troopscott
• Posts: 394
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
April 3rd, 2017 at 6:23:29 PM permalink
I have read quite a ways and done google searches and can not find the answer here for this so created an account to ask. I can not figure out how to run a simulator to try it outside of what I have done in casino. 100% positive I am not the first to think of or try this so I am just looking for the math and a simulation if anyone is so inclined to help out

Start at a place like Casino Royale with a \$3 minimum bet

Watch 4 rolls of no Field bets
\$3 field bet
\$6 Field bet
\$12 Field Bet
\$25 Field Bet
\$50 Field bet
\$100 Field bet

That would be 10 No Field rolls in a row of a bet that has an almost implied probability of 47% if I recall what I saw somewhere.

I understand that last bet would be as the others for a win of \$3 however with the Double on the 2 and triple on 12 (or reversed) the casinos in Vegas pay it would change the amount of the -EV for a session

A session would be 1 series of rolls through the \$100 bet or the field number hits

Wondering how many sessions a \$2k bankroll (10 \$200 losses for ease of simulation) could make it through before being busted in theory/simulation

Would be very boring and would require discipline to stay away from other bets but I think there is a little short term potential here

Closest thing I saw was a post from someone who said +-5% it would be 94% chance a field number would come up in 5 rolls (not counting skipping the first 4 NF rolls)

Any help would be appreciated
TomG
• Posts: 2428
Joined: Sep 26, 2010
April 3rd, 2017 at 6:35:50 PM permalink
Should expect your \$2000 to last over 15 years if you were to try this once per day
troopscott
• Posts: 394
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
April 3rd, 2017 at 8:14:08 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Should expect your \$2000 to last over 15 years if you were to try this once per day

Not sure it would last that long because at \$3 bet it would take 27 winning sessions to make up for one losing session. Original bankroll would only handle a streak of 25 losing sessions. just not sure how many 27 session winning streaks you would have
odiousgambit
• Posts: 9618
Joined: Nov 9, 2009
April 4th, 2017 at 2:04:58 AM permalink
Quote: troopscott

That is a pretty good illustration of how easy it is to get misinformation on gambling. Those trying to get smarter really have to separate the wheat from the chaff from all that stuff that is out there. Your current idea will get beat up here because the idea of it has been seen before too many times. This is your opportunity to either get angry and stay misinformed or get on the track to wising up.

So I sympathize but I'm afraid you are heading down the wrong road. You need to do a better job of this separation of wheat and chaff - in this case you seem to have come across the Martingale. Check out the links below to get better educated on it and other betting systems from the best source on such on the internet, The Wizard of Odds.

All the Martingale is boils down to a system of betting more when you are losing. It is known to have been in existence for hundreds of years under that name and probably millenniums without a name. That fact alone should be enough - yet you may feel committed. Get it out of your system, read the links.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
April 4th, 2017 at 2:39:42 AM permalink
I would first like to point out that this thread has been moved to, 'Betting Systems,' a more appropriate Sub-Topic.

Welcome to WoV, TroopScott!

Quote: troopscott

I have read quite a ways and done google searches and can not find the answer here for this so created an account to ask. I can not figure out how to run a simulator to try it outside of what I have done in casino. 100% positive I am not the first to think of or try this so I am just looking for the math and a simulation if anyone is so inclined to help out

The first thing that we want to understand is that you can determine the expected number of sessions just by determining an expected loss per session. Because you are only doing this once per day and stopping at any win, this is pretty easily done without a simulation. All we have to do is determine how much you are expected to lose, per attempt, and see how many expected attempts that gives you.

Quote:

Start at a place like Casino Royale with a \$3 minimum bet

Watch 4 rolls of no Field bets
\$3 field bet
\$6 Field bet
\$12 Field Bet
\$25 Field Bet
\$50 Field bet
\$100 Field bet

It doesn't matter to you whether or not four rolls miss the Field if you have not been betting on those four rolls. The dice are unconcerned with the four rolls that they missed the Field.

Quote:

That would be 10 No Field rolls in a row of a bet that has an almost implied probability of 47% if I recall what I saw somewhere.

Only six of those ten actually matter.

Quote:

I understand that last bet would be as the others for a win of \$3 however with the Double on the 2 and triple on 12 (or reversed) the casinos in Vegas pay it would change the amount of the -EV for a session

We will definitely be taking that into consideration, here.

