rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 16th, 2016 at 11:54:44 AM permalink
Last night captured my 9th craps night win in a row. Very proud. All from the Don't and free odds.
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
  • Threads: 135
  • Posts: 2178
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
April 16th, 2016 at 11:58:49 AM permalink
Smart play. Hope that means you stayed away from all the other high -EV bets.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 16th, 2016 at 12:07:38 PM permalink
I do, its part and parcel to giving what I AM doing a chance to work. I'll try for the big 10 tonight.
Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
  • Threads: 135
  • Posts: 2178
Joined: Dec 8, 2013
April 16th, 2016 at 1:48:28 PM permalink
Good luck.
terapined
terapined
  • Threads: 89
  • Posts: 6171
Joined: Dec 1, 2012
April 16th, 2016 at 1:57:37 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Last night captured my 9th craps night win in a row. Very proud. All from the Don't and free odds.



Wow
I'm a Don't player
9th winning nite in a row is pretty incredible
Especially with a very slight negative expectation game
I wonder what the odds are of that? Its like winning 9 coin flips in a row
Quit
You are ahead :-)
Stay ahead.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
DeMango
DeMango
  • Threads: 36
  • Posts: 2958
Joined: Feb 2, 2010
April 16th, 2016 at 2:11:35 PM permalink
Let's just hope, on the come out, he doesn't roll 18 yo's in a row!
When a rock is thrown into a pack of dogs, the one that yells the loudest is the one who got hit.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 16th, 2016 at 2:35:18 PM permalink
Quote: terapined

Wow
I wonder what the odds are of that? Its like winning 9 coin flips in a row



Far from it. Define 'winning craps night'? Walk in with $1000 and walk out with $1010? Does that count?

The clue is where he says "... its part and parcel to giving what I AM doing a chance to work..."

If he is going to the table with $1000 and the objective of winning just $10 by some sort of progressive betting system, such as martingale, then his probability of walking away from the table in profit is damned near 99%. to do that 10 times in succession, the probability is close to 0.99^10= 90%

90% probability of walking away on session ten holding $1100: 10% probability of having $0 at or before the end of session 10 ( roughly, but close enough )

But that assumes he is putting a massive amount at a small risk for a small reward. Not a great idea.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 16th, 2016 at 6:21:20 PM permalink
Quote: DeMango

Let's just hope, on the come out, he doesn't roll 18 yo's in a row!


I wrote a system where that doesn't matter one bit.

Quote: OnceDear

Far from it. Define 'winning craps night'? Walk in with $1000 and walk out with $1010? Does that count?


You know that does count. My smallest grind in the "O-9" was a late night after dinner 1Hr session that won $30.

Quote: OnceDear

If he is going to the table with $1000 and the objective of winning just $10 by some sort of progressive betting system, such as martingale, then his probability of walking away from the table in profit is damned near 99%. to do that 10 times in succession, the probability is close to 0.99^10= 90%



I could do that in 10 minutes with $100, don't need $1000.


Quote: OnceDear

But that assumes he is putting a massive amount at a small risk for a small reward. Not a great idea



Not huge at all. My largest bet last night was $132 at risk at once which paid $110. I play don't with Odds, you know the risks. I did however develop a way to offset risk 1 SD and that was the kicker. I started with a 2-SD offset and still won about $35/hr. 1-SD is pulling $50/hr. No offset was pulling $90/hr and I'd have to manage some losses along the way, which was possible but threatening. I can also tell you that if I wagered $132 that the shooter got 3 points and one was a 4or10 before SO.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 16th, 2016 at 10:46:12 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I wrote a system ... I could do that in 10 minutes with $100, don't need $1000. ...


Not huge at all. My largest bet last night was $132 at risk at once which paid $110. ...



Ah. A system eh?

When I mention putting 1000 at risk to make 10, those were example numbers to show how you could use 'a system' to completely dismiss Terapinned's coin flip comment and give genuine 90% chance of ten consecutive winning sessions.

