gpac1377
gpac1377
Joined: Apr 7, 2013
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February 17th, 2014 at 7:38:11 AM permalink
Possibly the most fascinating, yet mysterious participant here is "soxfan."

Soxfan's contributions are short bursts of one or two sentences, mixed with fondly remembered slang, punctuated by a distinctive catchphrase.

He's one of the most accomplished gamblers here, but details are sparse, so I thought it might be helpful to speculate.

Soxfan is a pro baccarat player at one Canadian casino, which is not allowed to bar him. His methods are simple, summarized as "It ain't rocket science." He routinely dismisses advantage players as "wiseguys" and "mathites," so we can assume his system does not involve a mathematical edge. His comments also suggest he has no "long run" edge, but he explains that the long run is irrelevant because it's impossible to achieve in anyone's lifetime.

He sits out about two-thirds of all hands dealt at his table. He appears to believe that casino shuffles are non-random, although there's no mention of any exploitability.

If his focus is the "short run," then presumably he would employ money-management strategies such as "quitting while ahead," but I don't see any detail on that. Maybe it's too sensitive to disclose on a public board.

Soxfan respects the possibilities of ESP, so psychic powers may be a factor.

What do you think? What is the secret to soxfan's success?

For reference, below is a selection of relevant quotes, in chronological order. After the first, I edited out the remaining hey heys. Sorry for that.

Quote: soxfan

I have been making a fulltime income playing bac for the past several years. My gross profit per sho is lightly under ten units and over time I have won slightly fewer that 49% of my placed bets. It ain't rocket science, baby, hey hey!

I'm well, and still grinding a fulltime income at the bac table. Lots of AP wiseguys on this forum, I must say. I bet some of these cats won't even got to the latrine less they figure they have some kinda "edge."

Firstly, I only play at one casino in the province of ONtario, and here casinos can't ban a cat simply for winning.

Please, a SIMPLE answer will suffice; EXACTLY how many bacarrat decisions do I have to buck up against before hitting the "long run."

I've personally played over 10 000 baccarat shoes in my life and have only seen one shoe with no tie outcomes.

It's good to see the gr88888888888888one goin to war with the ap wiseguys on here, I must say. I'm kinda surprised that the john-O hasn't chimed in, as he is also well ahead at baccarat without any definable "edge", but oh well.

I play bac, fulltime, five days per week, 48 weeks per year, and the income I derive from bac is my only form of active income. But, in a year's worth of fulltime play I only buck up against about 36000 decisions. A mathite once told me the "long run" is about ten million decisons, so I just need to play bac fulltime for about 300 more years before the "long run" catches up to me.

Actually, I play six shoes per session, so 30 shoes per week. I only make real money bets on about 35% of hand dealt. So, I only buck up against a paltry 36000 decisoions and average just under ten untis gross profits, per shoe, and that works for me.

My average profit per shoe is just under ten units, gross profits. And over the years I have put much of my bac winnings into income producing real estate and other vehicles that generate a passive income stream.

I previously posed a question on here but didn'y get answer. So, I ask again, how many hands/shoes of baccarat do I have to buck up against before I hit the "long-run", that will cause me to lose all the profit I've made over the past few years, as well as my intitial starting bankroll? You cats prattle on endlessly about it, so you should be able to define the "long-run" in precise terms, right.

And, of course you have the usual gaggle of genius, know it all, WOV ap wiseguys interjecting as always.

I often buck up against machine shuffled, eight deck shoes and that particular sequence is not at all out of the ordinary. But, I guess if a cat don't actually play the game, much, he might think that sequence unusual.

Well, Odin knows I'm doin something right if I manage to annoy some of the ap wiseguys around here.

So, whay don't bj card counters just Kelly their way to millions in risk and stress free profits.

I'm in a casino to make my nut, period!

Some of you cats on here slay me, for serious.

Yer friend's skill set could make card counting-tacking at the baccarat a VERY VIABLE enterprise. If he is as good as you say, I would be willing to back him.
I was thinking about some of the exotic side-bets on offer, like the super egalite.

If the "long run" consists of miliions, or tens of millions of hands then why worry about it.

Some good bj counters experience prolonged losing periods. Some even bustout a bankroll then have to go into hock to family, friend, credit card, loanshark to raise a new roll and get back in the gmae, hopefully on the positive side of the variance than knocked em outta the box in the first place, despite their edge. Some of these mathites are just plain delusional.

Ap wiseguys and mathites enjoy trying to make others feel stupid, that's their style.

Yup, the axel wolfe is a serious cat with serious trunk space.

A math girly, with a PHD from the University of Toronto told me that the "long run" at games of chance like the baccarat, that resolve to a close to 50-50 state, is ten million decisions. If she is correct then I will never live long enough to see that "long run". But, hey it is nice to see the gr8888888888888one goin to war with the resident ap wiseguys.

Years back I allowed a cat from the old gambling glen to eyeball my baccarats play and it turned out to be a BIG mistake, as the cat turned coconut on me.

Some of these mathites/ap wiseguys are humorless, anal, cynical, and socially inadequate. Little wonder that some of em rarely get out from behind their computer keyboards and sims.

