The Adventures of MDawg

Thanks Soopoo. Always the diplomat. That's good.

ABNB and DASH - well, typically, these IPOs fly then they drop, at least for a while, but then - for example with FB, BABA - they end up going higher than ever after dropping from their initial opening hysteria. Then again every now and then we have a TSLA that just keeps going up such that buying from day one would have been the best idea....

In other words, it's hard to say whether buying from the getgo or waiting for a dip is the best for these two IPOs, assuming you buy into them at all. Looks like DASH is already in a dip of sorts today.

Quote: SOOPOO

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Hey Ed... thanks for SMG!

MD believes that he can take advantage of streaks and patterns. He has shown pictures of a shoe with lots of Players in a row and pointed out how much money he made by riding the streak. I can assure you he would not be embarrass by betting on Player when the streak tells him to do so.

So you believe in streaks????????
If player wins 5 times in a row
What are the odds of 6 times in a row
The same exact odds if there was no streak
Its absurd to believe the streak will continue
I'd bet banker and ignore the fantasy streak and believe in math instead

Quote: MDawg

In other words, it's hard to say whether buying from the getgo or waiting for a dip is the best for these two IPOs, assuming you buy into them at all. Looks like DASH is already in a dip of sorts today.

I think the fact that DASH went off so high just tells me that UBER may be undervalued. I think I will pick up a little bit of UBER.

I haven't owned UBER, but I have had LYFT for a little while. I had to average in more at 24, and finally now I'm in the green over all on it. I expect it to make it through to the 50s again soon enough.

WYNN is a good one too, although if you didn't get in in the 70s (or below) on this latest dip, a lot of the runup may be done, for now, until things really start picking up again in Vegas and Macau.

Quote: terapined

So you believe in streaks????????
If player wins 5 times in a row
What are the odds of 6 times in a row
The same exact odds if there was no streak
Its absurd to believe the streak will continue
I'd bet banker and ignore the fantasy streak and believe in math instead

Of course I believe in streaks. They are easy to identify AFTER they have occurred! But of course that 6th hand is no more or less likely to win because of the streak of 5 before.

You keep saying you’d bet on banker. I think you mean to say you wouldn’t bet at all! Frankly, the house edge difference is small enough if I was forced to play bac I would probably bet on player sometimes.

I think it would be a rare bac player that always bets banker.

Quote: MDawg

I haven't owned UBER, but I have had LYFT for a little while. I had to average in more at 24, and finally now I'm in the green over all on it. I expect it to make it through to the 50s again soon enough.

I only mentioned Uber because their UberEats is similiar to DASH.

Good point DR.

Quote: SOOPOO

Of course I believe in streaks. They are easy to identify AFTER they have occurred! But of course that 6th hand is no more or less likely to win because of the streak of 5 before.

You keep saying you’d bet on banker. I think you mean to say you wouldn’t bet at all! Frankly, the house edge difference is small enough if I was forced to play bac I would probably bet on player sometimes.

I think it would be a rare bac player that always bets banker.

If I play craps
Strictly a dark side
I strictly follow the math
Believing is streaks is right up there with voodoo
When I pass by bac tables and see people religiously keeping track of streaks, I just laugh and chuckle. It's the height of stupidity.

Soopoo, I posted about this - the last shoe I played this last trip, after about five or ten hands it became clear that banker went only one. In other words, every time a bank came up, it would be followed by player. Every time, without fail. After not long, the dealer was saying "Bet ten thousand!" and the pit boss, "All in player" every time after there was a bank winning hand.

I kept thinking, no way this will keep up, it is going to change, so I wasn't really buying into it so very much at first. After about the fifth time this happened, I started just dropping lots of black chips onto player, and winning. Eventually, I placed 1800 plus 100 on the side for the dealer - every time. The pattern never broke - all the way to the very end. I cleared almost twenty thousand on that shoe, and if I had really been buying into it, would have easily won over a hundred or two hundred thousand.