Maybe your 'system' gives you a lower probability and maybe with your 'system' you don't have $1000 in your pocket to begin with. I'm not saying you were not ahead at the end of 9 sessions: I'm saying that could be very likely true.

When I say at $1000 'at risk' that doesn't mean your biggest bet would necessarily be anything like that big, only that it MIGHT need to be if in ANY of your sessions you fell, however briefly, into a position where your OVERALL profit was negative. You mention wagers being 'threatening' Same concept.

Anyway. You 'have a system'. Use it, enjoy it. Get max entertainment value out of it. It's not a +EV system.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 17th, 2016 at 12:08:42 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Ah. A system eh?

When I mention putting 1000 at risk to make 10, those were example numbers to show how you could use 'a system' to completely dismiss Terapinned's coin flip comment and give genuine 90% chance of ten consecutive winning sessions.

Maybe your 'system' gives you a lower probability and maybe with your 'system' you don't have $1000 in your pocket to begin with. I'm not saying you were not ahead at the end of 9 sessions: I'm saying that could be very likely true.

When I say at $1000 'at risk' that doesn't mean your biggest bet would necessarily be anything like that big, only that it MIGHT need to be if in ANY of your sessions you fell, however briefly, into a position where your OVERALL profit was negative. You mention wagers being 'threatening' Same concept.

Anyway. You 'have a system'. Use it, enjoy it. Get max entertainment value out of it. It's not a +EV system.



Awesome. Correct on the -EV. I have a nice BR that rolls $400 over twice a month. I am using an $800 BR now, it seems sufficient.
I made it through session 10 without any issue!
I setup to a Zero SD after 2 hours because I owned the table. (+165/BR1556/bb144). I won between $3 and $24 per shooter all night long. Best shot all night was a 3 pointer... By me. I made two points 3 times out of about 10 rolls. 3 points once. Some clown was there charting the table and trying to tell me the next number. Kind of annoying but he was accurate. I'm very good at what he was doing, but in my head so I wasn't like WOW HOW DID YOU DO THAT? it was more like Really? Thanks man. his biggest recommendation was: "Shooter will either get the point or 7 out" (when it was an 8). DooFuss.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 17th, 2016 at 10:20:25 AM permalink
Quote: terapined

Wow
I'm a Don't player
9th winning nite in a row is pretty incredible
Especially with a very slight negative expectation game
I wonder what the odds are of that? Its like winning 9 coin flips in a row
Quit
You are ahead :-)
Stay ahead.



You know, good question (1.364% HE wont quite cut it), and the computer cant simulate it, but I totally know the odds on the shooter losing and how to manage that information.

I calculated that the HE on me is somewhere between 0.435% and 0.176% right now. I can make it 0.071% if I have to.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 19th, 2016 at 7:44:12 PM permalink
Tonight was a very fun night and managed the 11th crap win in a row with $130 in 2.5 sessions/3.5 hours (about $37/hr) There were two $15 coupons in there and won them both through my standard system bet . Only hit one crap-wagon.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 21st, 2016 at 8:57:14 AM permalink
TONIGHT!
Is supposed to be Number-12 in a row in the craps session win column and I hope I make it! What are the odds? (no not seriously).

With no coupons and no plans to drink beer, I might get bored at about 2 hours and retire. I've played everyday, every different time slot of the day, holidays, during my huge variance in February, played ALL day, ALL night, Sunday morning, before work, after work, stay in free rooms, stay at home... And I'm just not sure where my variance went. Perhaps the Ameristar across the river? lol. Oh, Well now I must admit that my coupon research came up positive and another casino nearby answered my free bet craps-call, so I can now cash in $60 at Hollywood per wk and $40 per Ameristar per wk for a $100 start on each and every week.

May 5th is when those coupons start, so I'm shooting double-duty for a double-win. If I make it that far it will be about my 20th win.

