SONBP2
SONBP2
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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November 3rd, 2010 at 9:40:32 AM permalink
First, I am in agreement with most everyone on here that understands systems don't work, but I play the following system for fun on wizardofodds.com with consistent success. I play the system until I double my money or lose the $1000. Can anyone explain the math to why this doesn't work, I think it has to do with the throwing 2,3, or 12, but not sure. Here is the system, but basically after making a pass line bet, always bet the come bet in an amount that equals all other bets on the table, so that if you "7-out" the come/pass line bet equals what you would lose.

Example:
Come out roll bet pass line $5 (after point is established)
Come bet for $5, then
Come bet for $10, then
Come bet for $20 (to cover the pass line $5 and 2 come bets for $15, keep adjusting as points hit).

At some point on long rolls there comes a profit point that even if you lost without placing any new bet you would still be profitable. Table limits are obviously a concern, but even with a max bet of $2000 there would have been a point that you wouldn't have to continue to match all bets on the table b/c even if you "7-out" there would still be a profit.

I recognize that if a 2,3, or 12 is rolled you lose your pass line or come bet and I believe that is where I would lose over the long run, but what is the math and or house edge for playing the system above?

And what would be the difference if you bet this system on a "crapless craps" table?

Thanks for the information.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 3rd, 2010 at 10:41:29 AM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

...I think it has to do with the throwing 2,3, or 12, but not sure.

Close. It's just the 2 and 12 that is killing you.

The 3 is offset by the 11.

When you have a lot of bets up, that 2 and 12 grids your stack down in a hurry!


As systems go, this is as much of a stinker as any of them.

Consider this example which does not have ANY 2 or 12:

Assume a roll of 6, 8, 8, 9, 9, 9, 8, 7. A ssemingly typical / good roll that doesn't even spread you too wide.

Start with $1,000.
$5 pass. $995 left in the bankroll.
Roll is 6.
$5 come. $990 bankroll.
Roll is 8.
$10 come. $980 bankroll.
Roll is 8. The 8 pays even money. $985 bankroll.
You now have $10 on the 8, and $5 on the 6.
$15 come. $970 bankroll.
Roll is 9. 6: $5. 8: $10, 9: $15.
$30 come. $940 bankroll.
Roll is 9. This is what you were waiting for. The 9 pays even money of $30. Bankroll $970.
You now have $30 on the 9, $5 on 6, $10 on 8.
$45 come. Your bankroll is $925.
Roll is another 9. Bingo. The 9 pays even money of $45. Bankroll $970.
You now have $45 on the 9, $5 on 6, $10 on 8.
$60 come. Your bankroll is $910.
Roll is 8. This pays $10. Bankroll is $920.
You now have $60 on the 8, $5 on 6, $45 on 9.
$110 come. Your bankroll is $810.
7 out. You win $110, plus can take back the $100 bet. Your bankroll is $1,020.

That was a lot of work and risk for a measley $20. Throw in one 2 or 12, or hit the 7-out sooner, and you're done.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
SONBP2
SONBP2
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November 3rd, 2010 at 10:57:43 AM permalink
Thanks for the post DJTeddyBear....would crapless craps make any difference since it would avoid losing on the 2 or 12?

Never been to a crapless craps table so I don't know how high table limits are there. From personal experience I have seen very wide high limits on regular craps tables.

Four Winds Casino in Michigan had $5min--$10,000max about a year ago.
teddys
teddys
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November 3rd, 2010 at 11:31:11 AM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

Four Winds Casino in Michigan had $5min--$10,000max about a year ago.

Still does. In fact, it might be more.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
SONBP2
SONBP2
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November 3rd, 2010 at 11:57:54 AM permalink
Quote: teddys

Still does. In fact, it might be more.



Why? The system is subject only to the house edge of the 2/12 if I don't lose my money on the 2/12 then why would the house edge be greater.

I understand I am not onto something new here and I am sure someone has lost playing some form of this system before. I am just not seeing how crapless craps wouldn't have a 0% house edge. Table limits are a concern but once you hit that profit point you just let everything ride and be happy with the profit you have made.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:18:23 PM permalink
I've played with it a few times using the Wiz' simulator.