I've had shoes where it never goes past two. That's it - with almost no deviation, when two players or two banks hit, it goes to the other side. I've played at such shoes with big players who practically emptied the tray.

I've had pattern shoes, I've had runs, I've had chops, it's uncanny how these keep up. In short, unless you are IN the game and playing, none of this means anything to you. And bottom line - try to tell the guy who wins millions in one shoe that he shouldn't follow the ongoing pattern or streak. Try to tell ME who wins consistently at Baccarat, for years, that it's only luck. I won't get into all I do to calculate what might happen next hand, but believe me, I have a system not just for what to bet but also for ties, and...it works. Does it always work? Of course not - or else I'd retire young and just play Baccarat! But, it works often enough so that I win consistently, have fun, and get comp'ed.

Another thing people don't think about, is that every time you pick up those craps bones and shake them, it's a truly independent event, and nothing is fixed as far as what is going to happen in the future. In Baccarat, once that shoe is cut, if there is a twenty two bank run coming up, it WILL come up. If that shoe is cut such that the bank will never go past one, that WILL happen. A subtle difference - meaning, that if I go up to a shoe that has a run in it, I am going to get that run and no one may take that away from me. There are good shoes and bad shoes in Baccarat, and discerning which type you are in isn't all that hard for a good player. I'd explain further, but, why? Looking from the outside few will understand the difference between craps and roulette, and Baccarat.

There was a long period that I was too busy with real life to game at casinos. About a decade long hiatus. During that period, I used to go to Vegas a lot, with girlfriends, and later with the wife, and not play a nickel. No gaming at all. I'd walk by the Baccarat tables, look at the screen and wonder...how did I ever win so much at this game? But - after I returned to play, and I have continued to win at it, consistently, it's another story. Looking from the outside, is different from playing the game. And most people lack the talent to ever win at any gambling anyway - no matter what game they play - they lack what it takes.

What I like the most about Baccarat, besides that I win at it, is that no one molests you for winning at it. When I used to clock them consistently at blackjack, the heat was on! to the point where I was effectively banned from the game - they imposed a 3X maximum spread on me for two years until I managed to befriend the director of table games and he lifted the ban. But at Baccarat, no one says a word. At worst, in the past when I'd play really big Baccarat, and be winning really big for too many days in a row, someone would come out of the woodwork to watch me closely. The same thing happened on a mid five figure run I had at a casino a little over a year ago, a casino with only one Baccarat table that wasn't used to such action and winning. But, yes they watched, yet no one said a thing.

The game just isn't for someone who thinks that he should bet bank only. That's a sure loser.

You're going to have trouble getting anyone to make a movie based on that script.

Quote: MDawg

S
The game just isn't for someone who thinks that he should bet bank only. That's a sure loser.

But the loss will be guaranteed less then yours over the long run because you give the house a bigger advantage
No wonder casinos want you
They beg for donation to the casino strategy.
Ive met Axel. He does not play donation to the casino strategy
He's smarter then Bac players
I'm a ploppy, even I'm smarter then Bac players lol

If you believe, as you apparently do, that there is no way to overcome the house advantage, then the house advantage does not change no matter how you play Baccarat, is the problem with what you are saying, and why I don't bother to comment further on your thoughts. At least come up with something consistent that makes sense.

Quote: MDawg

If you believe, as you apparently do, that there is no way to overcome the house advantage, then the house advantage does not change no matter how you play Baccarat, is the problem with what you are saying, and why I don't bother to comment further on your thoughts. At least come up with something consistent that makes sense.

You can overcome the house edge. It’s called variance (luck). If there was a systematic, predictable and consistent method to overcome the house edge...the game would not exist. At least not exist without restrictions ala card counting.

One thing about Baccarat is that the variance is much greater between winning shoes and losing shoes if one plays the way I do. If you bet only bank, the variance isn't nearly as great. If you believe that there is a way to take advantage of great variance, or to detect it, that's the beginning of understanding how it's possible to win at Baccarat. As well, when variance is great, walking away ahead means more.

