Cancellation DOES work
Quote: Bruceberger12Yes, you showed me a 10B loss,and thank you. However my version did not show a loss. Same W-L you provided, would have required only $14,400 to cover.
I am going to give up on this website tho. Everyone is just quoting each other. Systems don't work. My reply to that is the earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese. They can laugh if they want.
What gives me confidence is that I am able to play through bad runs.
Don’t let them get you down Bruce.
Baccarat has been around for over 2000 years. Sooner or later someone was going to find a way to beat it. Thousands have probably tried and failed , but that does not mean it’s isnt possible
I happen to believe that Bruce Berger12 and his cancellation system have finally cracked this code. Good luck and report back on how you’re choosing to spend your cash.
Quote: DeMangoIt really was a simple question, what is the variance of the La Bouchere system? Since the system wins by having a 40% or better winning decisions rate, the question is how much % of bankroll should be the initial bet. How many losses in a row can you survive? What would be the best starting line? Interesting questions that nobody is asking, never mind attempting to answer. Always the same worn out replies along the line of expected value and or house edge. Long run player wins 49.32% no? In this system that’s the way I would go, but other opportunities have come up and I never went down this road to possible perdition.
But if you win 49.32% of the time in the long run and lose the other 51.68% isnt that a long run loser?
Quote: DeMangoIt really was a simple question, what is the variance of the La Bouchere system? Since the system wins by having a 40% or better winning decisions rate, the question is how much % of bankroll should be the initial bet. How many losses in a row can you survive? What would be the best starting line? Interesting questions that nobody is asking, never mind attempting to answer. Always the same worn out replies along the line of expected value and or house edge. Long run player wins 49.32% no? In this system that’s the way I would go, but other opportunities have come up and I never went down this road to possible perdition.
This position isn’t without merit. People come to this site to vet systems and this is the wrong site for that.
For while with your system you only need to win 40% of decisions to win, the times you win will be less dollars than the times you lose so that unbalanced losses/wins will revert back to matching your negative EV in the long run.
That’s an interesting topic in itself or would make an interesting article here. And then when people come here to get a system, instead of the snarky replies, we could point the newcomer to a thoughtfully written article describing exactly why the system doesn’t achieve the aims of being a long term winner.
The article may even debate the merits of a system for increasing or decreasing variance (if that’s viewed as a goal by the player).
I’m not going to be the one to write the article but I would applaud the author.
Quote: DeMangoNo you only need to win about 40% of decisions.
Which means the system can also beat roulette playing red/black
Quote: unJonThis position isn’t without merit. People come to this site to vet systems and this is the wrong site for that.
For while with your system you only need to win 40% of decisions to win, the times you win will be less dollars than the times you lose so that unbalanced losses/wins will revert back to matching your negative EV in the long run.
That’s an interesting topic in itself or would make an interesting article here. And then when people come here to get a system, instead of the snarky replies, we could point the newcomer to a thoughtfully written article describing exactly why the system doesn’t achieve the aims of being a long term winner.
The article may even debate the merits of a system for increasing or decreasing variance (if that’s viewed as a goal by the player).
I’m not going to be the one to write the article but I would applaud the author.
Bolding above mine.
I don't think, in this case that's true. The vast majority of the time, you will win (if you win) a larger amount than you lost the previous hand. It goes down from there, in reverse progression, if you put together a streak of wins. If you are able to reach zero again, you will have won a net +10 units in the example given. You just have to have a large enough BR to play through the losses. But also not have such bad luck that you hit the table max or your BR max while getting them.
Quote: beachbumbabsQuote: unJonThis position isn’t without merit. People come to this site to vet systems and this is the wrong site for that.
For while with your system you only need to win 40% of decisions to win, the times you win will be less dollars than the times you lose so that unbalanced losses/wins will revert back to matching your negative EV in the long run.
That’s an interesting topic in itself or would make an interesting article here. And then when people come here to get a system, instead of the snarky replies, we could point the newcomer to a thoughtfully written article describing exactly why the system doesn’t achieve the aims of being a long term winner.
The article may even debate the merits of a system for increasing or decreasing variance (if that’s viewed as a goal by the player).
