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hyngchl1
hyngchl1
Joined: Nov 20, 2017
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November 20th, 2017 at 12:42:18 PM permalink
So my friend who claims he has been making a killing playing baccarat told me to roll with the strategy of starting out with player placing 1 unit ($5) bets and stick with betting Player until you win 3 straight. Then after you win 3 straight, he said to switch over to Banker and do the same thing, placing 1 unit bets on Banker until you win 3 straight as well. However, this time for Banker, each time you lose, you will double your losses ($5 - > $ 15 -> $30 -> $60, etc.) aka known as the Martingdale strategy. Then once you win 3 straight on Banker, switch over to Player and repeat except for on player, your just flat betting straight up until you catch a streak of 3. He said he has found high success using this strategy, working about 90% of the time. So I tried using this strategy for the first time and guess what? I was on Banker and Player won 6 straight (which my friend claimed that it will rarely ever happen) and my entire bankroll went down the drain. I don't know if I was just pure unluckiness or if this happens more often than not, but I think it's safe to assume this is a horrible "make me bankrupt asap" strategy that should not be used. I don't know how in the world my friend managed to find success and mak4 constant money using this strategy (don't know if he's lying too) but literally, this had to happen on the first shoe I entered in and it just wiped my soul away completely. Was it just terrible luck or does this happen often? I wish I knew the correct answer to this.
Mission146
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Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 20th, 2017 at 12:58:09 PM permalink
There’s no such thing as luck.

It was a bad run, and they do happen often, just not always on your first attempt.

This thread has also been moved to the Betting Systems Sub-Forum.
Vultures can't be choosers.
rainman
rainman
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
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November 20th, 2017 at 1:27:20 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

There’s no such thing as luck.

It was a bad run, and they do happen often, just not always on your first attempt.

This thread has also been moved to the Betting Systems Sub-Forum.



No such thing? I beg to differ Mr. 146
Definition Luck: success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions:

Two men go play craps 1 wins 1 loses 1 was lucky 1 wasn't
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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November 20th, 2017 at 1:29:05 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

No such thing? I beg to differ Mr. 146
Definition Luck: success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions:

Two men go play craps 1 wins 1 loses 1 was lucky 1 wasn't


No. One guessed right. The other guessed wrong. Luck doesn't exist.
OnceDear
OnceDear
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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November 20th, 2017 at 1:34:48 PM permalink
Quote: hyngchl1

So my friend who claims he has been making a killing playing baccarat t


Hi,
Welcome to the forums.
Let's answer this without looking at Baccarat. Let's make it simpler.

You friend has had a lot of luck and he has had lots of winning sessions before a soul and bankroll destroying session.You had a go and got the bankroll destroyer early on in your playing lifetime. Shit happens. Lucky winning streaks happen.
Let's do this by analogy.
Take two theoretical guns: Revolvers with not 6 chambers but 100. Insert 1 bullet into each. Spin the barrels. Take one revolver for yourself and give one two your friend. A 1 in 100 event hardly ever happens. . . until it happens.
Toss a coin to decide who goes first.
Then take turns, each time spinning the gun barrel, pointing it to the holders head and pulling the trigger.
You are both likely to hear the click of your own gun tens or even dozens of times. But one of you will hear a bang as the other blows his brains out.

That, figuratively speaking is the way Martingale makes you a winner more often than a loser.

Others will do the maths, if they can be bothered. It's all been done before. Martingale has been invented millions of times.It is a fun way of losing money. More fun than flat betting.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.
TigerWu
TigerWu
Joined: May 23, 2016
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November 20th, 2017 at 1:36:18 PM permalink
Go look at some Baccarat shoe results online. You'll see streaks of wins that are 4, 5, 6, 7, etc, long all the time. I played a free online game a week or two ago and Banker won the first 9 hands.
Mission146
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Mission146
Joined: May 15, 2012
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November 20th, 2017 at 1:51:07 PM permalink
Quote: rainman

No such thing? I beg to differ Mr. 146
Definition Luck: success or failure apparently brought by chance rather than through one's own actions:

Two men go play craps 1 wins 1 loses 1 was lucky 1 wasn't



The action undertaken by each man was playing Craps. Only partially chance. No Craps, no chance, no such thing as luck.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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November 20th, 2017 at 1:58:02 PM permalink
Quote: hyngchl1

So my friend who claims he has been making a killing playing baccarat told me to roll with the strategy of starting out with player placing 1 unit ($5) bets and stick with betting Player until you win 3 straight. Then after you win 3 straight, he said to switch over to Banker and do the same thing, placing 1 unit bets on Banker until you win 3 straight as well. However, this time for Banker, each time you lose, you will double your losses ($5 - > $ 15 -> $30 -> $60, etc.) aka known as the Martingdale strategy. Then once you win 3 straight on Banker, switch over to Player and repeat except for on player, your just flat betting straight up until you catch a streak of 3. He said he has found high success using this strategy, working about 90% of the time. So I tried using this strategy for the first time and guess what? I was on Banker and Player won 6 straight (which my friend claimed that it will rarely ever happen) and my entire bankroll went down the drain. I don't know if I was just pure unluckiness or if this happens more often than not, but I think it's safe to assume this is a horrible "make me bankrupt asap" strategy that should not be used. I don't know how in the world my friend managed to find success and mak4 constant money using this strategy (don't know if he's lying too) but literally, this had to happen on the first shoe I entered in and it just wiped my soul away completely. Was it just terrible luck or does this happen often? I wish I knew the correct answer to this.



Okay, we'll assume eight decks.

Probability Banker: .458597
Probability Player: .446247

Combined Probability: 0.904844

Adjusted Probability---Player: .446247/.904844 = 0.49317561922

Adjusted Probability---Banker: .458597/.904844 = 0.50682438077

Proof: 0.50682438077 + 0.49317561922 = 0.99999999999

Probability---Player Six in a Row Disregarding Ties: .49317561922^6 = 0.01438830353

Odds: 1/0.01438830353 = 1 in 69.501

I would hardly call 68.501/69.501 an absolute lock.
Vultures can't be choosers.
UCivan
UCivan
Joined: Sep 3, 2011
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November 20th, 2017 at 2:04:40 PM permalink
Craps has very limited numbers of outcomes. On the contrary, Baccarat has 4,998,398,275,503,360 possible outcomes. If a typical Baccarat table plays say 550,000 hands per year, it will take 1000 tables, more than 9,130,000 years to show all outcomes. One person's life time play experience does not give to much clue into the game.
Tanko
Tanko
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
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November 20th, 2017 at 5:08:34 PM permalink
Quote: hyngchl1

He said he has found high success using this strategy, working about 90% of the time. So I tried using this strategy for the first time and guess what? I was on Banker and Player won 6 straight (which my friend claimed that it will rarely ever happen) and my entire bankroll went down the drain. I don't know if I was just pure unluckiness or if this happens more often than not, but I think it's safe to assume this is a horrible "make me bankrupt asap" strategy that should not be used. I don't know how in the world my friend managed to find success and mak4 constant money using this strategy (don't know if he's lying too) but literally, this had to happen on the first shoe I entered in and it just wiped my soul away completely. Was it just terrible luck or does this happen often? I wish I knew the correct answer to this.



It happens often, and your friend is a liar.

Play long enough, and you will see Player win six or more consecutive hands in nearly 30% of the shoes you play. In a few shoes, six consecutive Player wins will occur more than once.

It will also occur in consecutive shoes you play.

In this Wizard of Odds Baccarat Simulation, six or more consecutive Player wins occurred in shoes 2,3,4 and 5.

Next time someone gives you their strategy, try it online, with free chips and live dealers at FairwayCasino.

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