Okay, let's get back to this:

Quote:

Start at a place like Casino Royale with a \$3 minimum bet

\$3 field bet
\$6 Field bet
\$12 Field Bet
\$25 Field Bet
\$50 Field bet
\$100 Field bet

Okay, so let's look at what all can happen:

We're going to start with the worst-case scenario, which is that you miss the Field six consecutive times. The probability of that event occurring is:

(0.555556)^6 = 0.02940133523

If that event occurs, you will have lost \$196, thus:

0.02940133523 * (-196) = -5.76266170508

The next thing we are going to look at is winning on your initial \$3 Field Bet, this can happen in three ways:

(0.027778 * 6) + (0.027778 * 9) + (0.388889 * 3) = 1.583337

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first Field Bet and then winning on the next. We will base this on the amount won overall:

(0.555556 * 0.027778 * 9) + (0.555556 * 0.027778 * 15) + (0.555556 * 0.388889 * 3) = 1.01852248148

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first two bets and then winning on the third:

(0.555556^2 * 0.027778 * 15) + (0.555556^2 * 0.027778 * 27) + (0.555556^2 * 0.388889 * 3) = 0.72016874486

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first three bets and then winning on the fourth:

(0.555556^3 * 0.027778 * 29) + (0.555556^3 * 0.027778 * 54) + (0.555556^3 * 0.388889 * 4) = 0.66206091679

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first four bets and then winning on the fifth:

(0.555556^4 * 0.027778 * 54) + (0.555556^4 * 0.027778 * 104) + (0.555556^4 * 0.388889 * 4) = 0.56627219767

The final thing we are going to look at is losing on your first five bets and winning on the sixth:

(0.555556^5 * 0.027778 * 104) + (0.555556^5 * 0.027778 * 204) + (0.555556^5 * 0.388889 * 4) = 0.535107519

Okay, so now all that remains is to combine those values:

(0.535107519 + 0.56627219767 + 0.66206091679 + 0.72016874486 + 1.01852248148 + 1.583337) - 5.76266170508 = -0.67719284528

Therefore, the Expected Loss per attempt is \$0.67719284528

If you are starting with a bankroll of 2,000, then:

2000/0.67719284528 = 2953.3684739

You are expected to survive roughly 2,953 attempts, which means you could do this for about a little over eight years.

NOTES

1.) Based on the Expected Loss of 0.67719284528 per attempt and the House Edge of 0.027778, we can extrapolate an average bet total of:

0.67719284528/.027778 = 24.3787474001 per attempt.

2.) If you do want to put together a simulation, then it is easy to figure out the probabilities of each event based on the above. All you have to do is remove the result from each equation in the parenthesis. For example, to lose five Field Bets in a row and then roll a 12 would be:

(0.555556^5 * 0.027778) = 0.00147007734

3.) Similarly, you can also break it down and determine the monetary value of each individual result separately by leaving the net amount in there. For the example in Note #2, for instance:

(0.555556^5 * 0.027778 * 204) = 0.29989577865

That represents a Field Bet of \$100 on a Triple Win for \$300 less the (\$50+\$25+\$12+\$6+\$3) = \$96 that had already been lost to that point.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
• Posts: 16832
Joined: May 15, 2012
April 4th, 2017 at 2:43:56 AM permalink
If you want to work that into a simulator, by the way, then just make the \$196 one unit and index all of the results to that. For example:

3/196 = 0.01530612244

That represents a \$3 win indexed to \$196 being one unit. The reason \$196 is one unit is because you are effectively betting \$196 every time you do this if you stick to the system. You are essentially doing nothing more than creating a single multi-roll proposition that could theoretically be resolved in as little as a single roll.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Tanko
• Posts: 1200
Joined: Apr 22, 2013
April 4th, 2017 at 4:17:38 AM permalink
Ran two trials on that progression using WinCraps Pro.

12 Pays Triple.

12,000 Real Dice Rolls

Starting Bankroll= \$1,000

High=1,269

Low= 310

End= 448

Field lost more than ten in a row four times.

7,600 Real Dice Rolls

Starting Bankroll= 1000

High=1,247

Low=336

End=819

Field lost more than ten in a row eight times.
troopscott
• Posts: 394
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
April 4th, 2017 at 7:58:52 AM permalink
Thank you very interesting to see the simulations and results.

I definitely don't think it is long term viable strategy but may be an interesting strategy to play here and there.

I think the higher number of rolls without NF i.e 6 vs 4 before starting the progression would probably increase the probability of a positive session and long term bankroll survival but the time involved waiting for the scenario to appear would be longer so less opportunity to wager and more boredom and discipline needed for a longer period of time. I honestly while in vegas last week had a some decent waits to see the 4 NF rolls. Was able to get it 3 times in an hour the one session I tried it. Had watched a lady doing it but she was starting with green chips and hit the 12 at one point with \$400 bet. Had about 5k in chips in the rack no idea where she started and she seemed to vary when she would jump in anywhere from 2-4 NF rolls. This was at Binions

I was also playing a conservative 6/8 place bet while there. General way of playing it was after the point bet the 6 and 8 or if one of them was the number to go with the 5. Did same bet for 2 hits (obviously people would seven out at times before I could get my two hits) and get a small profit and then press and or get another number every other hit until I had all the numbers covered. Once I got to 2 bets on a number I would always go up 1 unit on the number or another number when it would hit. Actually had one really good run doing that when the guy had the dice for about 45 minutes at Excalibur. Had all the numbers (starting at \$5/6) up into the 40 and 50 dollar range. After about the 5th time he threw the dice off the table they made him choose new dice, he refused took all his bets minus his passline down and walked away cursing them out. (this really made them inspect the dice) Should have been my cue as well to come down. Gave the dice to the next person who rolled 1 number then 7 out. They then let that person have their normal turn.