Go Team DP!
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 23rd, 2016 at 11:51:44 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

TONIGHT!
Is supposed to be Number-12 in a row in the craps session win column and I hope I make it! What are the odds? (no not seriously).

With no coupons and no plans to drink beer, I might get bored at about 2 hours and retire. I've played everyday, every different time slot of the day, holidays, during my huge variance in February, played ALL day, ALL night, Sunday morning, before work, after work, stay in free rooms, stay at home... And I'm just not sure where my variance went. Perhaps the Ameristar across the river? lol. Oh, Well now I must admit that my coupon research came up positive and another casino nearby answered my free bet craps-call, so I can now cash in $60 at Hollywood per wk and $40 per Ameristar per wk for a $100 start on each and every week.

May 5th is when those coupons start, so I'm shooting double-duty for a double-win. If I make it that far it will be about my 20th win.

Go Team DP!



Session Twelve went perfect and 13 is now in the books as a win of $145. That's correct you did not misread... I cant believe its been 13 wins in a row with the craps system that I literally wrote, Im beside myself. The goal is 23 wins to beat Grafstein but I already wrote a little higher risk (got a little too easy) version to take max advantage of the house. (I know greed is not supposed to be a factor in my betting, so I nailed it down so its no longer thinking on the fly) I programmed up a spreadsheet and rigged my system up to take the best advantage of a $1000 bet 10x table which is what I play. I am considering using it Tuesday night, the 26th. It turned out that the best bet level turned out to be 10x the bet I usually use, so that will be easy to remember for me and my redbull/vodka. I was hit on a lot tonight, that is always fun but you know I cant allow a score... was still fun Its more fun to try to keep it from escalating. Ran into a another guy trying to use my system but he did not know what to do after a loss on a point. Silly boy only figured out the weird part. Rule number one, home and abroad, I do not teach.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 24th, 2016 at 3:06:36 AM permalink
Enjoy it while it lasts.
If you have a really bad streak, put it behind you and start afresh with ten or twenty times the scale.
:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 24th, 2016 at 8:39:44 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Enjoy it while it lasts.
If you have a really bad streak, put it behind you and start afresh with ten or twenty times the scale.
:o)



Yeah.
I've been playing with their money since 2014. April has so far seen double profit that has been put to use elsewhere.
When I play I use the One-x multiplier and can run a serious game with an $1100BR.

For the newly calculated 10Xscale approach I can do it with $1700BR which I have.
For the 20Xscale approach I'd need $3500 before I would engage the house. The bet profits are stupendous and I don't even think I would want to hang around more than an hour. I estimate about 400/hr on 10 times scale. So you can see how it might be worth it to go 20Xscale and "Do work" in half the time.
Maybe I'll wait.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 24th, 2016 at 9:27:41 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Yeah.
I've been playing with their money since 2014. April has so far seen double profit that has been put to use elsewhere.
When I play I use the One-x multiplier and can run a serious game with an $1100BR.

For the newly calculated 10Xscale approach I can do it with $1700BR which I have.
For the 20Xscale approach I'd need $3500 before I would engage the house. The bet profits are stupendous and I don't even think I would want to hang around more than an hour. I estimate about 400/hr on 10 times scale. So you can see how it might be worth it to go 20Xscale and "Do work" in half the time.
Maybe I'll wait.



Please humour me a little rushdl: What was the total Dollar profit over the 13 recent sessions. What was the highest one and what was the lowest one.

Just so we can get a sense of scale.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 24th, 2016 at 9:48:41 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Please humour me a little rushdl: What was the total Dollar profit over the 13 recent sessions. What was the highest one and what was the lowest one.

Just so we can get a sense of scale.


