ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 3rd, 2014 at 5:46:46 AM permalink
If i play at an online casino with a bonus (b) of say 29 x deposit (d), then the gain will be a net profit (NP) of 4.7 x d, on average for the player

also the maximum withdrawal is 1 x the bonus, and the bonus can be redrawn unlimited number of times until you win, (with a normal lag time of 5-8 business days, to receive the funds into neteller or skrill account, and 10-14 business days for wire transfer)

lets say that d = $25 and b = $725

if i wager the full 750 bonus on an event with a 19% 'real chance', and the odds offered are $5.00 for that outcome, then the long-term profit is $117.50 for every $25 deposit, see proof below:

proof NP = 4.7 x d

4.7 x d = NP (% x (b + d)) - d,
NP = (19% x $750) - 25,
NP = 142.5 - 25, = 117.50

therefore NP = $117.50 (per deposit), and is proof that 4.7 x d = NP

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i am making deposits of about 1.25% of betting capital, but please feel free to comment if you think that is too big or small etc

lastly i would like to get a ballpark standard deviation or variance for the above outcome (19% chance), if the chance of the online game is 'fair'


ps assume that once you have increased the bonus funds to 5 x the original bonus, it is then 'safe' to grind out the turnover requirements for the remainder of your play
CrystalMath
CrystalMath
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March 3rd, 2014 at 6:21:06 AM permalink
What is the bonus game and how much do you intend to wager on the bonus? I see that you're planning on wagering a total of $750, but it sounds like you are going to wager $5 at a time.
I heart Crystal Math.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 3rd, 2014 at 6:48:09 AM permalink
The $117.50 is not that much for a week or so's work, but $250 is the maximum deposit per account, the bonus is $7500 and the maximum bet is $1000,

nb: assume that the game has a return to player' of 95%

option 1, have upto 7 x $1000 bets^^^ on odds***of $31 for the first bet, $32 for bet two, $33 for bet three etc, and for bet eight change the bet to $500 @ $75, since that is all that is left of the bonus

option 2 have upto 10 x $750 bets^^^ on odds*** of $41 for the first bet, $42 for bet two..., and $50 for bet ten

bets^^^: if you have reached your goal of 5 x initial bonus before the last bet, then switch to 'safe' play by grinding the turnover down on relatively safe bets

odds***: since every bet reduces the turnover requirements by a small amount, the minimum odds will be slightly less than what was stated, for every bet after the first bet

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now lets assume that the combined winning chance of all the bets in option 1 or 2 is still about 19%, then the average gain is $1175 per deposit.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 3rd, 2014 at 6:57:14 AM permalink
-reply deleted / moved
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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March 3rd, 2014 at 7:06:43 AM permalink
yeah sorry about the wording, my grammar is not too good

any way the bonus is $750, and you can bet on an outcome that is roughly a 19% chance of happening, at odds of $5.00, so you will bet the full bonus once on a single outcome that pays $5.00, assuming that the game has an average return to player of 95% (19% chance x $5.00 odds)

also the game is Virtual Racebook 3d
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