Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 10:07:19 AM permalink
As some of you may know, certain sites now allow gambling on WWE PPV matches. So considering that it's fixed, isn't it just best to just bet on the rediculous long shot odds and hope the writing team changes it's finish? I know at one point Undertaker was -5000 to beat Brock Lesnar at WM30 and we saw how that went.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
May 7th, 2014 at 10:19:08 AM permalink
Any time you're "wagering" on unknown but non-random events, there's a potential opportunity for a +EV play. In your case, if the price you're getting for the long shots more than covers your estimation of the chances that the writing team changes the ending, then yes, you have a good play. The question you need to ask is whether the sports books are setting the line based just on the money or based on having a phone call with the writing team.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
geoff
geoff
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 368
Joined: Feb 19, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 10:21:43 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Any time you're "wagering" on unknown but non-random events, there's a potential opportunity for a +EV play. In your case, if the price you're getting for the long shots more than covers your estimation of the chances that the writing team changes the ending, then yes, you have a good play. The question you need to ask is whether the sports books are setting the line based just on the money or based on having a phone call with the writing team.



It would be based only on the money. If anyone on staff had any foreknowledge of what was going to happen then it is considered rigging a public contest. They'd just set it up with equal money on both sides like they always do for sports.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 10:22:15 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Any time you're "wagering" on unknown but non-random events, there's a potential opportunity for a +EV play. In your case, if the price you're getting for the long shots more than covers your estimation of the chances that the writing team changes the ending, then yes, you have a good play. The question you need to ask is whether the sports books are setting the line based just on the money or based on having a phone call with the writing team.



From what I have been told, the line swings wildly. The Undertaker line went from -5000 to -1200 at one point. The theory is the writing team makes the change and then bets on it. Massive bets to make things swing that much.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 10:23:26 AM permalink
Quote: geoff

It would be based only on the money. If anyone on staff had any foreknowledge of what was going to happen then it is considered rigging a public contest. They'd just set it up with equal money on both sides like they always do for sports.



Yeah but they can tell friends to bet. Give them the money to do it.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
  • Threads: 88
  • Posts: 6526
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
May 7th, 2014 at 10:27:15 AM permalink
You want to throw your money into a gaffed contest where you're in the dark and others aren't?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 10:29:58 AM permalink
If the price is right, absolutely. It's not like they are specifically changing things based on my bet. I just have to be on the right side of what they decide.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
FinsRule
FinsRule
  • Threads: 129
  • Posts: 3917
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
May 7th, 2014 at 10:33:11 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

You want to throw your money into a gaffed contest where you're in the dark and others aren't?



Oh, Jai Alai?
iamthepush
iamthepush
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: May 26, 2010
May 7th, 2014 at 10:40:26 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

I know at one point Undertaker was -5000 to beat Brock Lesnar at WM30 and we saw how that went.





just b/c undertaker was -5000 doesn't mean lesnar was +5000
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 11:03:33 AM permalink
Quote: iamthepush

just b/c undertaker was -5000 doesn't mean lesnar was +5000



Well obviously but it's still something comparable and worth betting.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
iamthepush
iamthepush
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 85
Joined: May 26, 2010
May 7th, 2014 at 11:12:14 AM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

Well obviously but it's still something comparable and worth betting.



not necessarily, could have been +1400

If i had to guess I bet there was a max bet of $500 or less
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 11:13:58 AM permalink
Quote: iamthepush

not necessarily, could have been +1400

If i had to guess I bet there was a max bet of $500 or less



Ill do the research. Hopefully I can get a line history.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 7th, 2014 at 11:22:30 AM permalink
http://www.totalprosports.com/2014/04/08/betting-undertaker-brock-lesnar-wrestlemania-30/

At it's peak, Brock was +4000 with a hundred dollar max bet. That's pretty damn good.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
JimRockford
JimRockford
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 652
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
May 8th, 2014 at 3:22:28 PM permalink
Vegas actually takes action on WWE? That's amazing. How much would I have to lay to bet on the Globe Trotters to beat the Generals?
"Truth is ever to be found in the simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things." -- Isaac Newton
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 3:25:52 PM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

Vegas actually takes action on WWE? That's amazing. How much would I have to lay to bet on the Globe Trotters to beat the Generals?



Vegas doesn't, but certain online sites do. Bovada has in the past and still may.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
May 8th, 2014 at 3:31:06 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

As some of you may know, certain sites now allow gambling on WWE PPV matches. So considering that it's fixed, isn't it just best to just bet on the rediculous long shot odds and hope the writing team changes it's finish? I know at one point Undertaker was -5000 to beat Brock Lesnar at WM30 and we saw how that went.



I believe it is fixed too, and a friend of mine claims to bet it with inside information on who is predestined to win. However, I would fear a Pulp Fiction kind of situation where a fighter, who is supposed to take a dive, bets big on himself, through confederates of course, and then wins easily.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 319
Joined: Feb 18, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 3:31:45 PM permalink
Quote: JimRockford

Vegas actually takes action on WWE? That's amazing. How much would I have to lay to bet on the Globe Trotters to beat the Generals?



My thoughts exactly. Will they take bets on the next character to be killed in Game of Thrones, too?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
  • Threads: 68
  • Posts: 11933
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
May 8th, 2014 at 3:35:22 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 3:36:54 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I believe it is fixed too, and a friend of mine claims to bet it with inside information on who is predestined to win. However, I would fear a Pulp Fiction kind of situation where a fighter, who is supposed to take a dive, bets big on himself, through confederates of course, and then wins easily.



Unless it's Triple H or Undertaker, wrestlers for the most part have no veto power on wins and losses.

Have I literally found the only profitable betting system?
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 6407
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
May 8th, 2014 at 4:35:56 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

Have I literally found the only profitable betting system?


If you have some idea what is going on, you stand a good chance of making a profit, but that Undertaker-Lesnar match shows that nothing is guaranteed (and even if UT had been scripted to win, that could have changed if he would have gotten seriously injured during the match). For example, Daniel Bryan beating Kane at Extreme Rules was pretty much certain.

Then again, with title matches, there's the added problem that they can change the result without having to change who's going to win the title. (For example, they could have written it so that somebody beats Kane up during the match, getting Bryan disqualified, but, of course, in professional wrestling, a title usually doesn't change hands except by pinfall or submission.)
geoff
geoff
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 368
Joined: Feb 19, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 4:37:30 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

Unless it's Triple H or Undertaker, wrestlers for the most part have no veto power on wins and losses.

Have I literally found the only profitable betting system?



Card counting is a pretty profitable betting system. Or so I hear.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 5:27:23 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

If you have some idea what is going on, you stand a good chance of making a profit, but that Undertaker-Lesnar match shows that nothing is guaranteed (and even if UT had been scripted to win, that could have changed if he would have gotten seriously injured during the match). For example, Daniel Bryan beating Kane at Extreme Rules was pretty much certain.

Then again, with title matches, there's the added problem that they can change the result without having to change who's going to win the title. (For example, they could have written it so that somebody beats Kane up during the match, getting Bryan disqualified, but, of course, in professional wrestling, a title usually doesn't change hands except by pinfall or submission.)



I was actually about to talk about the alternate possibilities but I reneged because I wasn't sure anyone would know what I was talking about lol. I can see how you can get screwed by other possibilities, however you know certain matches won't have screwy finishes(pretty much WM main events and who will win Royal Rumble). The only way to get killed is if they start breaking it up into how a guy wins instead of just winning.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 5:28:23 PM permalink
Quote: geoff

Card counting is a pretty profitable betting system. Or so I hear.



I don't think that's an actual betting system. More of a method.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
May 8th, 2014 at 5:44:06 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Then again, with title matches, there's the added problem that they can change the result without having to change who's going to win the title. (For example, they could have written it so that somebody beats Kane up during the match, getting Bryan disqualified, but, of course, in professional wrestling, a title usually doesn't change hands except by pinfall or submission.)



Isn't there often some kind of dispute on really big matches? Like there was an impersonator referee. Is there some standard by which you can trust who won?
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
djatc
djatc
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 4477
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
May 8th, 2014 at 5:46:57 PM permalink
Sounds like a great way to blow a buck or two on the long shot on every wrestlemania.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 5:54:06 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Isn't there often some kind of dispute on really big matches? Like there was an impersonator referee. Is there some standard by which you can trust who won?



Wiz is showing his age with the 1980s Earl/Dave Hebner referee switch lol.

Sometimes outside interference helps a guy win, but it's still counted as a win. It's very rare that the final match on a PPV has a non-finish. To be honest though, now that these PPVs are on the $10 a month WWE Network I can see more non-finishes happening.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 6407
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
May 8th, 2014 at 6:06:18 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

I was actually about to talk about the alternate possibilities but I reneged because I wasn't sure anyone would know what I was talking about lol. I can see how you can get screwed by other possibilities, however you know certain matches won't have screwy finishes(pretty much WM main events and who will win Royal Rumble).


Who saw Vince McMahon winning the Royal Rumble in 1999? The vast majority of people probably felt that Vince had all but telegraphed a Steve Austin win when he told him he would never get another WWE title shot (which, of course, meant that Austin would get the title shot the Rumble winner gets). The mysterious WWE "rule" about what happened when Vince gave the spot to Mankind didn't exist before then.

Quote: Lemieux66

Sometimes outside interference helps a guy win, but it's still counted as a win. It's very rare that the final match on a PPV has a non-finish.


Then again, there's something like the main event at WrestleMania IX; I doubt many people figured Yokozuna would win, since Vince knows that sending the fans home happy is much better for business, and I seriously doubt anybody thought the show would end with Hulk Hogan as the champion.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 6:17:10 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Who saw Vince McMahon winning the Royal Rumble in 1999? The vast majority of people probably felt that Vince had all but telegraphed a Steve Austin win when he told him he would never get another WWE title shot (which, of course, meant that Austin would get the title shot the Rumble winner gets). The mysterious WWE "rule" about what happened when Vince gave the spot to Mankind didn't exist before then.


