Thread Rating:

SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 115
  • Posts: 8689
October 26th, 2010 at 9:01:46 PM permalink
Hey- this is now the top thread....
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 119
October 26th, 2010 at 9:05:30 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Does the Stratosphere have a nice steakhouse? I hope 98 asked for a comp.



I neglected to ask for dinner, when I finished and colored up I was so very frustrated and upset, that I took an aimless meander that led me into "naked city". Fortunately my mutterings, loud outbursts of invective, and flailing body language probably convinced all fo the predators that i was a crazy, mentally challenged individual with turrets and homicidal tendencies.....therefore, I eventually found myway back to the Strip intact.

As far as comps go, I did ask for and recieve one pack of cigarettes early in the session. When I asked for a second pack late, I was refused......
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 119
October 26th, 2010 at 9:07:20 PM permalink
Quote: foxfan20

Kinda random question.

98steps, have your investors seen this thread?



They have been informed of it's existence. I do not know whether or not they read it or follow it. My updates on here come only after I have communicated the information directly to them.
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 119
October 26th, 2010 at 9:12:05 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Adjustments have already been made? That to me says you are giving up on your original system and are trying a new system, just starting with a smaller bankroll since you have lost some of your original bankroll. Am I correct, 98steps? Anyway, this thread has fascinated me... keep up the posts...



The Base system I have been running this week is just a tool to keep my primary's money busy while we wait for the secondary invetors. The adjustments I mentioned are just stop-loss criteria added to my Base strategy.

The Full Spread strategy is scheduled to commence operation with a complete $5000 bankroll and $800 win goal between the first and third of November.
7winner
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 198
October 26th, 2010 at 9:34:24 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

I walked into a brutal run of dice. in 8 hours there were 115 shooters, with only twice any shooter making 3 points. The pass line was -43 bets. Combined points made were 40 total with a combined total of 115 points missed. As I stated, it was a nightmare. It started bad and never got a repreive. I have NEVER seen a table run that cold for that long. I did not have well defined stop-loss measures in place on the Base system, as I had never, before Monday, experienced a losing session with it. Adjustments have already been made.


In my 30 years dealing dice, I have seen much, much worse many, many, times.
The longer one is at a Craps table, the more things one will see that have never been seen before.

At least you do document your playing sessions.

Not that you need to know...
So 155 total points established.
EV of point winners: 63
SD is 6.11
3.76 SDs from expectation
Getting exactly 40 point winners out of 155 points established
0.0042% or 1 in 23,634.6
7 winner chicken dinner!
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 119
October 26th, 2010 at 9:34:37 PM permalink
Change of plan.....No session today. Play to resume Wednesday.
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
  • Posts: 119
October 26th, 2010 at 9:59:42 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

In my 30 years dealing dice, I have seen much, much worse many, many, times.
The longer one is at a Craps table, the more things one will see that have never been seen before.

At least you do document your playing sessions.

Not that you need to know...
So 155 total points established.
EV of point winners: 63
SD is 6.11
3.76 SDs from expectation
Getting exactly 40 point winners out of 155 points established
0.0042% or 1 in 23,634.6



Further documentation from the nightmare.........
point 6 or 8: 25 made 44 missed
point 5 or 9: 8 made 46 missed
point 4 or 10: 7 made 25 missed

come out 7: 47
come out 11: 6
come out 2/3: 16
come out 12: 5
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
October 26th, 2010 at 10:40:06 PM permalink
Quote: guido111


This law does not imply that the absolute difference between
the numbers of heads and tails should oscillate close to zero. On the contrary.
For games of chance, such as coin-tossing, it is even typical, as we shall see, that
for long time periods, either heads or tails will remain constantly in the lead,
with the absolute difference between the numbers of heads and tails tending to
become larger and larger."



That is the most critical piece to understand if you want to overcome the typical intuitive misunderstanding that is the gambler's fallacy. As the number of trials grows, the difference between heads and tails also grows, even as the percentage of heads or tails converges on 50%. In actual numbers, the distribution becomes less likely to be exactly 50/50 over time, but more likely to be "close to it." (Edit: I'm not discussing the infinite random walk theorem that says it's 100% likely to reach every point on the line.)

Not understanding this aspect of randomness and betting in a way based on its opposite has led to the ruin of a great many gamblers. 98steps may not even be the latest.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1977
October 27th, 2010 at 12:23:08 AM permalink
ed4345
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
7winner
7winner
Joined: May 31, 2010
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 198
October 27th, 2010 at 10:49:20 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Further documentation from the nightmare.........
point 6 or 8: 25 made 44 missed
point 5 or 9: 8 made 46 missed
point 4 or 10: 7 made 25 missed

come out 7: 47
come out 11: 6
come out 2/3: 16
come out 12: 5



Not a nightmare if you noticed the streaks and trends against what you were betting and just bet the don't pass. It does the same as the Pass Line.
Then you could have waited until the Pass Line could prove to you in the short run it could win as expected.
More craps players I have seen lose more money betting against losing streaks and trends. Just a fact of the game.

98steps totals
Date/Time/LocationDaySession HoursResult
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162Thurs3.75$162
October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60.Fri6.75$60
October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153.Sat3$153
October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175.Sat11.75$175
October 24: I am taking Sunday OFFSun00
October 25: 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156Mon0.5$156
October 25: 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152Mon1.75$152
October 25: 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, STRIP, LOSS -2316Mon10($2,316)
October 26: I am taking Tuesday OFFTues00
October 27: coming soonWed..
.Totals37.5($1,458)
7 winner chicken dinner!

  • Jump to: