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MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 2:27:28 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

In no case will he ever give MichaelBlueJay the money he owes him.



Yet again, 98steps doesn't owe me any money.

This is getting tiresome.
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 22nd, 2010 at 2:34:59 AM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

No, we will never get to see his actual results. He may post something, but it will be fiction:

1. He actually believes he has a winning system, whatever simulation software he uses will disprove that, and he will quietly fade away. Or, post that he has "proved" that his system is a winner.

2. He has duped enough people to put up some money, and that money is now snugly in his pocket--he no more intends to go to Vegas and "test" his "system" with it than he intends to fly to the moon. He will post some more dissembling nonsense and then disappear.

3. He believes he has a winning system, he has actual backers who are equally stupid, and he will present some casino with $5,000. He will post something to the effect that he wasn't able to properly test his system because of sunspots or witches or something.

In no case will he ever give MichaelBlueJay the money he owes him.

The man--I repeat--is a fraud. He's even fooled the Wiz, which is saying something. Bullshit+ a personable manner will get you far in this world.



Wow....such animosity.....whatever I have done to offend you in such a manner, I sincerely apologize for. I do not believe I have ever posted any statement which would cause you to question my integrity.

In response to your points........

1. I do believe that I have a workable, winning strategy. When I have run into challenges with simulation software I have not "quietly faded away", I have acknowledged the challenges openly in this forum. I have not posted, nor will I, that my system is "proven". When I have made the necessary adjustments so that I have an expectation of winning the challenge, I will present it to Mr. Bluejay. I will let him state that it is proven or not, when we complete the challenge.

2. You are blatantly calling me a thief. I take offense. My negotiations with my Investors are complete, I am operating my systems to the letter of the agreements with those investors. Not only do I intend to go to Vegas, I am already there.

3. "sunspots or witches". This does not even warrant a rebuttal.
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
  • Threads: 4
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October 22nd, 2010 at 2:42:35 AM permalink
Progress Update....

First night in Vegas sees positive results. My "Base" Strategy is designed to be slow and effective, risking a minimal amount of bankroll. My target earnings for a "Base" Session is only $150. Expected time commitment is an average of 3-4 hours.

October 21. 7:45pm - 11:30pm. El Cortez Casino, Downtown. Gross Earnings $162
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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October 22nd, 2010 at 4:22:19 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

My math background is relatively solid. At Boise State University I studied and tutored both Calculus and Statistics. The students I worked with went from an average grade of 52% to an average grade of 87%. I tutored 32 students thru Statistics and Probability, every one of which improved their performance. 31 of them went from failing grades to C's or better. 1 student went from failing 32% to passing with a D 61%.



I'm sure at least one of your students asked you to explain the Central Limit Theorem. Care to take a crack at it, and how it doesn't seem to apply to your system?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
  • Threads: 39
  • Posts: 3564
October 22nd, 2010 at 6:06:55 AM permalink
How exciting... this thread is back! I now have something to check again during breaks :)
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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October 22nd, 2010 at 7:07:57 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Actually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.



I think that when all the rhetoric is peeled away, and taking into account that you do not deny the reality of the arithmetic, what you are actually saying is that with a little luck at the beginning you can win enough so that the system will show a net positive, assuming there will be a finite end. The odds are slightly against that happening, but it could happen.
NO KILL I
atlarson
atlarson
Joined: Oct 13, 2010
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 9
October 22nd, 2010 at 8:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Actually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.


So for each individual bet, I think that means you agree that it can be modeled as a random variable with negative mean, independent of any other bets. Is that correct?

Then your overall results will be the sum of many such random variables. The overall mean will be the sum of the means of the individual bets. The mean of your overall results will therefore also be negative, since the sum of negative numbers is always negative.

You seem to reject that, though. What step in this reasoning do you think is wrong? Can you indicate the first sentence that you disagree with, maybe?

Or do you agree that the mean of your overall results will be negative, but believe that you still somehow can come out ahead? If so, in what sense? (For example, do you believe that even though the mean of your overall results is negative, you still have a system where if everyone in the world started playing that way, the casinos would all go bankrupt?)
thecesspit
thecesspit
Joined: Apr 19, 2010
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  • Posts: 5936
October 22nd, 2010 at 9:06:27 AM permalink
Quote: Mosca

I think that when all the rhetoric is peeled away, and taking into account that you do not deny the reality of the arithmetic, what you are actually saying is that with a little luck at the beginning you can win enough so that the system will show a net positive, assuming there will be a finite end. The odds are slightly against that happening, but it could happen.



Playing through around a $1 million on pass line with x3 odds at $10 a shot, there's a 25% chance you'll end up a net winner.

(http://www.winnergambling.com/casino-tools/return-and-variance-calculator/)

It's not necessarily a good risk/return investment but I can see why someone might chance it.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
guido111
guido111
Joined: Sep 16, 2010
  • Threads: 10
  • Posts: 707
October 22nd, 2010 at 9:36:36 AM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

Playing through around a $1 million on pass line with x3 odds at $10 a shot, there's a 25% chance you'll end up a net winner.

It's not necessarily a good risk/return investment but I can see why someone might chance it.



The Bluejay challenge is not for $1 million wagered.
$1 million can be a lifetime amount of play.

It is 1 Billion rounds, each round having at least 1 resolved wager.

at $1 min bet that is a minimum $1billion dollars wagered.
98steps has said he makes the odds bet. So the amount wagered is even higher than $1 billion.

at .374% HA that still becomes a very large expected loss
and no amount of "good luck" or variance can overcome that hole.

I do stand corrected.There is a chance. My Excel can not go out past 30 points.

at 15811.278 standard deviation of 1 billion pass line bets
118.27 SD need to be made up to show a profit.

1 billion is a very large number. We hear about it every day but really do not understand how large it really is.
98steps will find he can win in casinos, the short run, but never beat the challenge.
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 65
  • Posts: 3412
October 22nd, 2010 at 9:42:46 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Actually what I am saying is that I can overcome the negative expectation by the use of specific bet selection, systematic betting progressions and intelligent disciplined application of bankroll management constraints.

My math background is relatively solid. At Boise State University I studied and tutored both Calculus and Statistics. The students I worked with went from an average grade of 52% to an average grade of 87%. I tutored 32 students thru Statistics and Probability, every one of which improved their performance. 31 of them went from failing grades to C's or better. 1 student went from failing 32% to passing with a D 61%.



Those two statements could not possibly both be true and come from the same person.

What you are saying is equivalent to someone saying they were a university chemistry professor, but they believe in alchemy--or phlogiston. Or a university biologist who believes in spontaneous generation. Or a geneticist who believes in Lysenko's theories. Anyone with any kind of university background in mathematics--ESPECIALLY statistics--would realize the utter futility of what you're trying to do, and consequently would not waste his time or money attempting it.

Boise isn't too far from Reno...I hope your students didn't blow their tuition money...
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw

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