guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 707
October 27th, 2010 at 12:26:01 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: guido111

This law does not imply that the absolute difference between
the numbers of heads and tails should oscillate close to zero. On the contrary.
For games of chance, such as coin-tossing, it is even typical, as we shall see, that
for long time periods, either heads or tails will remain constantly in the lead,
with the absolute difference between the numbers of heads and tails tending to
become larger and larger."

That is the most critical piece to understand if you want to overcome the typical intuitive misunderstanding that is the gambler's fallacy. As the number of trials grows, the difference between heads and tails also grows, even as the percentage of heads or tails converges on 50%. In actual numbers, the distribution becomes less likely to be exactly 50/50 over time, but more likely to be "close to it." (Edit: I'm not discussing the infinite random walk theorem that says it's 100% likely to reach every point on the line.)

Not understanding this aspect of randomness and betting in a way based on its opposite has led to the ruin of a great many gamblers. 98steps may not even be the latest.

Exactly ME.

The Gamblers Fallacy exists because people misunderstand what the Theory of Large Numbers or law of averages is all about.
Just a simple reading of any prob and stat book will point out the errors.

The percentages converge as the number of trials increase but the actual numbers do not and are more likely to get further and further away from each other as N increases.

Maybe 98steps will take a closer look at how he bets.
He does use a D'Alembert progression and that system only wins as the NUMBER of wins and NUMBER of losses are close to each other. So he must hope to win fast since the longer he plays the actual numbers can start getting further and further away from each other.

A formula for bankroll disaster!
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
• Posts: 664
October 27th, 2010 at 4:19:25 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

Not a nightmare if you noticed the streaks and trends against what you were betting and just bet the don't pass. It does the same as the Pass Line.
Then you could have waited until the Pass Line could prove to you in the short run it could win as expected.
More craps players I have seen lose more money betting against losing streaks and trends. Just a fact of the game.

This, of course, is the OTHER side of the Gambler's Fallacy: instead of assuming a trend in the past indicates a CHANGE in the future, assume it indicates MORE OF THE SAME. At no time does an observed trend give information about the next bet or series of bets, one way or the other.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
• Posts: 707
October 28th, 2010 at 2:24:23 PM permalink
Update time?
#Date/Time/LocationDaySession HoursResult
1October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings \$162Thurs3.75\$162
2October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings \$60.Fri6.75\$60
3October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings \$153.Sat3\$153
4October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings \$175.Sat11.75\$175
October 24: I am taking Sunday OFFSun00
5October 25: 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156Mon0.5\$156
6October 25: 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152Mon1.75\$152
7October 25: 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, STRIP, LOSS -2316Mon10(\$2,316)
October 26: I am taking Tuesday OFFTues00
October 27: No reportWed..
October 28: No reportThurs..
....
....
.Totals37.5(\$1,458)
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
• Posts: 119
October 29th, 2010 at 11:24:41 AM permalink
Progres Update.......

Sorry for the delay in reporting.....the trials of having a 20 year old daughter are never ending. Thursday was a no action day. Wednesday was a good day. Three relatively easy sessiuons, with the table behaving exactly as it should.

10/27 11am - 2:30pm Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings +154. Bankroll Low -132.
10/27 4pm - 6pm El Cortez, Downtown. Gross Earnings +151. Bankroll Low -89.
10/27 7pm - 12:30am Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +163. Bankroll Low -211.
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
• Posts: 6763
October 29th, 2010 at 11:57:56 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Progres Update.......

Sorry for the delay in reporting.....the trials of having a 20 year old daughter are never ending. Thursday was a no action day. Wednesday was a good day. Three relatively easy sessiuons, with the table behaving exactly as it should.

10/27 11am - 2:30pm Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings +154. Bankroll Low -132.
10/27 4pm - 6pm El Cortez, Downtown. Gross Earnings +151. Bankroll Low -89.
10/27 7pm - 12:30am Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +163. Bankroll Low -211.

Thanks for the update 98steps. I am encouraged to hear that your family is coming before your, "work".

"table behaving exactly as it should"??? Careful... Maybe the table likes you, but the dice hate you with a passion...hehe.

Main Street seems to be good to you...

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
• Posts: 119
October 29th, 2010 at 2:54:32 PM permalink
Progress Update.......

Nice Easy run today. Will be one more later. Boulder is quickly becoming a comfortable place to hang out. Don't anyone try to say anything different, this is HARD WORK.

10/29 Noon - 2:30pm Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings +162. Low Bankroll -173.
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
• Posts: 3670
October 29th, 2010 at 4:07:35 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Progress Update.......

Nice Easy run today. Will be one more later. Boulder is quickly becoming a comfortable place to hang out. Don't anyone try to say anything different, this is HARD WORK.

10/29 Noon - 2:30pm Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings +162. Low Bankroll -173.

Jeez, buddy. \$150 a day x 5 days a week x 50 weeks a year = \$37500. Give or take. Go drive a cab, sell cars, get an Amway distributorship. Become a medical transcriptionist, sell magazines over the phone. Anything has to pay better than that. With no risk of ruin.
NO KILL I
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
• Posts: 800
October 29th, 2010 at 7:30:07 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Jeez, buddy. \$150 a day x 5 days a week x 50 weeks a year = \$37500. Give or take. Go drive a cab, sell cars, get an Amway distributorship. Become a medical transcriptionist, sell magazines over the phone. Anything has to pay better than that. With no risk of ruin.

Are you kidding? \$37,500 a year is nearly \$18 an hour, more than *twice* the minimum wage. And I'm going to guess that *most* jobs in Vegas pay less than \$37,500 a year. Cabbies certainly make less than \$18 an hour these days.

Also, 98 would probably tell you that if the system were shown to be a winner, then he would simply make larger bets (once capitalized) and increase his hourly take.
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
• Posts: 5936
October 29th, 2010 at 7:45:32 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Jeez, buddy. \$150 a day x 5 days a week x 50 weeks a year = \$37500. Give or take. Go drive a cab, sell cars, get an Amway distributorship. Become a medical transcriptionist, sell magazines over the phone. Anything has to pay better than that. With no risk of ruin.

Tax free!
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
• Posts: 3670
October 29th, 2010 at 8:18:38 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Are you kidding? \$37,500 a year is nearly \$18 an hour, more than *twice* the minimum wage. And I'm going to guess that *most* jobs in Vegas pay less than \$37,500 a year. Cabbies certainly make less than \$18 an hour these days.

Also, 98 would probably tell you that if the system were shown to be a winner, then he would simply make larger bets (once capitalized) and increase his hourly take.

Hehe. I know, that's why I threw in the Amway thing. But if he's going to complain about how much hard work it is, and there is the probability that he will go completely bust, then flipping burgers is a better return. Stealing money from his parents will give a better return. The \$37500 would only be if his system would actually work, which it won't.
NO KILL I