The Adventures of MDawg
Quote: mcallister3200I’m not saying the guys full of it, I’ll just say the supposed always winning high roller, took and posted MULTIPLE pictures of simply asparagus spears. Come on, man!
But they were, "high end, top of the line" asparagus spears.
I need to get to the gym. Went yesterday. I was going every other day in Vegas too, but might have gained a tad of weight. And it wasn't from asparagus though, it was from those eggs, chicken sausage, hash browns and pancakes breakfast that I had too frequently. At home my morning meal is much more minimal.
Luckily a few gyms remain open, illegally, where we live.
Quote: MDawgI believe there was one pic of asparagus only?
It was either multiple or it was the same asparagus picture posted twice.
Quote: MDawg
Luckily a few gyms remain open, illegally, where we live.
"Illegally" hun? Interesting. You seem like such and up and up guy.
The gyms are pretty safe these days, at least the ones I go to, whether open legally or illegally, in that they are relatively empty, and everyone is masked. Not so many people seem intent on working out these days.
Quote: kewljMichael Shackleford is highly respected and known as a gambling math expert. Even though he no longer owns them, the forums and websites that bear his name and brand (Wizard of Vegas/ Wizard of Odds) are places that players come to to learn, hear and read the truth about gambling and gambling math. Allowing claims that defy the math and reality to go unchallenged is wrong. It is just not fair to people.
Thank you for the kind words!
We try to respect free speech here as much as we can while not allowing the forum to turn into a cesspool. You are also more than welcome to challenge mathematically impossible claims as long as you don't insult the claimant. Remember, you may attack the writing, not the writer.
I've said myself that I don't believe MDawg's claims. It's not like I'm not taking a stand.
Quote: kewljAllowing claims that defy the math and reality to go unchallenged is wrong.
That's pointless rhetoric.
Which claims that defy math and reality have been allowed to go unchallenged?
The responsibility of the challenger is to accurately the quote claim he calls out, and then supply the math to prove the claim impossible.
Otherwise the challenge is not legitimate, and it's the challenger that deserves to be called out.
Quote: Wizard
I've said myself that I don't believe MDawg's claims. It's not like I'm not taking a stand.
Yes, now you have and I applaud you for that. And maybe you did before, I mean this thread is 200+ pages and I haven't gone back and read every single page and post. lol.
I am sorry if I come across as non-wavering on this topic, but if a person makes a claim like this, long-term and frequent wins, playing -EV, the onus is on him to explain how that is possible. And posting a challenge with conditions so rigged, he knows they won't be met is not explaining how he defies the math.
And if he goes about posting hundreds of pages of the claim, complete with pictures of stacks of cash, casino chips, jewelry, all designed to "muddy" the situation, he should be called out regularly, especially on a gambling math forum.
Quote: WizardI've said myself that I don't believe MDawg's claims.
I have been asked to expand on this.
I do not dispute everything MDawg has ever said. I dispute the notion that he has a way to beat baccarat straight up -- no advantage play and not counting comps. To be honest, I'm not sure he is directly saying that, but that is my interpretation of the message of hundreds of posts.
It is time for a put up or shut up moment, as I am getting sick of all the suspensions this topic is engendering. MDawg, if you claim you can beat baccarat, then show me. Not with pictures of money on a bed, but by actually playing.
Quote: WizardI have been asked to expand on this.
I do not dispute everything MDawg has ever said. I dispute the notion that he has a way to beat baccarat straight up -- no advantage play and not counting comps. To be honest, I'm not sure he is directly saying that, but that is my interpretation of the message of hundreds of posts.
It is time for a put up or shut up moment, as I am getting sick of all the suspensions this topic is engendering. MDawg, if you claim you can beat baccarat, then show me. Not with pictures of money on a bed, but by actually playing.
Bravo!
But here comes the next part as evidenced by past discussion of this topic.
