drjohnny
drjohnny
Joined: Sep 2, 2012
  • Threads: 31
  • Posts: 167
July 3rd, 2014 at 4:28:54 PM permalink
The Wizard posted a table back in May that stated the casino has a 99% chance of showing a profit from a gambler who has played 41,588 baccarat hands.

So if you had to play 50,000 hands with a $100K bankroll at a table with a $10 minimum and $100K maximum bet, what strategy would you incorporate to maximize your profit? No cheating, edge sorting, or counting allowed.

My strategy:
1. Bet the entire $100K on banker and leave it out there in case of a tie
2. If I win, bet $10 on banker for the remaining 49,999 hands
3. Go home with roughly $89,700 profit

I should have a 50.682483% chance of winning ~$89.7K and a 49.317517% chance of losing $100K with this strategy, right?
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
  • Threads: 119
  • Posts: 3667
July 3rd, 2014 at 4:50:37 PM permalink
You might be only playing 1 hand with that strategy.

If you had to play 50,000 hands, you'd want to play 49,999 hands putting $10 on banker, $10 on player. The 50,000th hand you could put it all on banker.

Of course you could probably play the first 49,999 on banker, but you could lose all of them.

But maybe I'm looking too much into this...
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 16463
July 3rd, 2014 at 5:32:22 PM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

You might be only playing 1 hand with that strategy.

If you had to play 50,000 hands, you'd want to play 49,999 hands putting $10 on banker, $10 on player. The 50,000th hand you could put it all on banker.

Of course you could probably play the first 49,999 on banker, but you could lose all of them.

But maybe I'm looking too much into this...

I'm just glad you understand what he is trying to do. If you have a 100k bankroll(I doubt he does) you're an idiot for going anywhere near Baccarat unless you have a proven mathematical edge, like a loss rebate, I doubt he has anything close.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
kubikulann
kubikulann
Joined: Jun 28, 2011
  • Threads: 25
  • Posts: 798
July 7th, 2014 at 5:12:06 AM permalink
Quote: drjohnny

The Wizard posted a table back in May that stated the casino has a 99% chance of showing a profit from a gambler who has played 41,588 baccarat hands.
So if you had to play 50,000 hands with a $100K bankroll at a table with a $10 minimum and $100K maximum bet, what strategy would you incorporate to maximize your profit? No cheating, edge sorting, or counting allowed.?

I'm afraid you didn't grasp what is meant by the Wizard's table.
Firstly, it is supposed to be a constant wager. Your strategy deviates from that basis.
Secondly, what it says is that, although you have a ~50% chance of winning in a single hand, you have only 1% of being positive after those 40,000+ hands. What it does not say is that this positive amount is quite small, while the negative amounts may be quite big.

Anyway, with your figures, the expected LOSS is hard to swallow, isn't it? Is that what you call "maximising profit"?
Reperiet qui quaesiverit

  • Jump to: