troopscott
troopscott
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April 3rd, 2017 at 6:23:29 PM permalink
I have read quite a ways and done google searches and can not find the answer here for this so created an account to ask. I can not figure out how to run a simulator to try it outside of what I have done in casino. 100% positive I am not the first to think of or try this so I am just looking for the math and a simulation if anyone is so inclined to help out

Start at a place like Casino Royale with a $3 minimum bet

Watch 4 rolls of no Field bets
$3 field bet
$6 Field bet
$12 Field Bet
$25 Field Bet
$50 Field bet
$100 Field bet

That would be 10 No Field rolls in a row of a bet that has an almost implied probability of 47% if I recall what I saw somewhere.

I understand that last bet would be as the others for a win of $3 however with the Double on the 2 and triple on 12 (or reversed) the casinos in Vegas pay it would change the amount of the -EV for a session

A session would be 1 series of rolls through the $100 bet or the field number hits

Wondering how many sessions a $2k bankroll (10 $200 losses for ease of simulation) could make it through before being busted in theory/simulation

Would be very boring and would require discipline to stay away from other bets but I think there is a little short term potential here

Closest thing I saw was a post from someone who said +-5% it would be 94% chance a field number would come up in 5 rolls (not counting skipping the first 4 NF rolls)

Any help would be appreciated
TomG
TomG
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April 3rd, 2017 at 6:35:50 PM permalink
Should expect your $2000 to last over 15 years if you were to try this once per day
troopscott
troopscott
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April 3rd, 2017 at 8:14:08 PM permalink
Quote: TomG

Should expect your $2000 to last over 15 years if you were to try this once per day



Not sure it would last that long because at $3 bet it would take 27 winning sessions to make up for one losing session. Original bankroll would only handle a streak of 25 losing sessions. just not sure how many 27 session winning streaks you would have
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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April 4th, 2017 at 2:04:58 AM permalink
Quote: troopscott

I have read quite a ways and done google searches

That is a pretty good illustration of how easy it is to get misinformation on gambling. Those trying to get smarter really have to separate the wheat from the chaff from all that stuff that is out there. Your current idea will get beat up here because the idea of it has been seen before too many times. This is your opportunity to either get angry and stay misinformed or get on the track to wising up.

So I sympathize but I'm afraid you are heading down the wrong road. You need to do a better job of this separation of wheat and chaff - in this case you seem to have come across the Martingale. Check out the links below to get better educated on it and other betting systems from the best source on such on the internet, The Wizard of Odds.

All the Martingale is boils down to a system of betting more when you are losing. It is known to have been in existence for hundreds of years under that name and probably millenniums without a name. That fact alone should be enough - yet you may feel committed. Get it out of your system, read the links.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/betting-systems/martingale/
"Baccarat is a game whereby the croupier gathers in money with a flexible sculling oar, then rakes it home. If I could have borrowed his oar I would have stayed." .......... Mark Twain
Mission146
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Mission146
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April 4th, 2017 at 2:39:42 AM permalink
I would first like to point out that this thread has been moved to, 'Betting Systems,' a more appropriate Sub-Topic.

Welcome to WoV, TroopScott!

Quote: troopscott

I have read quite a ways and done google searches and can not find the answer here for this so created an account to ask. I can not figure out how to run a simulator to try it outside of what I have done in casino. 100% positive I am not the first to think of or try this so I am just looking for the math and a simulation if anyone is so inclined to help out



The first thing that we want to understand is that you can determine the expected number of sessions just by determining an expected loss per session. Because you are only doing this once per day and stopping at any win, this is pretty easily done without a simulation. All we have to do is determine how much you are expected to lose, per attempt, and see how many expected attempts that gives you.

Quote:

Start at a place like Casino Royale with a $3 minimum bet

Watch 4 rolls of no Field bets
$3 field bet
$6 Field bet
$12 Field Bet
$25 Field Bet
$50 Field bet
$100 Field bet



It doesn't matter to you whether or not four rolls miss the Field if you have not been betting on those four rolls. The dice are unconcerned with the four rolls that they missed the Field.

Quote:

That would be 10 No Field rolls in a row of a bet that has an almost implied probability of 47% if I recall what I saw somewhere.



