PokerGrinder
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May 1st, 2016 at 12:26:17 PM permalink
Rushdl the comments that OnceDear and I are making might sound mean or rude but in reality we are actually trying to help you. If your "system" gives you enjoyment or pleasure good for you, I truly mean that. However the reason that we have both chimed in is because you have this thought in your head that you have actually found a way to beat a negative expectation game which is not possible in the long run. Meaning in the long run you will eventually hit ruin and get financially hurt, and the financial pain will probably be pretty bad.

As far as stalking, reading a handful of threads started by someone on a public forum probably doesn't equate to stalking. More like I was trying to get a handle on your overall thoughts on gambling. Also I don't think you can uninvite OnceDear from a thread on a public forum.

GrimReaper I don't know what you got suspended for but I am sure it is for much worse than my comment. If a moderator deems my comment rude or against the rules I would apologize and serve my suspension but I think you are taking it way worse than it ever should have been. By the way, get away with murder? Really? Are we maybe overreacting a tad? I don't exist here to keep the chip thread going although you clearly think very little of that thread so I don't understand why you read it. I am assuming if a moderator has seen my comment they took it the way it was meant or if they weren't sure they would let it slide because I have been a contributor to this forum for a year and never had a even a mild spat with anyone, a warning or a suspension. I think I have been a good citizen on this forum.

2F as usual I am not 100% sure what you are talking about but I am laughing (with you) so it's all good. :)
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
rushdl
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May 1st, 2016 at 2:40:26 PM permalink
That was an entire waste of 2 pages. WOW. Well fluff is a virtue. Go on ahead. Im still enjoying my Sunday Funday manually not virtually.
TheGrimReaper13
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May 1st, 2016 at 2:48:58 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

GrimReaper I don't know what you got suspended for but I am sure it is for much worse than my comment. If a moderator deems my comment rude or against the rules I would apologize and serve my suspension but I think you are taking it way worse than it ever should have been. By the way, get away with murder? Really? Are we maybe overreacting a tad? I don't exist here to keep the chip thread going although you clearly think very little of that thread so I don't understand why you read it. I am assuming if a moderator has seen my comment they took it the way it was meant or if they weren't sure they would let it slide because I have been a contributor to this forum for a year and never had a even a mild spat with anyone, a warning or a suspension. I think I have been a good citizen on this forum.

I think they call this denial, or anti-denial.
So much bullshit; so little time!
PokerGrinder
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May 1st, 2016 at 2:54:19 PM permalink
Denial? Everything I said was true. You are just looking for a fight where one does not exist.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
TheGrimReaper13
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May 1st, 2016 at 3:14:49 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Everything I said was true.

Who said, eg, that I read the chip thread? Are you kidding! (There is no "why you read it". You or Doc post in it. And your name's up at the moment.)
So much bullshit; so little time!
OnceDear
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May 1st, 2016 at 3:19:32 PM permalink
Hi TGR,
IMHO -
It's for the moderators to assess the comments and behaviour of posters on the merit and percieved intention of all their posts.
PG and I might have approached or crossed the limits of the rules, while we were trying to contribute to the thread constructively. We are at the mercy of the moderators just as you possibly were. That's accepted.
If you previously had a suspension, then I'm convinced that that was based on a best endeavour at assessing the level of your own infringement and the level of your contribution and good standing here. Moderation and suspension is for the good of the forum community. It ain't an easy or enviable task. It's not made easier by griping over or questioning old decisions and second guessing what the Mods are thinking at every turn.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TheGrimReaper13
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May 1st, 2016 at 6:20:33 PM permalink
Credentials aren't necessarily sufficient, but always necessary. That said, I see a lot of funny but persistent math and logic around here by persons without specific higher mathematics or other credentials. "You have to meet 'em," - as prevalent as that suggestion is around here - implies even fewer credentials. The people doing odd things will have you meet them instead to "talk" you into something. (Not to say that meeting means odd people.) Conversely, sometimes the biggest arses in the room are the smartest guys there. But even the smartest persons require proper training and certification to be of practical value. At the least, they then benefit from each other's knowledge and experience.

As for who contributes, and what, that activity has nothing to do with breaking rules, or making up new rules as go along. Dictatorships have a lot in common with casino gambling. Say, the randomness of drunken parents. I guess that some find it exhilarating to "contribute" (win something at a steep price) on such forums. The harsher the casino(/forum), the greater the exhilaration upon a win. And the subsequent "need" to continue gambling(/posting) to experience it again. Beaten wives feel compelled to prove themselves to their tormentors?
So much bullshit; so little time!
rushdl
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May 1st, 2016 at 7:11:29 PM permalink
The steak at the Final Cut steakhouse was superb and the help is awesome!



PorkG I don't think you are that bad don't be so hard on yourself. So you looked up everything I posted on here Im ok with that. Still totally stalking lol, And of course its a public place that's how stalking works what are ya going to do hone in on my private servers? Not bloody likely! Carry on carryin on.
Last edited by: rushdl on May 1, 2016
PokerGrinder
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May 1st, 2016 at 9:14:23 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

The steak at the Final Cut steakhouse was superb and the help is awesome!



PorkG I don't think you are that bad don't be so hard on yourself. So you looked up everything I posted on here Im ok with that. Still totally stalking lol, And of course its a public place that's how stalking works what are ya going to do hone in on my private servers? Not bloody likely! Carry on carryin on.


You are out to lunch buddy. I give up. Your system is amazing and will make you millions despite the math saying otherwise. Anytime you want to prove your system I will put up $10,000 that your system fails in a simulation. As many say in this forum to people with systems, stay hydrated!
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
discflicker
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May 1st, 2016 at 11:52:48 PM permalink
Why can't this system be simulated?
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 12:09:34 AM permalink
Quote: discflicker

Why can't this system be simulated?


It can but then that would prove that it is another losing system. You can not beat a negative expectation game without cheating or a promotion that makes it a positive expectation game.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
discflicker
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May 2nd, 2016 at 12:11:41 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

You know, good question (1.364% HE wont quite cut it), and the computer cant simulate it, but I totally know the odds on the shooter losing and how to manage that information.

I calculated that the HE on me is somewhere between 0.435% and 0.176% right now. I can make it 0.071% if I have to.



Why can't the computer simulate it?
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 12:33:58 AM permalink
Made mistake. Edited.
Last edited by: PokerGrinder on May 2, 2016
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
discflicker
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May 2nd, 2016 at 1:15:22 AM permalink
This is directed to the OP... you said in page 2 of this thread that it can't be simulated, and I want to know why not? And if it can't be simulated, then how did you come up with your "spoiler calculation"? If by formula, then why can't the formula be simulated?

Have you tried to simulate it or not? Have you looked into WinCraps simulation language to see if it can or cannot simulate your strategy?
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 1:21:27 AM permalink
Quote: discflicker

This is directed to the OP... you said in page 2 of this thread that it can't be simulated, and I want to know why not? And if it can't be simulated, then how did you come up with your "spoiler calculation"? If by formula, then why can't the formula be simulated?

Have you tried to simulate it or not? Have you looked into WinCraps simulation language to see if it can or cannot simulate your strategy?


My bad discflicker I misunderstood where your comment was directed.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
rushdl
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May 2nd, 2016 at 7:48:59 AM permalink
Quote: discflicker

This is directed to the OP... you said in page 2 of this thread that it can't be simulated, and I want to know why not? And if it can't be simulated, then how did you come up with your "spoiler calculation"? If by formula, then why can't the formula be simulated?

Have you tried to simulate it or not? Have you looked into WinCraps simulation language to see if it can or cannot simulate your strategy?



Hi Disc, Thanks for the question. First lets begin with the true answer. My system is a negative expectaion system on paper as are all the others. The HE are generally explained above and they are always negative. I do not detail the math on that factor as to not disclose the system base. If you can find out how I get the HE to 0.07% then you might know what Im doing fundamentally.

Being familiar with any simulator it will eventually run out of gas on a negative input expectation, and fill your buffers with a positive expectation formula or strategy. These things are indisputable. Unfortunately this is not going to be helpful at the table where you have to think, and computing devices are NOT ALLOWED.

I play the simulators manually and have beat them all including the one on this website. Next Ive beaten and am still beating wincraps manually.
The system I use, and any other for that matter, cannot be programmed automatically to simulate real life for the following reasons (there are many more):

I hit on some of this here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/25298-do-you-wincrap/

A SIMULATOR
#1 and still champion-There is no such thing as a "real" RNG as these are programs programmed by a programmer.
#2 only has one shooter
#3 has only one day of the week and can not sim low turnout and variance
#4 has no holidays to sim for huge turnout and variance
#5 cannot evaluate any shooter
#6 cannot define different shooters of differeing skillsets
#7 cannot feel the trepedation of loss effecting your bets or NOT as in my system
#8 does not get weather and cannot get moodswings
#9 cannot qualify a shooter
#10 and maybe the best-you and everyone you know will not make 10 million throws in your lifetime. So what good is a 100 million sim for real life?
#11 In real life there are reasons for altering our systems to account for variance (generally the things listed above), but I don't think any of these reasons can be simulated.
#12 cannot think, it can only run a program
#13 Variance is an esoteric word like dark matter and cannot be programmed in any way only spoken of in trepedation
#14 does not simulate reality, it simulates math

I have developed a few ways to fake simulate a few of my gripes listed above, like multiple RNGs running for different shooters, starting new sessions with differeing RNGs for days of the week, but thats not going to really help show a winning simulation. And, they are all RNG's. A negative input will always extrapolate to a negative result. Luckily, real life is just a "smidge" of what you see in the simulator. A good bettor knows when to bet and where to bet. My system makes those decisions automatically and for you so all you need to do is count the payouts for accuracy! Yea!

Finally, With my experience I've managed to find a mod to the variance cycle that changes the winning cycle by 1-SD (or even 2 if you like). To do this seems simple, instead of betting on the dice each and every throw, just bet on the point to arrive or not. So now instead of 1-roll decisions, you have a larger sample of decisions over a small amount of time/throws, reducing the overall variance by spreading out the bad outcomes over multiple rolls! Thats a pretty influential statement. Please take a moment and think about how that effects what your win cycle can now acheive and how often.