Had a few other runs that were decent that saw my 6/8 get to 24 and had 10-15 on the rest of the numbers. Never pressed or got a new number more than 1 unit on a hit (\$5 or \$6) and taking the rest as profit

Overall I ended up quite a bit because of that one shooter but I am more of a Pai Gow and regular poker player with some Roulette mixed in if I see something I like (I bet the 00, 1, 27, 10, 13 only) and only if I happen by a board where it has not showed in 14 spins I will give it a 6 spin go of nickels (\$150) and 1 spin of \$10 (\$50)on each number. Not saying that roulette thing is right or wrong it is just what I do and find entertaining. Always nice to hit it on the first spin and cash out.

My pai gow I take my first win, 2nd win I add \$5 as well as every win after that. Loss takes me back to the table minimum. Gets the bet up so I can win more on a streak, and minimizes losses because I always revert back to table minimum. I do play the bonus but only for \$1 and only if I have 1 dollar chips. Wont break red for whites to play it

I am a low roller only way I play at the higher limit casinos is if I am eating there maybe a little before or after dinner but obviously with my Pai Gow style which is the bulk of my play I can make my money go further at Excalibur etc vs Bellaggio and \$25 minimums

Anyways all my ways to play laid out. Thanks for the simulations
troopscott
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Joined: Apr 3, 2017
Thanked by
April 4th, 2017 at 7:59:43 AM permalink
Thanks for the formula and math. I know it took some work to put together much appreciated
OnceDear
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Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 4th, 2017 at 12:40:56 PM permalink
Gi TS,
Welcome to the forum,
Martingale can be a way of making a small amount of profit with a a high probability of success. The downside to which is the small probability of a massive loss.
You need to look at the probability of your system, whatever it is, making a certain percentage profit. Generally making a meaningful profit is the objective. If you walk into a session with a \$1,000,000 expendible bankroll, you can pretty much guarantee winning \$10 in that session, and the next and the next, but what's the point?

That's where my rule of thumb comes in. Applies to any low edge game and shows the probability of winning sessions for such target betting. Maybe take a read through...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

Oh, and no point waiting for those few rolls in your system, except that anything that slows down your betting also slows down your losing.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
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April 4th, 2017 at 6:53:34 PM permalink
Hit n run...
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
OnceDear
• Posts: 7481
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April 5th, 2017 at 1:52:28 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Hit n run...

Yes, but what about when you hit and lose? Do you stick around trying to win it back, or do you just skulk away quietly into the night and never mention that session again?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
April 5th, 2017 at 5:37:34 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Yes, but what about when you hit and lose? Do you stick around trying to win it back, or do you just skulk away quietly into the night and never mention that session again?

To say 'hit n lose' is contradictory , as hit is implied to win and then you must run and walk away. If you hit n lose, this would mean that you stuck around to give it back. What I think you meant to say is what if you never hit and just lose right away.... the key in this instance is to tuck in your tail and NOT CHASE, and make sure this loss is at a minimal that you are willing to risk every time you play. It is the hardest thing to do in gambling, but knowing when to walk is a not commonly seen in the gambling world. This is one of the things that casinos prey upon.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
lilredrooster
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Thanked by
April 5th, 2017 at 8:02:43 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Hit n run...

But if you "hit and run" with your win on Wednesday and you come back on Thursday to play again doesn't that mean that you really didn't run?

Are you saying that you are more likely to win when you come back on Thursday then you are to win more by staying and playing more on Wednesday?

I'm not trying to give you a hard time but if that's what you are saying that's a little bit hard to believe.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
WatchMeWin
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April 5th, 2017 at 8:46:03 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

But if you "hit and run" with your win on Wednesday and you come back on Thursday to play again doesn't that mean that you really didn't run?

Are you saying that you are more likely to win when you come back on Thursday then you are to win more by staying and playing more on Wednesday?

I'm not trying to give you a hard time but if that's what you are saying that's a little bit hard to believe.

That is exactly what I am saying. I know you may say.. why isn't the next shooter just the same as coming in another day? Well, you just have to learn from experience to understand. It has worked for me for the past 10 years. It is real man. The first 10 years on craps were a nightmare because I never got off the table and thought every roll would be 'that long roll'.. It just doesnt work out in the long run. Im currently on a 24-4 day winning run in 2017. Not big wins , 200-500 a pop.... but they are wins. The 3 times I didn't win was twice when my table 7 out a couple times right away and I couldnt make it back, and the other 2 times I stayed on longer than I normally do and tried to catch a long roll. Im not going to preach about the energy anymore, but it is an inexplicable reality and Ive figured my own success from it.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
LuckyPhow
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Joined: May 19, 2016
April 5th, 2017 at 11:23:42 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Im not going to preach about the energy anymore, but it is an inexplicable reality.

Good advice. One should never try to teach a cow to sing because it only wastes your time and annoys the cow.