I’m not going to be the one to write the article but I would applaud the author.
Bolding above mine.
I don't think, in this case that's true. The vast majority of the time, you will win (if you win) a larger amount than you lost the previous hand. It goes down from there, in reverse progression, if you put together a streak of wins. If you are able to reach zero again, you will have won a net +10 units in the example given. You just have to have a large enough BR to play through the losses. But also not have such bad luck that you hit the table max or your BR max while getting them.
Not sure we disagree. I’m assuming any session ends when you win the Target amount and ends when you lose your session bankroll. And you May hit target far more often, but when you lose you lose much more than Target.
From my own observations most people lose approximately 70-80% of the time on even money outcomes.
Example: Flip a coin. You pick heads it lands tails
Then flip again. You pick tails it lands heads
Flip a third time. You pick heads it lands heads
Flip a 4th time. You pick heads it lands tails
Ad infinitum like above....
The coin flipped exactly 50-50 but you only GUESSED correctly 25% of the time.
Are there any studies of the combination of outcomes (which approach mathematical odds) and the correct guessing of those outcomes
Or is the strategy to simply pick a side and never switch? Thats also doomed because I have seen loooong streaks (26 reds at roulette in a row)
And NO I HAVEN'T WITNESSED 18 YO'S IN A ROW before the snarky ones come out
Quote: darkozFrom my own observations most people lose approximately 70-80% of the time on even money outcomes.
Would you be willing to bet that his observation will continue to hold up?
Quote: TomGWould you be willing to bet that his observation will continue to hold up?
I cant count the number of times I have seen entire bankrolls lost in minutes not because the tables were going against probability but because players were guessing wrong on each outcome
Quote: darkozSomething thats also overlooked and maybe all the mathheads here will scream bloody murder at me
From my own observations most people lose approximately 70-80% of the time on even money outcomes.
Example: Flip a coin. You pick heads it lands tails
Then flip again. You pick tails it lands heads
Flip a third time. You pick heads it lands heads
Flip a 4th time. You pick heads it lands tails
Ad infinitum like above....
The coin flipped exactly 50-50 but you only GUESSED correctly 25% of the time.
Are there any studies of the combination of outcomes (which approach mathematical odds) and the correct guessing of those outcomes
Or is the strategy to simply pick a side and never switch? Thats also doomed because I have seen loooong streaks (26 reds at roulette in a row)
And NO I HAVEN'T WITNESSED 18 YO'S IN A ROW before the snarky ones come out
Was this a single or double zero wheel?
Quote: MaxPenWas this a single or double zero wheel?
The 26 reds in a row was a double zero wheel
It was at Ceasars AC second floor.
Circa 2012 during my infancy in AP.
IIRC some of your first posts on this site were about a roullet system or something like that?Quote: darkozThe 26 reds in a row was a double zero wheel
It was at Ceasars AC second floor.
Circa 2012 during my infancy in AP.
I almost forgot, you also said you could predict when a slot bonus round was coming. On a non metered type of slot bonus, of course,( I could probably tell you the exact spin when a coming soon bonus round was coming, but of course that was highly exploitable) but it wasn't beatable. Now that you are the most feared well known secretive respected mask wearing bus ridding AP author on the EC, can you divulge what slot this was?
Quote: michael99000Which means the system can also beat roulette playing red/black
True but no even money bet, without commission, is as close to 50% as the Player Bet.
Quote: AxelWolfIIRC some of your first posts on this site were about a roullet system or something like that?
I almost forgot, you also said you could predict when a slot bonus round was coming. On a non metered type of slot bonus, of course,( I could probably tell you the exact spin when a coming soon bonus round was coming, but of course that was highly exploitable) but it wasn't beatable. Now that you are the most feared well known secretive respected mask wearing bus ridding AP author on the EC, can you divulge what slot this was?
This is the second time you have mentioned roulette systems I wrote about when I first joined the site
Those systems involved time travel and aliens and were clearly fiction
Curious why you continuously try to debunk my knowledge by conflating past associations with me
It is becoming more and more clear who truly fears the EC's most feared AP
Quote: DeMangoNo you only need to win about 40% of decisions.