Be happy to answer any more questions.
Now Go Get Lucky!


(If you are a programmer of WinCraps we can try)
Last edited by: rushdl on May 2, 2016
TwoFeathersATL
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May 2nd, 2016 at 8:17:38 AM permalink
You Sir,
You are a dangerous man, I now label you officially as a 'Rascal'.
That is not an insult, just means you go into my system....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
rushdl
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May 2nd, 2016 at 8:51:27 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

You Sir,
You are a dangerous man, I now label you officially as a 'Rascal'.
That is not an insult, just means you go into my system....



Thank you. Danger's my middle name. I now await the attack of the simulation worshiping robot drones.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 9:26:38 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Thank you. Danger's my middle name. I now await the attack of the simulation worshiping robot drones.


Simulation worshipping drones or people blessed with sanity that understand basic math?

You believe that the dice care what day of the week it is, whether it is a holiday, what the weather is and the moodswings of the shooter? Seriously? Did you make your tin foil hat yourself or did you buy it at the store?

Oh by the way you said computers don't simulate reality, they simulate math. Guess what math is reality. In my world 3+7=10, in your world 3+7=potato or is it radish?
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
rushdl
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May 2nd, 2016 at 9:45:51 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Simulation worshipping drones or people blessed with sanity that understand basic math?

You believe that the dice care what day of the week it is, whether it is a holiday, what the weather is and the moodswings of the shooter? Seriously? Did you make your tin foil hat yourself or did you buy it at the store?

Oh by the way you said computers don't simulate reality, they simulate math. Guess what math is reality. In my world 3+7=10, in your world 3+7=potato or is it radish?



Every day is different than the one before and the one after. The environment has changed considerably and rapidly, the dice know not what happens, but humidity relativity, physics, light dark, temp, always effect the physical parts of the table, cushion, money, chips, stick and the dice. You need to go outside to witness these things they cannot be simulated on these weak math simulators. They only simulate the math, nothing else.

I don't feel that basic math is understood here so... Lets begin with numbers.
Can you show me a three or an seven? Please, not a chicken scratch or symbol, or a diagram of some apples. Just tell me where the sevens are in the physical sense. You certainly cannot? Thats because its an abstract idea not an object.

Numbers are abstractions taken from physical magnitudes. There are no numbers in the same way that there is no Sherlock Holmes or Harry Potter.

It is absurd to think that numbers are part of a real world. Oh I wont stop short... There are an INFINATE amount of numbers yet a finite amount of quantities of anything on earth. So there, that should compute pretty well for just about anybody.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 9:51:33 AM permalink
I should have realized that I'm fighting with insanity here and never bothered. Math is everywhere. Every single thing you do everyday is math. Drive to work? That's math. Cook lunch? That's math. Using your computer to argue with me? That's math!

Oh and you shut your mouth Harry Potter is real and he did kill Voldemort! (I wanted to join in on the crazy, kinda fun I understand why you enjoy it so much)
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
rushdl
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May 2nd, 2016 at 10:15:48 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I should have realized that I'm fighting with insanity here and never bothered. Math is everywhere. Every single thing you do everyday is math. Drive to work? That's math. Cook lunch? That's math. Using your computer to argue with me? That's math!

Oh and you shut your mouth Harry Potter is real and he did kill Voldemort! (I wanted to join in on the crazy, kinda fun I understand why you enjoy it so much)



Oh that's rich PG thanks for the attempted participation. I'm hungry Ima go math some food!
Romes
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May 2nd, 2016 at 10:23:38 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Oh that's rich PG thanks for the attempted participation. I'm hungry Ima go math some food!

I bet you wouldn't like that math food if the ingredients called for 1oz of salt, but the cook didn't understand math/numbers and added 20oz oz of salt because he "felt" it would taste better ;-).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 10:29:30 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

I bet you wouldn't like that math food if the ingredients called for 1oz of salt, but the cook didn't understand math/numbers and added 20oz oz of salt because he "felt" it would taste better ;-).


Lmao Romes here to save the day. Thank G-D for another logical person showing up. Btw I stole this from an old thread, I think actually posted by you.

You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Romes
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May 2nd, 2016 at 10:56:19 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Lmao Romes here to save the day. Thank G-D for another logical person showing up. Btw I stole this from an old thread, I think actually posted by you.

Hahaha, yeah, I've posted this in 2-3 different threads over the years =P.
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
TheGrimReaper13
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May 2nd, 2016 at 11:27:42 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Math is everywhere.

Best to allow some room for a few more essentials to which we mortals cling in a vain attempt to compensate for our basic concern for, and understanding of, the universe's plan for us. Matter to motion, and back, in time for space.

However, even the mistakes must exist, thereby in some non-mathematical form. Perhaps, time-reversal couldn't occur without some degree of time mixed in, leaving time with a few mistakes here and there. The few anti-particles here and there. Stuff which defies mathematical foundation.

I guess that wannabe Atheists, AP's, and the like, ought hinge their psychological well-being on the flawed sentiment "it's all physics and chemistry". And that it could be worse, when people begin to believe that the math composes them on some unique personal level.
So much bullshit; so little time!
TwoFeathersATL
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May 2nd, 2016 at 11:38:06 AM permalink
Infinite numbers, almost.
Who could argue with that?
Winning numbers?
Now this gets a bit more complicated. Pls go and win. Win little, win big, I don't care.
Pls just win, then report back here, your winnings and losses.
If you did this, reported that is, and the reports seemed honest, and I have no reason to doubt you, as yet.
And the winnings continue to accumulate, doesn't have to be linear, you might discover you have fans...

Take away this if, and that if, and the other if, and you just have skeptics, and that is a good thing, IMO.
I hope you prove the skeptics wrong.....
I'm trying hard to be nice.

Let me just wish you 'Happy Rolls' and happy wagers on the other rollers.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
rushdl
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May 2nd, 2016 at 12:39:06 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

I bet you wouldn't like that math food if the ingredients called for 1oz of salt, but the cook didn't understand math/numbers and added 20oz oz of salt because he "felt" it would taste better ;-).



You need to read the rest of the thread... And pay attention to when the argumentative entity blatently changes the wording of their ex-post facto (PG changing the argument from his belief in physical NUMBERS to the concept of MATH without missing a beat) so that he may pretend to be correct. Although still incorrect. Listed below:

Quote: Rush

Thats because NUMBERS, is an abstract idea not an object. Numbers are abstractions taken from physical magnitudes. There are no numbers in the same way that there is no Sherlock Holmes or Harry Potter.



PGs response is I am insane. Totally relevant to the discussion of non-real numbers. These accusations predate modern math itself. That my friend is a compliment.
OnceDear
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May 2nd, 2016 at 1:32:56 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Finally, With my experience I've managed to find a mod to the variance cycle that changes the winning cycle by 1-SD (or even 2 if you like).


There;s a win cycle and a variance cycle? Cool. Wizard car ride a unicycle. maybe if we can get those three cycles in sync with Rush's biorythm cycles, he will spontaneously start to make sense, or even stop spouting nonsense. Not holding my breath.
For now, I'm just going to loiter in his thread, because I don't recognise the authority of his 86 of me here.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
PokerGrinder
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May 2nd, 2016 at 1:44:09 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

There;s a win cycle and a variance cycle? Cool. Wizard car ride a unicycle. maybe if we can get those three cycles in sync with Rush's biorythm cycles, he will spontaneously start to make sense, or even stop spouting nonsense. Not holding my breath.
For now, I'm just going to loiter in his thread, because I don't recognise the authority of his 86 of me here.


Lol. How come you got 86'ed but I didn't? I feel left out by being left in.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
OnceDear
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May 2nd, 2016 at 1:53:44 PM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Lol. How come you got 86'ed but I didn't? I feel left out by being left in.

bringing negativity to the thread. But not to worry. Positive/ negative, these are just abstract concepts that have no place in Rush's world.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
discflicker
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May 2nd, 2016 at 10:38:22 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Hi Disc, Thanks for the question. First lets begin with the true answer. My system is a negative expectaion system on paper as are all the others. The HE are generally explained above and they are always negative. I do not detail the math on that factor as to not disclose the system base. If you can find out how I get the HE to 0.07% then you might know what Im doing fundamentally.



I don't believe that you have found any way to crack the system. Are you being honest about not disclosing it because someone might copy it or alert the casinos about your "awesome discovery"? Really?
Quote: rushdl



Being familiar with any simulator it will eventually run out of gas on a negative input expectation, and fill your buffers with a positive expectation formula or strategy. These things are indisputable. Unfortunately this is not going to be helpful at the table where you have to think, and computing devices are NOT ALLOWED.



We are talking about programing your strategy into a simulator, this has nothing to do with playing in a casino.
Quote: rushdl



I play the simulators manually and have beat them all including the one on this website. Next Ive beaten and am still beating wincraps manually.
The system I use, and any other for that matter, cannot be programmed automatically to simulate real life for the following reasons (there are many more):



Playing a game that is fed by a random number generator is not running a simulation. You need to program your strategy and use it to play against a standard casino rules game over a long run of testing.
Quote: rushdl



I hit on some of this here: https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/25298-do-you-wincrap/

A SIMULATOR
#1 and still champion-There is no such thing as a "real" RNG as these are programs programmed by a programmer.



That is not what I asked you. You still have not answered my question of why you can't program your strategy. If you want to, you can get a simulation run going that uses a list of rolls that you can sit there and record by hand.

Do you really think it makes any difference? WHAT exactly, is the difference? Is the real Universe operated differently from the randomization of, say, the digits of pi? BE SERIOUS... if it makes no difference, then why are you trying to snowball the good folks here with this statement? This statement is disinformation; it serves no purpose other than as a distraction. IMO, it does not help convince anyone of your qualifications to be having this discussion. On the contrary, I find it best to keep my mouth shut when I don't know what I'm talking about.
Quote: rushdl




#2 only has one shooter
#3 has only one day of the week and can not sim low turnout and variance
#4 has no holidays to sim for huge turnout and variance


This has nothing to do with the EV of your strategy. This is more disinformation.

Quote: rushdl


#5 cannot evaluate any shooter



WinCraps can evaluate your roll history, if you want to know how much you might lose over the long run.

Quote: rushdl



#6 cannot define different shooters of differing skillets
#7 cannot feel the trepedation of loss effecting your bets or NOT as in my system
#8 does not get weather and cannot get moodswings


SO, your system is not a system, its more like a feeling you get in certain scenarios?

If this is true then I understand why you claim you can't program it. A discussion of your gut feelings has nothing to do with the question I asked you... if this is your big secret system, them why are you even discussing it here on this forum as if it has something to do with the mathematics of wining?

Quote: rushdl


#9 cannot qualify a shooter


What does that mean?

Quote: rushdl


#10 and maybe the best-you and everyone you know will not make 10 million throws in your lifetime. So what good is a 100 million sim for real life?
#11 In real life there are reasons for altering our systems to account for variance (generally the things listed above), but I don't think any of these reasons can be simulated.
#12 cannot think, it can only run a program
#13 Variance is an esoteric word like dark matter and cannot be programmed in any way only spoken of in trepedation
#14 does not simulate reality, it simulates math


These statements all violate the principles of statistics.

Quote: rushdl


I have developed a few ways to fake simulate a few of my gripes listed above, like multiple RNGs running for different shooters, starting new sessions with differeing RNGs for days of the week, but thats not going to really help show a winning simulation. And, they are all RNG's. A negative input will always extrapolate to a negative result. Luckily, real life is just a "smidge" of what you see in the simulator. A good bettor knows when to bet and where to bet. My system makes those decisions automatically and for you so all you need to do is count the payouts for accuracy! Yea!



So, I think I finally I get it... you think your life is special in some way... so special that you can anticipate beating the odds. You are blessed with "Good Luck", and the dice are gonna roll your way, at least over the short term.

PLEASE don't take this the wrong way, but you are exactly what the casinos want... a dreamer with cash. My father always told me that a fool and his money are soon parted. Please don't be that fool and listen to the wise people on this forum. You can't beat the odds in a game like craps. The longer you try, the more the house will win, it is that simple.

Take up poker... that's the only game you can win in a casino because its not directly tied to the odds, you can use skill to win the game... you don't play against the house, you play against other players. The house always wins, even in poker; they just take their cut of the action, on average and it works great because of the principles of statistics.

Quote: rushdl


Finally, With my experience I've managed to find a mod to the variance cycle that changes the winning cycle by 1-SD (or even 2 if you like). To do this seems simple, instead of betting on the dice each and every throw, just bet on the point to arrive or not. So now instead of 1-roll decisions, you have a larger sample of decisions over a small amount of time/throws, reducing the overall variance by spreading out the bad outcomes over multiple rolls! Thats a pretty influential statement. Please take a moment and think about how that effects what your win cycle can now acheive and how often.

More baloney; these statements all violate the principles of statistics. Just ask MathEx.

Quote: rushdl



(If you are a programmer of WinCraps we can try)



OH so now you want me to help you program your gut-feeling system into WinCraps?

I asked you a very simple question... did you try programming your strategy into WinCraps, YES OR NO, and you give me this pathetic display of smoke and mirrors? OK, I just looked over

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/25298-do-you-wincrap/

They took the time and gave you exact instructions on how to program WinCraps. But apparently, you blew all that off and simply stated:

Quote: rushdl

My guess is it would take 2100 years to see 100M rolls at 900 per week.

Ima play the short game.

Thanks Steen and Sally for that



Programming WinCraps is easy, however, I am not going to waste any more time with this thread because you obviously want to mix voodoo with simple statistics, and them you want to argue with the professionals here who know better. All I can say is good luck, and leave you with one word of advice...

"Vegas was not built on winners".

(Marty, 03-May-2016)
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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May 3rd, 2016 at 12:44:57 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl on 29th


Lets hope the next streak starts tomorrow. Come on number 1 !


Did it? You've gone quiet on the streak report front.
I hoped to see you making bigger and bigger profits from the latest streak of successes.
Bigger, bolder, bigger, better.
Never mind that your system cannot be simulated. It's a great system and it introduces SD offset to the variance cycle. You need to show more confidence in your system and put your money where your mouth is. Don't just fade into the night when you have made your fortune. Come here and get the Kudos.

ps.
You'll get triple Kudos when you return to admit that the wheels fell off and that your system was worthless after all.

pps.
You'll lose all kudos if you come back and report that you busted out because you got greedy and varied from your system, or that you made a loss because you didn't take enough funds to the casino one day.

ppps.
Just dancing in your thread.
$;o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
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May 3rd, 2016 at 9:38:06 AM permalink
Quote: disc

I don't believe that you have found any way to crack the system.


I Did not indicate that I did crack something or uncover anything. I state pure winning streaks, play data and my bankroll does not lie, nor do I. No you are not getting my system of mathematics no matter how rude you get. I fact you are right this will be our last convo since you took a turn for the worst. I guess I'll give you another gem even though you don't deserve the time of day after that rant... You might want to keep the details of any working system out of the hands of morons, whiners and most of all internet prima-donnas.

Quote: disc

We are talking about programing your strategy into a simulator, this has nothing to do with playing in a casino.


Really? That's your determination? Why do it at all then? I use the games or sims for gaming strategy, not to play games. That's ridiculous.

Quote: disc

That is not what I asked you.


Yes it is, pay attention "longer". See below.
Quote: disc

page 2 of this thread that it can't be simulated, and I want to know why not



Quote: disc

If you want to, you can get a simulation run going that uses a list of rolls that you can sit there and record by hand.


I don't want to, that is ridiculous to even think I would manually write stuff down from wincraps. Learn how to write a checkstack.

Quote: disc

Is the real Universe operated differently from the randomization of, say, the digits of pi?


You've missed the train of thought by about 3.14 minutes.

I Refuse To Have A Battle Of Wits With An Unarmed Person.

Quote: disc

snowball the good folks here with this statement


Suck it up loverboy and play your cards yourself. You asked the question.

Quote: disc

This has nothing to do with the EV of your strategy


You did not ask about the EV of my strategy so... Yeah.

Quote: disc

WinCraps can evaluate your roll history, if you want to know how much you might lose over the long run.


Oh you are a VERY advanced wincraps programmer I see. Are you trying to tell me you figured out checkstacks? From your previous ramblings you seem to not understand the automation and data tracking of the checkstack function of wincraps. Continue writing it down if that will help you.

Quote: disc

#9 A Simulation cannot qualify a shooter-What does that mean?


Any craps player with average experience knows what that means. Another Tell.

Quote: disc

These statements all violate the principles of statistics.


Please let us know the "principle" you are referring to. Try not to ramble a bunch as principles are by definition pretty clear.

Quote: disc

So, I think I finally I get it


Haha, no, you do not get this, nor a lot of other things.


Quote: disc

you are exactly what the casinos want... a dreamer with cash


You are right the casinos love me so much they send me money. That's no lie. There are two going at it right now. One sends $400 and one sends $360 per month.
Next, DREAMERS do not calculate every bet beforehand, and write mathematical betting strategies. DREAMERS do not develop multiple tiers of risk so as to embrace different income levels of users, nor do DREAMERS win anything in the long run.
So NO, I am the cold calculated OPPOSITE of a dreamer.

Quote: disc

Take up poker... that's the only game you can win in a casino because...its not directly tied to the odds


BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH ! ! ! You are listening to your rice krispies too much! Another Tell. No odds in poker. well now. SMH.

Quote: disc

OH so now you want me to help you program your gut-feeling system into WinCraps?


Not hardly you write like a child with no experience (boldly going nowhere) copying what was told to you on the internet just a short time ago. You have no business talking trash here in grown up land. Do listen to your father.

Quote: disc

you want to argue with the professionals here who know


I've argued with no professionals. The professionals and I have spoken and agree on my math. What the "loss-leaders" hate the most (those blowing trash in my thread) is my WIN cycle. Its irrefutable and it makes them mad. There is no fakery. What you see here in these hateful attacks are wanna bees and those who have been broke out sooooooo much that they think they can teach now. Naw, ya cant. See Now, Broke-ness is not a lesson we here want to learn. So watch who you listen to here, its full of advice, empty on success stories. Nothing much more than that. I am not a pro, I work for a living and my gambling system totally supports itself and a lot of other things. That's all that matters. You, in a nutshell, (and your straw-man questions) leading to incongruent answers, do not matter a sliver in my world or THE world. You opened with a decent question and closed out with literal pablum puking all over my thread.

Quote: OnceDear

Did it? You've gone quiet on the streak report front.


I did, you really should read the thread prior to asking answered questions. That's lazy. Id send you the link but this is the thread.

Quote: OnceDear

I hoped to see you making bigger and bigger profits from the latest streak of successes.


Why thank you for that and it was relatively larger than usual.
I put my parents up in the casino hotel for two nights, and am treating them to a dinner tonight but I think gambling will need to wait until Thursday. I've begun a new job (project) and when things are going this great in life its hard to want to cross the threshold of a casino. But I wont waste a single coupon I guarantee.

To the rest of your negative statements trailing off into the night (must have dozed off) OnceDear I only tell the truth you may interpret it however you wish.
rushdl
rushdl
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May 3rd, 2016 at 9:44:08 AM permalink
The Forum software is writing and posting now on its own. It kind of copied the last post. Gone now;
TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13
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May 3rd, 2016 at 10:32:37 AM permalink
Quote: TheGrimReaper13

Credentials aren't necessarily sufficient, but always necessary. That said, I see a lot of funny but persistent math and logic around here by persons without specific higher mathematics or other credentials. "You have to meet 'em," - as prevalent as that suggestion is around here - implies even fewer credentials. The people doing odd things will have you meet them instead to "talk" you into something. (Not to say that meeting means odd people.) Conversely, sometimes the biggest arses in the room are the smartest guys there. But even the smartest persons require proper training and certification to be of practical value. At the least, they then benefit from each other's knowledge and experience.

As for who contributes, and what, that activity has nothing to do with breaking rules, or making up new rules as go along. Dictatorships have a lot in common with casino gambling. Say, the randomness of drunken parents. I guess that some find it exhilarating to "contribute" (win something at a steep price) on such forums. The harsher the casino(/forum), the greater the exhilaration upon a win. And the subsequent "need" to continue gambling(/posting) to experience it again. Beaten wives feel compelled to prove themselves to their tormentors?


Quote: PokerGrinder

Lol. How come you got 86'ed but I didn't? I feel left out by being left in.

It has to do with the forum, not so much you, yourself. Feelings and message boards are a bad mix. Most notably when questionable lofty standards are the soup du jour.

You have to seriously ask yourself about the reasons that you feel marginalized, guilty, or creeped out, etc. Because there's nothing on any message board, or in any casino, that's worth stewing about.

On a much smaller scale, of course, such thinking invokes images of stuff like "the Reverend" Jim Jones' teachings. Perverted.
So much bullshit; so little time!
rushdl
rushdl
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May 3rd, 2016 at 2:07:06 PM permalink
I agree TGR13 Inexperienced gamblers are killing WizardOfVegas. Giving advice in multiple disciplines, in every thread they can click on. Its embarrassing to watch.
So what CAN the noob teachers learn? Lets Start small...

This site is named...

The WIZARD of Vegas

not

The WIZARD(s) of Vegas.

Get it?
This may be too high level, we may need to break it down into colors and shapes first.

On a sane note I say make all known math experts (who aren't bothered by helping out) an admin level avatar. Then they know who to listen to. Just a suggestion I don't need it, they answered all my questions already.
Romes
Romes
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May 3rd, 2016 at 2:26:54 PM permalink
You realize at one point in this thread you yourself said:

Quote: rushdl

...First lets begin with the true answer. My system is a negative expectaion system on paper as are all the others....

We don't need to be geniuses in multiple disciplines, though I will claim to be well rounded with math in regards to gambling and many many different games (craps, VP, blackjack, carny games, etc). At this point you've already told us what we need to know, though YES, I have read the rest of the thread (which seems to be your famous repeating line like we haven't all done that by this point).

I don't care if you win 50 sessions in a row. If you have a negative expectation system then you ARE GOING TO LOSE in the long run. Getting lucky doesn't justify a system as "working." That's like me playing russian roulette 1 time with a 6 shooter and not blowing my head off.. Hey, if it worked once... Would you be willing to try 5 more times?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
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May 3rd, 2016 at 2:36:36 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I agree TGR13 Inexperienced gamblers are killing WizardOfVegas. Giving advice in multiple disciplines, in every thread they can click on. Its embarrassing to watch.
So what CAN the noob teachers learn? Lets Start small...

This site is named...

The WIZARD of Vegas

not

The WIZARD(s) of Vegas.

Get it?
This may be too high level, we may need to break it down into colors and shapes first.

On a sane note I say make all known math experts (who aren't bothered by helping out) an admin level avatar. Then they know who to listen to. Just a suggestion I don't need it, they answered all my questions already.


Rush this is too funny for words. Do you understand even slightly who the Wizard is? Run your great system by him, he will dismiss it using math the same way OnceDear, Romes and myself have. Seriously send it to him, I would love that.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
discflicker
discflicker
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May 3rd, 2016 at 2:40:57 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I agree TGR13 Inexperienced gamblers are killing WizardOfVegas. Giving advice in multiple disciplines, in every thread they can click on. Its embarrassing to watch.
So what CAN the noob teachers learn? Lets Start small...

This site is named...

The WIZARD of Vegas

not

The WIZARD(s) of Vegas.

Get it?
This may be too high level, we may need to break it down into colors and shapes first.

On a sane note I say make all known math experts (who aren't bothered by helping out) an admin level avatar. Then they know who to listen to.


I won't comment any more on your hopeless "system". I knew you would not take my honest criticism well. I PMed to tell you that we on this forum all know better, and to save your money.

Too many wizards?

I met THE wizard in person. He told me that he was occasionally flooded with claims of "winning systems" and he even asked me to bear some of that load, perhaps by providing my simulators for anyone insisting their system can't be beaten. When I met with him, I was not aware of WinCraps, which blows my simulators out of the water, so that's what I suggest to people like you... it is per THE wizard's request, not just clicking every link to make my opinions known.

I will admit right here and now that I am not an expert in math or statistics. HOWEVER, I am familiar with the definition of RANDOM. Looking back through this long thread, everyone has patiently tried to explain it to you, but you don't want to accept it.

The dice have no memory, I swear to God they don't. You have to believe me. It is true. Honest.

I admire your curiosity in the game, and your obvious comprehension of the math involved. I only replied to this thread because I'm interested in the don't game, for example, here is one of my web sites:

CRAPLESS-DONT.COM

Again, with all due respect, you are wrong... your "system" is just a pipe dream, and if you really believe you found a way to beat the game in a live casino, you had better have a huge bankroll and the sense to play for fun amounts that you can afford to lose.
The difference between zero and the smallest possible number? It doesn't matter; once you cross that edge, it might as well be the difference between zero and 1. The difference between infinity and reality? They are mutually exclusive.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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May 3rd, 2016 at 2:49:33 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I put my parents up in the casino hotel for two nights, and am treating them to a dinner tonight


Good for you.
How about you take them down to the casino floor and show them how your system is paying for their stay.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
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May 3rd, 2016 at 3:05:08 PM permalink
Quote: rush

First lets begin with the true answer.


That's Right. First line. Notice how many people did not comprehend the shared information, and decided to rant on a false premis.
Quote: romes

I don't care if you win 50 sessions in a row.


Oh you'd care. Face it. 50 is impossible. I don't think 22 is possible.

So as this is probably the third time you've posted the same thing in my threads where I asked no question of you. You are responding to the many questions that were already answered. Like the line in my quote "First lets begin with the true answer".... And I gave the true answer BUT WHAT? You still feel a need to respond further with out having changed the information? Brilliant attack.

Change the record sir, you already preached that's sermon to me three times. Don't remember those posts? Probably number 2150 or so.


Also you should know that I know your math skills are pretty high and you have carte blanche to tell me or anyone how it is across disciplines if you want. But you might try to remember who you taught what from week to week.

I like your rants, your always right and keep up the good work.

OnceDear you are still irrelevant, a noob teacher, with barely any craps experience, and can stop trying to "matter". Very poor effort. E for effort.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
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May 3rd, 2016 at 5:23:57 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

OnceDear you are still irrelevant, a noob teacher, with barely any craps experience, and can stop trying to "matter". Very poor effort. E for effort.



Official warning as a violation of the no personal insults rule. Normally I would jump right to a suspension, but it looks like this thread has been rather fast and loose with the insults from both sides. I despise betting system threads so forgive me if a don't police the whole thing.

I've also been asked to come here in the hopes I could help. I don't know anything about the system in question -- and don't care. As I've said hundreds of times, all betting systems are equally worthless.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
iamnomad
iamnomad
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May 3rd, 2016 at 6:10:34 PM permalink
To quote Judge Smails in Caddyshack, "Don't you people have homes?" LOL
rushdl
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May 3rd, 2016 at 6:49:38 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Official warning as a violation of the no personal insults rule. Normally I would jump right to a suspension, but it looks like this thread has been rather fast and loose with the insults from both sides. I despise betting system threads so forgive me if a don't police the whole thing.

I've also been asked to come here in the hopes I could help. I don't know anything about the system in question -- and don't care. As I've said hundreds of times, all betting systems are equally worthless.



Thank you. I totally quote that all the time (they lose) and its plainly printed all over my thread. It once happened that a fire broke out backstage in a theatre. The clown came out to inform the public. They thought it was just a jest and applauded. He repeated his warning, they shouted even louder.
So, I think the world will come to an end amid general applause from all the wits, who believe that it is a joke.
rushdl
rushdl
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May 5th, 2016 at 9:08:58 PM permalink
Tonight Completed wins #2 and #3 (in a row)! Had a blast too, I've been working too hard. And another guy won a grand on my repeat 4s.
I played 2 Sessions at a pinnacle property and 1 session at a png on this cinco de mayo. +63 and +39 respectively.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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May 6th, 2016 at 3:57:31 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Tonight Completed wins #2 and #3 (in a row)! Had a blast too, I've been working too hard. And another guy won a grand on my repeat 4s.
I played 2 Sessions at a pinnacle property and 1 session at a png on this cinco de mayo. +63 and +39 respectively.

Ramp it up dude. $102 is nice $1020 would be nicer. $10200 would be nicer still. What's stopping you cashing in?
Two sessions in one day. Both won. Cool. Lucky you split it as two sessions, because as one long session it would not have been half as impressive. Again, why not ramp up: Get ten sessions in per day. If you lose the odd one, those other 9 will surely cancel it out.

ps.
No need to deride my craps experience. I have none at all. You are the guru. Nobody here knows what you know. That's as it should be.

pps.
Still stomping about in your thread, but at least giving encouragement and positivity.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13
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May 6th, 2016 at 11:32:07 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

So, I think the world will come to an end amid general applause from all the wits, who believe that it is a joke.

As long as gambling attracts intelligent persons like Eliot Jacobson. http://engineering.ucsb.edu/faculty/profile/303

Didn't he say he has the Doctorate in Mathematics?
So much bullshit; so little time!
rushdl
rushdl
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May 6th, 2016 at 6:44:20 PM permalink
Quote: TheGrimReaper13

As long as gambling attracts intelligent persons like Eliot Jacobson. http://engineering.ucsb.edu/faculty/profile/303

Didn't he say he has the Doctorate in Mathematics?


Yeah I love math. I got an A+ in calculus once.
JAVA FORTRAN BASIC?

Quote: oncedear

Ramp it up dude. $102 is nice $1020 would be nicer. $10200 would be nicer still. What's stopping you cashing in?
Two sessions in one day. Both won. Cool. Lucky you split it as two sessions, because as one long session it would not have been half as impressive. Again, why not ramp up: Get ten sessions in per day. If you lose the odd one, those other 9 will surely cancel it out.



He who will not economize will have to agonize.
OnceDear
OnceDear
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May 7th, 2016 at 12:37:02 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

He who will not economize will have to agonize.


That's a quote about spending, not investing.

You have the game beaten, or you don't have the game beaten. There's no inbetween.
Are you afraid of losing?
Are you afraid that the warnings written throughout this thread might just be valid?
Give what you ARE doing a chance to work.
Have faith in yourself man. Onwards and upwards.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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