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98steps
98steps
Joined: Sep 14, 2010
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October 6th, 2010 at 11:42:18 AM permalink
The contract appears to be acceptable to me. At this time I am just waiting to get a finished version of the WinCraps programming from 7craps so that I can run a few test simulations and we should be ready to go.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 6th, 2010 at 11:49:03 AM permalink
Great news. This has been a very interesting thread, and I am excited to see that the question will finally be resolved.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
guido111
guido111
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October 6th, 2010 at 11:53:26 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Great news. This has been a very interesting thread, and I am excited to see that the question will finally be resolved.


I must agree.
I check in every day, to see the newest.
The RNG posts were interesting but I do not think that it will be an issue with 2-3 billion dice rolls.

No system with a house advantage can withstand 1 billion anything.
Good luck with WinCraps simulations.
I hope you learn something that has value for you.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 8th, 2010 at 11:11:00 AM permalink
Any updates 98steps?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
98steps
98steps
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October 8th, 2010 at 3:30:01 PM permalink
Friday 3:30pm. As of my last conversation with 7craps, he is hopeful of having the system fully programmed and ready to test in WinCraps by tomorrow. I should be able to run my personal tests over the weekend and be ready to proceed (hopefully) by Monday.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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October 8th, 2010 at 3:57:45 PM permalink
Quote: 98steps

Friday 3:30pm. As of my last conversation with 7craps, he is hopeful of having the system fully programmed and ready to test in WinCraps by tomorrow. I should be able to run my personal tests over the weekend and be ready to proceed (hopefully) by Monday.



Great news 98steps. If your test should show a profit one time, and have a loss the next, will you still proceed with the challenge?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
goatcabin
goatcabin
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October 8th, 2010 at 4:42:09 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Great news 98steps. If your test should show a profit one time, and have a loss the next, will you still proceed with the challenge?



I'm interested in how they propose to test it in WinCraps. It they just run it as one big session, then it will either show a gain or a loss, period. But it seems to me to make more sense to run it as a long series of sessions, just like you would play it. WinCraps keeps track of the results of every session, as well as the total. That way, you can see the distribution of all the session outcomes, so you can see what percentage of sessions will come out winners, etc. I generally simulate sessions of about two hours' play, perhaps with a matrix of stopping conditions, and run 10,000 to 20,000 of them.

Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
7craps
7craps
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October 8th, 2010 at 5:40:16 PM permalink
ed431322
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
goatcabin
goatcabin
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October 8th, 2010 at 7:54:23 PM permalink
Quote: 7craps

Alan, you are correct that one simulation will be run as per the challenge rules. gain or loss. And most already know what that outcome will be.



Yes, but that is not really very interesting, for that very reason. I am much more interested in the distribution of outcomes of sessions ended by some combination of stop conditions. Even if the system is doomed to be a long-term (i.e. longer than anyone could possibly play during his/her life), if it yielded a high enough percentage of winning sessions someone might want to try it, hoping to be lucky enough to avoid one of the big losses.


Quote: superrick

yes, Alan again you are correct.
That has currently been completed as sessions of 100, 1000, 10,000, 20,000 and 50,000 on each section of the "Krebs Craps System".



Not sure I understand. Do you mean that you simulated the different bets of the system separately?

Quote: superrick

I will send you my completed WC auto-bet file as soon as it is totally completed, as just one system without known errors and you may look over my efforts.
Thank you for the advice of how to use "while" vs. "when"



I will be glad to look it over.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Woodland, CA
Cheers, Alan Shank "How's that for a squabble, Pugh?" Peter Boyle as Mister Moon in "Yellowbeard"
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
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October 9th, 2010 at 4:43:09 AM permalink
Quote: 98steps

The contract appears to be acceptable to me. At this time I am just waiting to get a finished version of the WinCraps programming from 7craps so that I can run a few test simulations and we should be ready to go.



The challenge is doomed, as many of us feared. 98steps will essentially do his own challenge, find out that it loses, and never pay off Mr. Bluejay. I would have paid an admission fee to watch the actual challenge......

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