Then again, there's something like the main event at WrestleMania IX; I doubt many people figured Yokozuna would win, since Vince knows that sending the fans home happy is much better for business, and I seriously doubt anybody thought the show would end with Hulk Hogan as the champion.



This is true, however if none of these things are listed as a wager would you get your money back? I seriously don't know.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
  • Threads: 118
  • Posts: 6407
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
May 8th, 2014 at 7:03:14 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

This is true, however if none of these things are listed as a wager would you get your money back? I seriously don't know.


The bets would have been "Who will win the 1999 Royal Rumble?" (if you bet Steve Austin, you lost - the result was not overturned; it was the title shot that normally goes with it that changed hands), and "Who will win the Bret Hart vs. Yokozuna title match at WrestleMania IX?" (and if you bet on Hart, you lost - the fact that Yokozuna then lost a separate, unannounced title match against Hulk Hogan is irrelevant). No refunds would have been warranted.

The only time the books might have had a problem was when the Royal Rumble had two winners. The books would have had a choice; either pay off everybody who bet on either one, or claim, "You bet that only one person would win, and two did, so you lose your bet." (IIRC, something like this happened in the fourth Harry Potter book.)
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
  • Threads: 1496
  • Posts: 26619
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
May 8th, 2014 at 7:49:42 PM permalink
Quote: Lemieux66

Wiz is showing his age with the 1980s Earl/Dave Hebner referee switch lol.



Ouch!

Good example of a personal insult that is allowed.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 8:19:22 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

The bets would have been "Who will win the 1999 Royal Rumble?" (if you bet Steve Austin, you lost - the result was not overturned; it was the title shot that normally goes with it that changed hands), and "Who will win the Bret Hart vs. Yokozuna title match at WrestleMania IX?" (and if you bet on Hart, you lost - the fact that Yokozuna then lost a separate, unannounced title match against Hulk Hogan is irrelevant). No refunds would have been warranted.

The only time the books might have had a problem was when the Royal Rumble had two winners. The books would have had a choice; either pay off everybody who bet on either one, or claim, "You bet that only one person would win, and two did, so you lose your bet." (IIRC, something like this happened in the fourth Harry Potter book.)



That's troubling. Maybe the betting system is a failure IF Vince Russo is employed lol.
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22294
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
May 8th, 2014 at 9:07:33 PM permalink
Quote: TerribleTom

My thoughts exactly. Will they take bets on the next character to be killed in Game of Thrones, too?

Actually there have been bets like this. I have heard of some Harry potter bets. will we prove aliens exist by x date. You have to look around online and you can find all kinds of interesting bets. Even being able to bet on BIG BROTHER. One problem is the betting limits usually $500 max. I have heard of some bigger limits in the thousands. You could probably make some good money betting crazy things like this with enough research and detective work.

EASTENDERS OUTRIGHTS
Who Killed Lucy Beale
Les Coker
7/4
View all odds
Abi Branning
7
View all odds
Danny Pennant
8
View all odds
Jake Stone
8
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
May 8th, 2014 at 9:18:32 PM permalink
1949 watched my heroes on the DUMONT network.

Antonino "Argentina" Rocca, Gorgeous George, the Mighty Atlas, the Swedish Angel, the Zebra Kid, characters like "Hatpin Mary," who took delight in jabbing wrestlers she deemed deserving with her lethal-looking hatpin.

I wonder what one of Gorgeous George's gold plated bobby pins would go for on Ebay now. LOL
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
michael99000
michael99000
  • Threads: 9
  • Posts: 2113
Joined: Jul 10, 2010
May 8th, 2014 at 9:33:43 PM permalink
Several books recently offered wagering on "will arod ever play another game in MLB?" with no calendar date limits specified . I still don't understand how these type of bets can ever be graded until he actually passes away.
Buzzard
Buzzard
  • Threads: 90
  • Posts: 6814
Joined: Oct 28, 2012
May 8th, 2014 at 9:44:28 PM permalink
The bookie will hold your money until then, interest free. What a nice man.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
  • Threads: 24
  • Posts: 1226
Joined: Feb 16, 2014
May 8th, 2014 at 10:00:40 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

Actually there have been bets like this. I have heard of some Harry potter bets. will we prove aliens exist by x date. You have to look around online and you can find all kinds of interesting bets. Even being able to bet on BIG BROTHER. One problem is the betting limits usually $500 max. I have heard of some bigger limits in the thousands. You could probably make some good money betting crazy things like this with enough research and detective work.

EASTENDERS OUTRIGHTS
Who Killed Lucy Beale
Les Coker
7/4
View all odds
Abi Branning
7
View all odds
Danny Pennant
8
View all odds
Jake Stone
8



I've tried to get on Big Brother and will try again. Remember to bet on Lemieux66!
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
  • Jump to: