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September 17th, 2019 at 2:06:20 PM
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Please correct me if i'm flawed in my thinking. Based on the probability of survival as posted on the Wizard of Odds, would it be overall profitable if you waited for a new shooter, established a point, went out across the box for ONE ROLL ONLY and then called your odds off? After one win, then wait for a new shooter to be established and do it again?

Based on the chart below, it shows an 88% chance of survival after 1 throw (preferably the point being established). It is not sexy nor will it win a ton of money, but wouldnt just chipping away at a 12% failure rate be more successful than exposing your bets for a longer period of time?

Example: Place $25 on 5,9 $30 6/8 and buy $25 on 4,10 after a new come out roll point. Wait for second roll. If 4,5,6,8,9,20 you win $40 or $50 (4,10), scrape it and call all bets OFF until the 7 out comes.

New shooter, do it again.

A point-7 only has to hold off once every 5 shooters for it to be profitable even if on the 5th shooter the point-7 comes.

Flawed thinking?

/games/craps/number-of-rolls/

Based on the chart below, it shows an 88% chance of survival after 1 throw (preferably the point being established). It is not sexy nor will it win a ton of money, but wouldnt just chipping away at a 12% failure rate be more successful than exposing your bets for a longer period of time?

Example: Place $25 on 5,9 $30 6/8 and buy $25 on 4,10 after a new come out roll point. Wait for second roll. If 4,5,6,8,9,20 you win $40 or $50 (4,10), scrape it and call all bets OFF until the 7 out comes.

New shooter, do it again.

A point-7 only has to hold off once every 5 shooters for it to be profitable even if on the 5th shooter the point-7 comes.

Flawed thinking?

/games/craps/number-of-rolls/

September 17th, 2019 at 2:44:39 PM
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certainly.Quote:sharpshooter201Flawed thinking?

This has been tried way back since at least 1984 and I even tried it in 1998.

Been calculated/simulated many many times too.

cant dent the house edge, even for 1 roll.

I think (I know he can) M Bluejay can code this up real quick and add it to his craps simulator list.

what happens when the 1st roll is a 2,3,11 or 12. you do not win

not counting those

you only win 80% of the time (24/30) 1 bet

and 20% of the time you lose all 6 bets

what part of the math do you NOT get?

next

Last edited by: 7craps on Sep 17, 2019

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

September 17th, 2019 at 2:54:06 PM
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Sharpshooter201 would certainly keep his dealer busy with his program. Unfortunately, neither his program nor any other program can completely eliminate all House Advantage.

Exposing his Place and Buy bets to danger for only a single roll of the dice does serve to minimize that H.A. For each of his wagers, the most likely outcome of that single roll would be a non-decision and full recovery of the wager.

Wizard has his comprehensive listing of H.A. per roll and per resolution at https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/

Exposing his Place and Buy bets to danger for only a single roll of the dice does serve to minimize that H.A. For each of his wagers, the most likely outcome of that single roll would be a non-decision and full recovery of the wager.

Wizard has his comprehensive listing of H.A. per roll and per resolution at https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/

"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)

September 17th, 2019 at 3:03:43 PM
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Asking for $160 across one time and then having them off for the duration after 1 roll is keeping the dealer busy? We are not pulling them down, just leave them up and turn them off to avoid that issue...

September 17th, 2019 at 3:25:45 PM
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you mean expected value.Quote:pwcrabbExposing his Place and Buy bets to danger for only a single roll of the dice does serve to minimize that H.A.

one can not change the house edge or even dent it by calling bets off, making different bets and looking at the HOT cocktail waitresses.

it looks to have a 1 roll combined house edge of -1/(805/18) =

-18/805 = 2.236%

HORRIBLE that is

Ah, house edge is for LOSERS

just bet right, stay hydrated, and call your bets off, do not get greedy

walk when you have a profit

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

September 17th, 2019 at 3:31:29 PM
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I understand. I am just referring to the Wizard's survival rate probability based on number of rolls. 88% survival rate after 2 rolls is a loser 1/10 shooters correct? This system only loses money if failure occurs greater than 1/5 shooters...

September 17th, 2019 at 4:37:07 PM
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Well you are flawed in your terminology, so I think the chances of further flaws are pretty high.Quote:sharpshooter201Please correct me if i'm flawed in my thinking.

Place bets, Buy bets and Odds bets are all different things.Quote:sharpshooter201if you waited for a new shooter, established a point, went out across the box for ONE ROLL ONLY and then called your odds off?

If you keep your vocabulary precise, you are likely to understand the math much better.

September 17th, 2019 at 4:54:18 PM
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the 'average' loss per roll = $1 (bets working)Quote:sharpshooter201This system only loses money if failure occurs greater than 1/5 shooters...

30 rolls per hour and your average loss per hour = $30

start with 1 million dollars and play til ruin or $2 million.

you will be ruined 100% of the time

aint good

this should say it best

the 'system' has a HIGH probability of a small win and a small probability of a LARGE loss.

winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)

September 17th, 2019 at 6:36:17 PM
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Quote:FleaStiffWell you are flawed in your terminology, so I think the chances of further flaws are pretty high.

Place bets, Buy bets and Odds bets are all different things.

If you keep your vocabulary precise, you are likely to understand the math much better.

Call off all bets is what I meant.

I understand the math just fine. I’m confused on the survival probability on the website. Does that 88% survival probability include any crap/yo-leven on roll 1 and roll 2?

September 17th, 2019 at 7:07:32 PM
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Got it. Thank you! Seemed to work last sesh. I ended up copying a gentleman who had a stack of pink chips in front of him. Went out for 1 roll, scraped his profit and waited.

Sounds like just luck.

Sounds like just luck.