Quick overview:
$1370 in 13 sessions winning from $30 to $176
----------
s13+145 / april 23
s12+30
s11+130
s10+165
s09+30
s08+156
s07+58
s06+105
s05+84
s04+76
s03+176
s02+97
s01+118 / march 29
----------previous
-94 / march 26
+33
+61
+62
+88
+105
-195 / march 16
+110
+106
-----
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 26th, 2016 at 7:49:09 PM permalink
Took care of number 14, and I did wince but not too bad. Fella through a 4 pointer.
+91/BR1958/bb270/2c15/1c25/2s/3b/HW#14 (+$91/bankroll/bigbet/coupon free bet/coupon free food/2 sessions/3 beers/Hollywood win $14 in a row),
I did some further testing and got some positive information. The table was hot tonight and I sent at least 4 Don't betters home $500 down while I scraped nice little wins. Had to drop $270 on the line once to get my bank. Always within parameters and always a winner. I used the 1SD offset tonight. Was too hot to engage the 10x or 20x but I tested the 2x and enjoyed a larger haul than usual for a Tuesday.
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
April 27th, 2016 at 8:45:00 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

...and I sent at least 4 Don't betters home $500 down while I scraped nice little wins...

Good job? Isn't this like saying "Yeah then RED came up and I won and those schmucks betting black lost and went home, ha!" ...Isn't everyone just playing against the house?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 27th, 2016 at 9:28:11 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

Good job? Isn't this like saying "Yeah then RED came up and I won and those schmucks betting black lost and went home, ha!" ...Isn't everyone just playing against the house?



Haha,

No.

It's No different than using a different lure when fishing with your buddy. Same pond, same boat, same fishes, same mother nature. Different tactics create different opportunities and outcomes. It's still you against the fish.

My copycat bettor was right next to me last night and he also went broke. I on the other hand know what bets everyone is making... I'm like a little mini dealer in my head. I read and study everything and every shooter.

So yeah, my system beat all their systems no matter which one they used, hands down. Yes the house got their money, and I got the houses money. I think we all know how that works by now.
sardonic
sardonic
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 11
Joined: May 26, 2011
April 27th, 2016 at 8:35:24 PM permalink
I'm wondering if it will be much longer before rushdl tell us how much he is asking for his "system" and how to purchase.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 27th, 2016 at 9:46:05 PM permalink
I just realized its a strategy because I'm not selling or telling. I hope to get win #15 tomorrow.
Romes
Romes
  • Threads: 29
  • Posts: 5602
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
April 28th, 2016 at 6:38:51 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

... It's No different than using a different lure when fishing with your buddy. Same pond, same boat, same fishes, same mother nature. Different tactics create different opportunities and outcomes. It's still you against the fish...

Yes, the fish being the house... You're all trying to get the house's money... i.e. like I said you're all playing against the house.

Quote: rushdl

I just realized its a strategy because I'm not selling or telling. I hope to get win #15 tomorrow.

This is where I say "But omg it clearly defies mathematics and beats the house... Please sell it to me... I'll pay DOUBLE what you were thinking!"
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 28th, 2016 at 6:47:31 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

This is where I say "But omg it clearly defies mathematics and beats the house... Please sell it to me... I'll pay DOUBLE what you were thinking!"


I'll pay TEN TIMES MORE THAN ROMES
$;o)
Quote: rushdl

I wrote a system where that doesn't matter one bit.
I did however develop a way to offset risk 1 SD and that was the kicker. I started with a 2-SD offset and still won about $35/hr. 1-SD is pulling $50/hr. No offset was pulling $90/hr and I'd have to manage some losses along the way, which was possible but threatening.


Rush sure knows his stuff about SD offsets. Pity he won't ever tell us more about his magic.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 28th, 2016 at 6:50:58 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

I'll pay TEN TIMES MORE THAN ROMES
$;o)


YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEP!
The house money are the Fish.
Our strategies are the bait.
Catch anything? Or did ya "throw 'em back"? Haha.
Last edited by: rushdl on Apr 28, 2016
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 3616
Joined: May 22, 2013
April 28th, 2016 at 7:51:55 AM permalink
I offer no payment.
Cannot outbid Romes and OnceDear.
The bidding should continue.
I hope RushDL continues to win, and it stays kind of quiet.
Go make some $$, buy that island in the Caribbean.
Then when you get bored with the H&B, pls give me a call.
I can tell some really great stories on the beach 'round the fire, true stories.

Ps : if anyone wants to share 'the secret', I am available via PM
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 29th, 2016 at 3:42:00 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

I just realized its a strategy because I'm not selling or telling. I hope to get win #15 tomorrow.


Came up short on my BR by $300 and was denied the 15th win! I played it anyway $300 light on my bet (basically same bet again) and won. Finished down -$180. This loss was not due to variance... Unless I have my own on mistakes.
Lets hope the next streak starts tomorrow. Come on number 1 !
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
April 30th, 2016 at 3:45:17 PM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Finished down -$180. This loss was not due to variance...


What was it down to? Unwillingness to bring more funds to the session?
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 30th, 2016 at 3:51:46 PM permalink
Basically you get it, but Not even unwillingness. Only pocketed $950 before work and "stopped in" to table 401 on the way home. You would have no way to know this but I require $1250. Supposed to have $12fiddy dau gonnit. I will peel off the right amount tonight I promise.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
April 30th, 2016 at 10:54:41 PM permalink
Nailed it. This is not your average playa. Table 404 ($10 table at Hollywood) rocked the cashbah.
+165/2045/bb188/2c15/1c30/5b/HW#1 (I got a $30 comp for steak tomorrow, thank you Christian)
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 1:23:17 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

(I got a $30 comp for steak tomorrow, thank you Christian)


I suggest you confide in Christian about your strategy. I'm sure he could arrange a Limo to collect you every day.

At least have the good grace to acknowledge and thank lady variance, because so far she has been kind. Ignore her and she will slap you down so hard.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5032
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
May 1st, 2016 at 2:00:23 AM permalink
I read through this thread... Shook my head.

Decided to read through a couple more threads he started... Shook my head again.

Read all his threads... Now I just think he is coo coo for cocoa puffs. This is not an insult more an observation.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 2:13:09 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I read through this thread... Shook my head.

Decided to read through a couple more threads he started... Shook my head again.

Read all his threads... Now I just think he is coo coo for cocoa puffs. This is not an insult more an observation.


Had to google that. $;o) My favourite definition is here http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=coo+coo+for+cocoa+puffs

I suspect he is playing this for real and is indeed enjoying those winning sessions. I've read nothing that makes those outcomes at all unlikely.
But note how he is getting more confident/cocky and thinking that it was his deviation from his strategy ( not having enough cash) that was his undoing. When it all comes crashing down, he'll be convinced that it was because he varied his perfectly good system in ways that he shouldn't.

Play the same system at the same scale: He will crash and burn.
Scale it up: He will crash and burn
Scale it down: He will crash and burn a little.

His confidence is feeding to addiction. He now refuses to blame his recent stumble on normal variance. That's a sure sign of what his future holds.

"SLAP THUD. What hit me?"
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 216
Joined: Sep 25, 2015
May 1st, 2016 at 2:40:13 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

Read all his threads... Now I just think he is coo coo for cocoa puffs. This is not an insult more an observation.

Calling someone nuts or fat because you think they are isn't an insult? (What else is an insult?)

Just curious: What do you call someone who posts with one other person a bunch about meaningless casino chips?
So much bullshit; so little time!
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
  • Threads: 26
  • Posts: 5032
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
May 1st, 2016 at 2:59:24 AM permalink
OnceDear I totally agree. I usually just read system threads and chuckle to myself. Systems aren't real! Dice setters aren't real! If there is a house edge then you WILL lose, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow but like you said the crash and burn is inevitable.

GrimReaper maybe nuts was the wrong word. Delusional is probably better suited for this case.

Oh I know this one, sounds like a riddle...
I call it a couple of non-delusional people who share a hobby. Maybe meaningless to you, to me and many others who participate in that thread the chips mean varying amounts to each person. At the end of the day if my only addiction is collecting $1 souvenirs then I think I will be just fine.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 3:36:52 AM permalink
Quote: TheGrimReaper13

Calling someone nuts or fat because you think they are isn't an insult? (What else is an insult?)