MDawg will claim he will gladly show you his play if you put up fifty grand in escrow or some other such conditions to "make it worth his while"
There will be other terms and conditions to make it onerous
Then when you decline he will claim it is you who refuse to put up or shut up.
This game has been going on for awhile now (approximately two hundred pages ;)
And in any case, the only thing ANYone may attest to is PAST events. Which I have and continue to do - declare that the trip reports as presented are factual. Whether a game of chance or skill no one may guarantee what happens in the future.
Quote: MDawgThat's ridiculous. That's like saying that anyone who has made any sort of claim on this forum - DarkOz, KewlJ, AxelWolf, etc. - now needs to unmask his identity and play in person in front of other forum members. That is absurd.
And in any case, the only thing ANYone may attest to is PAST events. Which I have and continue to do - declare that the trip reports as presented are factual. Whether a game of chance or skill no one may guarantee what happens in the future.
How can you be afraid to meetup with the Wizard when you were just about to hand him fifty grand in a MDawg challenge?
Were you going to do it in a mask? I can loan you one while you demonstrate your Baccarat skills
BUT I HAVE, TO MANY PEOPLE, ON MANY OCCASIONS, FOR MANY YEARS... INCLUDING THE WIZARD AND OTHERS WHO ARE KNOWN REAL PEOPLE , SOME THAT ARE RESPECTED AND HAVE NO REASON TO MAKE ANYTHING UP. Yes, using real cash in real casinos and making real money.Quote: MDawgThat's ridiculous. That's like saying that anyone who has made any sort of claim on this forum - DarkOz, KewlJ, AxelWolf, etc. - now needs to unmask his identity and play in person in front of other forum members. That is absurd.
And you?
Nothing, nothing, nothing... but words and stuff that CAN be faked, all while dodging any possibility of meeting anyone legitimate for any reason who could verify anything about you.
Quote: MDawgThat's ridiculous. That's like saying that anyone who has made any sort of claim on this forum - DarkOz, KewlJ, AxelWolf, etc. - now needs to unmask his identity and play in person in front of other forum members. That is absurd.
And in any case, the only thing ANYone may attest to is PAST events. Which I have and continue to do - declare that the trip reports as presented are factual. Whether a game of chance or skill no one may guarantee what happens in the future.
No way! This is a twist I never saw coming 🙄
Quote: MDawgthe only thing ANYone may attest to is PAST events.
That's 100% correct, and anyone that wants to dispute posted evidence of past events should wager that the evidence cannot be authentic, and participate in an authentication process.
Kid of like an election loser, unwilling to accept the documented results of the election, paying for a recount.
Quote: darkozMDawg will claim he will gladly show you his play if you put up fifty grand in escrow
Maybe he chooses to deal in-person only with those who are of at least minimal substance, and the minimum is $50K.
That's not an unreasonable, considering there is no risk to the challenger to witness the play.
Just deposit the $50K at the cage, why is that onerous?
So that's all you have to do is deposit 50k into a casino without any risk, just prove you have 50k and you can then watch him play at the limits he claims to be playing? I was unaware of this.Quote: coachbellyMaybe he chooses to deal in-person only with those who are of at least minimal substance, and the minimum is $50K.
That's not an unreasonable, considering there is no risk to the challenger to witness the play.
Just deposit the $50K at the cage, why is that onerous?
Quote: AxelWolfSo that's all you have to do is deposit 50k into a casino without any risk, just prove you have 50k and you can then watch him play at the limits he claims to be playing? I was unaware of this.
That's not MDawg challenge.
Anything Coach Belly says about the challenge is his own INTERPRETATION
Tune in for the answers next time. Same Bat time, same Bat channel.
Quote: AxelWolfSo that's all you have to do is deposit 50k into a casino without any risk, just prove you have 50k and you can then watch him play at the limits he claims to be playing? I was unaware of this.
This was posted almost a year ago.
I thought you already declined to participate, stating it was not worth your while.
