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MDawg
MDawg
Joined: Sep 27, 2018
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May 12th, 2019 at 10:19:50 AM permalink
As Steve Cyr has put it:
"There’s two types of players

Ones that are here for the cost of entertainment, and you love those guys, win or lose doesn’t matter, they’re just here to have fun,

then there’s a guy coming here to win we gotta watch that guy there’s definitely two types of players, you know a guy that wins Friday night, okay if he’s a steamer he’s going to steam probably blow his winnings and by Sunday owe me money, a guy’s that disciplined [wins] Friday will go home Saturday. So, there’s definitely two types of players."

As Dave Berns added:
"The one thing the casinos hate about high rollers, are high rollers who are what they call hit and run high rollers, someone who comes in, gambles for a couple of hours, wins some money, and leaves."


I've posted in many different places about how, after playing at very high levels for years, years ago, I eventually figured out that what worked for me was exactly this type of disciplined hit and run play. Because life intervened, was too busy with new businesses and family, I stopped while ahead, took a long break from gambling (over a decade), and returned to play in 2018. Since then, at least so far, no losing trips whatsoever. I am that second type of player Cyr describes, disciplined, who plays until he wins, and then - leaves while ahead. I don't mean, obviously, that I stop when I am ahead five bucks. But depending on what my average bet is (these days not so very high, around $300. with high bets around $2000. (back then my average bet was more like $3000., with high bets of $15000.)), and how the cards have been flowing, I will make a good decision about whether I have won enough for that session, and then, leave.

For whatever reason some on here advocate just playing 7/24, state that if you are an advantage player that the only thing stopping you from cashing in is lack of play hours. But even if this were true, play too long as an advantage player and you get banned (this is exactly what happened to me before - effectively banned from BJ for a couple years).

Or they say that stopping while ahead doesn't matter or doesn't work.

But - what works for me, is to win, and then leave. Or if I'm not winning, cut my losses and come back another day, sometimes even after resting a full day and returning 48 hours later. I can't tell you how important this is. If the cards are running bad, I learned the hard way years ago that I could come back from a say, $8000. loss easily whereas if I kept playing to minus twenty and the next day I won ten, I'd still be negative. When you are losing there is more going on than just a bad flow of cards - you also tend to lose focus, you tend to lose discipline. Hence the need to take a long break when the cards are really running against you, and you return with the proper focus on a new, independent session, versus simply playing "catch up." Even if you are a robot and nothing affects you, still, why keep playing into a deeper and deeper hole when the cards are running against you? When I am rested, concentrating, playing disciplined, it is very hard for the casinos to beat me. Countless pit bosses and dealers have told me this, that because I don't play with emotion, and am disciplined, that I will always do fine. And I have done fine. I am that second type of player.

I also wrote this, as background to this thread, in response to whether there is such a thing as a "streak":
Quote: MDawg

In probability each event has an independent likelihood - whatever happened the hand (or spin or roll) before in a game of chance has no bearing on what happens the next hand.

However, let's consider a game of cards where the cards are set in the deck, in this case the positive count or flow of the cards, whatever you may call it, may increase the likelihood of a win, and in such a case, there might be an over all greater likelihood of wins, and hence also a greater likelihood of a winning streak. Everyone agrees on at least that, such as in for example the game of BJ with reference to a positive count.

If I were to take a deck of cards and stack them carefully so that in a two player game of BJ the dealer lost ten hands in a row, then the unknowing dealer coming into the game might think that he has the usual house advantage plus a 50% chance of winning each hand, when in reality, he has a 0% chance of winning ten hands, and I have a 100% chance of winning each hand and a 100% chance of a ten win streak. Although no one "stacks the deck" which would be cheating, this is essentially what happens in a card game streak whether Baccarat or BJ, the cards have been arranged so that one side will win for a number of hands. Recognizing that a streak is in progress and pushing your bet, is something that winning gamblers are able to take advantage of. By pushing your bet no matter when the streak ends you are coming out ahead. At a minimum, getting up and leaving after a good streak, may work too. Now this last paragraph of mine contains ideas that not everyone here will agree on, but my play has worked for me.


Quote: MDawg

For whatever reason my win/losses so far at all the casinos since 2018 are wins, no losses. And as you may know from reading my posts I took a long break from gambling, so my prior play was over a decade ago, and there over all, ahead. Back then too, got banned for a while from BJ, which if you're an expert, shouldn't have to tell you what that means. Luckily after a couple years the ban was somehow forgotten as casino ownerships changed, and not taken up at other casinos.



Don't waste time commenting on what others have stated here. We are set in our ways. Instead, just tell us - Which type of player are you?
Last edited by: MDawg on May 12, 2019
pwcrabb
pwcrabb
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May 12th, 2019 at 11:51:13 AM permalink
Excellent example of the sharp high roller: Australian publisher Kerry Packer, R.I.P. He would approach a blackjack table with the plan to either win immediately or leave. Before sitting, his sample size of dealt hands was ten or fewer. Depending upon results, he would then attack or flee. His bets were in four to six figures. His wins could affect the quarterly results of the house.

Sadly, he also played roulette.
MaxPen
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OnceDearForagerRSHunterhill
May 12th, 2019 at 12:11:52 PM permalink
Quote: MDawg

As Steve Cyr has put it:
"There’s two types of players

Ones that are here for the cost of entertainment, and you love those guys, win or lose doesn’t matter, they’re just here to have fun,

then there’s a guy coming here to win we gotta watch that guy there’s definitely two types of players, you know a guy that wins Friday night, okay if he’s a steamer he’s going to steam probably blow his winnings and by Sunday owe me money, a guy’s that disciplined [wins] Friday will go home Saturday. So, there’s definitely two types of players."

As Dave Berns added:
"The one thing the casinos hate about high rollers, are high rollers who are what they call hit and run high rollers, someone who comes in, gambles for a couple of hours, wins some money, and leaves."


I've posted in many different places about how, after playing at very high levels for years, years ago, I eventually figured out that what worked for me was exactly this type of disciplined hit and run play. Because life intervened, was too busy with new businesses and family, I stopped while ahead, took a long break from gambling (over a decade), and returned to play in 2018. Since then, at least so far, no losing trips whatsoever. I am that second type of player Cyr describes, disciplined, who plays until he wins, and then - leaves while ahead. I don't mean, obviously, that I stop when I am ahead five bucks. But depending on what my average bet is (these days not so very high, around $300. with high bets around $2000. (back then my average bet was more like $3000., with high bets of $15000.)), and how the cards have been flowing, I will make a good decision about whether I have won enough for that session, and then, leave.

For whatever reason some on here advocate just playing 7/24, state that if you are an advantage player that the only thing stopping you from cashing in is lack of play hours. But even if this were true, play too long as an advantage player and you get banned (this is exactly what happened to me before - effectively banned from BJ for a couple years).

Or they say that stopping while ahead doesn't matter or doesn't work.

But - what works for me, is to win, and then leave. Or if I'm not winning, cut my losses and come back another day, sometimes even after resting a full day and returning 48 hours later. I can't tell you how important this is. If the cards are running bad, I learned the hard way years ago that I could come back from a say, $8000. loss easily whereas if I kept playing to minus twenty and the next day I won ten, I'd still be negative. When you are losing there is more going on than just a bad flow of cards - you also tend to lose focus, you tend to lose discipline. Hence the need to take a long break when the cards are really running against you, and you return with the proper focus on a new, independent session, versus simply playing "catch up." Even if you are a robot and nothing affects you, still, why keep playing into a deeper and deeper hole when the cards are running against you? When I am rested, concentrating, playing disciplined, it is very hard for the casinos to beat me. Countless pit bosses and dealers have told me this, that because I don't play with emotion, and am disciplined, that I will always do fine. And I have done fine. I am that second type of player.

I also wrote this, as background to this thread, in response to whether there is such a thing as a "streak":



Don't waste time commenting on what others have stated here. We are set in our ways. Instead, just tell us - Which type of player are you?



What a bunch of tripe.
"We defeated a very corrupt establishment and we kept our promise to the American people and it is driving them crazy. Today, our movement and our country are thriving. Their fraud has been exposed and the credibility of those who pushed this hoax is forever broken. And they have now got big problems" - Your President Trump
OnceDear
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OnceDear
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May 12th, 2019 at 12:30:43 PM permalink
Quote: MaxPen

What a bunch of tripe.


There are two types of gambler: The ones that are taken in by the gamblers' fallacy and those who are not.

Sadly, either type can be winners or losers over their gambling career. So, that makes 4 types.

Lifetime winners that believe mumbo jumbo do exist and some even post on this forum.
Bless 'em $:o)
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
billryan
billryan
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May 12th, 2019 at 12:54:03 PM permalink
How does one go about being unbanned from playing blackjack? Do the casinos assume your skills have declined enough for them to get their money back? Did your lawyer draw up a contract ? This information might be even more valuable than your leave while ahead doctrine.
PokerGrinder
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djatcbeachbumbabsMDawgAxelWolfRomes
May 12th, 2019 at 1:11:41 PM permalink
Hit and run, stay hydrated and a positive attitude are the keys to success.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
MaxPen
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PokerGrinder
May 12th, 2019 at 1:23:37 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Hit and run, stay hydrated and a positive attitude are the keys to success.



Oy Vey😀
"We defeated a very corrupt establishment and we kept our promise to the American people and it is driving them crazy. Today, our movement and our country are thriving. Their fraud has been exposed and the credibility of those who pushed this hoax is forever broken. And they have now got big problems" - Your President Trump
OnceDear
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PokerGrinderAxelWolf
May 12th, 2019 at 1:31:59 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Hit and run, stay hydrated and a positive attitude are the keys to success.

Discipline. Don't forget discipline. $:o)
If you are enjoying the game, you're already winning.
beachbumbabs
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MDawg
May 12th, 2019 at 1:42:04 PM permalink
I'm thinking there's a way that works very well for you, MDawg, and you've discussed it here and before. Which is terrific that you enjoy what you're doing.

I think, though, you've misunderstood some of the others who post here. I don't know any APs who play forever. And I think you're misrepresenting their side of the conversation.

The point they are usually making is that, mathematically, and In The Long Run, your results will conform roughly to the HE of the game. In THAT sense, it's all one long session, not a bunch of hit-and-run opportunities.

Discipline helps, and money management helps, and perhaps in your lifetime you will experience enough positive variance that you will be up overall. If so, fantastic. But you're still describing a system dependent on Gambler's Fallacy.

And that's what the pushback you receive on here is - just saying you have not got an OVERALL positive expectation with what you're doing. And the casinos know that, too. It's why many high-rolling winners are encouraged to come back.

The House knows the math. Any winnings you take this time, they consider more of an interest-free loan. Because you'll be back sometime, and the HE is always working.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Lovecomps
Lovecomps
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May 12th, 2019 at 1:49:37 PM permalink
There is a third kind of player, but from reading this I must be unique.

I play via my watch. I tell myself two hours and then leave when time is up win, lose, or draw. I'll do it twice a day to give them thier 4 hour daily comp time.
The best things in life are not free.

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