NCcraps
NCcraps
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 1
Joined: Feb 23, 2015
February 23rd, 2015 at 6:25:53 AM permalink
I'm heading to Vegas this weekend. I've been working on a 20 step martingale for a hedge against the seven out. I was going to place bet the 5,6,8,9, @ 10 a piece take winnings and use the following bet progression on the seven out.
Can anybody run this in sim craps? I've read all the bad reviews of the martingale strategy but can't help but wonder.
Would it help to press my bets and use a come strategy if this backfires within 10 rolls?

wager payout net gain with previous losses
-5 -4 20 = 20
-10 -4 40 = 35
-15 -4 60 = 45
-20 -4 80 = 50
-30 -4 120 = 70
-40 -4 160 = 80
-50 -4 200 = 80
-60 -4 240 = 70
-70 -4 280 = 50
-80 -4 320 = 20
-100 -4 400 = 20
-200 -4 800 = 320
-300 -4 1200 = 520
-400 -4 1600 = 620
-500 -4 2000 = 620
-600 -4 2400 = 520
-700 -4 2800 = 320
-1000 -4 4000 = 820
-1200 -4 4800 = 620
-1400 -4 5600 = 220
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
  • Threads: 122
  • Posts: 11006
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
February 23rd, 2015 at 7:10:56 AM permalink
It depends what your goal is. If you want to walk into a casino with a $10,000 bankroll, and your goal is to end up $5, then Martingale is your friend. The great majority of the time you will end up happy, with that Lincoln added to your wallet. The question is how unhappy will you be that one rare time you walk out broke, and you ruminate over the fact you were risking $10,000 to win $5? Placing the $40 on those 4 numbers has you losing around $2 on average. When you double it to $80 you lose double on average.
Using a 'come strategy' is slightly better, because it is a lower house edge bet.

The concept to try and wrap your head around is this.......

If you are playing a game where each bet has a negative expectation (the house has the edge), then adding a bunch more or larger similar bets will just lead to a larger expected loss.
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