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MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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May 12th, 2019 at 1:55:09 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

How does one go about being unbanned from playing blackjack? Do the casinos assume your skills have declined enough for them to get their money back? Did your lawyer draw up a contract ? This information might be even more valuable than your leave while ahead doctrine.


I tried the hardhead approach, right after the ban complained to Gaming Commission, etc. No response, didn't work.

I stayed away two years, came back, started doing my thing again, jumping between table min and max at BJ, a pit boss recognized me, they had another chat with me, backed me off. Then I started playing BJ at another casino owned by the same company, and no one said anything. Eventually I became friends with the Director of Table Games who had implemented the ban, who by then had switched over to the other casino where I was now playing, and whenever I would play and he was around he would chuckle and tell the pit bosses that this is so and so, he likes to jump his bet between table min and max, but he never again stepped in to stop me. Anyway, the next big win I had at his casino over six figures was at Baccarat and he definitely didn't like that but nothing he could say or do about it, as it wasn't BJ.

What's strange is that I did eventually go back to jumping the bet between table min and table max at BJ at the exact same casino where I was banned, coming in occasionally and clocking them at BJ for $20K (not huge wins, not nearly as big as the win that had gotten me banned) and immediately leaving, and no one said anything about it. The comment on my computer file that advised the pit bosses on what to watch for somehow got deleted, and it was a bizarre comment anyway that I don't think made sense, referring to keeping me from betting more than 3X between bets, which is why I think it got deleted.

It's now two decades or so later, and the company that owned the casinos in question, no longer owns them. No one has said anything. But these days I don't jump between table min and max anymore anyway, my spread is much less.
MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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May 12th, 2019 at 5:33:10 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm thinking there's a way that works very well for you, MDawg, and you've discussed it here and before. Which is terrific that you enjoy what you're doing.

I think, though, you've misunderstood some of the others who post here. I don't know any APs who play forever. And I think you're misrepresenting their side of the conversation.

The point they are usually making is that, mathematically, and In The Long Run, your results will conform roughly to the HE of the game. In THAT sense, it's all one long session, not a bunch of hit-and-run opportunities.

Discipline helps, and money management helps, and perhaps in your lifetime you will experience enough positive variance that you will be up overall. If so, fantastic. But you're still describing a system dependent on Gambler's Fallacy.

And that's what the pushback you receive on here is - just saying you have not got an OVERALL positive expectation with what you're doing. And the casinos know that, too. It's why many high-rolling winners are encouraged to come back.

The House knows the math. Any winnings you take this time, they consider more of an interest-free loan. Because you'll be back sometime, and the HE is always working.


Beach - thanks for being, as always, diplomatic.

During the years I spent and lately continue to spend at the high limit tables, I've seen and gotten to know pretty well many players who played at my level and many who played at a much higher level. I became intimately aware of exactly the sums these high rollers were losing, and it may not be explained away with the house advantage. I've seen a player show up on a Friday with five million and a week later he's barely able to play his Baccarat with more than five hundred a hand. I saw this one girl show up with a million and five days laters she's in the same unwashed now wrinkly clothes playing with what's left - which was, very little, of that million. Neither of these players ever showed again so I may assume that they just plain lost.

Pit bosses have told me about players they know very well who show up and lose millions, and are back some weeks later, and do exactly the same again, and keep this losing cycle going.

I also know of various Baccarat players both inside and outside of the casino (meaning, people who became friends) who have just plain kept losing. A LOT.

In all of these high roller big loser cases, the sums these players have dumped may not be explained by the house advantage, these guys just keep playing until they lose it all. The house advantage times their average bet would not explain their losing so much.

SO, if it is possible to lose, consistently, far more than 50% of your Bacc. bets, then why do you disbelieve that it might be possible to win, consistently, more than 50%? The odds are being defied every day in Vegas where people are dumping their entire bankrolls when the theoretical loss is but a fraction of what they end up actually losing.

I get it - you're saying that over time things even out. I took a lot of years of math in high school and college, beyond just Calculus, I get it. You are right - in theory.
But, if you keep playing until you lose it all every time, nothing is going to even out. By the same token, playing until you win and then cutting the session short is different from playing every single available session.

Look at it like a ticker tape of a stock streaming by. Let's say that the stock starts the day at 1905 and ends it at 1904. So that's it, it dropped a dollar end of story. But wait, over the course of the day the stock fluctuated by fifty points down and up and then down and up again, maybe more than twice, maybe many times. Is it possible for a stock trader to catch some of those runs, on the right side, and make money, even though the end shift was negligible? Yes! I do that all the time, when I trade. Do my trades even out to where by the end of the year there are an equal number of winners versus losers? Absolutely not, not by a long shot! I have booked but one losing trade over the past two years, and that is represented by thousands and thousands of stock trades.

So consider the flow of the cards like a ticker tape. Does anyone REALLY know what direction a stock is going to move in? Of course not. Does anyone REALLY know what is going to happen in that next hand of Baccarat? Of course not. And yet, I've been able to predict stock movements and card flows well enough in my lifetime to be able to snip a winning segment (or two or three winning segments) enough times when the pattern is good, and walk away ahead.

Anyway, what I am saying is that there are definitely streaks, and snipping a win out of a card flow streak is no different from snipping a win out of a stock's daily or weekly or monthly movement. Both sometimes follow a discernible pattern, and even if they didn't, still it would make sense to stop after sufficient wins in that session versus keep playing until a net session loss.

