Are people that naive to believe that there is a system to beat the casino games?
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Only live poker and sports betting are the only form of games where you can use skill to give yourself advantage but even those are hard work and grind.
Positive expectation play exists and many folks here make good money. But none of that fits the common definition of systems betting.
Systems that only involve changing the bet size without other knowledge and or other changes will fail.
from what I understand a system that works is no longer considered a system but a method.Quote: DRichAs gamefreak alludes to, you have to understand the difference between systems. Card counting is a system that works, Martindale is not.
Systems that only involve changing the bet size without other knowledge and or other changes will fail.
indeed. Apart from a slight advantage from BJ card counting, Systems per se, such as progressives, money management, hit and run and hot streaks etc are all of zero financial value, though they may add extra amusement value. *Quote: gamerfreakIt depends on your definition of a system.
Positive expectation play exists and many folks here make good money. But none of that fits the common definition of systems betting.
However, there are some real and exploitable opportunities in the careless or reckless ways that some casinos and their marketing managers, operate. Enough to be a career for some players. Surprisingly, there are sometimes massive opportunities with life spans that may extend from minutes to years. Don't expect those in the know to reveal these opportunities except at a superficial level after they are closed down.
* Some members vocally insist that they whup the casinos with hit and run and streak betting. Heck, one guy "knows random" so well that he used to suggest he could
whup roulette, though he's less vocal on that theme nowadays.
Exponents of mathematically unsound strategies have their posts derided by others, often robustly and even often rudely.
Quote: OnceDearindeed. Apart from a slight advantage from BJ card counting, Systems per se, such as progressives, money management, hit and run and hot streaks etc are all of zero financial value, though they may add extra amusement value. *
However, there are some real and exploitable opportunities in the careless or reckless ways that some casinos and their marketing managers, operate. Enough to be a career for some players. Surprisingly, there are sometimes massive opportunities with life spans that may extend from minutes to years. Don't expect those in the know to reveal these opportunities except at a superficial level after they are closed down.
* Some members vocally insist that they whup the casinos with hit and run and streak betting. Heck, one guy "knows random" so well that he used to suggest he could
whup roulette, though he's less vocal on that theme nowadays.
Exponents of mathematically unsound strategies have their posts derided by others, often robustly and even often rudely.
Math.
What is it good for?
Absolutely nothing. Say it again.
statistics = LOLQuote: winningwizardAll you guys need is a basic understanding of statistics to get this.
Mark Twain, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
When an established, but rather lucky member suggests to a newbie member and all newbies who may read it, that he follows a rubbish, losing strategy then that matters. It really matter.Quote: MDawgNothing matters but results.
It's totally academic that you have had previous (unbelievable) good luck with that strategy.
It's a bit like a previously destitute person who became a million dollar lottery winner suggesting that poor folks should spend all their worldly wealth on lottery tickets. It does a great disservice to those poor folks.
This forum does not support such malice, mischief or ignorance, whichever it is, whether wilful or not.
Thank's Tom, for what I interpret as a bit of satire.Quote: TomGThere are certain people who are able to profit off games with negative expected value by using higher level math concepts, such as "hit-and-run," "discipline," and "quit while ahead." I know this is true because they provide well documented data that shows they have won a lot of money at casino games over their lifetimes.
Forgive me if I'm wrong and you truly believe that stream of mistruths.
Quote: TomGThere are certain people who are able to profit off games with negative expected value by using higher level math concepts, such as "hit-and-run," "discipline," and "quit while ahead." I know this is true because they provide well documented data that shows they have won a lot of money at casino games over their lifetimes.
I would add “pressing your bet when on a hot streak”.
Quote: MDawgNothing matters but results.
Damn, I paid good money for my "Probability" DVDs from The Great Courses. I put the first one in my laptop, and all I got were big block letters saying, "Nothing matters but results." I tried them all, and same damned phrase from each one. No music, even. What's most disappointing -- I paid billions for them.
P.S. This concludes my 20th post. I am therefore theoretically eligible to post a link to my blog, which I will do after returning from picking up my new office chair. Salutations to acquaintances Axelwolf and Boz. A salute to Once Dear, who appears to have a flair for effortless writing. I'd like to borrow that sometime. And I didn't even get banned by Babs. I guess not enough snark.
Quote: MDawgNothing matters but results.
Care to post proof of any? Other than your nonstop prattling.
In the history of science and philosophy, this type of assertion is categorized as pre-rational or ‘magical’ thought.Quote: MDawgNothing matters but results.
In Trumpland, this is called business. Caveat: you must forget your bankruptcyes and boast only on successes.
Quote: redietzDamn, I paid good money for my "Probability" DVDs from The Great Courses. I put the first one in my laptop, and all I got were big block letters saying, "Nothing matters but results." I tried them all, and same damned phrase from each one. No music, even. What's most disappointing -- I paid billions for them.
P.S. This concludes my 20th post. I am therefore theoretically eligible to post a link to my blog, which I will do after returning from picking up my new office chair. Salutations to acquaintances Axelwolf and Boz. A salute to Once Dear, who appears to have a flair for effortless writing. I'd like to borrow that sometime. And I didn't even get banned by Babs. I guess not enough snark.
Re: your PS. That's what happens when you go believing bad publicity from people who burned bridges rather than finding out for yourself. You come here, you discuss things intelligently, you are made welcome, even get thanks for a good post here and there (in case you didn't notice.) So welcome, redietz.
I'm sure your link to your blog will be welcome, too, as long as you're not advertising there or getting paid for clicks. If so, please PM Zuga or Wizard for permission/ advertising rates before posting the link. Thank you.
Quote: TomGThere are certain people who are able to profit off games with negative expected value by using higher level math concepts, such as "hit-and-run," "discipline," and "quit while ahead." I know this is true because they provide well documented data that shows they have won a lot of money at casino games over their lifetimes.
You forgot “hydration” in your list of higher level math concepts.
I’m sad I didn’t get a shoutout from redietz.
He only tries to sell his picks (and naked pic's) to Rob Singer.Quote: beachbumbabsRe: your PS. That's what happens when you go believing bad publicity from people who burned bridges rather than finding out for yourself. You come here, you discuss things intelligently, you are made welcome, even get thanks for a good post here and there (in case you didn't notice.) So welcome, redietz.
I'm sure your link to your blog will be welcome, too, as long as you're not advertising there or getting paid for clicks. If so, please PM Zuga or Wizard for permission/ advertising rates before posting the link. Thank you.
Quote: wildgoeYeah, other than professional card counters, there is no way to beat the casino over the long run...
But if you do beat the casinos over the long run...
They will fear you.
Take me for example.
I am the most feared AP on the East Coast
I am so feared even people I dont know are assumed to be part of my team (discovery paperwork submitted including banned players I never met being attributed as associates of mine)
Lol, welcome to the forum.Quote: wildgoeYeah, other than professional card counters, there is no way to beat the casino over the long run...
But what you said is oh so terribly wrong! It's as big a misconception as 'Craps can be beaten by disciplined money management'
But it's the casinos that CAN be beaten. Very much so.
The GAMES can generally not be beaten, except for Blackjack.
E,g. Casino X offers a 10% loss rebate on all losses in a 48 hour period on Blackjack. Advantage players would be all over that casino and would make a killing. Casino X might sack the marketing guy and not make that mistake again for a while. So the AP's go to Casino Y that just took on a new marketing guy ( previously from casino X ) and they make another killing. Round and around, onwards and upwards.
There absolutely are members here who make a good full time living from such exploits. It's easier money than some others make at Blackjack.
Quote: winningwizardCome on....how can someone believe that there is a system to beat any casino sinos would go out of business. Casino games have negative expected value and you would lose. It should be for pure entertainment, not a money making strategy. All you guys need is a basic understanding of statistics to get this.
Only live poker and sports betting are the only form of games where you can use skill to give yourself advantage but even those are hard work and grind.
That is generally good advice for most people.
But, this statement is not true, depending on your definition of system. A simple example is counting BJ, which can be classified as a system to beat a game that is not poker or sports betting.
There are other AP opportunities, that others have stated, such as taking advantage of loss rebates and special promos certain days which can make certain games +EV.
If your statement simply refers to betting systems such as martingale, etc, where your bets are changed based on past bet results (and not anything else, count etc...).... then it is a correct statement.
Quote: darkoz
I am so feared even people I dont know are assumed to be part of my team (discovery paperwork submitted including banned players I never met being attributed as associates of mine)
That is really common and doesn’t mean much of anything. Looking at surveillance databse profiles of the table AP’s I know fairly well about 1/3rd of the “known associates” listed are not or never were associated, if two known players seen in a casino at same time they assume that etc.
Quote: mcallister3200That is really common and doesn’t mean much of anything. Looking at surveillance databse profiles of the table AP’s I know fairly well about 1/3rd of the “known associates” listed are not or never were associated, if two known players seen in a casino at same time they assume that etc.
Granted.
This "known associate" was seen a month after I was in the casino. He was just doing something similar to what I do.
Never met the guy
Quote: winningwizardCome on....how can someone believe that there is a system to beat any casino sinos would go out of business. Casino games have negative expected value and you would lose. It should be for pure entertainment, not a money making strategy. All you guys need is a basic understanding of statistics to get this.
Only live poker and sports betting are the only form of games where you can use skill to give yourself advantage but even those are hard work and grind.
There is one system and that is to extend your legs towards the floor and place each one flat down. Next place one leg in front of the other til you reach the exit and then enter your car. If you won money then that system works right?
Quote: winningwizardCome on....how can someone believe that there is a system to beat any casino sinos would go out of business. Casino games have negative expected value and you would lose. It should be for pure entertainment, not a money making strategy. All you guys need is a basic understanding of statistics to get this.
Only live poker and sports betting are the only form of games where you can use skill to give yourself advantage but even those are hard work and grind.
There is one system and that is to extend your legs towards the floor and place each one flat down. Next place one leg in front of the other til you reach the exit and then enter your car. If you won money then that system works right?
Quote: gamerfreakIt depends on your definition of a system.
Positive expectation play exists and many folks here make good money. But none of that fits the common definition of systems betting.
Even using the traditional definition of a system, because there is a slight correlation between wins/losses and what cards were likelier than not to come out, you absolutely can beat a full pay single deck blackjack game with a 1-1-1-1-300 negative progression. Good luck getting that fifth hand in ;)
I made one bet at a blackjack table for the table minimum and then tried to make a fifty dollar bet. Dealer pushed it back and said you can't suddenly change your betting level. ONE hand. Did he think I was able to discern some hot deck after one hand? I was the only one at the table. What did he think the count was after one hand?
I have some methods which I use which I think are more fun and maybe you could say it's a "system" but they don't give you an edge but rather it's just fun to play a certain way. For me, playing 1 dollar a spin on slots for 12 hours a day is a horrible way to spend my time. I would prefer to start off betting 10 dollars and try to turn that into a lot of money by raising my bet progressively. If I go to the casino prepared to lose 1000 dollars I would prefer to go big or go home rather than spend all day there trying to win money 1 dollar a spin!
Quote: darkoz
Take me for example.
I am the most feared AP on the East Coast
Hey Darkoz, I'm afraid of you and all I've done is read this forum.
Quote: bobbartopHey Darkoz, I'm afraid of you and all I've done is read this forum.
Thanks, lol.
Unless you are a casino you dont have to fear
I know you know this, but just to reiterate. Many games can be beaten "straight up": Some Video poker, some banking slots, some progressives( any game with a progressive has the potential to become positive) , some table games where someone has miscalculated the math/rules/procedures or even a printing error.Quote: OnceDear
But it's the casinos that CAN be beaten. Very much so.
The GAMES can generally not be beaten, except for Blackjack.
Anything has a possibility of being beaten if it has a bug, glitch or some error/mistake involved.
NO BETTING SYSTEM CAN TURN A NEGATIVE NUMBER INTO A POSITIVE ONE, therefore you cannot beat it in the long run.
Everything mentioned above can be broken down and calculated, if the calculation doesn't show hey positive return then you won't be able to beat that game the long run no matter what system you use.
I really don't understand why that's such a hard concept for anyone to understand?
Quote: AxelWolf
I really don't understand why that's such a hard concept for anyone to understand?
People believe it because the games can be beaten despite negative expectations.
BJ has counting, which is the obvious answer.
Roulette can be beaten if you can find a biased wheel (which has been done).
Video poker can be beaten if the pay table is flawed. Most AP players know that.
Craps: well there's dice control, which I don't believe in, although there are those who swear by it.
You can gain an edge on any of these games by working deals with the casino and outfox them with properly structured rules and discounts on losses. Don Johnson is the living example of that.
Does coming out ahead net when you consider comps into the equation as well, such as show-up money, free cruises, etc. count ? That's a judgement call.
Despite what the math might say on paper, the games can be beaten in the real world. That's why people don't embrace the concept.
You're preaching to the choir. In this very thread I said practically any game can be beaten under the right conditions and circumstances. Sometimes the game itself is beatable and sometimes you need extra given out by the casino.Quote: LovecompsPeople believe it because the games can be beaten despite negative expectations.
BJ has counting, which is the obvious answer.
Roulette can be beaten if you can find a biased wheel (which has been done).
Video poker can be beaten if the pay table is flawed. Most AP players know that.
Craps: well there's dice control, which I don't believe in, although there are those who swear by it.
You can gain an edge on any of these games by working deals with the casino and outfox them with properly structured rules and discounts on losses. Don Johnson is the living example of that.
Does coming out ahead net when you consider comps into the equation as well, such as show-up money, free cruises, etc. count ? That's a judgement call.
Despite what the math might say on paper, the games can be beaten in the real world. That's why people don't embrace the concept.
All that stuff can be added in and calculated it might not be precise, however, you can get a good estimate and be confident the numbers are above 100%. IF the numbers add up to over 100% you can beat the casino/ game. (I have yet to see anyone come up anything solid when it comes to DI). We are talking about people who use a betting system. Most of them will even admit the numbers are negative, however, they somehow think they're betting system can overcome negative numbers and allow them to win in the long run.
Math skillsQuote: AxelWolfI really don't understand why that's such a hard concept for anyone to understand?
My math skills are worse than my spelling, sentence structure and punctuation, yet, I have no problem understanding that simple concept. Perhaps, it's a logic skills.Quote: Ace2Math skills
There is no one here whose math skills were worse than mine. That was true even before recent medical traumatic brain pressure events. Yet I understand about "the short end of the stick". It is still fun to gamble and that short end of the stick at least keeps you in the game long enough for Lady Variance to smile upon you from time to time.Quote: AxelWolfMy math skills are worse than my spelling, sentence structure and punctuation, yet, I have no problem understanding that simple concept. Perhaps, it's a logic skills.
We don't feel guilty taking an occasional flyer on the lottery but we don't consider it anything but a high-priced long shot.
We may try to exploit a flashing dealer from time to time or a must-hit bonus but overall we all know its a House Edge game because that is how the house makes its money and pays for the expensive booze and the cocktail waitresses.
It is fun and we just might wind up in the plus column.