I hope PG doesn't get suspended for insulting the writer not the writing and I can see how easily one could find himself calling the OP nuts or deluded.

My take on it is that the OPs writing is indicative of some seriously defective thinking. It seems he is playing a low house edge game where coupons and comps may even be cancelling the house edge.

In a low house edge game, the application of a betting strategy (e.g Marty, but any strategy it's the same) can very certainly shape the likelihood of win/loss session outcomes. That's the big problem debunking 'systems' We have to defy the short term evidence. The OP has observed some success doing that 'shaping'. But where he goes wrong is in thinking that he is defying variance and can do so with impunity.

Craps is not my game, but as an analogy to the OP's self belief, consider a roulette player who enters the casino every day and places 35 chips on 35 numbers and goes home when he wins. He could, with great probability, come here each day and say 'whoop whoop! yet another consecutive winning session: That's 'x' days without a fail. looking forward to 'x+1' tomorrow"

Same could happen with a Marty player who walks into the casino with $1250 each day and plays the $5 blackjack with starting bet of $5 and walks out as soon as he has a profit of (say) $30. He would win most sessions. 15 consecutive winning sessions would be a doddle. He may never need to stake more than $160 or so, so he would not consider himself to be putting his $1250 at risk.

The game is almost irrelevant. The system is pretty irrelevant too. The player's strategy shapes the probability towards way more winning sessions than losing sessions. Of course the player has initial success. That's damned near inevitable.

We'd all be screaming, as we do here, "Enjoy it. But you have no winning system" and I'm sure that he'd retort "Tell it to my bankroll: I've been playing with the house's money for weeks"

We can't call the OP nuts. Surely we must try to convince him and his readers that his thought process is nuts defective.

Here's an indicator of the OP's defective thinking from another of his threads:-
Quote: rushdl

The best thing that I can share and want to share with you at this time to be totally honest here, is that my "variance" showed up as it does with all systems. Its early identification, recognition and disengagement simply put, did save a ton of cash. Or about 800 anyway. It happens to me (variance)about every three months (may change) so this is my first one in St Louis. If I am using the word variant/variance incorrectly I apologize. My definition of Variance is something that, when using a system that performs positively, causes negative results. Variant/Variance. I think its also known as the house edge, and probability, which eventually renders all systems broke and useless. So far... not me. But it can and does bite. My deal was to manage the bankroll, and identify the variance and disengage.



So. He identifies the variance and then disengages: Stops playing, presumably till the variance has gone away. Thus he succeeds.

Wake up and smell the coffee rushdl. The variance NEVER GOES AWAY. Sometimes it gives you profit and sometimes it gives you loss.

It's the same fickle beast that both gives and takes. Embrace it. Enjoy it. Don't dismiss it.
Last edited by: OnceDear on May 1, 2016
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 3616
Joined: May 22, 2013
May 1st, 2016 at 5:10:50 AM permalink
You're writing can be brutal!
Not necessarily a bad thing ;-)
What is the origin of the handle 'OnceDear'? Just curious.
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 5:19:51 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

You're writing can be brutal!


Why thanks 2F. I'll take that as a compliment $:o)

Quote: some guy on google

brutal
ˈbruːt(ə)l
adjective
direct and without attempting to disguise unpleasantness.
"the brutal honesty of his observations"
synonyms: unsparing, unstinting, unadorned, unembellished, unvarnished, bald, naked, stark, blunt, direct, straight, straightforward, frank, outspoken, forthright, plain-spoken; heartless, severe; complete, total, unequivocal, unambiguous
"he replied with brutal honesty"




Quote:

What is the origin of the handle 'OnceDear'? Just curious.