For example when it comes to the tie bet, my system actually works better than the expected outcome. And I think there are others who believe there are ways to predict such side bets, too.

Quote: MDawg

One thing about Baccarat is that the variance is much greater between winning shoes and losing shoes if one plays the way I do.

If you are just going to make up stuff...check please.

When I started this thing up again a few years ago, I said "Let me see if I can win again." Today, I have a right to say, I can do this.

Same with stock trading. Yes, of course, the main reason there's tons in my accounts is due to buy and hold, but still, after over two decades of successful stock trading, the results speak for themselves.

That's the bottom line.

Quote: MDawg

When I started this thing up again a few years ago, I said "Let me see if I can win again." Today, I have a right to say, I can do this.

Same with stock trading. Yes, of course, the main reason there's tons in my accounts is due to buy and hold, but still, after over two decades of successful stock trading, the results speak for themselves.

That's the bottom line.

My guess is the ones falling for this are also up at 2am ordering stuff off late night infomercials. Good luck. Happy trails.

If I can win 10 hands ahead per shoe, I'd only have to play a few shoes per day. Being on the right side of a 7+ in a row winning streak gets me closer.

Quote: MDawg

When I started this thing up again a few years ago, I said "Let me see if I can win again." Today, I have a right to say, I can do this.

I have no doubt you can win with a donation to casino strategy in a session
You have a right to say that
Ive played negative EV games and walked away a winner
Millions of people have won playing bac with a donation to casino strategy in a session
If a 100 people walk into a casino to play bac tonight for an hour
I have no doubt about 48 of them will be winners
Maybe you are one of those 48 and having fun
Go for it
But in the long run
A donation to casino strategy which you employ is just that in the long run. A casino donation

Quote: MDawg

If you believe, as you apparently do, that there is no way to overcome the house advantage, then the house advantage does not change no matter how you play Baccarat, is the problem with what you are saying, and why I don't bother to comment further on your thoughts.

??????????????????
This has absolutely nothing to do with what I believe
It has to do with this
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/basics/#toc-Odds

and specifically this from the Wizards page
"Every baccarat table will have plenty of score cards and pencils for the players to keep track of the outcome of every hand. Most players will do so religiously and carefully analyze their card for trends as the winning hand switches back and forth from the banker to the player. This is a big waste of time! The smart player will bet on the banker every time and leave the score cards alone."

Thank you Wizard of Vegas for making Baccarat crystal clear so I wont play the donation to casino strategy that dawg uses

DRich I'm not buying or selling anything. I'm doing it.

I made a wager a while back - anyone who wants to come to my table well equipped with CASH, at the end of my session I will pay him double what I lost, or he must pay me double what I win. And I won't change a thing, I'll tip out to the dealers just as much for that session as always, I'll play the same as always. Bring about twenty grand to my table if you're so sure, that should cover it, I won't be looking to make a killing.

Short of that, it's just talk from some of you guys. I'm one of the few actually doing anything here it would seem.

ChumpChange: yes exactly, you're on the right track. Get ahead enough for whatever reason, and it becomes a lot harder to end up behind.

Quote: MDawg

DRich I'm not buying or selling anything. I'm doing it.

I made a wager a while back - anyone who wants to come to my table well equipped with CASH, at the end of my session I will pay him double what I lost, or he must pay me double what I win. And I won't change a thing, I'll tip out to the dealers just as much for that session as always, I'll play the same as always. Bring about twenty grand to my table if you're so sure, that should cover it, I won't be looking to make a killing.

Short of that, it's just talk from some of you guys. I'm one of the few actually doing anything here it would seem.

ChumpChange: yes exactly, you're on the right track. Get ahead enough for whatever reason, and it becomes a lot harder to end up behind.