When you actually do roll a number that has a bet on it, regardless of how much is actually on it, your net win is $5 the first time it hits, $10 the second time, $20 the next, etc.

When you roll a 2 or 12 late in the progression, it HURTS!

However, if you have rolls with no 2/3/11/12, and don't hit any numbers, your net is back to where you started.

Based on that,...
Quote: SONBP2

....would crapless craps make any difference since it would avoid losing on the 2 or 12?

I'd say that it might actually work on a crapless table... EXCEPT... Sooner or later, you're gonna get on such a good roll that you will either not be able to cover the next come bet, or you'll exceed the table limit.

When that happens, you're in big trouble if the 7-out hits.


Bottom line, this is just a system of hedges.

The Wiz' Ten Commandments states, 7. Thou shalt not hedge thy bets, for a good reason.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:19:48 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

Why? The system is subject only to the house edge of the 2/12 if I don't lose my money on the 2/12 then why would the house edge be greater.

I understand I am not onto something new here and I am sure someone has lost playing some form of this system before. I am just not seeing how crapless craps wouldn't have a 0% house edge. Table limits are a concern but once you hit that profit point you just let everything ride and be happy with the profit you have made.



How are you going to hit the profit point if you keep putting all your winnings back out on the table? Work through a few scenarios on paper and try to find one where your system captures a profit *before* the seven-out.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
soulhunt79
soulhunt79
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:21:04 PM permalink
***This was for the crapsless craps post

This is no different than betting $5 on blackjack and continueing to double until you win.

The house edge is built into every bet since it is entirely possible for you to run out of money before you get a win. While not likely, the times this would occur the loss would be substantial. While the times you win you are only winning 1 unit every sequence. So one bad streak can wipe out dozens of wins, which is where you get to the 5% house edge it seems on crapsless craps.

Having trouble with the math but I think with a roll of 20 or so in a row with no 7, which is not even close to impossible, you will be having comes bets in the 10k+ range if not 100k+. Depends a lot on the sequence. In the end you will win with your 300k bet when the 7 out occurs, but you just won $5.
mkl654321
mkl654321
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:28:30 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

Thanks for the post DJTeddyBear....would crapless craps make any difference since it would avoid losing on the 2 or 12?

Never been to a crapless craps table so I don't know how high table limits are there. From personal experience I have seen very wide high limits on regular craps tables.

Four Winds Casino in Michigan had $5min--$10,000max about a year ago.



Crapless craps kills you because the house advantage on the Pass Line bet is much higher. Consider that you said that you "don't lose" on the 2 or 12--but in reality, you still lose 5/6 of the time on a comeout 2 or 12 anyway. You don't lose on a comeout 3--but you still lose eventually 2/3 of the time. But they take away 2/3 of your wins on a comeout 11--you now win only 1/3 of the time, not 100% of the time--and that's a crusher.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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November 3rd, 2010 at 12:36:43 PM permalink
Quote: SONBP2

Why? The system is subject only to the house edge of the 2/12 if I don't lose my money on the 2/12 then why would the house edge be greater.

I think he meant that the table limits might be higher - not the edge.


For the sake of argument, I'm gonna continue the progression I started above, but play it on a crapless table.

...
You now have $60 on the 8, $5 on 6, $45 on 9.
$110 come. Your bankroll is $810.
7 out. You win $110, plus can take back the $100 bet. Your bankroll is $1,020. Ignore this line.
Roll is 3.
You now have $110 on 3, $5 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$220 come. Your bankroll is $590.
Roll is 6. You win $5. Bankroll is $595.
You now have $110 on 3, $220 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.
$445 come. Bankroll is $150.

If you 7-out, you win $445, get your $445 come bet back, for a bankroll of $1,040. Fourty bucks. Woo hoo!

The roll is 6 - the BEST number that could have hit. It pays $220. Bankroll is $370.
You now have $110 on 3, $445 on 6, $60 on 8, $45 on 9.

Your next come bet should be $660. You're $290 short. What do you do?


Ya know what? When you rolled a 3 above, you could have easily been on a regular table and rolled a 4, 5, or 10 for the exact same results.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁

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