SportsBettingNEVERlooses
Quote: TDVegas
Who knows....maybe there are a bunch of losing tickets as well.
So, the new theory is...what, exactly? That he bought a bunch of futures tickets at the Golden Nugget specifically in anticipation of this conversation taking place at a forum where he rarely posts in case this precise conversation would happen?
I don’t think he’s here to tout (sell), he knows he’s not allowed to do that here.
Edit: Just to be clear, the only thing I’m saying is that I don’t think he made futures bets specifically for the purpose of being able to prove he made a futures bet at a particular location.
Quote: Mission146So, the new theory is...what, exactly? That he bought a bunch of futures tickets at the Golden Nugget specifically in anticipation of this conversation taking place at a forum where he rarely posts in case this precise conversation would happen?
I don’t think he’s here to tout (sell), he knows he’s not allowed to do that here.
Edit: Just to be clear, the only thing I’m saying is that I don’t think he made futures bets specifically for the purpose of being able to prove he made a futures bet at a particular location.
How did he fare in the NFL pick contest you set up here?
I’m not suggesting he’s not holding a winning ticket. I’m suggesting it means nothing as it relates to his overall picking prowess as a handicapper.
Floyd Mayweather used to show his $700,000 winning football tickets. What does it mean?
Quote: TDVegasHow did he fare in the NFL pick contest you set up here?
He didn’t play in it. I’ll tell you this, though, my lifetime record over quite a few years has me beating the vig...and I wouldn’t put money on my picks. I think seven years.
Quote: Mission146He didn’t play in it.
Hmmm....I didn’t think so.
Quote: Mission146I’ll tell you this, though, my lifetime record over quite a few years has me beating the vig...and I wouldn’t put money on my picks. I think seven years.
Congrats on your picks. You should wager on them.
Quote: TDVegas
Congrats on your picks. You should wager on them.
Sample size isn’t significant enough to believe that I’m particularly skilled. Could just be on the right side of the bell curve. Thank you for the congrats! It’s fun to have a good record.
Quote: Mission146Sample size isn’t significant enough to believe that I’m particularly skilled. Could just be on the right side of the bell curve. Thank you for the congrats! It’s fun to have a good record.
7 years isn’t enough of a sample? It’s about 5 years more than the paid handicappers use.
52.38% is break even. Where are you after 7 years?
I took exactly what I said I took. You think I'm proud of taking Michigan State to win the national title (admittedly at 300-1 and 500-1, but still ugly)? The AF play was nasty, as it played out just as I thought, so the question was if 11-1 was a bargain with the second best team if I really didn't think they could beat Boise. We actually had some philosophical debates about that one as the season ended.
So the theory is what? I make stuff up to impress the rubes? I bet an array of futures at the Nugget, hoping one would win so I could lay 5K versus fifty bucks? There's a genius AP angle if I've ever seen one.
I mean, c'mon, 5K versus 50 bucks and an apology. What was it mickey used to say about mouths and hummingbirds? Hell, I don't remember.
Quote: TDVegas7 years isn’t enough of a sample? It’s about 5 years more than the paid handicappers use.
52.38% is break even. Where are you after 7 years?
339-291 .5381
About 3% would do that, or better, on 50/50 coin flips just by running well...little over 3% actually. Not statistically significant.
Quote: redietzSSo the theory is what? I make stuff up to impress the rubes?
Did you not read the original post? LOL.
Who knows? No one.
Like I said, post your picks and we can track them. The LEAST you could have done is participated in Missions contest if you were looking for a pat on the back.
There’s an open record there.
Quote: Mission146339-291 .5381
About 3% would do that, or better, on 50/50 coin flips just by running well...little over 3% actually. Not statistically significant.
Very good. Anything over 52.38% is an achievement.
What was your record this year?
Quote: TDVegasVery good. Anything over 52.38% is an achievement.
What was your record this year?
47-39
I don't think he called you a liar, or even implied it though his tone had a bit of disparagement.
This site, which you also slightly disparage for it, and perhaps rightly, has had a standard of proof higher than most, in that the skeptics here invite EVERYBODY, not just you, to make their picks known in advance, in order to create a track record for people to judge for themselves.
You rightly say your paying customers would resent that. Something about cows, and milk, amirite?
He rightly says that past results CAN be faked or cherry-picked. Even if they are contemporaneous, who's to say it's a complete record? Perhaps you have adequate and convincing safeguards built into your record-keeping, as it would be a useful tool to offer prospective customers. This can't be the only place you run into skepticism about predicting future events. If so, more power to you.