Only six of those ten actually matter.

Quote:

I understand that last bet would be as the others for a win of $3 however with the Double on the 2 and triple on 12 (or reversed) the casinos in Vegas pay it would change the amount of the -EV for a session



We will definitely be taking that into consideration, here.

Okay, let's get back to this:

Quote:

Start at a place like Casino Royale with a $3 minimum bet

$3 field bet
$6 Field bet
$12 Field Bet
$25 Field Bet
$50 Field bet
$100 Field bet



Okay, so let's look at what all can happen:

We're going to start with the worst-case scenario, which is that you miss the Field six consecutive times. The probability of that event occurring is:

(0.555556)^6 = 0.02940133523

If that event occurs, you will have lost $196, thus:

0.02940133523 * (-196) = -5.76266170508

The next thing we are going to look at is winning on your initial $3 Field Bet, this can happen in three ways:

(0.027778 * 6) + (0.027778 * 9) + (0.388889 * 3) = 1.583337

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first Field Bet and then winning on the next. We will base this on the amount won overall:

(0.555556 * 0.027778 * 9) + (0.555556 * 0.027778 * 15) + (0.555556 * 0.388889 * 3) = 1.01852248148

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first two bets and then winning on the third:

(0.555556^2 * 0.027778 * 15) + (0.555556^2 * 0.027778 * 27) + (0.555556^2 * 0.388889 * 3) = 0.72016874486

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first three bets and then winning on the fourth:

(0.555556^3 * 0.027778 * 29) + (0.555556^3 * 0.027778 * 54) + (0.555556^3 * 0.388889 * 4) = 0.66206091679

The next thing we are going to look at is losing on your first four bets and then winning on the fifth:

(0.555556^4 * 0.027778 * 54) + (0.555556^4 * 0.027778 * 104) + (0.555556^4 * 0.388889 * 4) = 0.56627219767

The final thing we are going to look at is losing on your first five bets and winning on the sixth:

(0.555556^5 * 0.027778 * 104) + (0.555556^5 * 0.027778 * 204) + (0.555556^5 * 0.388889 * 4) = 0.535107519

Okay, so now all that remains is to combine those values:

(0.535107519 + 0.56627219767 + 0.66206091679 + 0.72016874486 + 1.01852248148 + 1.583337) - 5.76266170508 = -0.67719284528

Therefore, the Expected Loss per attempt is $0.67719284528

If you are starting with a bankroll of 2,000, then:

2000/0.67719284528 = 2953.3684739

You are expected to survive roughly 2,953 attempts, which means you could do this for about a little over eight years.

NOTES

1.) Based on the Expected Loss of 0.67719284528 per attempt and the House Edge of 0.027778, we can extrapolate an average bet total of:

0.67719284528/.027778 = 24.3787474001 per attempt.

2.) If you do want to put together a simulation, then it is easy to figure out the probabilities of each event based on the above. All you have to do is remove the result from each equation in the parenthesis. For example, to lose five Field Bets in a row and then roll a 12 would be:

(0.555556^5 * 0.027778) = 0.00147007734

3.) Similarly, you can also break it down and determine the monetary value of each individual result separately by leaving the net amount in there. For the example in Note #2, for instance:

(0.555556^5 * 0.027778 * 204) = 0.29989577865

That represents a Field Bet of $100 on a Triple Win for $300 less the ($50+$25+$12+$6+$3) = $96 that had already been lost to that point.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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Mission146
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April 4th, 2017 at 2:43:56 AM permalink
If you want to work that into a simulator, by the way, then just make the $196 one unit and index all of the results to that. For example:

3/196 = 0.01530612244

That represents a $3 win indexed to $196 being one unit. The reason $196 is one unit is because you are effectively betting $196 every time you do this if you stick to the system. You are essentially doing nothing more than creating a single multi-roll proposition that could theoretically be resolved in as little as a single roll.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Tanko
Tanko
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April 4th, 2017 at 4:17:38 AM permalink
Ran two trials on that progression using WinCraps Pro.

12 Pays Triple.


12,000 Real Dice Rolls

Starting Bankroll= $1,000

High=1,269

Low= 310

End= 448

Field lost more than ten in a row four times.


7,600 Real Dice Rolls

Starting Bankroll= 1000

High=1,247

Low=336

End=819

Field lost more than ten in a row eight times.
troopscott
troopscott
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April 4th, 2017 at 7:58:52 AM permalink
Thank you very interesting to see the simulations and results.

I definitely don't think it is long term viable strategy but may be an interesting strategy to play here and there.

I think the higher number of rolls without NF i.e 6 vs 4 before starting the progression would probably increase the probability of a positive session and long term bankroll survival but the time involved waiting for the scenario to appear would be longer so less opportunity to wager and more boredom and discipline needed for a longer period of time. I honestly while in vegas last week had a some decent waits to see the 4 NF rolls. Was able to get it 3 times in an hour the one session I tried it. Had watched a lady doing it but she was starting with green chips and hit the 12 at one point with $400 bet. Had about 5k in chips in the rack no idea where she started and she seemed to vary when she would jump in anywhere from 2-4 NF rolls. This was at Binions

I was also playing a conservative 6/8 place bet while there. General way of playing it was after the point bet the 6 and 8 or if one of them was the number to go with the 5. Did same bet for 2 hits (obviously people would seven out at times before I could get my two hits) and get a small profit and then press and or get another number every other hit until I had all the numbers covered. Once I got to 2 bets on a number I would always go up 1 unit on the number or another number when it would hit. Actually had one really good run doing that when the guy had the dice for about 45 minutes at Excalibur. Had all the numbers (starting at $5/6) up into the 40 and 50 dollar range. After about the 5th time he threw the dice off the table they made him choose new dice, he refused took all his bets minus his passline down and walked away cursing them out. (this really made them inspect the dice) Should have been my cue as well to come down. Gave the dice to the next person who rolled 1 number then 7 out. They then let that person have their normal turn.

Had a few other runs that were decent that saw my 6/8 get to 24 and had 10-15 on the rest of the numbers. Never pressed or got a new number more than 1 unit on a hit ($5 or $6) and taking the rest as profit

Overall I ended up quite a bit because of that one shooter but I am more of a Pai Gow and regular poker player with some Roulette mixed in if I see something I like (I bet the 00, 1, 27, 10, 13 only) and only if I happen by a board where it has not showed in 14 spins I will give it a 6 spin go of nickels ($150) and 1 spin of $10 ($50)on each number. Not saying that roulette thing is right or wrong it is just what I do and find entertaining. Always nice to hit it on the first spin and cash out.

My pai gow I take my first win, 2nd win I add $5 as well as every win after that. Loss takes me back to the table minimum. Gets the bet up so I can win more on a streak, and minimizes losses because I always revert back to table minimum. I do play the bonus but only for $1 and only if I have 1 dollar chips. Wont break red for whites to play it

I am a low roller only way I play at the higher limit casinos is if I am eating there maybe a little before or after dinner but obviously with my Pai Gow style which is the bulk of my play I can make my money go further at Excalibur etc vs Bellaggio and $25 minimums

Anyways all my ways to play laid out. Thanks for the simulations
troopscott
troopscott
Joined: Apr 3, 2017
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Thanks for this post from:
Mission146
April 4th, 2017 at 7:59:43 AM permalink
Thanks for the formula and math. I know it took some work to put together much appreciated
OnceDear
OnceDear
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April 4th, 2017 at 12:40:56 PM permalink
Gi TS,
Welcome to the forum,
Martingale can be a way of making a small amount of profit with a a high probability of success. The downside to which is the small probability of a massive loss.
You need to look at the probability of your system, whatever it is, making a certain percentage profit. Generally making a meaningful profit is the objective. If you walk into a session with a $1,000,000 expendible bankroll, you can pretty much guarantee winning $10 in that session, and the next and the next, but what's the point?

That's where my rule of thumb comes in. Applies to any low edge game and shows the probability of winning sessions for such target betting. Maybe take a read through...
http://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/2/#post1370

Oh, and no point waiting for those few rolls in your system, except that anything that slows down your betting also slows down your losing.
Embrace the Variance Good news: I was once at a lifetime Blackjack Profit of £18K Bad News: Gravity prevailed.

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