I don’t understand your bet. Just playing double stakes for you. If I sit at the table with you and make every bet you do also in the same amount with tips, then I just hand you my winnings at the end of the session, or you hand me back my losses. I’m net zero either way.

You don't bet at all. I just play my session the way I always do and you pay me double what I win. (Or you collect from me double what I lose.) That was clear from the getgo of that proposal, but no one seems certain enough that I can't win to wager money on his belief.

I remember once some guy bet me 500 he would win on his player hand against my bank, and I accepted. The dealers told me not to do it, that he had already seen his hand. He was a scoundrel but I still tossed him the 500 chip when he won. Keeping my word means something to me - unlike some people. And I was winning a ton that shoe anyway, and bumping the flow with an argument wasn't worth the 500.

Quote: MDawg

You don't bet at all. I just play my session the way I always do and you pay me double what I win. (Or you collect from me double what I lose.) That was clear from the getgo of that proposal, but no one seems certain enough that I can't win to wager money on his belief.

I remember once some guy bet me 500 he would win on his player hand against my bank, and I accepted. The dealers told me not to do it, that he had already seen his hand. He was a scoundrel but I still tossed him the 500 chip when he won. Keeping my word means something to me - unlike some people. And I was winning a ton that shoe anyway, and bumping the flow with an argument wasn't worth the 500.

I woulda done same.

I don’t really care if you win or lose so no interest in that bet. Like I said, if we are ever in Vegas at the same time I’d be happy to meet up and gamble with you.

Quote: MDawg

I made a wager a while back - anyone who wants to come to my table well equipped with CASH, at the end of my session I will pay him double what I lost, or he must pay me double what I win. And I won't change a thing, I'll tip out to the dealers just as much for that session as always, I'll play the same as always. Bring about twenty grand to my table if you're so sure, that should cover it, I won't be looking to make a killing.

MD..... finally a bet that I can understand. And one that is simple. I’ll make it a little simpler. You start with a bankroll of $10k. You play bac until you either double it, or lose it all. Both you and I in advance escrow $5k with Wizard. If you double it, you win my $5k. If you lose it all, I win your $5k. I’m ready! I expect to win the bet 52 out of 100 times. What say you?

No SooPoo, I mean come on. I play the way I play. Winning is hard enough now you want to handicap me? I thought that's the job of the casinos not us! 😀

When I play a session I leave when I leave, and then I report it here. At least one person here seems to think the sessions are all faked. I'm not going to change a thing, I'll just play the way I always do, obviously, I mean that's what would be important to me. Winning or losing double to a private party simply increases the stakes.

If MDawg loses $25K, he'll owe you $50K. If he wins $25K, you owe him $50K. As in blackjack, it's very situational on who busts first, the dealer or the player.

Until The Wizard validates his play....which will never happen...everything else here is just noise

Quote: MDawg

No SooPoo, I mean come on. I play the way I play. Winning is hard enough now you want to handicap me? I thought that's the job of the casinos not us! 😀

When I play a session I leave when I leave, and then I report it here. At least one person here seems to think the sessions are all faked. I'm not going to change a thing, I'll just play the way I always do, obviously, I mean that's what would be important to me. Winning or losing double to a private party simply increases the stakes.

So theoretically you could make one single wager for $20,000.

Win, the person you bet owes you an additional $40,000 (double your win)?

My understanding is that the Wizard 100% accepts everything I have posted as far as reported past events. He is not calling me a liar. If I am wrong, let him come forward and say otherwise. So if some of you guys are hung on the Wizard as your compass for everything, incapable of independent thought, there ya' go.


But I don't hang on any single person's word anyway. I'm capable of independent, even, analytic thought.

If you don't like the trip reports, don't read them!

Quote: MDawg

My understanding is that the Wizard 100% accepts everything I have posted as far as reported past events. He is not calling me a liar.

On the flip side
He is not saying you are posting the truth. He's just letting you tell a story
He accepts your story 100% but its still just a story. The truth is different. He's not validated that the story is true.
The Wizard loves the Queens Gambit story but its fiction

It's a lot more than a story. There is all sorts of backup posted, maybe you haven't looked at it. Ask CoachBelly he has analyzed it all carefully. And someone (AxelWolf) who has come in and claimed that he could post just as convincing backup for a "story" for free - just to prove a point - has apparently waffled and posted nothing, after he's been offered $5000. by me to post what he was seemingly willing to post for free!

And in any case, having someone watch me play in the future (for free no less! with no wager involved) wouldn't prove anything as to past events. I'd have my anonymity to lose and nothing to gain.

Quote: AxelWolf

AND HE'S NOT BETTING MILLIONS, NOT EVEN CLOSE.

He claims he was rated for 70+ hours averaging $1200 per hand.

I think his action reaches $1mil if only averaging 12 rounds per hour.

How many rounds are typically dealt in one hour for Bac?

Yes, as I've stated I am sure I passed a billion dollar handle years ago. The handle is the dollar amount that passes through the circle.

I've had a host tell me my handle was over a million in just one night's play, and that was at blackjack actually.

Quote: MDawg

Ask CoachBelly he has analyzed it all carefully.

Truth be told, I spent most of my most careful analysis on the food porn.

Quote: MDawg

I go to Vegas regularly. When I go I post my trip reports either here or at TruePassage. That's how I follow through with my action.

On the other hand, all AxelWolf has done within my threads at WOV is make offers, claims and wagers, and not follow through. He offered to buy a watch sight unseen, not caring what brand it was, then without knowing anything more, later backed off by saying he would buy it only, "if it was a good deal."

He came on here and posted that he was willing to go to the trouble to fake all my same pictures and posts to mimic my trip reports, and then, after I even offered him $5000. to do what he had apparently been willing to do for free, he created some qualifiers, for something he appeared willing to do on his own for nothing.

And then he challenged two forum members to monetary bets that I don't even play as I post in my trip reports, but when pressed as to how much he was willing to wager, he said $50. absent - surprise - some qualifiers he wants to impose.

So...the one that keeps saying things and doesn't follow through appears to be AxelWolf, not me.

Which is why I ask him again, to go back, think things through carefully, and then propose EXACTLY what he is willing to wager and what his qualifiers and conditions are. Enough of this AxelWolf making proposals then backing off from them.

The price you offered for the watch was misquoted and you failed to correct it on purpose. As I said before, SooPoo did a good job of explaining the situation I think it's obvious what my intent was.

I asked for you to tell me how much you will be betteing per hand and how many hands you will be playing, but you won't answer that simple question... I SAID, I WOULD BE WILLING TO BE MORE, BUT, I NEED TO HAVE MY QUESTIONS ANSWERED. You refused to answer the question and kept going on about the bet, so I just posted a low number on purpose. That bet was never intended for you, it was intended for the people I made the bet offer with. It's fairly obvious why I can't make a significant bet with you regarding that. I have already explained that I'm not going to make situation where you would have a significant advantage.

Your offer was to anyone. I would have been willing to post of a few things for free, however, I don't think posting a few things would be good enough for you to qualify for the 5k. You haven't come up with a list of things that would qualify and you have come up with a way to guarantee the money will be paid if successful. No one is taking you at your word you will pay the 5k after going through all the trouble.

Quote: MDawg

It's a lot more than a story. There is all sorts of backup posted, maybe you haven't looked at it. Ask CoachBelly he has analyzed it all carefully.

Carefully dont mean jack
Who is coachbelly and what are his qualifications in determining if your story is true or false?

Just go on posting that the house edge changes if you deviate from playing bank only. In a way, you support MDawg without even realizing it!

Quote: MDawg

someone watch me play in the future (for free no less! with no wager involved) wouldn't prove anything as to past events. I'd have my anonymity to lose and nothing to gain.

These doubters can't acknowledge that they want something from you.

