SONBP2
SONBP2
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:06:08 PM permalink
Thanks for all the info. I obviously knew you would lose eventually, but I just wasn't seeing the math. I do think $1,000 bankroll is pretty limited for serious craps players and I think this system is a good as any others. I believe the Wizard stated that the average shooter throws an average of 6x before the 7, so the system could keep you around long enough to be at the table when a good roll occurs.

This system is NOT like blackjack though where you keep doubling b/c eventually you have all numbers covered and will receive some return and then your next bet would not be double.

Consider this:

Pass line $5. Come out roll is 4
Come Bet $5. Roll 5.
Come Bet $10. Roll 6.
Come Bet $20. Roll 8.
Come Bet $40. Roll 9.
Come Bet $80. Roll 10. Total Amount Bet $160.
Come Bet $160. Roll ?? There is the possibility that could walk to the table with $500 and play the system if the shooter was hitting the numbers, b/c the next bet you would either be paid, lose with 2,3,12, or 7-out and break even.

Thanks for all the comments.
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:26:49 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

Thanks for all the info. I obviously knew you would lose eventually, but I just wasn't seeing the math. I do think $1,000 bankroll is pretty limited for serious craps players and I think this system is a good as any others. I believe the Wizard stated that the average shooter throws an average of 6x before the 7, so the system could keep you around long enough to be at the table when a good roll occurs.

This system is NOT like blackjack though where you keep doubling b/c eventually you have all numbers covered and will receive some return and then your next bet would not be double.

Consider this:

Pass line $5. Come out roll is 4
Come Bet $5. Roll 5.
Come Bet $10. Roll 6.
Come Bet $20. Roll 8.
Come Bet $40. Roll 9.
Come Bet $80. Roll 10. Total Amount Bet $160.
Come Bet $160. Roll ?? There is the possibility that could walk to the table with $500 and play the system if the shooter was hitting the numbers, b/c the next bet you would either be paid, lose with 2,3,12, or 7-out and break even.

Thanks for all the comments.


A New Strategy for Craps Fans: What the Computer Says

25 September 2002
Alan Krigman

Most betting systems have been around for a long time.
The one proposed in this thread can be found:
http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5620.html

And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm

Hey, even Stacy Friedman (MathExtremist) has a few auto-bet files posted at the WinCraps website.

Here are the comments from the WinCraps file"
' This system plays Passline and Come bets without odds
' It starts with a $5 Passline bet. Subsequent bets are made on Come or
' Passline and are equal in size to the total of Passline and established
' Come bets which are already on the table. For instance, if a $5 Passline, a
' $5 Come 4, and a $10 Come 8 bet are already established, then the next bet
' on the Come will be $20 (5+5+10)
' This system is proposed by gaming writer Alan Krigman in an article found at:
' http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/5620.html

I have run sims using the WC file and you either win big, bust out or come out even.
His article explains expected results
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:31:17 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Work through a few scenarios on paper and try to find one where your system captures a profit *before* the seven-out.



And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm

Hey, even Stacy Friedman (MathExtremist) has a few auto-bet files posted at the WinCraps website.
SONBP2
SONBP2
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:41:44 PM permalink
Thanks for the link guido111.

I found the chart at the bottom very interesting in that you could expect wins over $250 about 44% of the time and losses over $250 less than 7% of the time. This is gambling and I am in it to win big when I play craps. A smart gambler knows that there is nothing you can do in craps to change the house edge, leaving out any arguments from controlled shooters, but the chances to walk away with a very good profit give this system some value.

Thanks for the info I had not seen that article before today.
soulhunt79
soulhunt79
Joined: Oct 8, 2010
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:43:28 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I think he meant that the table limits might be higher - not the edge.


For the sake of argument, I'm gonna continue the progression I started above, but play it on a crapless table.

