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sharpshooter201
sharpshooter201
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September 17th, 2019 at 2:06:20 PM permalink
Please correct me if i'm flawed in my thinking. Based on the probability of survival as posted on the Wizard of Odds, would it be overall profitable if you waited for a new shooter, established a point, went out across the box for ONE ROLL ONLY and then called your odds off? After one win, then wait for a new shooter to be established and do it again?

Based on the chart below, it shows an 88% chance of survival after 1 throw (preferably the point being established). It is not sexy nor will it win a ton of money, but wouldnt just chipping away at a 12% failure rate be more successful than exposing your bets for a longer period of time?

Example: Place $25 on 5,9 $30 6/8 and buy $25 on 4,10 after a new come out roll point. Wait for second roll. If 4,5,6,8,9,20 you win $40 or $50 (4,10), scrape it and call all bets OFF until the 7 out comes.

New shooter, do it again.

A point-7 only has to hold off once every 5 shooters for it to be profitable even if on the 5th shooter the point-7 comes.

Flawed thinking?

/games/craps/number-of-rolls/
7craps
7craps
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September 17th, 2019 at 2:44:39 PM permalink
Quote: sharpshooter201

Flawed thinking?

certainly.
This has been tried way back since at least 1984 and I even tried it in 1998.
Been calculated/simulated many many times too.

cant dent the house edge, even for 1 roll.

I think (I know he can) M Bluejay can code this up real quick and add it to his craps simulator list.

what happens when the 1st roll is a 2,3,11 or 12. you do not win

not counting those
you only win 80% of the time (24/30) 1 bet
and 20% of the time you lose all 6 bets

what part of the math do you NOT get?

next
Last edited by: 7craps on Sep 17, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
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September 17th, 2019 at 2:54:06 PM permalink
Sharpshooter201 would certainly keep his dealer busy with his program. Unfortunately, neither his program nor any other program can completely eliminate all House Advantage.

Exposing his Place and Buy bets to danger for only a single roll of the dice does serve to minimize that H.A. For each of his wagers, the most likely outcome of that single roll would be a non-decision and full recovery of the wager.

Wizard has his comprehensive listing of H.A. per roll and per resolution at https://wizardofodds.com/games/craps/basics/
"I suppose I was mad. Every great genius is mad upon the subject in which he is greatest. The unsuccessful madman is disgraced and called a lunatic." Fitz-James O'Brien, The Diamond Lens (1858)
sharpshooter201
sharpshooter201
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7craps
September 17th, 2019 at 3:03:43 PM permalink
Asking for $160 across one time and then having them off for the duration after 1 roll is keeping the dealer busy? We are not pulling them down, just leave them up and turn them off to avoid that issue...
7craps
7craps
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September 17th, 2019 at 3:25:45 PM permalink
Quote: pwcrabb

Exposing his Place and Buy bets to danger for only a single roll of the dice does serve to minimize that H.A.

you mean expected value.
one can not change the house edge or even dent it by calling bets off, making different bets and looking at the HOT cocktail waitresses.

it looks to have a 1 roll combined house edge of -1/(805/18) =
-18/805 = 2.236%
HORRIBLE that is

Ah, house edge is for LOSERS
just bet right, stay hydrated, and call your bets off, do not get greedy
walk when you have a profit
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
sharpshooter201
sharpshooter201
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September 17th, 2019 at 3:31:29 PM permalink
I understand. I am just referring to the Wizard's survival rate probability based on number of rolls. 88% survival rate after 2 rolls is a loser 1/10 shooters correct? This system only loses money if failure occurs greater than 1/5 shooters...
FleaStiff
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September 17th, 2019 at 4:37:07 PM permalink
Quote: sharpshooter201

Please correct me if i'm flawed in my thinking.

Well you are flawed in your terminology, so I think the chances of further flaws are pretty high.

Quote: sharpshooter201

if you waited for a new shooter, established a point, went out across the box for ONE ROLL ONLY and then called your odds off?

Place bets, Buy bets and Odds bets are all different things.

If you keep your vocabulary precise, you are likely to understand the math much better.
7craps
7craps
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September 17th, 2019 at 4:54:18 PM permalink
Quote: sharpshooter201

This system only loses money if failure occurs greater than 1/5 shooters...

the 'average' loss per roll = $1 (bets working)
30 rolls per hour and your average loss per hour = $30

start with 1 million dollars and play til ruin or $2 million.
you will be ruined 100% of the time
aint good

this should say it best
the 'system' has a HIGH probability of a small win and a small probability of a LARGE loss.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
sharpshooter201
sharpshooter201
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September 17th, 2019 at 6:36:17 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

Well you are flawed in your terminology, so I think the chances of further flaws are pretty high.

Place bets, Buy bets and Odds bets are all different things.

If you keep your vocabulary precise, you are likely to understand the math much better.



Call off all bets is what I meant.

I understand the math just fine. Iím confused on the survival probability on the website. Does that 88% survival probability include any crap/yo-leven on roll 1 and roll 2?
sharpshooter201
sharpshooter201
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September 17th, 2019 at 7:07:32 PM permalink
Got it. Thank you! Seemed to work last sesh. I ended up copying a gentleman who had a stack of pink chips in front of him. Went out for 1 roll, scraped his profit and waited.

Sounds like just luck.
MaxxMQ
MaxxMQ
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September 17th, 2019 at 9:06:17 PM permalink
Yeah, thanks for sharing your thoughts on that one.
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