OneManWolfPack
OneManWolfPack
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April 22nd, 2014 at 4:34:43 PM permalink
As it is so simple, I am sure I am not the first to think up this strategy. I am hoping someone more analytical than I can give me some math on it and tell me if it is a worthy strategy for live play.

I came up with it playing no commission pai gow (truly no commission, no odd qualifiers to keep it free, just that my casino makes their money on fortune bets and progressive tries).

Here it is.

Bet 1 unit. If you win
Bet 2 units. If you win
Bank 1 unit, bet 3 units. If you win
Bank 6 units. Series over, start again with 1 unit.

If you lose any you start the series over. If you push, repeat the last bet.

Had bad hands all day. Made it to the 3 unit bet several times but always got a pai gow in my hand and probably only converted 1 try.

Was -18 units after 7 hours of play, but I put that on poor luck. We played pai gow hoping to hit a hot seat promotion where they draw you to pick cash envelopes. My friend got picked for the 2nd week in a row but took that long to get picked.

She was down nearly 200$ flat betting 3 units and playing the 1$ progressive. I told her not to play the progressive, instead play the 123 method and if she made it to the third level, she could bet the bonus on those bets only to prevent her from being taxed on the majority of her hands.

I like that you stay even after 2 wins and go for a huge score on the 3rd. Am I missing something. Could I modify it to lock up more wins?

I like it for pai gow but I think it really has potential in craps taking advantage of hot shooters and locking up wins against the eventual 7 out.

Thanks for reading, hope to see a few replies if you have something to share.
Lemieux66
Lemieux66
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April 22nd, 2014 at 4:36:22 PM permalink
Here we go lol
10 eyes for an eye. 10 teeth for a tooth. 10 bucks for a buck?! Hit the bad guys where it hurts the most: the face and the wallet.
Deucekies
Deucekies
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April 22nd, 2014 at 4:48:20 PM permalink
I've seen someone do a similar betting pattern. After the 3-bet win, they banked two and played a freeroll 5-bet before going back to 1.

This betting "system" is no worse than the other betting patterns floating around out there, but it's no better either.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
TerribleTom
TerribleTom
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April 22nd, 2014 at 4:49:23 PM permalink
If you have fun betting this way, go for it.

Just do so with the full knowledge that it does not give you any kind of edge or advantage in any way.

One winning session is one winning session, no more, no less.
Pabo
Pabo
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April 22nd, 2014 at 5:04:43 PM permalink
It seems that Gamblor/Dracula has returned. Either that, or OP is a disciple.
djatc
djatc
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April 22nd, 2014 at 6:13:50 PM permalink
I want my money back for hangover 2 Alan. Also I didn't see 3 yet because I am sure it sucks.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
djatc
djatc
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April 22nd, 2014 at 6:20:24 PM permalink
Edit1234
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
terapined
terapined
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April 22nd, 2014 at 6:20:25 PM permalink
Radiation warning
Clear the area, nuclear fallout imminent.
Its just a forum. Nothing here to get obsessed about.
OneManWolfPack
OneManWolfPack
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April 22nd, 2014 at 9:08:25 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I want my money back for hangover 2 Alan. Also I didn't see 3 yet because I am sure it sucks.


2 was very bad. I liked 3. I dislike galafanakis now that he did the Obama fern shoot.
Sonuvabish
Sonuvabish
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April 23rd, 2014 at 2:37:11 PM permalink
Quote: OneManWolfPack

2 was very bad. I liked 3. I dislike galafanakis now that he did the Obama fern shoot.



3 was terrible. Nobody is hungover. And Ciao is the main character. 2 was a letdown, but so is almost every sequel. The third movie in a trilogy is usually better than the letdown of a sequel. It was not worse than Matrix Revolutions.
tilt247
tilt247
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April 24th, 2014 at 2:19:04 PM permalink
I disagree. For instance take Next Friday. Frigan hilarious!! and Friday after next.. eh, it was ok. Oh wait, aren't we supposed to be talking about some silly system some person made up for Pai Gow? Shoot, I have to go back and read it again....
Wait, it's a long term advantage?
OneManWolfPack
OneManWolfPack
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April 26th, 2014 at 2:06:10 PM permalink
I modified the system with today's play.
Bet 1, if win
Bet 2, if win
Bet 1, this is a blank hand (to prevent what would be a streak breaking loss), win lose or push,
Bet 3, if win
Bank 6 units, series over start again with 1 unit.

If lose on the 2 or 3 bet, start series over. Blank bet result is irrelevant. Move to 3 regardless of result.

Worked out very well today. Converted 4 of 6 tries. Left with 42$ profit after 3 hours play. I think his is a solid comp grind system.
djatc
djatc
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April 26th, 2014 at 2:48:48 PM permalink
So at what point did you have an advantage? Let's see some numbers.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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April 27th, 2014 at 10:06:17 AM permalink
Quote: OneManWolfPack

I modified the system with today's play.
Bet 1, if win
Bet 2, if win
Bet 1, this is a blank hand (to prevent what would be a streak breaking loss), win lose or push,
Bet 3, if win
Bank 6 units, series over start again with 1 unit.

I think his is a solid comp grind system.


If you're mainly trying to grind for comps, a quick Monte Carlo shows that your average bet is around 1.500 (assuming a 50/50 win-loss).

Your original system average bet is around 1.571.
GWAE
GWAE
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April 27th, 2014 at 12:49:47 PM permalink
Quote: OneManWolfPack

I modified the system with today's play.
Bet 1, if win
Bet 2, if win
Bet 1, this is a blank hand (to prevent what would be a streak breaking loss), win lose or push,
Bet 3, if win
Bank 6 units, series over start again with 1 unit.

If lose on the 2 or 3 bet, start series over. Blank bet result is irrelevant. Move to 3 regardless of result.

Worked out very well today. Converted 4 of 6 tries. Left with 42$ profit after 3 hours play. I think his is a solid comp grind system.



People around these parts hate any kind of betting systems. I sometimes do a betting scheme but not because I think that I am getting an edge but because I like to get a little more action out there. If you think you are getting an edge then you are sadly mistaken. The problem with your way is that you need to lose 3 in order to lock in any kind of profit. I like to do a 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 5
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
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