...
You now have $60 on the 8, $5 on 6, $45 on 9.
$110 come. Your bankroll is $810.
7 out. You win $110, plus can take back the $100 bet. Your bankroll is $1,020. Ignore this line.
Roll is 3.
You now have $110 on 3, $5 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$220 come. Your bankroll is $590.
Roll is 6. You win $5. Bankroll is $595.
You now have $110 on 3, $220 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$445 come. Bankroll is $150.

If you 7-out, you win $445, get your $445 come bet back, for a bankroll of $1,040. Fourty bucks. Woo hoo!

The roll is 6 - the BEST number that could have hit. It pays $220. Bankroll is $370.
You now have $110 on 3, $445 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.

Your next come bet should be $660. You're $290 short. What do you do?


Ya know what? When you rolled a 3 above, you could have easily been on a regular table and rolled a 4, 5, or 10 for the exact same results.




On the 7-out, I got the impression that you would just sit there and wait for the bets to come down. You won, and now you have free money sitting out there, no real reason you have to protect it.

That said, the same issue occurs if you just continue the roll longer and never 7-out.
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:51:42 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm

Hey, even Stacy Friedman (MathExtremist) has a few auto-bet files posted at the WinCraps website.



Huh? MathExtremist is Stacy??? Hi, Stacy! I remember your Low-EV hedge system from rec.gambling.craps. I have the krigcome.bet file, dated March 2004, and I may have written it, but I can't remember. I also ran several different simulations with it, using different bankrolls and bet levels. They ran between 20 and 30% winning sessions, lots of busts of a $2000 bankroll. I actually still have all my old autobet and games-log files, can you believe that?

I wonder how many RCG alumni we have here, posting under pseudonyms? The "Midnight Skulker" is posting on the Craps Forum (crapsforum.com).
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
SONBP2
SONBP2
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:53:58 PM permalink
Never 7-out, then at some point you have hit enough points that if you came with $1,000 you would have a profit. At that time you should just either let bets ride or place smaller wagers just to keep some money in action. At some point too, if the streak was really good, you could take the profit and start placing odds and then you would really be making some money.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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November 3rd, 2010 at 1:56:11 PM permalink
I take back most of what I wrote in this thread.

It just occurred to me that I forgot that when a come bet wins, you not only get paid, but since there is a new come bet of different amount, you're getting the original come bet too.

So my math was completely wrong.

But that doesn't mean that I change my mind about the concept in general...


Here's my new math:
Quote: SONBP2

Pass line $5. Come out roll is 4
Come Bet $5. Roll 5.
Come Bet $10. Roll 6.
Come Bet $20. Roll 8.
Come Bet $40. Roll 9.
Come Bet $80. Roll 10. Total Amount Bet $160.
Come Bet $160. Roll ??


If you started with $1,000, you bankroll is $680.
If the next roll is a 10, you win $80, plus get the $80. The 10 becomes $160, so your new come bet is $240. Bankroll is 680+80+80-240=$600
If the next roll is a 6, you win $10, plus get the $10. The 6 becomes $240. Your new come bet is $470. Bankroll is 600+10+10-470=$150

What's the table maximum? Seems like you're getting close to the limit and/or running out of bankroll.

If you 7-out at this point, you've got 150+470+470=$1,090.

Still not great.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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November 3rd, 2010 at 2:00:31 PM permalink
Quote: guido111

And a WinCraps auto bet file can be found here:
KRIGCOME.BET (20th file from top)
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/brfiles.htm



I knew this looked familiar. As I recall, the behavior is that you win 1 unit for every repeated number thrown before the 7-out, as long as you don't hit the table limit first. The risk on normal craps is the crap rolls; the risk on crapless is hitting the limit much more quickly than normal.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Chuck
Chuck
Joined: Jun 11, 2010
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November 3rd, 2010 at 2:03:05 PM permalink
It is the "reverse martingale" from Krigman's article.

I played around with it on the Wiz's simulator and it's a lot of fun. If you don't simply bust out fast, the biggest problem is that on a long roll, you will soon have way more on the numbers than the max bet you're allowed on the come. So you end up way over-exposed to a seven.

But his results table for a large sample session was interesting.

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