You'll like this. Seriously.....
But reply to you by PM
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
rushdl
rushdl
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 177
Joined: Jan 15, 2016
May 1st, 2016 at 7:11:55 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

I read through this thread... Shook my head.
Read all his threads... Now I just think he is coo coo for cocoa puffs. This is not an insult more an observation.


Personal insult-1
And Isnt that stalking?


Quote: OnceDear

I hope PG doesn't get suspended for insulting the writer not the writing and I can see how easily one could find himself calling the OP nuts or deluded.

Personal Insult-2

Who are you talking to OnceDear? Not concerned with your bashing any longer, and we totally don't enjoy it, it provides nothing positive for anything remotely on subject (Blackjack?) so you are officially "Uninvited" to my threads. You contribute nothing and only exist to hurt others. Not just me, but most of your interactions are negative, aggressive and always demeaning. Who needs that?

And, try not posting another long excuse post in here as would be expected of you trying to "Win" the internet. Hey you win already. Take your trophy and goooooo.


For the other readers, this system was developed 1.5 years ago, and I've had a LOT of time on my hands being in the field without my family. Very lonely but I found a way to kill time and get free drinks, on a fire-table. I noticed things nobody else did. I've been playing with Horseshoe money since my first $350 withdraw in 2014. I didn't know it could go this far. I got back home 6 months ago, picked up a few projects and chose Hollywood as current home casino. The dice were much hotter here than where I wrote this so I had soul searching and math models to finish then I developed a deeper understanding and modified the system on the fly with Standard deviation Offsets. It took me a while to figure out how to do that, but its totally stupid easy. That really was the kicker. That's the only ace in the hole, the previously run gammits were right on the odds but I was still ahead, now (with Sd-1 and totally killer Sd-2) the odds are totally out of whack and I feel like Diamond Dave. I can totally play through bad variances now.
I am putting the system in another enthusiast mans hands here in town (for free), for further testing. This will be cool to see if it can work in another mans hand, going by the formula, to test how much voodoo is going on. I would also like to do that in vegas to an interested party willing to record results for me and keep the money for themselves. NDA would be required. 10x tables only.
Last edited by: rushdl on May 1, 2016
TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 216
Joined: Sep 25, 2015
May 1st, 2016 at 7:44:42 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

GrimReaper maybe nuts was the wrong word. Delusional is probably better suited for this case

If I wrote nuts, even questionably as "Are the people here delusional?", I would be banned again (, except for having used the word geniuses last time,) tarred and feathered, and the whole nine yards from here to eternity, without hesitation, or intercession.

I guess if you exist to keep the chip thread going(?), etc(?), then it's okay, even good, and you can get away with murder?
So much bullshit; so little time!
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 7:47:49 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Who are you talking to OnceDear? Not concerned with your bashing any longer, and we totally don't enjoy it, it provides nothing positive for anything remotely on subject (Blackjack?) so you are officially "Uninvited" to my threads. You contribute nothing and only exist to hurt others. Not just me, but most of your interactions are negative, aggressive and always demeaning. Who needs that?

I take that as a compliment too. I ignore your un-invite, but thanks anyway.
Quote:

Who needs that?

All those noobies and misguided fools who might believe that the game can be beaten by betting strategies. You seem to believe it, so maybe you need the negativity too. ( I'll grant you that comps, free drinks, free steaks and free bets could give you an edge. I'll grant too that your strategy is probably adding fun value to your play.)
Quote:

And, try not posting another long excuse post in here

Excuse? What? Why? Sorry. When did you become a moderator here?

Quote:

%<,Snip more drivel >% I can totally play through bad variances now.

I would also like to do that in vegas to an interested party willing to record results for me and keep the money for themselves. NDA would be required. 10x tables only.

Good luck with that. Give away a system. If the recipient wins he keeps the profit. If he loses he keeps the loss. And all you want in return is his record of the results. Very generous sir.
rushdl. Feel free to block me from your view here.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TheGrimReaper13
TheGrimReaper13
  • Threads: 0
  • Posts: 216
Joined: Sep 25, 2015
May 1st, 2016 at 7:51:04 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Who are you talking to OnceDear? Not concerned with your bashing any longer, and we totally don't enjoy it, it provides nothing positive for anything remotely on subject (Blackjack?) so you are officially "Uninvited" to my threads. You contribute nothing and only exist to hurt others. Not just me, but most of your interactions are negative, aggressive and always demeaning. Who needs that?

And, try not posting another long excuse post in here as would be expected of you trying to "Win" the internet. Hey you win already. Take your trophy and goooooo.

Wouldn't you love to see OnceDear and ME go at it? Call it the chipping away at sanity thread.
So much bullshit; so little time!
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 7:58:03 AM permalink
Quote: TheGrimReaper13

Wouldn't you love to see OnceDear and ME go at it? Call it the chipping away at sanity thread.



LOL. seriously LOL.
Even being mentioned in the same post as ME is taken as a compliment.
I have enormous respect for ME's maths prowess and for his single minded brutality in shredding the nonsense spouted by some other posters. Even if I were to find myself at odds with him, I would not presume to go head to head with him.(I do disagree with ME on one teensy matter of opinion but that would just be down to symantics.)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 8:30:15 AM permalink
Quote: rushdl

Insult-2 from OD, did you think you masked that in another mask of how you would think that too but you didn't write it?


Maybe this is insult - 3 then.
What I do or do not think is not subject to moderation. What I do not write is not subject to moderation either.
I do think that PG was careless to effectively describe you as nuts. I don't comment as to whether anyone is nuts. I understand that it might be acceptable to say that some of what is written in this thread fails to demonstrate logical thought processes.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 3616
Joined: May 22, 2013
May 1st, 2016 at 8:46:25 AM permalink
Let's not devolve the thread into a discussion of each other's nuts, agreed ;-?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 8:52:55 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Let's not devolve the thread into a discussion of each other's nuts, agreed ;-?


I'll agree with that, if only to stomp around uninvited in the OP's thread after he tried to 86 me from it.

$;o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 3616
Joined: May 22, 2013
May 1st, 2016 at 9:12:03 AM permalink
Maybe the whole thing was written in code to begin with? Chartin' tables, dice influence, loaded dice, constant elaboration on just how to hold the dice, hours/years of secret practice down in basement, private tables, contest, challenges with witnesses. Not to mention endless debate on the correct measurements, slow-mo video, etc, etc.

I may have wandered onto the wrong forum ;-)
Illegal Cock-Fighting?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
OnceDear
OnceDear
  • Threads: 63
  • Posts: 7477
Joined: Jun 1, 2014
May 1st, 2016 at 9:20:06 AM permalink
Quote: TwoFeathersATL

Maybe the whole thing was written in code to begin with? Chartin' tables, dice influence, loaded dice, constant elaboration on just how to hold the dice, hours/years of secret practice down in basement, private tables, contest, challenges with witnesses. Not to mention endless debate on the correct measurements, slow-mo video, etc, etc.

I may have wandered onto the wrong forum ;-)


Hmmm 2F, Did you just post that to the wrong thread?
There is a thread where there is much argument about the eficacy of charting tables, practicing in a basement, how to hold the dice and challenges with witnesses. MUCH argument there. But this isn't that thread. This thread, as far as I can discern is one about using a secret betting strategy to achieve multiple consecutive winning sessions at craps.
Two completely different threads: One common feature: The OP in each case has had his analysis of reality questioned. The reality has not been questioned in either thread, just the analysis thereof.

Oh. and this is the thread that the OP 86'd me from, so this is the one I'll contribute to most
$:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
  • Threads: 37
  • Posts: 3616
Joined: May 22, 2013
May 1st, 2016 at 9:22:46 AM permalink
I stand corrected, wrong thread ;-(
Mods can move-it if they like, I'm charging forward, not looking back ;-)
It just fit so well with not talkin' 'bout each others nuts.....
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
  • Jump to: