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hinglemc
hinglemc
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August 12th, 2013 at 11:46:47 PM permalink
I do not dispute the reality or the relevance of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy


but within 7,500 rolls - does This fall within the bounds of normal possibility? --->


(14% chance of losing each roll, within my first/last session of 7,500 rolls I hit 4, then 3, then 5 consecutive losses)



thanks
thecesspit
thecesspit
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August 13th, 2013 at 12:05:46 AM permalink
You would expect around 3 sequences of 4 losses in a row in 7,500 trials.

14/100^4 = 0.00038416 = 1 in 2603 that any new sequence of 4 attempts will end up in 4 losses. We don't divide 7,500 by 4 to get the number of sequences, as we are looking for LLLL. Any W means the next spin is a new sequence. As we have 7500 spins, about 86% are new potential sequences of LLLL, so about 6,500 events... at 1 in 2603, we'll get 4 Losses about 2.5 times in 7,500 trials.

Falls in the bounds of possibility. You'll get a 5 in a row loss about half the time when you have 7,500 trials.

Numbers are estimates, there are better techniques to find the exact likelihood of a string of 4 in 7,500 trials.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
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