I'm saying no foul, in that none of what was said was any different than it would have been to any other tout and was not directed at you personally.
It's in the nature of what you do, and how many are out there doing it fraudulently, that a higher standard of proof would be too costly to you to provide. You are, at its heart, selling a belief system in your prognostication, requiring both a bankroll of some significance from its followers, and a fee for that information.
So, stalemate. I suggest you both step back.
Quote: beachbumbabsRedietz,
I don't think he called you a liar, or even implied it though his tone had a bit of disparagement.
This site, which you also slightly disparage for it, and perhaps rightly, has had a standard of proof higher than most, in that the skeptics here invite EVERYBODY, not just you, to make their picks known in advance, in order to create a track record for people to judge for themselves.
You rightly say your paying customers would resent that. Something about cows, and milk, amirite?
He rightly says that past results CAN be faked or cherry-picked. Even if they are contemporaneous, who's to say it's a complete record? Perhaps you have adequate and convincing safeguards built into your record-keeping, as it would be a useful tool to offer prospective customers. This can't be the only place you run into skepticism about predicting future events. If so, more power to you.
I'm saying no foul, in that none of what was said was any different than it would have been to any other tout and was not directed at you personally.
It's in the nature of what you do, and how many are out there doing it fraudulently, that a higher standard of proof would be too costly to you to provide. You are, at its heart, selling a belief system in your prognostication, requiring both a bankroll of some significance from its followers, and a fee for that information.
So, stalemate. I suggest you both step back.
Good post.
Everyone wants to come here, talk about how successful their sports betting has been, yet not post any actual picks prior to a game being played.
Then they get offended that nobody believes them, and go on and on about how their bets are documented here and there , or they PMd a friend , or they told their sister etc etc.
R.i.p. Steeldco. He had some good years , he had some bad years, but he posted every pick and tracked his record.
I realize you don't know anything about me, and you assume I operate like every other handicapper. You would be incorrect. I head a partnership and don't "charge for picks" or "charge fees." I operate on percent of profit, and everybody is in the same mix, although people can opt out of certain subcategories, such as futures or middles shooting, although even those who opt out of pure middles shooting get stuck with some element of it. I don't take on any new people. If you doubt me, have people try. I'm not recruiting. I'm not selling. I'm too old to care about expanding or impressing. I have a body of work, and I report it honestly.
The first time my girlfriend met one of my oldest partners, I had lost eight plays in a row. They were all small, garbage plays, but still, eight in a row. We sat down for lunch at the Mirage, and my partner said to me nonchalantly, "Hey, Bob, how about we win a game one of these weeks?" My girlfriend was horrified. I thought it was funny. That's our tone. It ain't easy, but we know what we're doing.
My belief system is that I know I can get my ass kicked any week or any month or any year. My friends are largely academics and scientists, and the last thing I do is distorted reporting. My reporting is, and always has been, absolutely pristine. As far as gambling goes, if I put it on a forum, or in an article, or blather about it in person, it's true. I was monitored by the toughest publication in Las Vegas from roughly 1982-95 or thereabouts. The publisher, Mike McCusker, a former Seattle Times reporter, had nothing bad to say about me. I didn't win every year. Nobody does. But I did some cool things, including being the top college football profit guy for three separate years, which noone else had done.
I listed why no winning handicapper should be motivated to publicly post plays in a previous post. You're not going to come up with a refutation of that. Go ahead and try.
Quote: redietzBabs,
I realize you don't know anything about me, and you assume I operate like every other handicapper. You would be incorrect. I head a partnership and don't "charge for picks" or "charge fees." I operate on percent of profit, and everybody is in the same mix, although people can opt out of certain subcategories, such as futures or middles shooting, although even those who opt out of pure middles shooting get stuck with some element of it. I don't take on any new people. If you doubt me, have people try. I'm not recruiting. I'm not selling. I'm too old to care about expanding or impressing. I have a body of work, and I report it honestly.
The first time my girlfriend met one of my oldest partners, I had lost eight plays in a row. They were all small, garbage plays, but still, eight in a row. We sat down for lunch at the Mirage, and my partner said to me nonchalantly, "Hey, Bob, how about we win a game one of these weeks?" My girlfriend was horrified. I thought it was funny. That's our tone. It ain't easy, but we know what we're doing.
