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guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 3:13:12 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Progress Update.......

I have been having meetings with investors today. Final decision is to continue.

We move forward with high hopes that the next losing session will not show soon.



I agree with 7winner.
You are not playing with your full bankroll and session win goal as you started out in this thread.
From the table above, you still must have $3500 left.
Go for it!

Your FIRST post:
"Thru fairly extensive testing it is trending at 95% effectiveness, winning between 500-800 (average win 700) on 19 out of 20 sessions, losing +/-4500 on the one session."

2 winning sessions back to back puts your bankroll back in the black!
Go for it!
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 4:16:34 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Just a quick note---Despite my confidence in my own strategies, I also agree that virtually everything being sold as a system is most probably garbage. I have only seen a couple which others have shown me while asking my opinion. I have never seen anything from anyone else that wasn't full of holes. For the record, I am NOT in general a "system supporter". In my opinion, anyone selling something as "fool-proof", "guaranteed winner", or any of the other tag lines they use to indicate that you can not lose with their information, is merely attempting to fleece someone.



What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 5:22:31 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

I acknowledge that over the long run, my wins vs. losses would approximate 50/50, not that profit would. Over 1000 such coin toss wagers, is it reasonable to anticipate approximately 500 wins and 500 losses?


I see where 98steps has gone wrong in his betting thinking.
He must have skipped over this in his studies and teachings.

Oh so wrong!

Only 2.52% or 1 in 39.6 groups of 1,000 coin tosses.

500/500 is the expected value.

standard deviation is 15.81, so
68% of the time you can expect between 484-516
95% between 468-532
99.7% between 452-548
The Law of Large Numbers or law of averages states that the percentages will get closer and closer to expectation, NOT the absolute difference.

From the book:Understanding Probability. by Henk Tijms page 17 ( an excellent book!)
"It is the case, however, that as the number of tosses increases, the fractions (percentages) of heads
and tails should be about equal, but that is guaranteed only in the long run.
In the theory of probability, this fact is known as the law of large numbers.

Just as the name implies, this law only says something about the game after a large
number of tosses.
This law does not imply that the absolute difference between
the numbers of heads and tails should oscillate close to zero. On the contrary.
For games of chance, such as coin-tossing, it is even typical, as we shall see, that
for long time periods, either heads or tails will remain constantly in the lead,
with the absolute difference between the numbers of heads and tails tending to
become larger and larger."

Quote: 98steps

10/25 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, ???? (Where is Strat Classified as being?). LOSS -2316. Pass Line -43 bets. All wager groups behind considerably.


More clues to 98steps system
(The pass line -43 bets.)
Sure looks like 98steps is a believer in the closeness of the absolute difference in a series of trials.
This spells out total failure for his system.
Pass Line with odds and Buy 4/10 with progressions are not a 50/50 bet.

Time for that refresher course on the Law of Large Numbers...
and while 98 you are at that, look into what is know as a "Random Walk".

You have $3500 bankroll left!
Go for it!
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 5:30:08 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?



Quote: 98steps

Provided that he and I are able to come to agreement regarding the restraints to be applied to the challenge, i.e. odds, vig, and the application of my stop-loss requirements, I most certainly will accept his challenge. I will be accepting his challenge at the offered level of $1000 to $10,000.

I have every confidence that my system will bear out over the long run, provided that real world restraints are in place. It is my intention to use his $10,000 to bankroll my Vegas endeavers, and intend to publish my system in 1-3 years.



looks like 98 uses a stop-loss.
may have saved his bankroll
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 26th, 2010 at 5:35:30 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

What in the world happened to get you stomped so badly? Don't you have a stop-loss?



I recall the system requried "sit-outs". It was not specified for the non-programmer's what the conditions were for sitting-out, nor starting up again.

I have not played at the Stratophere in several years. Is there anything odd about their game? That was a nice "one and done" hit at Main Street. Too bad, you could not build upon it.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 5:39:19 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I recall the system requried "sit-outs". It was not specified for the non-programmer's what the conditions were for sitting-out, nor starting up again.

I have not played at the Stratophere in several years. Is there anything odd about their game? That was a nice "one and done" hit at Main Street. Too bad, you could not build upon it.



The Strat does have Regular Craps and Crapless Craps.
I hope he knew the difference.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 5:50:33 PM permalink
Quote: 7winner

98steps,
You were looking for investors at the beginning of your thread.
You found them

You had a 95% win rate, over 200 sessions with a $5000 bank and $600 average session wins.
You are doing everything WRONG!
Why are you now doing a "Base" play?
$2600 bankroll and $150 session win. That is nothing what you have been doing before.


I see your point 7winner.
In programming WinCraps for 98steps, 98 used a $5000 bankroll and a $800 win goal. (That is why he was able to average $700 per win session)
He has a Stop loss of $xxxx, so he is prepared to lose big.
There are other session stop points depending on the outcomes of the table.

I am interested and also confused why he is following, as he says a "Base" strategy.
Just cutting the numbers in half, should be a $2500 bankroll with a $400 win goal. That should be giving him a $350 average per session win.

I guess we have to hold tight and wait for his replies.
Quote: 7winner


Date/Time/LocationDaySession HoursResult
October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162Thurs3.75$162
October 22. 9:30am - 4:15pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $60.Fri6.75$60
October 23. 1:30pm - 4:30pm. Eastside Cannery, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $153.Sat3$153
October 23. 5:45pm - 5:30am. Boulder Station, Boulder Highway. Gross Earnings $175.Sat11.75$175
October 24: I am taking Sunday OFFSun00
October 25: 11am-11:30am. Main Street Station, Downtown. Gross Earnings +156Mon0.5$156
October 25: 12:30pm - 2:15pm. Golden Gate Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings +152Mon1.75$152
October 25: 4pm - 2am. Stratosphere, STRIP, LOSS -2316Mon10($2,316)
....
....
.Totals37.5($1,458)


Nice table.
Not so nice results.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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October 26th, 2010 at 5:53:24 PM permalink
Does the Stratosphere have a nice steakhouse? I hope 98 asked for a comp.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 6:08:57 PM permalink
Quote: nope27



Try to code and understand this one:
As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is 2 standard deviations or more (but less than 2.5 standard deviations) below the expected mean (edit: of the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%))
and the next roll is a come-out roll. Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $40 each , Lay the 5&9 for $60 each, Lay the 6&8 for $60 each. Bet $25 on the pass line.
OR...even easier
As soon as the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%) is more than 2.5 standard deviations below the expected mean (edit: of the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%))
and the next roll is a come-out roll and the last roll was a #7. (edit: meaning that while the last roll was a 7 but the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls is STILL more than 2.5 standard deviations below the expected mean of the cumulative frequency for the #7 for 4 rolls (51.77%))...
Then Lay the 4 and 10 for $100 each , Lay the 5&9 for $120 each, Lay the 6&8 for $150. Bet $50 on the pass line.


What is this?

I also see goatcabin asked the same question.

You start a new thread with this, my friend, and you will find out how your understanding of English is not as good as you think.
You will become even more frustrated with "Us Americans".

Since I know WHAT you are trying to say and see what you have TRIED to say, oh my.
My only advise, if you want some, is not to add the "standard deviation" into the equation. Everyone knows what SD is, you are using it in such a different way.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
foxfan20
foxfan20
Joined: Oct 5, 2010
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October 26th, 2010 at 6:16:23 PM permalink
Kinda random question.

98steps, have your investors seen this thread?

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