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BacarratRick
BacarratRick
Joined: Oct 4, 2017
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October 4th, 2017 at 3:43:59 PM permalink
What a great site! I keep learning a lot!

According to your runs in baccarat chart, the chance of a streak of 6 in a row or more against me is 0.015625 (random)? So we should see a streak of 6 in a row (or more) roughly 1.5 times out of 100 decisions.

Assume I always bet against (opposite) the previous decision. In other words, I am betting against a streak of 6 in a row happening. Let's further assume I use a betting progression that will always give me my profit target in less than 30 decisions. (Sometimes as few as 10 decisions!)

I am risking $1600 to win $1000 using my progression,

My question relates to the probability of seeing a streak of 6 or more in 30 decisions. Stated another way, if I never play more than 30 decisions in a game, what are the odds that I will encounter a streak of 6 or more within those 30 decisions?

Assume I am using a simple Martingale (I am not); but every time we have a chop without a streak of 6 in a row, I win. Depending on the pattern, I need 10-30 decisions without a streak of 6 in a row on either bank or player, because I am betting on a choppy shoe.

So in 30 decisions or less, what are the chances I will encounter a streak of six or more in a row? I get tripped up with the calculation because suppose it streaks 4 in a row, and then chops?, letting me win? We've had 5 decisions. But I think I only needed to consider the odds on the very first decision of thais series. In other words, don't my odds of losing only begin again after a series ends? Or is it as simple as calculating the odds times 30 hands?

Thanks in advance for your expert wizardry!
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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October 4th, 2017 at 4:21:51 PM permalink
Quote: BacarratRick

What a great site! I keep learning a lot!

Sincerest welcome to the forum.

Other members will be along shortly to point out the complete error in your thinking. Some will be kind and some will be blunt. All will be asserting the one truth: Progressive systems like yours are of no monetary value. Watching for streaks or chops or whatever is also pointless.

I will be so kind as to say that your system might be a fun way to lose money.
Quote:

I am risking $1600 to win $1000 using my progression,


Then, ignoring that nasty house edge, you have approximately 1600/26 = 61.5% probability of walking out with your $1,000 profit, IF the only possible outcomes are doing so, or walking out $1,600 down.
Here's the mathematical explanation. It's pretty much regardless of what game you play, or how you structure your wagers.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

Quote:

Thanks in advance for your expert wizardry!

You are welcome. But don your asbestos suit for the heat you will get in other replies.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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October 4th, 2017 at 5:13:49 PM permalink
Quote: BacarratRick

So in 30 decisions or less, what are the chances I will encounter a streak of six or more in a row?

I answered this for my Mom sometime back.
B or P run of 6 in 30 hands = (not counting ties)
0.357817976

about a 1 in 3 shot
*****
here is Excel in Google to see how I did it
also click on worksheet 'or6'

https://goo.gl/GTnpbL

or a photo

(my short simulation is very close too)

hope this helps
sounds fun!

have fun!
Sally
Last edited by: mustangsally on Oct 4, 2017
I Heart Vi Hart
Ace2
Ace2
Joined: Oct 2, 2017
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October 4th, 2017 at 9:32:09 PM permalink
I interpret your question as "what is the probability of me losing 6 or more bets in a row", not "what is the the probability of 6 player or banker wins in a row".

The odds of flipping a coin 30 times and not getting at least one streak of 6 heads or more is the 32nd 6-step Fibonacci number divided by 2^30 which is ~80.8%.

So 19.2% chance that such a streak will happen.

Baccarat player/banker is not exactly a coin flip, but pretty dang close, so I believe the answer to your question is quite close to 19.2%, especially since you said you bet opposite each time.
Last edited by: Ace2 on Oct 4, 2017
Itís all about making that GTA
OnceDear
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OnceDear 
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
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October 5th, 2017 at 2:29:10 AM permalink
Note to original poster: You can trust Sally's numbers. She's very well established here as skilled in running such simulations. The fractional difference between her numbers and mine is down to her correctly accomodating the rules of the game with its house edge, where I didn't bother.

Logic and maths are one way of estimating or calculating your chances. Simulations are another way of getting a handle on probabilities and we can use charts to show what the path of your bankroll might look like. I cannot post an image at the moment, but if we plotted a chart of your bankroll using your system, it would look like an upward ramp or staircase with occasional massive blips downwards. For some of your sessions you would double or treble or even sextuple your starting bankroll, but in many trials, you would lose your entire bankroll entirely before making any progress.

Bottom line is, progressives change the shape of your bankroll chart, but they cannot change the average expectation.
Beware. The earth is NOT flat. Hit and run is not a winning strategy: Pressing into trends IS not a winning strategy: Progressives are not a winning strategy: Don't Buy It! .Don't even take it for free.
BlackjackGuy123
BlackjackGuy123
Joined: Jul 27, 2017
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October 7th, 2017 at 2:21:45 PM permalink
it is irrelevant. So long as you are making negative expectation bets in the long run you should expect to lose money. No betting progression changes this unalterable fact. The only way to make money gambling is to make +EV bets.

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