Bogdan
Bogdan
Joined: Mar 30, 2018
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March 30th, 2018 at 11:00:40 AM permalink
I have just discover your forum and I like it :)
It looks like after reading your posts, I have a big problem at baccarat. I want to play, and like every one here I developt my own strategy, and it is a simple one. Cand you please tell me what chance I have on long time bets?
My strategy is like this: i rise my unit with 5% after a loss, and decreese it of 5.3% when I win, starting ballance 10.000, starting unit 1, bet only on the Player, what are my chances?
So i make my bet of 1, lost next one 1.05, lost, next one 1.1025 win, next one 1.047 and so
And one more question, if i use card counting system, I know is not beating the casino, but it at least reduces the STDEV for baccarat?
OnceDear
Administrator
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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Chuckleberry
March 30th, 2018 at 11:38:24 AM permalink
Quote: Bogdan

I have just discover your forum and I like it :)
It looks like after reading your posts, I have a big problem at baccarat. I want to play, and like every one here I developt my own strategy, and it is a simple one. Cand you please tell me what chance I have on long time bets?
My strategy is like this: i rise my unit with 5% after a loss, and decreese it of 5.3% when I win, starting ballance 10.000, starting unit 1, bet only on the Player, what are my chances?
So i make my bet of 1, lost next one 1.05, lost, next one 1.1025 win, next one 1.047 and so
And one more question, if i use card counting system, I know is not beating the casino, but it at least reduces the STDEV for baccarat?

Welcome, new user.
You would, in all probability, see your bankroll initially rise just a little and then go into terminal decline. There is no guarantee of the initial rise, but if you like, I'll guarantee the decline.
If you read a few posts here, you will be sure to find that belief in casino beating systems will draw howls of constructive criticism, if not downright hostility. Don't take it personally when your system is analysed and torn to shreds.
Do what you enjoy, if you can afford it.

Regards,
OD
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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Bogdan
March 30th, 2018 at 9:59:17 PM permalink
Quote: Bogdan

Cand you please tell me what chance I have on long time bets?

long term loser. because of the house edge

in other words
the casino does not pay you enough when you win a bet
Quote: Bogdan

My strategy is like this:
i rise my unit with 5% after a loss,
and decreese it of 5.3% when I win,
starting ballance 10.000, starting unit 1, bet only on the Player, what are my chances?

something to compare to.
say you try to gain just 100 starting with 10000

flat betting 1 unit would be this
[1] "Player bet"
[1] "Stake: 10000"
[1] "Target: 10100"
p(goal):
0.06328068 (yuck. only about 1 in 16)
p(ruin):
0.9367193 (yucks 2)
mean Trials:
678323.6
mean given Goal:
7246.377
mean given Ruin:
723658.6
actually that above calculation did not include pushes.
same probabilities but the average number of hands played is 756,375.2

so I had 1000 close friends
play like you said, exactly
about 7.3% hit the target goal (about 1 in 14)
the other 92.7% lost all 10000
average number of games played was about 680,000

does not sound very good (here)
I think you need a better bet selection to win more, imho

Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Mar 30, 2018
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DeMango
DeMango
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
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Bogdan
March 30th, 2018 at 11:03:27 PM permalink
Would betting banker, using same betting progression , not produce much better result?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
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March 31st, 2018 at 2:59:15 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

I think you need a better bet selection to win more, imho Sally



here we go. bet selection. the poor sister of betting progressions.

why not just bring a little voodoo doll to the table and put a mild curse on the house. so the house loses money but just to you not to everybody.

so the casino will still be open when you come back.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe
Bogdan
Bogdan
Joined: Mar 30, 2018
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March 31st, 2018 at 4:21:43 AM permalink
And what abouth the second question, the STDEV?
BTW, what is the STDEV on Player at baccarat game?
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
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March 31st, 2018 at 6:25:41 AM permalink
Quote: Bogdan

And what abouth the second question, the STDEV?
BTW, what is the STDEV on Player at baccarat game?



0.95

from https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/

so, for my taste, you should do nothing to reduce the variance

as far as card counting reducing variance, I don't see how since the usual application involves betting more when the count is good. This jacks up the variance so much in BJ that players feel abused by it in a game which actually has low variance when flat betting.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Bogdan
Bogdan
Joined: Mar 30, 2018
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March 31st, 2018 at 7:41:10 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

0.95

from /gambling/house-edge/

so, for my taste, you should do nothing to reduce the variance

as far as card counting reducing variance, I don't see how since the usual application involves betting more when the count is good. This jacks up the variance so much in BJ that players feel abused by it in a game which actually has low variance when flat betting.



Not verry good at einglish, is this a yes or a no?
And from your opinion, what is the game with the lowest variance?
Bogdan
Bogdan
Joined: Mar 30, 2018
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March 31st, 2018 at 8:09:51 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Welcome, new user.
You would, in all probability, see your bankroll initially rise just a little and then go into terminal decline. There is no guarantee of the initial rise, but if you like, I'll guarantee the decline.
If you read a few posts here, you will be sure to find that belief in casino beating systems will draw howls of constructive criticism, if not downright hostility. Don't take it personally when your system is analysed and torn to shreds.
Do what you enjoy, if you can afford it.

Regards,
OD



You are right and wrong, there are systems that can beat casinos, and casinos know this, that is whi they have a min and a max bet.
The question actualy is: is there a system that work in theyr margins?
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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March 31st, 2018 at 8:18:47 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Would betting banker, using same betting progression , not produce much better result?

for the casino it would, imo

for they player??

Banker bet of 1 and it lost.
down 1

next bet = 1.05 (per rules of progression)
bet wins
1.05 * 0.95 = 0.9975 = net win after commission

so a win produced a net loss of
0.0025
a net win of (-0.0025)

need to find a commission free game. Maybe EZ or pay 1/2 type games would be better.

back to draw board.
bet selection and money management needs to do way better for the player.
*****
IF bet selection and money management
is not
your thing
to having more fun playing (sucks)
try betting more to hit a target win goal.

trying to win just 100 units betting 1 unit starting with 10000 units is really ugly and no fun at all, imho
Sally
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