Anyway, not seeking an answer. Just tossing it out there.
Last edited by: MDawg on May 12, 2019
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Forager
May 12th, 2019 at 5:54:55 PM permalink
General rule of thumb taught to me by an old Buffalo Soldier- If you can't get your point across in two sentences, don't bother. You don't have one.
Gialmere
Gialmere
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May 12th, 2019 at 6:06:05 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

But - what works for me, is to win, and then leave.


I'll leave it to the APrs here to discuss the advantage merits. I think, however, it's an interesting dilemma for the red chip recreational player.

Imagine you are a rec player who drives to Vegas two or three times a year for some weekend gambling. Your bankroll is $1000 which you subdivide for the games you intend to play.

On Friday you start with UTH ($10 ante & $5 trips) hoping to win $200 but budgeted to lose $400. After an hour of ups and downs you find yourself just shy of your goal. Then, on next hand, you not only beat the dealer but hit a straight flush.

Bada bing! Just like that you're $700 ahead--enough money to both pay for the weekend and leave you a few hundred extra. But now what? You came (and already payed) to stay all weekend, and it's still early Friday evening. Not that this is a bad problem to have but, any thoughts?
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
MDawg
MDawg
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May 12th, 2019 at 6:15:26 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

That Canadian mattress maker in Theroux's documentary, he was ahead $50K at roulette right after arrival, but in an Owning Mahoney-esque statement, declared that he hadn't flown six hours just to play twenty minutes.


We know what happened to him, both by the end of that trip, and in life. Not pretty.
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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Thanks for this post from:
Gialmere
May 12th, 2019 at 8:49:58 PM permalink
Quote: Gialmere

I'll leave it to the APrs here to discuss the advantage merits. I think, however, it's an interesting dilemma for the red chip recreational player.

Imagine you are a rec player who drives to Vegas two or three times a year for some weekend gambling. Your bankroll is $1000 which you subdivide for the games you intend to play.

On Friday you start with UTH ($10 ante & $5 trips) hoping to win $200 but budgeted to lose $400. After an hour of ups and downs you find yourself just shy of your goal. Then, on next hand, you not only beat the dealer but hit a straight flush.

Bada bing! Just like that you're $700 ahead--enough money to both pay for the weekend and leave you a few hundred extra. But now what? You came (and already payed) to stay all weekend, and it's still early Friday evening. Not that this is a bad problem to have but, any thoughts?



Divide your bankroll into daily amounts. If you budget losing $300 for Friday and instead get back to your room with $700, bank it. If you don't have the discipline, you can mail it to yourself. Lock in your gains from Friday and play Saturday as you originally planned.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
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May 12th, 2019 at 11:03:47 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I'm thinking there's a way that works very well for you, MDawg, and you've discussed it here and before. Which is terrific that you enjoy what you're doing.

I think, though, you've misunderstood some of the others who post here. I don't know any APs who play forever. And I think you're misrepresenting their side of the conversation.

The point they are usually making is that, mathematically, and In The Long Run, your results will conform roughly to the HE of the game. In THAT sense, it's all one long session, not a bunch of hit-and-run opportunities.

Discipline helps, and money management helps, and perhaps in your lifetime you will experience enough positive variance that you will be up overall. If so, fantastic. But you're still describing a system dependent on Gambler's Fallacy.

And that's what the pushback you receive on here is - just saying you have not got an OVERALL positive expectation with what you're doing. And the casinos know that, too. It's why many high-rolling winners are encouraged to come back.

The House knows the math. Any winnings you take this time, they consider more of an interest-free loan. Because you'll be back sometime, and the HE is always working.

When the OP said "For whatever reason some on here advocate just playing 7/24, state that if you are an advantage player that the only thing stopping you from cashing in is lack of play hours." I was going to ask him to quote who and where that was being said, and in what type of context. I said just said to myself....Ah,FK it! This is all a bunch of HOGWASH. Most people have no clue what and how AP's operate and they have no real clue what AP is. You either get it, or you don't.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
billryan
billryan
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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May 12th, 2019 at 11:07:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

When the OP said "For whatever reason some on here advocate just playing 7/24, state that if you are an advantage player that the only thing stopping you from cashing in is lack of play hours." I was going to ask him to quote who and where that was being said, and in what type of context. I said just said to myself....Ah,FK it! This is all a bunch of HOGWASH.



I think forum rules dictate we salute diverse opinions and alternate facts.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
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May 13th, 2019 at 2:02:28 AM permalink
Quote: MDawg

Anyway, not seeking an answer. Just tossing it out there.

Toss it back. It's bull5h1t.
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
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May 13th, 2019 at 2:19:54 AM permalink
Quote: billryan

I think forum rules dictate we salute diverse opinions and alternate facts.

We should disparage, and seek to counter dangerous advice while respecting the misguided member that posts them.
I don't doubt that MDawg and a few other members have made many big wagers and even consistently won. It's not even statistically odd or unreasonable.

MDawg says he knows, or has watched many of his peers lose big: Bigger than can just be explained by house edge. I assert that within his circle of peers he is simply the one looking out from the lucky side of the variance chart to the unlucky side.

MDawg does mention self discipline and the tendency of some players to press on through some wins and eventually, or rather soon, go bust. On that score he may have a point, but one which he's not fully appreciating. Players that win big early in their session ( and who Mdawg would advise to walk away ) very often get cocky and proceed to bet bigger and bigger.When they quadruple their $1,000 buy in in a matter of minutes, they might double or quadrupal their wager size. If they win further, they increase their bets again. By over-betting their bankroll like that, going bust in that session is almost guaranteed. This supports MDawgs idea of 'Hit and run', but only because his hit and run discipline reduces the average bet and number of bets.
Last edited by: OnceDear on May 13, 2019
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.

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