Then they object to your terms for providing what they have asked for, as if your easily manageable terms are unreasonable.

Quote: AxelWolf

you haven't come up with a list of things that would qualify

Yes he did.

You should go back and read the thread, if it's not too much trouble to correct yourself.

Quote: terapined

Carefully dont mean jack
Who is coachbelly and what are his qualifications in determining if your story is true or false?

I'm certain that I'm overqualified.

What are the minimum qualifications that you would accept?

Quote: MDawg

No SooPoo, I mean come on. I play the way I play. Winning is hard enough now you want to handicap me? I thought that's the job of the casinos not us! 😀

When I play a session I leave when I leave, and then I report it here. At least one person here seems to think the sessions are all faked. I'm not going to change a thing, I'll just play the way I always do, obviously, I mean that's what would be important to me. Winning or losing double to a private party simply increases the stakes.

I mean, just reading your trip reports.... up in the hundreds of thousands of dollars..... your stock exploits sound up in the millions..... I frankly thought your answer was that the bet wasn’t for enough money to make it worth your while....

Anyway, as soon as I can get vaccinated, I’m itching to visit Vegas. Hopefully you and I will get to meet, with no strings attached.

Quote: coachbelly

I'm certain that I'm overqualified.

What are the minimum qualifications that you would accept?

Why do you believe you are overqualified and not just qualified to determine if the Dawg is truthful?
Almost sounds like a dawg story
Are we gonna get the I want money before I prove I am overqualified BS to make it worth my while
Why not go all in and say you are super duper qualified lol

Quote: terapined

Why do you believe you are overqualified?
Almost sounds like a dawg story
Are we gonna get the I want money before I prove I am qualified BS to make it worth my while

List the minimum qualifications, or do you need to get paid to do that?

Quote: coachbelly

List the minimum qualifications, or do you need to get paid to do that?

The minimum qualification is to convince somebody I have met and trust such as Axel or the Wizard or Soopoo

My guess is SOOPOO would take the challenge if you agreed to a minimum number of hands. I would think somewhere between 1000 and 5000 would work.

On the one hand, you say that quitting while ahead doesn't work. On the other, you want to force someone to play a certain number of hands as part of a wager? 😄


Again, I have proposed a wager. Take it or leave it. If you are so certain I cannot win - the way that I play - then take up the wager. At most, it'll cost you twice what I win. 😆

Quote: coachbelly

Yes he did.

You should go back and read the thread, if it's not too much trouble to correct yourself.

please just post it for me.

Quote: coachbelly

These doubters can't acknowledge that they want something from you.

Then they object to your terms for providing what they have asked for, as if your easily manageable terms are unreasonable.

I thought I met the terms that you keep posting. Now it sounds like he has turned that down.

Quote: coachbelly

He claims he was rated for 70+ hours averaging $1200 per hand.

I think his action reaches $1mil if only averaging 12 rounds per hour.

How many rounds are typically dealt in one hour for Bac?

YOU SAID.....



"You wanna watch a guy bet millions at Bac, and you don't want him to know your name?"

I said" AND HE'S NOT BETTING MILLIONS, NOT EVEN CLOSE.

Explain how it is I would be watching a guy bet Millions? I don't care what he claims he has done in the past, that's why we are having this discussion, many people don't believe much of what he says, I certainly don't, and I'm not often wrong about this stuff.

I don't even care to watch him play, I have no interest in watching people gamble for the most part. I have been gambling with an advantage since the 90's... big, small and everything in between I only want to prove he is not playing as he would have us believe.

He could ask that someone deposit 50k just to watch him play. Then the guy plays one hand for $600 on player and $600 on banker and then claims victory. So now theres a possibility of him knowing all your details and information(did you read my post of how this might be possible? You had no comment but you were the one who asked, shall I reposit it again, perhaps it needs it own thread?) along with a CTR to watch him play a measly $1200 with no actual risk to him , other than a few bucks in commission.