good shape either. Things are not good here (in some areas pretty bad), and not meaning 'deaths' due to CV, but rather how the loss of civil rights are going right out the window. Take care and all the best!

Thank you cwwbjr. I meant to thank you before for all your words of encouragement.

I'll private message you in the future regarding what you wrote above.

Hit and Run.... its the only way! Ive taken 5k to over 50k on many occasions. In and out with tremendous discipline and management!

Quote: WatchMeWin

Hit and Run.... its the only way! Ive taken 5k to over 50k on many occasions. In and out with tremendous discipline and management!

I think you're right about Hit and Run. Because it's simple when a player joins a game with a minimum entry and then leaves after winning a pot. It's one of the best systems

Quote: MonkeyWithpain

I think you're right about Hit and Run. Because it's simple when a player joins a game with a minimum entry and then leaves after winning a pot. It's one of the best systems

Better than quitting while ahead?