Actually, abilities such as telekinesis, and esp are innate in a certain percentage of the population. Those abilities can be developed given the right amount of time and effort.

"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
odiousgambit
odiousgambit
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February 17th, 2014 at 8:05:00 AM permalink
If someone with such claims keeps a low enough profile, I see no reason to bug them about those claims. Soxfan seems to do that, or have I missed something?

For my guess, I would say "bet selection" / "trend spotting" would be what he is about.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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February 17th, 2014 at 8:05:52 AM permalink
Some kind of martingalesque system on the tie bet.
gpac1377
gpac1377
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February 17th, 2014 at 8:19:04 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If someone with such claims keeps a low enough profile, I see no reason to bug them about those claims. Soxfan seems to do that, or have I missed something?


No, I posted everything.

It seemed rather extraordinary to me. How many people on this site are long-time, full-time, pro baccarat players? I haven't noticed any others. Even varmenti acknowledged that he had only been in action for a few months.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
RolexWatch
RolexWatch
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February 17th, 2014 at 9:51:30 AM permalink
Supposedly the progression used is "Sure win" also known as the "Z method" a parlay after a win system.

Z method Bet#1 Bet#2 Bet#3 Bet#4 Bet#5 Bet#6 Bet#7 Bet#8 Bet#9 Bet#10 Bet#11 Bet#12 Bet#13
Units bet 1____1____2___2____3____4___ 5___ 7___9____12__16___22___29
Loss -1___-2____4___-6___-9___-13__-18__-25__-34__-46__-62__-84__-113
1st Win 1___ 0___ 0___ -2___-3___-5__ -8___-11__-16__-22__-30__-40__-55
Parlay after win 2___ 4___ 2___ 3____3___ 2____ 3___2___2____2____4_____3

People fall into this trap of thinking longevity is a substitute for credibility, without the latter, I seriously doubt there is any substance or credibility in any of it.

Sorry for the formatting, guess you can figure things out
GWAE
GWAE
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February 17th, 2014 at 10:12:20 AM permalink
After reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti. Maybe varmenti is soxfan who did post some of his ideas and got killed for it of course. So now we bash varmenti and soxfan can still be anonymous. Or maybe they play at the same casino and know each other?

so if he is not varmenti then I am going to guess that he is using multiple types of betting schemes and only makes a wager when the next hand has all of them overlapping. That last sentence makes sense in my head but I don't know how to put it in words.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
gpac1377
gpac1377
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February 17th, 2014 at 10:37:42 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

After reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti.


I'm pretty obtuse, but I don't detect much similarity in writing style. Varmenti seems to have dropped out completely -- no more Facebook updates or YouTube videos.

The mention of tie bets reminds me of novicegambler, who I think was the Indian visitor with an incredibly rich father. He had a variety of writing styles. He's not banned, but I vaguely recall some drama from him around the time of the varmenti meltdown. It's hard to keep up.

If you seek to discover the simple, but hidden secrets of baccarat, Ontario is the place, that's apparent.
"Scientists tell us that the fastest animal on earth, with a top speed of 120 feet per second, is a cow that has been dropped out of a helicopter."
beachbumbabs
Administrator
beachbumbabs
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February 17th, 2014 at 10:39:44 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

After reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti. Maybe varmenti is soxfan who did post some of his ideas and got killed for it of course. So now we bash varmenti and soxfan can still be anonymous. Or maybe they play at the same casino and know each other?

so if he is not varmenti then I am going to guess that he is using multiple types of betting schemes and only makes a wager when the next hand has all of them overlapping. That last sentence makes sense in my head but I don't know how to put it in words.



I get what you're saying; it's kind of like biometrics, with sine waves all peaking at certain points. When the waves converge, that's when he bets. Not that I know anything about his system, just the point you're making.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rob45
rob45
Joined: Jul 24, 2013
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February 17th, 2014 at 10:42:55 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

After reading those quotes and thinking about it, it just seems like there is a similarity between soxfan and varmenti. Maybe varmenti is soxfan who did post some of his ideas and got killed for it of course. So now we bash varmenti and soxfan can still be anonymous.

Highly unlikely. Not impossible, but.....


Quote: GWAE

Or maybe they play at the same casino and know each other?

That is a possibility, but I choose not to speculate.
EvenBob
EvenBob
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February 17th, 2014 at 12:25:33 PM permalink
Because he's obsessed with the long run, he thinks
that's some kind of brick wall/voodoo place that
will rob him of winning. He obviously doesn't know
where his edge is coming from, which means he
probably doesn't have one. This means he's using
luck and a progression, nothing new there. If he
really had a legit edge, talking about it on a public
forum that thousands in the industry read would
be the last thing he'd do. If he sits out most of the
hands, he's waiting for a trigger that has worked
more times than not for his progression. You can
remain lucky playing this way for quite awhile but
it has a brick wall built into it, as I'm sure he knows.
That's why he's bragging about it now, before it's
too late.
"It's not enough to succeed, your friends must fail." Gore Vidal

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