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mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 11th, 2010 at 12:56:41 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay


Finally, no apology to me is necessary. I tried to talk 98 out of going through with the challenge repeatedly, because I didn't want to see him lose his money. I would be unreasonable if I expected him to apologize for doing something I specifically asked him to do.



But...but...but...

Is his money where his mouth is? Did he put up the $1,000???
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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October 11th, 2010 at 1:08:59 PM permalink
I think the whole thing has been entertaining. I think 98 has been very gentlemanly the whole time. I think MB had a quick stint of rudeness, but recovered nicely and has been very nice and genuinly kind since. And I'm pretty sure if The Wizard wanted to look to confirm, that traffic for the forum has been up over the last few weeks due to this thread.
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
7craps
7craps
Joined: Jan 23, 2010
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October 11th, 2010 at 1:25:36 PM permalink
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Geez, you guys!

First of all, it's presumptuous to think that 98 has disappeared. He said he hoped to be ready by Monday. It's still Monday. And maybe something came up and he needs another day or two. I'm sure he has a life outside this forum. If I were him and still intended to proceed with the challenge, I would be miffed at all you guys right now.


Monday update.
98steps has a final version of his Craps system programmed in Wincraps and is currently testing it for accuracy and I am sure some results.
Quote: MichaelBluejay

Next, i's exceptionally presumptuous of you all to impugn 98steps' motives. I think he was genuinely sincere. I absolutely do not believe he came here to get a free test of his system. He didn't ask for one, it was *offered*. And you might recall that he didn't even accept the free offer at first anyway! Now, in your conspiracy-laden world you might think that cleverly enticing the offer was part of his secret plan, to which I say, whatever. This was all far too much trouble to go to just to save $50 (which is probably what he could have paid to get a programmer on Elance to write a sim, as I suggested on my challenge page). You can believe what you want, but do I believe that 98 came here with a clandestine plan to get someone to write a free sim for him? No. He got *offered* help with simulation, through no lobbying of his own, and he simply *accepted* it.


I was asked to assist first in helping to turn Gibberish into the "Grandma" version. My 2 cents, you still need your Grandma to know about Craps in order to understand it.

I only offered to program WinCraps in order for me to get better at programming in WC, and that has happened, thanks to 98step's and goatcabin's help.
I realize that by my offer and 98steps' decision to accept my offer, the challenge would have already taken place.

Quote: MichaelBluejay

Finally, no apology to me is necessary. I tried to talk 98 out of going through with the challenge repeatedly, because I didn't want to see him lose his money. I would be unreasonable if I expected him to apologize for doing something I specifically asked him to do.


Mr. Bluejay, you are a good man.
We will soon hear from 98steps.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 11th, 2010 at 6:42:59 PM permalink
Hello Everyone. I have not run off to hide in the woods yet.

As of today, I have a complete WinCraps file of my system. Many many thanks to 7craps. Programming my system has been more of a challenge than either he or I ever imagined it would be. 7craps, thank you again.

Currently I am testing the program for errors and accuracy. I appologize for the delay, but feel it is only prudent to accept Mr. Bluejay's advice. Despite many opinions otherwise, I am not a blind system apologist with no regard for the mathmetical aspects of the game. To the contrary, I am very aware of the impact of probablility and statistics. That being said, Short run results of my ongoing tests continue to be very encouraging.

I wish to thank you all for your patience, especially Mr. Bluejay.
Mosca
Mosca
Joined: Dec 14, 2009
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October 11th, 2010 at 6:56:44 PM permalink
I'm glad to hear that, 98. I would have been a bit disappointed if this had just died; I find it fascinating.
NO KILL I
MichaelBluejay
MichaelBluejay
Joined: Sep 17, 2010
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October 11th, 2010 at 7:12:44 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

I wish to thank you all for your patience, especially Mr. Bluejay.



No patience is necessary, since my challenge offer doesn't have an expiration date. Ironically I may be the one who's *least* impatient about the challenge actually happening.

I want to be perfectly clear, if 98steps walks away without accepting the challenge, there will be zero hard feelings on my part. And if he then came back a full year from now and wanted to try again, he would be absolutely welcome to.

In the meantime, I'll wait for the final word from him about whether the current challenge will proceed, whenever he makes his final decision. I certainly understand that he might want to take his time when he would have so much money on the line.
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 13th, 2010 at 11:12:44 AM permalink
Hello Again to everyone.

I have been working with 7craps' finished version of my system in WinCraps for the past two days. While short term results continue to be very strong, in much longer tests I am seeing an inevitable degradation of my win percentage.

I am very disapointed to confirm that I am unable to continue with the challenge at this time. While the system I have developed may be successful over the course of one lifetime, it has proven to me not to be able to stand the test of 1 billion rounds.

I am currently working on making adjustments to the system which I hope will give me more favorable Long Run results. Updates to be posted here as they occur.

To MichaelBluejay- I wish to thank you for the courtesy you have extended to me in accepting me as a serious challenger. I would also like to thank you for your generosity in extending the invitation to accept the challenge in the future. It is my intention to do so when I have my system successfully modified to the point that I expect it to be successful. So as not to be an unwarranted drain on your time and energy, I will not approach you again until I am fully prepared to proceed with the challenge. I will at that time present you with a new write-up that will have already been fully tested. I will also at that time be prepared to sign contracts and deposit my end of the wager.

On other fronts.....Despite the conclusion that my system can not withstand 1 Billion rounds, my short run results still prompt me to take my system to Vegas. As I have stated previously, my research indicates that on a day to day basis I have reason to expect consistant profits.

Since the inception of this discussion, I have continued in my pursuit of investors. At this time I have managed to contract 70% of the necessary bankroll to begin live operations. I am still in search of a final $1500 of investments. If no investor materializes by November 1st, I will be funding that final balance myself. Therefore, I will be starting live operations on the first of November.

If there is continued interest here on the message board, I will be happy to post my daily results.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 13th, 2010 at 11:32:40 AM permalink
Gee- big surprise. Mr98steps- the REASON Mr. Bluejay has the challenge is because you CANNOT develop a system that will beat a negative EV game. So, it is nothing more than blather about you ever having a system that you will fork up the money to have the challenge go forth. That being said, you seem like a good guy, and, yes, I am interested in your daily results. Just for interest, and maybe you discussed this 400 posts ago, how much total investment were you looking for, and is this investment just a bankroll to play craps with using your system? Good luck at the tables...
goatcabin
goatcabin
Joined: Feb 13, 2010
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October 13th, 2010 at 11:47:21 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Hello Again to everyone.

I have been working with 7craps' finished version of my system in WinCraps for the past two days. While short term results continue to be very strong, in much longer tests I am seeing an inevitable degradation of my win percentage.

I am very disapointed to confirm that I am unable to continue with the challenge at this time. While the system I have developed may be successful over the course of one lifetime, it has proven to me not to be able to stand the test of 1 billion rounds.



Of course, your system can just as easily fail in the short term. A billion rounds will reflect the actual expectation for the system. Suppose your system generates 90% winning sessions, with the 10% losing sessions over-balancing those so that you expected to lose 1% of your total bet handle. Let's take a simple example:

.9 probability of winning 400 units = 360
.1 probability of losing 4000 units = -400
expected net loss of 40 units
If you play ten sessions, you have to win them all to be ahead; the probability of winning 10 sessions is about .34.
If you play 100 sessions, you have to win 91 to be ahead; the probability of winning 91 or more sessions is about .45.
Of course, the probability of losing the very first session is .1, not really a long shot.

Quote: 98steps

I am currently working on making adjustments to the system which I hope will give me more favorable Long Run results. Updates to be posted here as they occur.

On other fronts.....Despite the conclusion that my system can not withstand 1 Billion rounds, my short run results still prompt me to take my system to Vegas. As I have stated previously, my research indicates that on a day to day basis I have reason to expect consistant profits.



You haven't learned about squeezing the balloon, I guess.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 13th, 2010 at 11:51:03 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Gee- big surprise. Mr98steps- the REASON Mr. Bluejay has the challenge is because you CANNOT develop a system that will beat a negative EV game. So, it is nothing more than blather about you ever having a system that you will fork up the money to have the challenge go forth. That being said, you seem like a good guy, and, yes, I am interested in your daily results. Just for interest, and maybe you discussed this 400 posts ago, how much total investment were you looking for, and is this investment just a bankroll to play craps with using your system? Good luck at the tables...



The complete bankroll necessary to run my system effectively is $5000. To date I have contracted $3500 with my Investors.

Yes, the sum of the investments provide a liquid bankroll for for me to operation of my system with very specific constraints.

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