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treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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December 12th, 2013 at 3:38:53 PM permalink
I was once told that if you want to win betting sports you travel to or have access to the host teams local bookies. The idea is to bet against the local team as most action will fall on the local team for a many of reasons......the "homers" jump on the home teams and will bet on their team with local books no matter what the line is.....

UK Wildcat basketball is a great example. The fans are insane. Lets say UK is playing Tennessee in college hoops. The Vegas line might be UK -10 but in Lexington you may have to lay 12, 13 points with the local books. So the player is getting value...... 2 or 3 points by taking the visitor.

I'm know the previous example is repeated throughout the country every week. The dude that relayed the idea had some real credibility. The 1-2-3 or more point difference is value. Yes? The wide spread differential can also offer opportunities for middling games.

Shoot it down.
Each day is better than the next
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 12th, 2013 at 4:06:45 PM permalink
Basic flaw is access to the local bookies and getting your action down. To be real profitable requires quite a network. If you have such contacts, you are probable better off if you get get a nickle line from them when their books are lopsided. Henry G. made a nice living doing this.

Other problem might be collecting. Not talking about getting paid as much as having to collect or pay when your own book with a bookie hits a set number. And no book likes to leave an audit trail. I once had to pick up 10K from The Lord, before Henry could place another bet. That's right ! Julius owed Henry 10K , so Henry could not make another bet. If you can not see the logic in that, you know nothing about bookies.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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December 12th, 2013 at 4:23:12 PM permalink
Establishing a large network of reliable books would be problematic but not impossible. A road trip to all the tracks in the country would be a good start on establishing connections. Most books that I've dealt with want to be paid on Tuesday and then payout on Wednesday. No credit, no doubling down, no chasing loses.
Each day is better than the next
Buzzard
Buzzard
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December 12th, 2013 at 4:27:20 PM permalink
I am so old that when I collected, it was on Mondays. And Monday Night Football was started in 1970. After the first couple of weeks, movie theaters were packed with ladies. Only 1 tv set per household back then.
Shed not for her the bitter tear Nor give the heart to vain regret Tis but the casket that lies here, The gem that filled it Sparkles yet
KeyserSoze
KeyserSoze
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December 12th, 2013 at 4:34:28 PM permalink
It wouldn't take long for the local book to figure out you are betting the soft number (against the local team). Eventually when you call and ask for the point spread, he will give you the market number.
Talent hits a target no one else can hit; genius hits a target no one else can see.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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December 12th, 2013 at 4:37:50 PM permalink
Quote: KeyserSoze

It wouldn't take long for the local book to figure out you are betting the soft number (against the local team). Eventually when you call and ask for the point spread, he will give you the market number.



You are absolutely right. Never considered that......system busted.
Each day is better than the next
wroberson
wroberson
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December 12th, 2013 at 5:21:22 PM permalink
Yours is better and more creative than the one I came up with. It uses a Marty with an underdog baseball team. Yo would need to find a mediocre team with a favorable schedule. The underdog I for the positive money line where you can win more than 1 unit on a win. It still fails with the usual bankroll house limit problems, but it could work as long as the team you pick does lose too many game in a row.
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