I often wonder about the folks who embrace the view that "every roll is a mutually independent event from an identically distributed random population." Do they ever set the dice? If so, for what reason if it has no bearing on the outcome of the roll?
WatchMeWin
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April 5th, 2017 at 11:46:58 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Good advice. One should never try to teach a cow to sing because it only wastes your time and annoys the cow.

I often wonder about the folks who embrace the view that "every roll is a mutually independent event from an identically distributed random population." Do they ever set the dice? If so, for what reason if it has no bearing on the outcome of the roll?

Exactly! I was playing with a guy once who kept telling me that the dice are gonna do what the dice are gonna do. Well, I went off every couple of rolls and made money, while he stayed on and kept losing. Then he said he was going to another table because the dice were cold.. haha I told him, you gotta do what you gotta do.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
billryan

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April 5th, 2017 at 12:36:31 PM permalink
I did this a few years ago, for lunch money. My former partner and I put up \$20 each. We'd play Sic Bo , pick a number and bet \$5. Lose bet another \$5, lose and bet \$10, lose bet \$20 and buy a bag of chips for lunch.
What was good about Sic Bo is you could double or triple your money on any roll.
We had a nice run, reaching our \$20 goal about nine weeks in a row, and even got triples on a \$10 bet one week. Then we lost one week and we never did it again.
If you are willing to take a big loss in order to mostly win small amounts, it's not a horrible way to play, but it isn't a winning system.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
WatchMeWin
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Joined: May 20, 2011
April 5th, 2017 at 3:49:15 PM permalink
Im not sure if I would call it a system, but rather a disciplined method with great awareness. It cant be teached.. im not selling anything and don't care if people want to play the way they do., Im just telling you how I win, and in my opinion, the best possible way to consistently walk away ahead in craps. I guarantee you this, if you play craps and stay on every roller and try to hit that long roll every time without going off and taking profits, you will not win often. The longer you stay, the greater the chance of losing. Thats why they want you to put time in when they rate you. Screw that! I play to win, not for comps. Take what you want from it and hopefully it helps.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
troopscott
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April 7th, 2017 at 6:34:58 AM permalink
The goal is to walk away with cash in your pocket at the end of the day, if you get some comps that is a bonus.
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22291
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
April 7th, 2017 at 1:37:45 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

The longer you stay, the greater the chance of losing.

And that makes sense to me since it's -EV and you are exposing more money to the HA.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TomG
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April 8th, 2017 at 6:50:46 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Not big wins , 200-500 a pop.... but they are wins.

About \$40,000 per year if you follow a regular schedule, and up to \$150,000+ if you play most every day. Very nice
mamat
• Posts: 494
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April 11th, 2017 at 9:29:51 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Martingale can be a way of making a small amount of profit with a a high probability of success. The downside to which is the small probability of a massive loss.
You need to look at the probability of your system, whatever it is, making a certain percentage profit. Generally making a meaningful profit is the objective. If you walk into a session with a \$1,000,000 expendible bankroll, you can pretty much guarantee winning \$10 in that session, and the next and the next, but what's the point?

That's where my rule of thumb comes in. Applies to any low edge game and shows the probability of winning sessions for such target betting. Maybe take a read through...
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

Nice post OnceDear.

You might want to add a section about "hourly rate" and "opportunity cost".

a) What is the hourly profit of visiting a casino once/day to play a martingale system?
e.g. if it takes you two hours/day to drive there, play, and come home...
and you play with bankroll X, how does that compare to other gambling things you can do with the same bankroll X?

Consider picking up a hypothetical \$10 FP every day from 8 casinos.
How does it compare to picking up plastic/aluminum recycling for cash?

b) If you have a bankroll X, how much can you make invested in the S&P 500?
Compare that with your gambling method.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7481
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 12th, 2017 at 2:57:19 AM permalink
Quote: mamat

Nice post OnceDear.

Thanks.

You might want to add a section about "hourly rate" and "opportunity cost".

The mean average hourly rate is simply (-House Edge) * (Sum Wagered) I.e. on average you are paying the house for entertainment. Potentially \$1,000,000 per session.
I wouldn't do that for \$10 per visit and I certainly wouldn't do it 8 times per day.
Quote:

a) What is the hourly profit of visiting a casino once/day to play a martingale system?
e.g. if it takes you two hours/day to drive there, play, and come home...

For an average hourly loss! No thanks. And to waste hours a day driving to such jeopardy would be adding insult to injury. Such Marty sessions as I envisaged would be very short compared to wasted travelling time. Again. No thank you.
Quote:

. . .and you play with bankroll X, how does that compare to other gambling things you can do with the same bankroll X?

On average one would make a loss, of course. I think it better to consider wagering as entertainment expense and travelling to the casino as part of that entertainment event. Can't put monetary value on fun. I don't play russian roulette for fun, same goes for Martying a big bankroll for peanuts.
Quote:

Consider picking up a hypothetical \$10 FP every day from 8 casinos.
How does it compare to picking up plastic/aluminum recycling for cash?