Quote: MDawgHe will need to come and deposit $50K at the cage. He may play whatever he wants to play BJ roulette craps Baccarat I don't care. No sports betting tho. So may I play whatever I want to play, but it has to be play at the same casino. At the end of two weeks I will be in the plus and I will have won more than he. It is a simple challenge, there is no side bet.
How can any interpretation of the above conclude there is a $50K bet, or any risk required of the challenger?
Quote: coachbellyThis was posted almost a year ago.
I thought you already declined to participate, stating it was not worth your while.
How can any interpretation of the above conclude there is a $50K bet, or any risk required of the challenger?
MDawg is an attorney. He doesn't need you to speak for him. Especially since you seem to get everything ass backwards and jumbled up.
Quote: unJonWill Coachbelly support or throw cold water on the challenge?
I'm in support of the MDawg challenge, as quoted above in my previous post,
which are essentially MDawg's terms for allowing doubters to watch him play.
From what he's written, the Wizard qualifies as one of the doubters.
So I encourage the Wizard to accept the challenge as quoted.
I also support a subsequent MDawg challenge, whereby the challenger must wager $50K that
the challenger can disprove any one of the claims MDawg listed for that challenge.
The Wizard requested some documents as evidence of MDawg's past results,
I'm in support of him examining them, and then reporting back.
If a wager is required to examine the documents,
then I encourage the Wizard to wager that he can prove the documents are not authentic.
Quote: kewljMDawg is an attorney. He doesn't need you to speak for him. Especially since you seem to get everything ass backwards and jumbled up.
MDawg invited me into the debate.
He can ask me not to speak for him, but that's not for you to say.
I'm posting and commenting on quotes from this thread.
Despite what you claim, it's all straight-forward as written,
I don't have anything backwards or jumbled,
and you can't make any logical case that I do.
Quote: coachbellyMDawg invited me into the debate.
He can ask me not to speak for him, but that's not for you to say.
I'm posting and commenting on quotes from this thread.
Despite what you claim, it's all straight-forward as written,
I don't have anything backwards or jumbled,
and you can't make any logical case that I do.
But Wizard just laid out a new challenge or conditions or whatever you want to call it. How about you stop being an instigator and let Mike and MDawg work it out or decide they can't work it out.
Quote: kewljBut Wizard just laid out a new challenge or conditions or whatever you want to call it.
He did? Where?
Quote: WizardI have been asked to expand on this.
I do not dispute everything MDawg has ever said. I dispute the notion that he has a way to beat baccarat straight up -- no advantage play and not counting comps. To be honest, I'm not sure he is directly saying that, but that is my interpretation of the message of hundreds of posts.
It is time for a put up or shut up moment, as I am getting sick of all the suspensions this topic is engendering. MDawg, if you claim you can beat baccarat, then show me. Not with pictures of money on a bed, but by actually playing.
Coachbelly, the bolded is the new Wizard challenge.
Quote: unJonCoachbelly, the bolded is the new Wizard challenge.
That's it? Just to be clear...are these the conditions?
"show me. Not with pictures of money on a bed, but by actually playing."
Pretty vague compared to others I've read.
Originally there was talk about a wager of some kind, I thought, but the logistics of having someone shadow both of us keeping records doesn't seem practical, especially if there's no side wager it's not worth the time and effort. Then it morphed into this with no wager?. IIRC it had to be when he was here next? That was long ago and new proposal's have been talked about. Either way, I guess you're proposing I just show up with the money and then do nothing just for the opportunity to watch. That doesn't sound like the intent of the offer, therefore, that's kind of a weasel move and I don't want to be 'that guy'. FYI I'm not at all interested in, and never have been interested in proving or disproving his winning or losing, because, I'm positive he doesn't beat baccarat. I maintain that he doesn't even bet at the levels and length of time he would have us believe. I already said, if he can prove that he's betting like 3k per hand for like even 30 hands I would apologize and admit I was wrong.Quote: coachbellyThis was posted almost a year ago.
I thought you already declined to participate, stating it was not worth your while.
How can any interpretation of the above conclude there is a $50K bet, or any risk required of the challenger?
Quote: AxelWolfif there's no side wager it's not worth the time and effort.
That's exactly how I reported you replied months ago, long before you claimed to be unaware.
Quote: AxelWolfSo that's all you have to do is deposit 50k into a casino without any risk, just prove you have 50k and you can then watch him play at the limits he claims to be playing? I was unaware of this.
Quote: coachbellyThis was posted almost a year ago...you already declined to participate, stating it was not worth your while.
Quote: AxelWolfif he can prove that he's betting like 3k per hand for like even 30 hands I would apologize and admit I was wrong.
There is no "he's betting" that you can comment on, until you deposit $50K at the cage and watch him play.
His claim is about what he has bet...is that what you want him to prove?
Examine the relevant documents from the casinos he played at, and report back to us.
How else could he prove what he has bet?
I don't think he has ever or will ever bet at the levels he claims. I believe its all a big hoax(*refer to B79 who strung evryone one along till the last minute for much less) . I wouldn't be dumb enough to deposit 50k at a casino of his choosing, for all I know, he has a relative or friend that works as a host or in some other financial department. Since you're personal information is required, that would make it far too easy for someone to identify you. Given his past tendency regarding doxing, I wouldn't take that chance.Quote: coachbellyThere is no "he's betting" that you can comment on, until you deposit $50K at the cage and watch him play.
His claim is about what he has bet...is that what you want him to prove?
Examine the relevant documents from the casinos he played at, and report back to us.
How else could he prove what he has bet?
Host's can be easily tricked and manipulate into giving out information they shouldn't, I have seen it numerous times. I have also known people to get free play kickback(walking in money) for bringing in players who make significant deposits even without the person playing. I wouldn't put past someone to take credit for my 50k deposit. Unlikely? Perhaps, but he sure sounds eager and specific about the amounts and whatnot. I'm willing to put up 50k with a trusted member and he do the same to ensure there's actually 50k available for anyone negotiating a bet or challenge. This shouldn't be that hard for a guy who would have us believe he has more money than God. His bitcoin alone that he claims to have bought and held at under $10($3 iirc) levels would be enough to buy and sell us all.
It's my belief that he will never actually show up for anything that involves him risking thousands per hand on baccarat over many hands without any funny business.
Quote: AxelWolfI'm willing to put up 50k with a trusted member and he do the same to ensure there's actually 50k available for anyone negotiating a bet or challenge.
if you do this, please be very careful about what the rules are
for example, if someone is going to deal him 2,000 hands of bacc to resolve the bet -
if he has a $50k bank he could be down $23,000 when he gets to the last hand
then he could bet $27,000 and win the last hand and win the bet
it wouldn't prove anything
As I said before, I'm not making bets or taking any challenges unless I believe I have a significant advantage and theres no con aspect going on. I'm not trying to disprove if he's a winning player or has some magical baccarat ability( we all know...he isn't and doesn't) . My proposal is to ensure he even has the ability to pay or make any deals involving 50k before I or anyone else negotiates anything and wastes their time. He has posted some pictures of rooms, food, cash and watches and logged onto some players casino account. All this is meaningless to me. We have seen it all before, and there have been times where it has been fake. Oftentimes, when it comes to the fakery, it's someone with the same type of forum personality as MD.Quote: lilredroosterif you do this, please be very careful about what the rules are
for example, if someone is going to deal him 2,000 hands of bacc to resolve the bet -
if he has a $50k bank he could be down $23,000 when he gets to the last hand
then he could bet $27,000 and win the last hand and win the bet
it wouldn't prove anything
Again, I will mention this.... He has had plenty of opportunities to meet and greet any number of people here on the forums for a few years now and yet it seems as if he hasn't done so. Nothing adds up if you really think about it.
With lower table limits ($15K max), I'd buy-in for $5K and try to win to $50K-$100K
Quote: ChumpChangeIf I bought in for $20K with a near unlimited LOC, I'd be expecting to win $200K-$400K several times over 7 weeks.
what does that mean?
why does having a very large LOC mean that you're going to win big?
please explain how this works..............thanks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDCB9MQ2IWg
Quote: ChumpChangeLet's Play Baccarat: 1000 Shoes - Advanced Advantage Play - Nov 21, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDCB9MQ2IWg
this is from his notes which appears under the "show more" click"
"In this video I cover 5 different "systems" and show that each of them is a loser. In each case, I play 1000 shoes using the system (80,000 hands) and track the results graphically. I test each system many times, showing the variety of results that can occur. But one outcome remains constant. The player loses at the expected rate."
he is a member here and a respected expert
his vids on winning at baccarat have nothing to do with progressive betting or having a very large LOC in relation to your buy in
the winning methods he describes involve card counting side bets, or tie bets, shuffle tracking, edge sorting, etc....................................that is a completely different ball of wax
*
Quote: AxelWolf
Again, I will mention this.... He has had plenty of opportunities to meet and greet any number of people here on the forums for a few years now and yet it seems as if he hasn't done so. Nothing adds up if you really think about it.
As you know, you and I see this very differently, so I wish you wouldn't use this as a measuring stick of anything, because people have differing views on this practice.
Just look how the message boards have deteriorated in the last 5 years or so. There seems to be a rather large group of people that are anti-AP on every forum or multiple forums. I don't know if they are frustrated, bitter players, or part of the "dark, evil" side or what. In addition to that, members on our side, get into feuds and bad blood situations (and I have had my share) and while I would hope they wouldn't go as far as to turn on you with anything that can harm a career....who knows? Seems like a risk. So the whole meet up thing seems risky to me.
Vegas is a city of what 2 million people. Statistically a pretty good size city. But from a AP perspective, it has much more a small town feel to it. People know you or know people that know you, or maybe just know your face.
While I am fairly young, I am old school. Card counting is my main deal. And card counters have a hard go of it among AP's because we have to interact with casino personnel every time we try to play.....personnel that wants to stop us from playing. I don't know, maybe that makes me overly paranoid.
So I just don't see the benefit of any kind of meet up with a group of people I don't know. I really don't. Now that said, it has been suggested to me and I have started to warm to the idea, that it wouldn't hurt to personally know a few AP's in this town, particularly based in this town, that you can trust, call on in a time of need. I am warming to that. Maybe post covid, which hopefully is right around the corner.
So that is me. But maybe others share my view and aren't warming to the idea. Still see no value in meet ups. So I really wish you wouldn't hold that up as some sort of standard. That is about the least thing about MDawg that I find suspicious.
Quote: ChumpChangeLooks like I'll have to piece together four 25+ hand winning sessions that get me 10X+ my buy-ins so I can survive a 1000 hand losing streak. Losing streaks in that video are unimaginable.
it sounds like you're saying you have a winning system based on a large LOC in relation to the buy in
if that is indeed what you're saying - please describe it - step by step - not in general terms
so everyone can benefit...........thanks
note: the vid that you now seem to be disparaging is the one you recommended
I have to click somewhere in the K column to generate a new 50 shoe outcome in the spreadsheet, and hover my mouse on the result line to see the highs and lows numbers along the way. The very first one had me down 200 hands in 4,000 hands, which is around -3SD.
I tried it as a 1X, 2X, 3X (and stays up until a loss) instead and losing streaks really add up, but a few winning streaks can bring a come-back and then some.
Quote: TankoAnyone considering accepting MDawg's challenge should view the first five minutes of this video. I will save you from losing 50K.
Great video! It was posted yesterday. I wonder if the MDawg drama here may have had something to do with it.