My belief system is that I know I can get my ass kicked any week or any month or any year. My friends are largely academics and scientists, and the last thing I do is distorted reporting. My reporting is, and always has been, absolutely pristine. As far as gambling goes, if I put it on a forum, or in an article, or blather about it in person, it's true. I was monitored by the toughest publication in Las Vegas from roughly 1982-95 or thereabouts. The publisher, Mike McCusker, a former Seattle Times reporter, had nothing bad to say about me. I didn't win every year. Nobody does. But I did some cool things, including being the top college football profit guy for three separate years, which noone else had done.
I listed why no winning handicapper should be motivated to publicly post plays in a previous post. You're not going to come up with a refutation of that. Go ahead and try.
Thanks for the clarification. I appreciate that you used the opportunity to further explain your situation.
Quote: redietz
no winning handicapper should be motivated to publicly post plays
you don't have to post plays if you don't want to
but your posts reflect a kind of bragging - you want admiration for what you've done in the past
but the world doesn't work that way - you get admiration for what you do and show 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰
you don't want to do and show something 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰 then you won't get the admiration you crave
what should I do? post about how many points I scored in high school and college basketball games?
here's a little taste - I had 29 against Wheaton High in 1969 - I won't hold my breath waiting for applause
Quote: lilredroosteryou don't have to post plays if you don't want to
but your posts reflect a kind of bragging - you want admiration for what you've done in the past
but the world doesn't work that way - you get admiration for what you do and show 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰
you don't want to do and show something 𝐫𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐧𝐨𝐰 then you won't get the admiration you crave
what should I do? post about how many points I scored in high school and college basketball games?
here's a little taste - I had 29 against Wheaton High in 1969 - I won't hold my breath waiting for applause
I salute your priorities. I think it's an excellent idea to base your opinion of sports handicappers on what they've done this week, or this month, or this season as opposed to, say, 40 cumulative years. Makes absolute mathematical sense. Almost as much sense as "craving admiration" from rubes.
See, I'm getting the hang of this oblique, passive voice stuff. No sense calling a spade a spade when you can use passive third-party constructions. Brilliant forum rules, really.
For the record, besides "Tipsters or Gypsters?" and being in the Playbook national publication for a dozen years or so, my ostensible (I say ostensible because NFL plays of mine aren't worth much) top two plays each week have been publicly displayed in the invitation-only Wise Guys Contest for the last 30 years (www.playbook.com//Vegas-Wise-Guys/).
Quote: Mission146Sample size isn’t significant enough to believe that I’m particularly skilled. Could just be on the right side of the bell curve. Thank you for the congrats! It’s fun to have a good record.
Mission! Shame on you! You should call BBB or Wiz and ask to be suspended! You are betting on Sunday using THURSDAY's lines!!!!! And occasionally, a line that was a TYPO!!!! OOOPS.... we had the wrong team favored..... OOOPS the O/U line was off by 5.....
Quote: redietz...my ostensible (I say ostensible because NFL plays of mine aren't worth much) top two plays each week have been publicly displayed in the invitation-only Wise Guys Contest for the last 30 years (www.playbook.com//Vegas-Wise-Guys/).
a) It appears anyone can join this invitation-only contest.
b) I don't see any plays
What am I missing?
2) Claims the world, can't take any kind of questions/criticism.
3) Ignores math.
4) Doesn't know the difference between "your" and "you're" obviously.
Yep, just another clown on the forums =P.
Quote: Romes1) Apparent biggest "point" was "it's possible" to which numerous people replied "yeah, we know it is..." then he goes off "OMG you guys don't think it's possible to win!" lol
2) Claims the world, can't take any kind of questions/criticism.
3) Ignores math.
4) Doesn't know the difference between "your" and "you're" obviously.
Yep, just another clown on the forums =P.
Looks like one and done, not been here in 5 days
Quote: SOOPOOMission! Shame on you! You should call BBB or Wiz and ask to be suspended! You are betting on Sunday using THURSDAY's lines!!!!! And occasionally, a line that was a TYPO!!!! OOOPS.... we had the wrong team favored..... OOOPS the O/U line was off by 5.....
For what it's worth, almost none of my picks are based on line move. I also consider the fact that I MUST pick five games every week and can only skip one week per season. Overall, I'm sure I would pick fewer than five games a week if playing for money. Although, on occasion, I might pick more than five.
ADDED: Also, half my weeks I sent my picks to ONM as soon as the lines were posted in order to qualify for his prize. I actually performed better those weeks.
When did redietz emerge as a profitable sports bettor in this thread?
Quote: SM777Wait, I must've missed it.
When did redietz emerge as a profitable sports bettor in this thread?
He didn’t