With the latter, one doesn't need or risk massive bankroll and doesn't sound much like fun. If you have \$1,000,000 you wouldn't be tempted by either option. Then again, visiting 8 casinos per day sounds a chore not worth doing.
Quote:

b) If you have a bankroll X, how much can you make invested in the S&P 500?
Compare that with your gambling method.

t's not my gambling method! I guess that bit was aimed at the OP?
There's such a vast range of options for what one COULD do by way of investing a massive bankroll that I'm really not bothered to explore them.
Needless to say that the bulk of MY investments are in other opportunities such as real estate, interest bearing p2p lending and stocks. Still gambling of sorts, but +ev
I would only ever gamble expendable fun money. I
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
April 12th, 2017 at 11:31:34 AM permalink
Quote: TomG

About \$40,000 per year if you follow a regular schedule, and up to \$150,000+ if you play most every day. Very nice

Tnx. Not doing it for a living , but its a nice supplemental.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6698
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April 13th, 2017 at 3:17:43 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Needless to say that the bulk of MY investments are in other opportunities such as interest bearing p2p lending

What interest rate do you charge?

the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
OnceDear
• Posts: 7481
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 13th, 2017 at 3:58:09 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

What interest rate do you charge?

i charge between 3.5 and 4.5 percent annualised using Ratesetter.com usually in the rolling market which means money on loan for one month. The p2p platform handles all selecting, loan processing collections and default chasing g. No cost to me if borrower defaults. Peer to peer is a big and mature market in the UK. Is it so in the US?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6698
Joined: May 8, 2015
April 13th, 2017 at 4:29:31 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Peer to peer is a big and mature market in the UK. Is it so in the US?

Peer to peer lending is not as big as it once was in the U.S. but still you can find a guy named Vinnie in Brooklyn who can get you 2 large but you owe him back the 2 large plus an extra \$400 per week for each week the loan is not paid back in full. Vinnie just tells you how much extra you owe. He doesn't have a calculator and he doesn't bother figuring out interest rates. If you don't pay on time you might not feel so good for a few weeks after he makes his collections efforts.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
troopscott
• Posts: 394
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April 13th, 2017 at 8:44:14 PM permalink
So for me this is something I want to tinker with. I am not a professional gambler, don't even live in Vegas I live in Tampa where we have the hardrock and an "organic craps machine" I have no dreams of a mad system making me rich that nobody else has though of in the last 200 years.

What I was interested in was the math and percentages. While you guys are correct that the dice have no memory of the previous roll the laws of probability do have some merit and impact which was the reason for my initial request for the math. In probability theory, the law (or formula) of total probability is a fundamental rule relating marginal probabilities to conditional probabilities. It expresses the total probability of an outcome which can be realized via several distinct events. In this case the field number vs the no field number. Everyone knows the percentages on an individual roll but as the streak goes in length from a F to NF roll the probability's of the next number being a NF roll increase. My goal was to figure out the percentages which several fine folks helped with.

So in comparison I being from Kentucky I also bet the horses races (actually daily) and I handicap the races, create my own odds and look for value plays where my odds are lower than the current line a couple minutes before post (an overlay)

so 6 rolls (4 no bet two bet) in if the odds are 2% that the next number is a NF that makes the bet attractive to me depending on the level of the bet I am at

Craps is not my primary game in the casino (Pai Gow and No Limit live poker) as stated earlier but I usually give it a go here and there in Vegas. Same with Roulette. I fool around with it but not my primary game. This "system, theory," whatever you want to call it has a little interest to me. I can play craps and stay a while. I can adjust the number of rolls etc before I jump in and not get damaged with the most I would lose and 3, 6, 12, 24, 50 (total) \$95 (and 9 missed rolls) at Casino Royale or 5-10-20-40 and \$75 at the \$5 tables on the strip (8 rolls)

I know chances are I can at some point in the trip will take the full hit on this "System" but the \$100 I will throw at it will not dent my bankroll enough to have any impact.

Not something I am looking to get rich off of just tinker with, earn some craps comps, minimal investment and a little fun and maybe walk away with a profit a few times
DeMango
• Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
April 13th, 2017 at 11:20:03 PM permalink
TS; Who makes the craps machine and what are the limits?
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7481
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 14th, 2017 at 1:02:51 AM permalink
First: I confess to not playing craps and not knowing how the betting works.
Quote: troopscott

While you guys are correct that the dice have no memory of the previous roll . . . In this case the field number vs the no field number. Everyone knows the percentages on an individual roll but as the streak goes in length from a F to NF roll the probability's of the next number being a NF roll increase.

Now, that is where you seem to be buying into a theory that dice do have a memory: The probability that the next number is non-field is fixed. It doesn't increase for any reason, least of all because of what happened over the previous rolls. The probability for the outcome of that one roll is determined and applicable in isolation to anything that just happened in the universe, which is history.
Quote:

. . . so 6 rolls (4 no bet two bet) in if the odds are 2% that the next number is a NF that makes the bet attractive to me depending on the level of the bet I am at.