You only need to win 33.34% of the decisions to complete a Labouchere list. Sounds easy enough, since Banker wins 50.7% of all winning hands, but I’ve seen Player win 26 out of 32 hands.
Quote: Bruceberger12I tested my version of the cancellation system on your supplied bad run, With $1 units.
My largest bet was $7200, my required bank would have been $14,400. Very doable. Thank you again.
I do realize of course there is always a bad run out there that can take down any bankroll. Ill use a stop loss to protect myself from that.
Doable?
Your 'doable' required bankroll was 14,400 units.
Doable until you lose two 7,200 unit bets in a row.
Even if you have a stop loss, what is there to prevent you from hitting it again on the next shoe, and the next?
Labouchere raises your average bet size. What was yours?
I uses to play Labouchere. Not anymore.
For the shoes that I won, I found simply flat betting my average bet size for the shoe, would have won more units than betting Labouchere progressions.
For example: Over two shoes, I won 23 units, less commissions using Labouchere. My highest bet was 13 units and my average bet was 4 units. Had I flat bet four units on every hand, I would have won 32 units, less commissions. Much less risk, with a better outcome.
If the OP believes he has a winning bet selection process, he should compare the results of flat betting a larger amount, with his Labouchere results.
Quote: TankoDoable?
Your 'doable' required bankroll was 14,400 units.
Doable until you lose two 7,200 unit bets in a row.
Even if you have a stop loss, what is there to prevent you from hitting it again on the next shoe, and the next?
Labouchere raises your average bet size. What was yours?
I uses to play Labouchere. Not anymore.
For the shoes that I won, I found simply flat betting my average bet size for the shoe, would have won more units than betting Labouchere progressions.
For example: Over two shoes, I won 23 units, less commissions using Labouchere. My highest bet was 13 units and my average bet was 4 units. Had I flat bet four units on every hand, I would have won 32 units, less commissions. Much less risk, with a better outcome.
If the OP believes he has a winning bet selection process, he should compare the results of flat betting a larger amount, with his Labouchere results.
Continue to believe this would make a great betting system 101 article.
Here’s the counterpoint: there are also shoes where flat betting leads to a loss (say where you hit 45% wins) where Labouchere would give you a win.
It’s all a game of changing the distribution of wins and losses without changing the EV.
Quote: darkozThis is the second time you have mentioned roulette systems I wrote about when I first joined the site
Those systems involved time travel and aliens and were clearly fiction
Curious why you continuously try to debunk my knowledge by conflating past associations with me
It is becoming more and more clear who truly fears the EC's most feared AP
Once someone posts any reference to beating roulette, it goes on their permanent WOV record Bringing it up in a discussion is a great way to insult someone without actually being suspended.
Quote: darkoz
From my own observations 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒍𝒆 lose approximately 70-80% of the time on even money outcomes.
The coin flipped exactly 50-50 but 𝒚𝒐𝒖 only GUESSED correctly 25% of the time.
if this post had any validity at all, you would be at the tables betting the opposite of 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒍𝒆
and you would be rich beyond your wildest dreams
but you didn't do that and get filthy rich
because this post has no validity at all
This is why I always bet against myself.Quote: lilredroosterif this post had any validity at all, you would be at the tables betting the opposite of 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒍𝒆
and you would be rich beyond your wildest dreams
but you didn't do that and get filthy rich
because this post has no validity at all
Quote: lilredroosterif this post had any validity at all, you would be at the tables betting the opposite of 𝒎𝒐𝒔𝒕 𝒑𝒆𝒐𝒑𝒍𝒆
and you would be rich beyond your wildest dreams
but you didn't do that and get filthy rich
because this post has no validity at all
Because I would still be guessing right?
Exactly my point!
I have only brought it up twice??? WOW, I'm slip'in!!!Quote: darkozThis is the second time you have mentioned roulette systems I wrote about when I first joined the site
Those systems involved time travel and aliens and were clearly fiction
Curious why you continuously try to debunk my knowledge by conflating past associations with me
It is becoming more and more clear who truly fears the EC's most feared AP
Don't cry, I'm just busting your masked balls.
image how much you could win simply betting against one of those guys.Quote: darkozSomething thats also overlooked and maybe all the mathheads here will scream bloody murder at me
From my own observations most people lose approximately 70-80% of the time on even money outcomes.
Quote: JimRockfordimage how much you could win simply betting against one of those guys.
That assumes I am somehow immune to what most people are.
I.e.assuming I now play against the table that is when everyone else wins and I lose 70-80% of the time.
I could switch back to playing with everyone but then I am now probably going to lose 70-80% of the time with everyone.
As people try to guess what the next outcome is they wind up losing 70-80% of the time even though the outcomes of the game itself is hueing true to the odds.
Then I suppose someone could just bet against you, if you're eternally snake-bit.Quote: darkozThat assumes I am somehow immune to what most people are.
I.e.assuming I now play against the table that is when everyone else wins and I lose 70-80% of the time.
I could switch back to playing with everyone but then I am now probably going to lose 70-80% of the time with everyone.
As people try to guess what the next outcome is they wind up losing 70-80% of the time even though the outcomes of the game itself is hueing true to the odds.
Quote: JimRockfordThen I suppose someone could just bet against you, if you're eternally snake-bit.
Correct but then of course they are making what could be a decision that goes against them and I have my winning streak I so rightfully deserved after losing 70-80% of the time
See no one is immune and no system can get around it
This might actually work betting against those sports book degenerate handicappers that hang out in the sports books all day long. They might actually know what they are doing but subconsciously they usually go with the wrong side for some crazy psychological reason.Quote: JimRockfordimage how much you could win simply betting against one of those guys.
When in doubt, bet against the degenerate who has all his money ridding on the lock of the_____.
I would include horse players but the vig seems a bit high to mess with that.
Quote: AxelWolfThis might actually work betting against those sports book degenerate handicappers that hang out in the sports books all day long. They might actually know what they are doing but subconsciously they usually go with the wrong side for some crazy psychological reason.
When in doubt, bet against the degenerate who has all his money ridding on the lock of the_____.
I would include horse players but the vig seems a bit high to mess with that.
Axelsheep must be super loaded with cash!! He apparently knows everything about everything! #betwithax
Quote: WatchMeWinAxelsheep
^^^
This is gonna get you suspended....
Quote: TigerWu^^^
This is gonna get you suspended....
Thank you for letting me know. Dont see anything wrong with sheep. A spade is a spade.
btw, before I go... take Arizona State today also!!
Quote: TigerWu^^^
This is gonna get you suspended....
He's a big boy.. He can handle it. He stalks me and insults me constantly.. never gets suspended. #whatsupwithdat
I'm not inclined to stomp on him for this rather trivial insult, but he should take this as a very severe warning. Even a glimmer of a personal insult by WMW in the next ( insert arbitrary period*) will result in a very severe penalty from me. **
In fairness, anyone taking potshots at WMW will also be dealt with.
Let's play nice!
*Left deliberately
** Other moderators might still act on this, based on their own interpretation.
Quote: OnceDearWMW has only just come back from 2 months for personal insult.
I'm not inclined to stomp on him for this rather trivial insult, but he should take this as a very severe warning. Even a glimmer of a personal insult by WMW in the next ( insert arbitrary period*) will result in a very severe penalty from me. **
In fairness, anyone taking potshots at WMW will also be dealt with.
Let's play nice!
*Left deliberately
** Other moderators might still act on this, based on their own interpretation.
Grazie Mille!!
Quote: WatchMeWin
btw, before I go... take Arizona State today also!!
Should we buy 17 points ?
Quote: OnceDearWMW has only just come back from 2 months for personal insult.
I'm not inclined to stomp on him for this rather trivial insult, but he should take this as a very severe warning. Even a glimmer of a personal insult by WMW in the next ( insert arbitrary period*) will result in a very severe penalty from me. **
In fairness, anyone taking potshots at WMW will also be dealt with.
Let's play nice!
*Left deliberately
** Other moderators might still act on this, based on their own interpretation.
Axel has been, in his own words, busting my balls for a while now.
But you dont hear me complaining
[I suppose you are reading me complaining but you are not "hearing" me complain]
Quote: michael99000Should we buy 17 points ?
buy up to 14.5 to cover 2 touchdowns.
He 'busts' mine too. One day... ONE DAY.... But not today $:o)Quote: darkozAxel has been, in his own words, busting my balls for a while now.
But you dont hear me complaining
[I suppose you are reading me complaining but you are not "hearing" me complain]
I didnt even really notice or think about his sheep comment until somome pointed it out. It wasn't even the sheep comment that made his post suspension worthy, it was the fact that he doubled down after with the call a spade a spade comment.Quote: OnceDearWMW has only just come back from 2 months for personal insult.
I'm not inclined to stomp on him for this rather trivial insult, but he should take this as a very severe warning. Even a glimmer of a personal insult by WMW in the next ( insert arbitrary period*) will result in a very severe penalty from me. **
In fairness, anyone taking potshots at WMW will also be dealt with.
Let's play nice!
*Left deliberately
** Other moderators might still act on this, based on their own interpretation.
As I said before soon after his last suspension, I would let him stay on for a while since I need some entertainment.
--------------------
WMW are you coming to the WOV Spring Fling? IIRC we still have a potential bet to get rolling.
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#StillTheWorstModeratorEver.
Quote: AxelWolfI didnt even really notice or think about his sheep comment until somome pointed it out. It wasn't even the sheep comment that made his post suspension worthy, it was the fact that he doubled down after with the call a spade a spade comment.
As I said before soon after his last suspension, I would let him stay on for a while since I need some entertainment.
--------------------
WMW are you coming to the WOV Spring Fling? IIRC we still have a potential bet to get rolling.
--------------------
#StillTheWorstModeratorEver.
'you would let me stay for a while' ? hahaha you think so highly of yourself. you must be rich!! so smart and predictive!!
Regarding bets.. you have already chickened out on a couple of my proposals. You dont have the balz!
Quote: OnceDearWMW has only just come back from 2 months for personal insult.
...
Even a glimmer of a personal insult by WMW in the next ( insert arbitrary period*) will result in a very severe penalty from me. **
Quote: WatchMeWin'Regarding bets.. you have already chickened out on a couple of my proposals. You dont have the balz!
Let me clarify...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/watchmewin/
Quote: OnceDearLet me clarify...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/watchmewin/
Bad suspension. For saying someone who won't accept a bet doesnt have the 'balz' to? Really?
Quote: SOOPOOBad suspension. For saying someone who won't accept a bet doesnt have the 'balz' to? Really?
Yeah more of a dare than a personal insult.
Its a common enough saying in America.
Is it possible its not a common saying in England where OD is?
I am sure if someone in England says its best to put out all the faggots someone in America will think its a homosexual slur (faggots are woodsticks for fire or something in England)
Um ya, I declined the ones where you proposed something that was +EV for yourself. I don't think that was your intention, you just didnt realize what you were proposing would have been + EV for you. I certainly hope you didnt realize that since the entire point of our wagering discussion was for you to prove you can beat a -EV game with your shooting skills and betting system by putting your money where your mouth was.Quote: WatchMeWin'you would let me stay for a while' ? hahaha you think so highly of yourself. you must be rich!! so smart and predictive!!
Regarding bets.. you have already chickened out on a couple of my proposals. You dont have the balz!
That's why I said multiple times that I would just book the bets a if I was the casino. Whatever you win I will double, triple etc but whatever you lost you would do the same. With a situation such as that there would be no obligations other than one of us paying what we own once we were finished.
Let me clarify as well... #0nlyThe2ndWorstModEver.Quote: OnceDearLet me clarify...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/watchmewin/
Keep this up, and If you are lucky, you might become one of the most feared well known secretive MOD in the UK.
You will need a bus pass and a mask.
Quote: AxelWolfLet me clarify as well... #0nlyThe2ndWorstModEver.
Keep this up, and If you are lucky, you might become one of the most feared well known secretive MOD in the UK.
You will need a bus pass and a mask.
Reminds me of the craps dealer who was called the second best dealer in the building. All others were tied for first. The Vietnamese still fighting each other!
Will I play it live? For $200 sure. But I consider it a toy as opposed to a strategy.