The only value in those no-bet rolls is that they slow down your wagering and slow down your losing. Think of it this way: The odds of tossing a coin and it landing heads is generally accepted as 50%. What are the chances of it landing heads twice? 50%*50%=25%
But if the coin just landed heads: what are the chances that it just landed heads? 100% Because it did!!! So the odds of the last toss and the next toss both being heads are now 100%*50%=50%. The odds of these two tosses both being heads are not 25% any more. The cumulative probability has to be recalculated based on how far into the sequence we have progressed. That recalculation proves that the chance of heads is not improving, the longer you wait for a sequence.
Quote:

. . .the \$100 I will throw at it will not dent my bankroll enough to have any impact. . . . earn some craps comps, minimal investment and a little fun and maybe walk away with a profit a few times

Fun is good. Comps are good Profit is good. Deluding oneself about probability is bad. waiting for a streak to get established is pointless.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7481
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 14th, 2017 at 1:56:37 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

First: I confess to not playing craps and not knowing how the betting works.

Ok, some more applicable maths.

You walk to the table, not knowing what just happened.
Probability that next roll will be non-field is 20/36=55.56%
Probability that all of the next 6 rolls will be non-field is (20/36)^6=0.02940119411 = 2.9%
You wait until you see 4 consecutive non-field results.
time passes
.
more time passes
.
result: four non-field results just happened.
The probability that the roll that just happened was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the roll immediately before that was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the roll immediately before that was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the roll immediately before that was non-field is 100%, because that's what you saw.
The probability that the next roll will be non-field is 20/36
The probability that the roll after the next roll roll will be non-field is 20/36
The probability that all 6 rolls will be non-field ( having already watched 4 of them land as non-field ) will be:-
100%*100%*100%*100%*55.56%*55.56%=0.3086419753 or 31% It is not 2.9%
Remember, this is not just any old 6 rolls, it is any six rolls where the first four were non-field.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
troopscott
• Posts: 394
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
April 14th, 2017 at 6:10:46 AM permalink
Quote: DeMango

TS; Who makes the craps machine and what are the limits?

Interblock I believe. I will check if I go to the casino today

They have two machines. One is \$10-10000 the other is 25-10000. Will double check those as well
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22291
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
Thanked by
April 14th, 2017 at 11:12:18 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Tnx. Not doing it for a living

WHY NOT?

Ya, ya, I know, you don't want to tip off the casinos, casinos are too smokey, positive energy turns negative if you get too greedy, cuts into your dress up time, money is not everything, blah blah blah.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
April 14th, 2017 at 11:19:37 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

WHY NOT?

Ya, ya, I know, you don't want to tip off the casinos, casinos are too smokey, positive energy turns negative if you get too greedy, cuts into your dress up time, money is not everything, blah blah blah.

Again, you seem to have it all figured out! What is your win/loss for the past few years?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
April 14th, 2017 at 11:20:48 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Again, you seem to have it all figured out! What is your win/loss for the past few years?

Actually, I already have a good idea, so no need to answer .
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22291
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
April 15th, 2017 at 10:37:08 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Again, you seem to have it all figured out! What is your win/loss for the past few years?

I think I already mentioned, I don't really play craps because there's rarely a good opportunity that is +EV.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
April 16th, 2017 at 11:05:03 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think I already mentioned, I don't really play craps because there's rarely a good opportunity that is +EV.

What would you consider that 'rare good opportunity' to be in craps? What table games do you play?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
mamat
• Posts: 494
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
April 16th, 2017 at 11:03:41 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

What would you consider that 'rare good opportunity' to be in craps? What table games do you play?

Some +EV opportunities in craps (without dice-setting skills).

(1) match plays
(2) special promotions altering the rules
(3) loss rebates
(4) back-end Free Play (FP), Promotions, and other benefits.

It may be useful to know how credit is given for
(a) bets against each other (Pass & Don't Pass & 12)
(b) odds
(c) come bets

It is possible for the theoretical loss on \$X of craps action to be less than the amount of Free Play given over the next 4-7 months.
However, the amount of time required to come back & pick up FP (and the amount of action required so that the FP is not revoked), may make a situation worth very little (in hourly rate).
AxelWolf
• Posts: 22291
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
April 17th, 2017 at 1:01:14 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

What would you consider that 'rare good opportunity' to be in craps? What table games do you play?

I think mamat summed it up fairly well.

Trust me, if there was a way to beat 1000 of casinos practically heat free, 24/7 365 on craps, roulette, baccarat with some betting system or positive energy mumbo-jumbo, I wouldn't be spending time talking to you here.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
WatchMeWin
• Posts: 1636
Joined: May 20, 2011
April 17th, 2017 at 5:57:59 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think mamat summed it up fairly well.

Trust me, if there was a way to beat 1000 of casinos practically heat free, 24/7 365 on craps, roulette, baccarat with some betting system or positive energy mumbo-jumbo, I wouldn't be spending time talking to you here.

You stated that there are rare good opportunities and threats. This implies that there are some good opportunities to win spirit I just was asking you what those rare circumstances are that you believe to be good.? Incense you are the smartest guy in the room, I just wanted to know what table games you play?
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
troopscott
• Posts: 394
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
April 20th, 2017 at 1:11:21 PM permalink
so I went in and played my "system" a little last night at the casino. after about an hour of play I was up about \$40. During that time I should have just been betting the field every number with some parlays lol, There was a streak of 16 straight field numbers including 3 "12's and 2 "2's" My betting chances were few and far between with what seemed to be field numbers every couple rolls which led me to fooling around with the hardways. The "organic" craps machine keeps track of how many rolls a number has been rolled without a hardway. My little system I played decided to wait 100 rolls for a number to not be thrown hard and then put \$10 on it. That number became the 10. , 7 came, went to 15, 7 came, went to 30 number made easy and in an final act of defiance and stupidity (around 130 rolls now) I went to \$60 first roll hard 10 take the money and leave that little jewel alone for \$10 hardways.

The other thing I noted while I was there it seemed to be every 7-8 rolls a 2,3,11,12 was rolled. My math says that is about right(should be every 6 I believe). I began tinkering with quite a bit of success waiting 8 rolls for no horn bet numbers and then putting \$4 out. at 11 rolls(3 since the betting start) I went to \$2 each and the longest it got was to 13 at which point I had \$3 per number (\$12 total) when the 12 came which was a nice payday. Generally I would hit it in the first couple rolls.

The machines are \$10-10k and \$25-10k the 25 machine is usually pretty empty or 1-2 people most at it

Anyway I know these are long term losers just looking at them checking out the potential for a short term score here and there
LuckyPhow
• Posts: 698
Joined: May 19, 2016
April 20th, 2017 at 2:02:05 PM permalink
Quote: troopscott

so I went in and played my "system" a little last night at the casino. after about an hour of play I was up about \$40.

Even if they aren't supposed to work, it can be fun sometimes to play some type of "system." But, you are indeed a brave man to boast about it here. Don't say you weren't warned.

Quote: troopscott

The other thing I noted while I was there it seemed to be every 7-8 rolls a 2,3,11,12 was rolled. My math says that is about right(should be every 6 I believe).

Hmmm... 2, 3, 11, and 12 were hitting a lot? Mike McGuire wrote a book called, The Ultimate Dice Book: A Player's Guide to Craps. He correctly notes any "system" with worse than a 1.5% house advantage "contradicts all common sense." But, an advertising executive who has done work for McGuire consistently pays for his secretary's salary using a 3-or-11 martingale. McGuire reports the ad exec only bets this system when gambling, and McGuire reports seeing him win with it. Of course, another gambler's "mileage" may vary.

Choose one, the 3 or the 11. Bet \$5. If it loses, increase your bet by \$1. Rinse & repeat. Profit from a win varies, starting at \$75 for a hit on the first roll. Profit increases roll by roll to rolls 12 and 13, where the gambler wins \$130 in profit. After that, profit starts to decline a little each roll, until roll 27, where total profit is \$10. If 3 or 11 are hitting and you enjoy "testing" different systems, this one has a total out-of-pocket cost of under \$500. But, the gambler is playing against one of the high house-advantage bets.

Quote: troopscott

Anyway I know these are long term losers just looking at them checking out the potential for a short term score here and there

Amen. And, if you aren't an optimist, you probably shouldn't be in a casino anyway, right?
troopscott
• Posts: 394
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
April 20th, 2017 at 7:27:45 PM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Even if they aren't supposed to work, it can be fun sometimes to play some type of "system." But, you are indeed a brave man to boast about it here. Don't say you weren't warned.

Hmmm... 2, 3, 11, and 12 were hitting a lot? Mike McGuire wrote a book called, The Ultimate Dice Book: A Player's Guide to Craps. He correctly notes any "system" with worse than a 1.5% house advantage "contradicts all common sense." But, an advertising executive who has done work for McGuire consistently pays for his secretary's salary using a 3-or-11 martingale. McGuire reports the ad exec only bets this system when gambling, and McGuire reports seeing him win with it. Of course, another gambler's "mileage" may vary.

Choose one, the 3 or the 11. Bet \$5. If it loses, increase your bet by \$1. Rinse & repeat. Profit from a win varies, starting at \$75 for a hit on the first roll. Profit increases roll by roll to rolls 12 and 13, where the gambler wins \$130 in profit. After that, profit starts to decline a little each roll, until roll 27, where total profit is \$10. If 3 or 11 are hitting and you enjoy "testing" different systems, this one has a total out-of-pocket cost of under \$500. But, the gambler is playing against one of the high house-advantage bets.

Amen. And, if you aren't an optimist, you probably shouldn't be in a casino anyway, right?

Yeah craps is a little side hobby for me. My two main casino games are Pai Gow and NLH poker (live) no internet stuff. Nice little change of pace after long sessions of either of those.
OnceDear
• Posts: 7481
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 21st, 2017 at 12:33:17 AM permalink
Quote: troopscott

so I went in and played my "system" a little last night at the casino.

If it was fun, good for you, but like Russian Roulette, the adrenaline rush of Marty can end in a bloody mess.
Quote:

My betting chances were few and far between . . . My little system I played decided to wait 100 rolls for a number to not be thrown hard

Why? Just WHY? You know the dice have no memory. Why persist in such an unsound practice?
Quote:

. . . waiting 8 rolls for no horn bet numbers and then putting \$4 out.

Again, Why? Don't you know how pointless that is?
Quote:

Anyway I know these are long term losers just looking at them checking out the potential for a short term score here and there

They are medium term and short term losers too.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
April 21st, 2017 at 12:47:58 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

You stated that there are rare good opportunities and threats. This implies that there are some good opportunities to win spirit I just was asking you what those rare circumstances are that you believe to be good.? Incense you are the smartest guy in the room, I just wanted to know what table games you play?

Re-read mamat's post about good opportunities in craps. HINT: They ain't available 24/7, like fairy tale positive-vibes money-management & betting systems. But they actually make money, unlike your fairy tale system.

I don't think Axel plays any table games with any consistency, as far as I know.
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6698
Joined: May 8, 2015
April 21st, 2017 at 4:04:32 AM permalink
Quote: LuckyPhow

Even if they aren't supposed to work, it can be fun sometimes to play some type of "system." But, you are indeed a brave man to boast about it here. Don't say you weren't warned.Amen. And, if you aren't an optimist, you probably shouldn't be in a casino anyway, right?

Your unconventional comments about system players are somewhat interesting. I actually believe that a 4 stage patience martingale might be plus EV in baseball betting in a situation where a .500 team has lost 6 in a row. You would basically be betting that they won't lose 10 in a row. There are 2 things on your side. First, the fact that they have lost 6 in a row will cause their odds to be pushed up because bettors will often wrongly assume that a team that has lost 6 in a row is a pathetic team and more bettors will bet against them. Secondly, this team will care very much and be trying very hard to end their losing streak. The opposing team will care less about seeing their opponents losing streak continue if it is not a critical part of the season. The main drawback is if this team has to face a super pitcher with a 2.25 ERA. I don't like to bet against super pitchers even though it will raise my team's odds. I haven't tested it and it would require an enormous amount of data mining that I'm not willing to do, but my knowledge of sports betting and baseball suggests to me that it might work.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
RS
• Posts: 8626
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
April 21st, 2017 at 4:39:26 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Your unconventional comments about system players are somewhat interesting. I actually believe that a 4 stage patience martingale might be plus EV in baseball betting in a situation where a .500 team has lost 6 in a row. You would basically be betting that they won't lose 10 in a row. There are 2 things on your side. First, the fact that they have lost 6 in a row will cause their odds to be pushed up because bettors will often wrongly assume that a team that has lost 6 in a row is a pathetic team and more bettors will bet against them. Secondly, this team will care very much and be trying very hard to end their losing streak. The opposing team will care less about seeing their opponents losing streak continue if it is not a critical part of the season. The main drawback is if this team has to face a super pitcher with a 2.25 ERA. I don't like to bet against super pitchers even though it will raise my team's odds. I haven't tested it and it would require an enormous amount of data mining that I'm not willing to do, but my knowledge of sports betting and baseball suggests to me that it might work.

Your advantage would come from a line being inaccurate // being able to make a line better than the sports book can, even if it's only for a limited time, series, event, etc. The martingale or whatever kind of betting system would NOT be the cause that it'd be +EV.

Here's a quick rule of thumb in determining whether martingale makes a bet or group of bets +EV: "Would I have an advantage WITHOUT using a bet progression?" If the answer is YES, then martingale is NOT the cause of the advantage.

To say the martingale is what causes a bet or group of bets to be an advantage would be to say betting without the martingale would make the bet a disadvantage.

Simply using math, if a team has a 50% chance of winning (or .500) or greater, if the money line is greater than +100 (ie: +101, +105, +110, etc.), then the wager would be an advantage.
lilredrooster
• Posts: 6698
Joined: May 8, 2015
April 21st, 2017 at 4:50:56 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Your advantage would come from a line being inaccurate // being able to make a line better than the sports book can, even if it's only for a limited time, series, event, etc. The martingale or whatever kind of betting system would NOT be the cause that it'd be +EV.Here's a quick rule of thumb in determining whether martingale makes a bet or group of bets +EV: "Would I have an advantage WITHOUT using a bet progression?" If the answer is YES, then martingale is NOT the cause of the advantage.To say the martingale is what causes a bet or group of bets to be an advantage would be to say betting without the martingale would make the bet a disadvantage.Simply using math, if a team has a 50% chance of winning (or .500) or greater, if the money line is greater than +100 (ie: +101, +105, +110, etc.), then the wager would be an advantage.

Everything you said is true. My point is that in this situation the martingale would not increase the plusness of the EV but the fun would increase because the fun of the martingale is based on being very unlikely to lose even knowing that when you do lose you will lose much more. The fun of it is increased because in this situation, IMO you potentially get plus EV (though not due to the martingale) but also you are even more unlikely than average to lose within your progression. I would guess that just about every gambler, possibly including yourself, and most other APs have some fun money set aside in which they are not calculating the bet from every possible angle in order to squeeze the most out of it.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
RS